大约10年前，刘央被《南华早报》称为 “中国女巴菲特”，从而一举成名。事实上，刘央在过去10年可以说超越了被誉为“奥马哈先知”的巴菲特，尽管她的股票规模远远不如巴菲特偏爱的蓝筹股。刘央的看法是：我45岁，他80岁；我的年复合收益率是每年30%；他没达到；我的收益在过去15年翻了7倍；这是个奇迹吗？是的。
正如一位供职于竞争对手的基金经理所说：她表现过火了。说这句话时大概怀有钦佩之情。
刘央生于北京，父亲是知名经济学家。她在香港工作，管理西京中国基金（Atlantis China）。这是一只规模40亿美元的对冲基金，向香港当地人开放，涉及包括内地、香港、台湾和澳门在内的整个大中华区。她回忆说，2001年我曾说中国题材将成为独立的资产类别；大家都以为我在开玩笑。现在，有关中国的基金到处都是。
你是否接受她的推断取决于两点：第一，你相信中国政府能够控制通胀。第二，中国政府20多年来通过政策法令造就了强劲增长，它能够在不造成产能过剩的情况下继续这样做。中国的下一个五年规划强调的是消费型增长。
刘央承认，中国内地的通胀阻击战仍在继续，自2010年1月以来政府已经为此四次加息并10次提高银行准备金率。但她说，中国政府会赢得通胀之战并实现经济增长。
她对中国股市的看法是基于，目前中国股票在投资者现金充足之时估值较低，人民币不可避免会升值，以及那些她认为会成为中国蓝筹股的企业具有的吸引力。
尽管最近有所上涨，但中国股市的平均市盈率仅为16倍，远远不及标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）、除日本外的亚洲地区及中国股市以往表现，也远远低于2007年的高点。同时她说，面对增长预期和收紧信贷政策，人民币正在没有外部压力的情况下十分平静且自然的升值。
刘央预计，未来五年人民币兑美元至少升值20%。这使得香港这一离岸人民币贸易中心处于强有力的地位。香港已经成为全球最大的IPO市场，并有可能保持这样的地位。因为为了利用中国资本，更多企业将发行以人民币计价的股票。刘央预测，以人民币和港元计价的资产将腾飞。她推荐买入iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund（交易代码：EWH）。
刘央主要关注受惠于中国政府鼓励扩大内需政策的个股，她频繁交易并重仓在她看来有希望做大做强的小企业股票。她的目标之一是找到一些“非同寻常”的股票，这些股票最终能被纳入中国的一个基准指数。西京中国的投资组合大约60%的仓位集中在20家公司上。
刘央最喜欢的一只股票是三一重工（Sany Heavy Industry，SHA：600031），她将之称为“中国的卡特彼勒”。三一重工是中国最大的建筑、挖掘、采矿和水泥生产机械制造商，同时也制造风力涡轮机。三一重工目前正在进行海外扩张，但刘央认为其主要机会还在中国。该公司目前在中国A股上市，并计划发行H股。
刘央也特别青睐中国熔盛重工集团控股有限公司（China Rongsheng Heavy Industries Group，简称：熔盛重工，HKG：1101），熔盛重工是中国最大的造船企业，去年在香港上市。当时西京投资和中海油（CNOOC）以及中国人寿（China Life Insurance）一道是熔盛重工首次公开募股的最大投资者。而远大中国控股有限公司（Yuanda China Holdings，简称：远大中国）今年到港上市时，西京投资也将买入数量可观的股份。远大中国主要生产建筑外 、金属屋顶和天窗。
可能受益于中国政府扩大医疗支出的一家上市公司是山东的威高股份（HKG：1066），该公司是中国最大的医疗器械制造商。该公司和美敦力（Medtronic）成立了一家合资企业。刘央坚信这家合资企业未来两到三年的增长率将是中国GDP增速的两倍。
一个有争议的选择是购物商场运营商人和商业控股有限公司（Renhe Commercial Holdings，简称：人和商业，HKG：1387），该股今年成为做空力量的目标，因为空头预计为了扩张该公司将承担大量债务。但刘央认为这是一只潜力股。金融危机期间，人和商业将40%的利润用于支付股息。刘央还说，该股目前的市盈率只有六倍。
对于胆小的投资者来说，刘央选择的另一只股票中国建材（China National Building Materials，HKG：3323）也有很大的风险。中国建材的产品主要出口到美国。今年3月这只股票涨了近50%，利润则在以每年30%的速度增加。刘央说，这只股票你至少要持有两到三年。值得注意的是：该公司因与中国制造的有毒石膏板一案有关而在美国成为被告。这些有毒石膏板令数千套房屋无法居住。但该股的支持者指出，中国建材进行了多元化生产，现在制造包括太阳能玻璃和玻璃纤维在内的多种材料和部件。
Leslie P. Norton
（本文译自巴伦周刊）
http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20110512/inv082114.asp?source=channel
If you're a fan of Asian business TV, you're surely familiar with a figure with memorably frizzy hair and an intense, voluble manner: Yang Liu, commenting on China's bull market, last year's decline, current market prospects or just about any favorite topic, including herself.
