2012年10月31日

现任上海市委书记俞正声的父亲黄敬 母亲范瑾 为什么他却姓俞?

首先这个家族说起来是和曾国藩有关的,曾的孙女,嫁给浙江绍兴人俞明震,俞明震
何许人也?俞明震(1860-1918),字恪士,号孤庵,晚清知名于诗界、教育界、政界。甲
午战争时,曾协助唐景崧据守TW。俞明震还曾担任厘捐总局局长,甘肃省学台、藩台等
职。也曾是南京江南水师学堂督办,即校长。 俞明震著有《孤庵诗存》四卷,是清末著名的诗人。

1898年,俞明震的学生当中,有一个人在他的帮助下到了现在的riben北九州的东北大
学医学院(原来的仙台医学专科学校),这位学生命叫周树人。《鲁迅日记》中多次提到
"恪士师",就是俞明震。鲁迅还曾在《琐记》一文中,以亲切的笔致描述过后来送他出国留
学的"恩师",当然了,这只是这个家族有关的人当中的一个小小的插曲而已。


俞明震长子俞大纯(又名俞大线),俞大纯膝下四子两女。长子俞启孝生于北京,留
学美国,回国后在天津当教授;老二俞启信生于德国,专攻化学;老三即俞启威(化名黄
敬),生于北京,人称"三少爷";老四俞启忠,学农,从美国回国后在北京当教授。老
大,老二,老四兼娶了名门之后,唯有三少爷行为放荡不羁,家人也无奈。不想,一日三少
爷启威与一名叫李云鹤的山东女子结婚,后来这个女子改名叫江青。这也是俞家与青岛这
个城市关系的开始。

大姐俞珊,生于riben,演员。其夫就是赵太侔,北大、哥大出身,1932年杨振声走后
出任青岛大学校长,青岛30年代的文化辉煌,有天时地利人和之因素,而人和就是杨和
赵。江青就是他提拔的,江原名李云鹤,这个名字就是他起的。三少爷所以来青岛上学,也
是因为此,后来在青大和李云鹤同居。小妹俞瑾,一生从医。

还是说说三少爷俞启威吧,在青岛搞地下活动被捕,凭家族关系被释放,李云鹤去上
海居然成了影星。他后来化名黄敬,在北平搞学运,人们熟悉的一二九运动的照片中有一
个人在火车上演讲,就是他,他和姚依林经常在斯诺家开会。后来到延安才知道其前女友
已经是毛泽东的夫人江青了。俞启威也就是现在的中共中央政治局委员俞正声的老爸,是
解放后继黄克诚之后,为天津市首任文官市长和国务院第一机械部部,八届中央委
员。1958年,俞启威因积劳成疾,于11月去世,年仅46岁。

再说说老大俞大纯,有个妹妹嫁给陈三立,这个陈三立就是维新派主将陈宝箴的老
大,他有3个儿子,老大著名画家陈衡恪,老三的名字叫做陈寅恪。

俞明震共有三兄弟,他居长。

俞明震的三弟有个儿子,美国留学,后来到了TW发展,名字叫俞大维,想当初金门823
炮战,在岛上的两个一个是胡琏,另外一个人就是"国防部长"俞大维。看到这里可能有
人要问,胡琏是黄埔四期,当年一人独守夔门,与日军激战半月不退,50年代金门一
战,更是国军之中流砥柱,俞大维何德何能,反居胡琏之上?也许这就是家族的的原因吧………

…穷人家的孩子要成功总是要付出更大的心血的。闲话不多说,俞大维的儿子叫俞
杨,娶了个老婆名字叫蒋孝章,当然亲家翁就是蒋经国了。他们生了个儿子叫俞祖声(和俞
正声一辈的)。这是这个家族在TW的布局。

回过头来再说说俞明震的小姑的女儿。也就是曾国藩的曾孙女,她的名字叫曾宪
植,她的丈夫名叫叶剑英。什么邹家华、叶选平都是亲戚了。换句话说,俞正声的父亲俞启威
(黄敬)也得管叶帅叫姑父。

俞明震有三兄弟。他是长兄。他的小弟弟的长子俞大维,导弹专家。后来成为蒋介石
zf的国防部长、交通部长。俞大维和蒋经国是儿女亲家,即蒋经国女儿蒋孝章嫁给了俞
大维的儿子。俞大维之妹俞大彩,则是傅斯年夫人。傅斯年曾任北京大学代理校长。1950
年1月起,任TW大学校长。


俞明震的长子俞大纯,即俞启威之父。俞大纯曾留学riben、德国。归国后曾任北洋
军阀政府工艺局长、国民党zf交通部陇海铁路局局长等职。

俞明震的儿子俞大纯,有个妹妹嫁给陈三立,这个陈三立就是维新派主将陈宝箴的老
大,他有3个儿子,画家陈衡恪是老大,三子史学家陈寅恪更是大大有名,现在他的文
章,思想都抬的很高!

俞正声的母亲叫范瑾,曾任北京市委常委兼北京市副市长、《北京日报》社社
长,俞正声的舅舅是著名历史学家,中共第九届中央委员范文澜。

俞正声之妻张志凯,岳父并非外界所传的是前国防部长张爱萍,而是前国防科工委
副主任张震寰。俞正声与邓朴方的关系友好,他在80年代初期邓朴方请他出山担任"康华
"公司总经理(大概在80年代已经成年的中国人都知道康华公司的来历与背景),与邓家关
系非同寻常。邓小平原来准备安排他为中共中央书记处书记、中央统战部部长,利用其个
人关系去搞TW关系。但俞正声在92年十四大时意外落选中央委员,而原统战部长丁关根已
经改任宣传部长,不得不提拔王兆国任统战部长,而王兆国本缺台办主任又没有物色好
接班人,只能让王兆国再兼任两年台办主任。

1952年秋天,重工业部撤销,分别建立第一机械工业部、第二机械工业部、冶金工业
部等。汽车工业归一机部领导。一机部部长即是黄敬,一机部建立汽车工业管理局,张逢
时任局长。
1953年7月15日,位于长春的一汽举行奠基典礼,参加典礼的有东北人民zf第
一副主席林枫、第一机械工业部部长黄敬等。会上黄敬讲话,李岚青、王恩魁等六名年
轻共产党员,将刻有毛主席题词"第一汽车制造厂奠基纪念"的汉白玉基石,放置在厂区中
心广场基座上。可见对江总(在一汽干了8年)和李岚清这些老机械、老汽车来说,俞正声
的父亲黄敬一直是他们敬重的老领导。


综上所述,这个家族关系要是写一本书绝不为过。百忍问,
近现代中国史上,君见过如此复杂深厚的关系吗?囊括了蒋经国(蒋介石)、江青(毛泽东)、邓朴方(邓小
平)、江总、曾国藩、陈宝箴、陈寅恪、叶帅这些我们还不知深浅的交情。
这就是俞正声家族的关系。

俞正声简历

俞正声 中共中央政治局委员,中共上海市委书记。

男,汉族,1945年4月生,浙江绍兴人,1964年11月入党,1963年8月参加工作,哈尔滨军事工程学院导弹工程系弹道式导弹自动控制专业毕业,大学学历,工程师。

1963-1968年 哈尔滨军事工程学院导弹工程系弹道式导弹自动控制专业学习

1968-1971年 河北省张家口市无线电六厂技术员

1971-1975年 河北省张家口市桥西无线电厂技术员、负责人

1975-1981年 第四机械工业部电子技术推广应用研究所技术员、工程师

1981-1982年 第四机械工业部电子技术推广应用研究所副总工程师

1982-1984年 电子工业部电子技术推广应用研究所副所长、电子工业部计算机工业管理局系统二处处长、副总工程师兼微型机管理部主任、电子工业部计划司副司长

1984-1985年 中国残疾人福利基金会负责人、副理事长、党组成员(其间:1984年12月明确正司局级,1985年1月-3月康华实业公司代总经理)

1985-1987年 山东省烟台市委副书记

1987-1989年 山东省烟台市委副书记、市长

1989-1992年 山东省青岛市委副书记、副市长、市长

1992-1994年 山东省委常委、青岛市委书记、市长

1994-1997年 山东省委常委、青岛市委书记

1997-1998年 建设部党组书记、副部长

1998-2001年 建设部部长、党组书记

2001-2002年 湖北省委书记

2002-2003年 中央政治局委员,湖北省委书记、省人大常委会主任

2003-2007年 中央政治局委员,湖北省委书记(至2007年10月

2007年- 中央政治局委员,上海市委委员、常委、书记

第十四届中央候补委员,十五届、十六届、十七届中央委员,十六届、十七届中央政治局委员

源地址:http://blog.renren.com/GetEntry.do?id=484039780&owner=228078757


http://blog.renren.com/share/223370956/3034581666

http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-02/25/content_289242.htm  