Liu achieved notoriety some 10 years ago when the South China Morning Post dubbed her "the Warren Buffett of China." In fact, over the past decade, Liu arguably has out-Buffetted the Oracle of Omaha, although her stocks are much smaller than the blue chips he favors. Liu's take: "I'm 45 years old, he's 80. My compounded annual gross return is 30% a year. His isn't. My returns are seven times over the past 15 years. Is that a miracle? It is."
As one rival fund manager, perhaps admiringly, puts it: She's over the top.
"This coming 10 years is the golden age. You must own China." -- Yang Liu
Beijing-born Liu, daughter of a renowned economist, plies her trade in Hong Kong, overseeing Atlantis China. An over $4 billion hedge fund, open to locals, it ranges over Greater China, including the Mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macau. "In 2001," she recalls, "I said China would become its own independent asset class. Everyone thought I was making jokes." Now, China funds are common.
SHE THINKS THAT CHINA'S STOCK MARKET, which has rebounded after slumping last year, and is now wobbling slightly, will pause for a few months and then surge anew, driven by growth and earnings. "This coming 10 years is the golden age," says Liu. "You must own China." If you believe her and you're a huge investor, you're in luck: Liu soon plans to register a mutual fund in the U.S.
Whether you accept her premise depends on two things: First, that you trust that Beijing has a handle on inflation. And second, that China's government, which has produced strong growth by fiat for two decades, can keep doing it without creating overcapacity. The country's next five-year plan stresses growth led by consumption.
Liu concedes that the war on inflation is continuing in China, which has hiked official interest rates four times and boosted reserve requirements for banks 10 times since January 2010. But she argues that the mandarins will succeed in winning the inflation war and producing growth. Her case for Chinese stocks is built on their current cheap valuations at a time investors are awash in cash, the inevitable appreciation of China's currency and the allure of companies she thinks will become China's blue chips.
Despite its recent rally, China trades at 16 times earnings—a discount to the S&P 500, to non-Japan Asia and to its own history. Chinese shares also are well below their 2007 high. At the same time, she says, China's currency "is rising very quietly and naturally, without outside pressure," in response to growth prospects and a tight credit regime. Liu predicts the renminbi will climb at least 20% against the greenback over the next five years. That puts Hong Kong, the center of offshore renminbi trade, in a powerful position. It's become the world's biggest IPO market and is likely to remain so, as companies issue renminbi-denominated shares to tap Chinese capital. "Renminbi- and Hong Kong-dollar-denominated assets will fly," predicts Liu, who recommends buying iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund (ticker: EWH).
Liu is focusing on stocks that can capitalize on the Chinese government's plan to encourage domestic demand. She trades heavily and takes big positions in small companies that she hopes will grow much bigger. One of her goals: to find "something extraordinary," that eventually will be included in a benchmark Chinese index. Some 60% of the Atlantis China portfolio is in 20 companies.
One of her favorites is Sany Heavy Industry (600031. China), which she calls "China's Caterpillar." China's largest listed machinery manufacturer for construction, excavation, mining, and cement manufacturing, it also makes wind turbines. Sany is expanding abroad, but Liu thinks much of its potential is in China. Traded on the Mainland, it plans to issue Hong Kong shares.
Liu also likes China Rongsheng Heavy Industries Group (1101.Hong Kong), China's No. 1 shipbuilder, which came public last year; Atlantis was one of its largest investors at the initial public offering, along with CNOOC (CEO) and China Life Insurance (LFC). Atlantis also will have a sizable stake in Yuanda China Holdings, when it comes public in Hong Kong; Yuanda makes nonstructural outer walls, metal roofs, and skylights.
One company likely to benefit from Beijing's increased spending on health care is Shandong Weigao (1066.HongKong), China's largest medical-device maker. It has a joint venture with Medtronic (MDT) and, Liu contends, will "deliver double the growth of Chinese GDP over the next two to three years."
ONE CONTROVERSIAL CHOICE is shopping-mall operator Renhe Commercial Holdings (1387.Hong Kong), a target of short sellers this year on expectations that it would take on lots of debt to expand. Liu thinks it's worth a flyer. During the financial crisis, she says, Renhe paid out 40% of earnings in dividends. Meanwhile, she exclaims, "It's trading at six times earnings!"
Another pick not for the faint of heart is China National Building Materials (3323.Hong Kong), a major exporter to the U.S. The stock rose nearly 50% in March, and earnings are growing at a 30% clip. "This is one you must own for at least two to three years," says Liu. Caveat: The company is a defendant in U.S. court cases involving the toxic China-produced drywall that has made thousands of homes uninhabitable. Its fans point out, however, that it's diversified into other materials and components, including solar glass and fiberglass.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203653904576303082260414622.html
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