2012年10月29日

投资大亨保尔森的买房经 John Paulson Doubles Down

冲基金经理约翰•保尔森(John Paulson)在2007年押对了次贷危机会引发房地产泡沫,大赚近40亿美元,令其声名大噪。

Splash News/Newscom
科罗拉多州阿斯彭
但之后,这位富豪投资者就有些失了准头,误判了房地产周期触底的时间。2010年在纽约的大学俱乐部(University Club)发表演讲时,保尔森说,“要是你现在没有房,那就买一套吧;要是你已经有了一套房,就再买一套;要是你已经拥有了两套,就买第三套,还可以把钱借给亲戚去买房。”但到目前为止,这个判断一直是错的:据一位知情人士透露,这位华尔街大亨由于赌早了经济复苏的时间,2011年个人账户上损失了大约30亿美元。

但是,在整个经济低迷时期,保尔森都没停止过他的买房行动。据熟悉他情况的人透露,保尔森的净资产估计约有110亿美元。公开资料显示,过去八年间,保尔森斥资超过1.45亿美元,购置了六处房产,其中两处位于纽约州南安普敦(Southampton),两处靠近科罗拉多州的阿斯彭(Aspen),另外两处位于他本人目前所居住的曼哈顿。(他后来在2009年作价1000万美元卖掉了在南安普敦的一处房产,此前一年他在附近购置了一处更大的房产。)

Splash News/Newscom
2010年,他斥资2450万美元买下了一套距阿斯彭市中心仅几分钟路程的房产。
公开资料还显示,今年六月,保尔森以总价4900万美元抢购到一个占地90英亩的阿斯彭牧场和毗邻的一处房产,是该地区最高的房产成交价之一。该资产的出让方是班达尔•本•苏丹亲王(Prince Bandar bin Sultan)。

从哈拉牧场(Hala Ranch)最后的成交价来看,保尔森是“捡了个便宜”:2006年它最早挂牌时的意向售价是1.35亿美元,成为当时全美挂牌出售房产中最贵的一处。在阿斯彭和南安普敦,保尔森都是先购置一处相对较便宜的房产,几年后再在附近以4000多万美元的价格购置更大面积的房产。

Pictometry
保尔森现年56岁,对媒体采取回避的态度,平时很少接受采访。(他拒绝就本文发表评论。)他在纽约州皇后郡(Queens)的一个中产阶级家庭长大,上了哈佛商学院(Harvard Business School)。他通过向亲朋好友筹款,加上自己的积蓄,最终以200万美元成立了基金公司保尔森公司(Paulson & Co.)。

保尔森本人在曼哈顿、南安普顿和阿斯彭各有一处住所。但他买房并不全是为了自住,同时也是基于对开发放缓和供应量减少将推动楼市复苏的判断。10月15日,保尔森公司旗下管理的基金收购了总部位于加州新港(Newport)的建筑商William Lyon Homes总价值相当于3000万美元的存量房。保尔森公司目前在佛罗里达州、亚利桑那州、内华达州、科罗拉多州和加利福尼亚州总计拥有约25000处房产,均是以“甩卖价”入的手。

去年夏天,大约在保尔森购入哈拉牧场的时候,他的办公室发表了一份声明说,保尔森直接或通过其旗下基金间接地“在美国各地拥有大量房产权益,包括在科罗拉多州、亚利桑那州、加利福尼亚州、内华达州、佛罗里达州以及夏威夷的一些房产。”虽然保尔森本人很少谈及他持有的资产,但这份声明还提到,“保尔森目前依然对美国各地的房产投资机会充满兴趣。”

美国各地一些熟悉保尔森名下房产信息的经纪人表示,其中有些房产(比如哈拉牧场)是美国投资最成功的房产之一,因为它们在这轮楼市低迷期中基本都没有贬值。在阿斯彭从业的经纪人莫林•斯台普顿(Maureen Stapleton)表示,保尔森支付的价格“不算贵”。她说,“他买的房产非常独特,占地面积很大,这么大面积的住宅在阿斯彭找不到第二处了。所以我认为从长远来看,它的价值肯定会很坚挺。”

至于如果保尔森明年将哈拉牧场转手卖出,能得到多少钱,经手这笔交易的房地产经纪人约书亚•萨斯洛夫(Joshua Saslove)不置可否。他说,“这种难得的房产就像苹果一样,不是用来买卖的,而是用来享用的。”

Lauren Schuker Blum

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


Hedge-fund manager John Paulson famously made nearly $4 billion in 2007 correctly betting that the housing bubble, fueled by the subprime mortgage market, would pop.

Then the billionaire investor somewhat reversed course, arguing that the housing cycle had hit a low point. 'If you don't own a home, buy one,' he said in a 2010 speech at the University Club in New York. 'If you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes, buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.' So far, that bet has been a loser: The Wall Street tycoon lost about $3 billion personally in 2011, according to people close to the hedge-fund manager, speculating that the economy would recover faster than it did.

But through the downturn Mr. Paulson -- whose net worth is estimated to be around $11 billion, according to people familiar with his situation -- continued his real estate spending spree. Over the last eight years, he has spent more than $145 million on six properties, including two estates in Southampton, N.Y., two properties near Aspen, Colo., and two residences in Manhattan, where he is based, according to public records. (He later sold one of the Southampton properties, for $10 million in 2009, a year after buying a larger estate nearby).

In June, Mr. Paulson snapped up a 90-acre Aspen ranch and an adjoining property from Prince Bandar bin Sultan for a total of $49 million, according to public records, one of the highest prices ever paid for property in the area.

The Aspen ranch was purchased at something of a discount: It was originally listed for $135 million in 2006, making it at that time the most expensive home for sale in the U.S. In both Aspen and Southampton, Mr. Paulson first bought a less expensive home before buying a larger estate nearby in the $40 million range a few years later.

Mr. Paulson, 56, studiously avoids the media, rarely granting interviews. (He declined to comment for this article.) He grew up in a middle-class family in Queens, N.Y., and went to Harvard Business School, eventually starting Paulson & Co. with $2 million he raised partially from family and friends, as well as some of his own money.

He personally occupies a residence each in Manhattan, Southampton and Aspen. He's not just investing in personal real estate, however, but also betting that the housing market will recover as development has slowed and supply diminishes. On Monday, funds managed by Paulson & Co. bought $30 million worth of stock in William Lyon Homes, a Newport, Calif.-based builder. Paulson & Co. now owns about 25,000 home sites in Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and California -- all acquired through distressed sales.

Last summer, Mr. Paulson's office released a statement around the time of his purchase of Hala Ranch saying that he has both directly and through his funds 'substantial real-estate interests across the United States, including other properties in Colorado, Arizona, California, Nevada and Florida and Hawaii.' Although he has rarely spoken about his holdings, the statement also said that 'Mr. Paulson continues to be interested in real-estate opportunities across the U.S.'

Brokers across the country familiar with Mr. Paulson's personal homes say that the purchases -- some of which, like Hala Ranch, are among the biggest trophy properties in the U.S. -- have mostly retained their value through the real-estate downturn. Maureen Stapleton, an Aspen broker, says that Mr. Paulson paid a 'fair price.' 'What he bought is very unique,' she says. 'It's a tremendous piece of property and the size of the home you just can't duplicate here in Aspen -- so I certainly think it will hold its value over the long term.'

As for what price Mr. Paulson would get if he flipped Hala Ranch next year, Joshua Saslove, the real-estate broker who sold Mr. Paulson the ranch, is mum. 'These kinds of trophy properties are like apples -- they're not for buying or selling. They're meant for eating.'

Lauren Schuker Blum

巴菲特喜爱的比亚迪成了烫手山芋? Has Warren Buffett's Chinese Winner Turned Into a Stinker?

伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)最喜爱的消遣或投资之一中国汽车和电池制造商比亚迪股份有限公司(BYD)周二上午股价暴跌,此前该公司发布了一份令人失望的收益报告。

Bloomberg News
在一度被视为巴菲特可能接班人的李路帮助下,这位“奥马哈先知”和比亚迪相识了。2008年,巴菲特向比亚迪投资。一开始,比亚迪成绩斐然,股价大涨了五倍多。

不过近来,发布屡屡令人失望的盈利数据对比亚迪来说似乎已成了稀松平常的事。今年刚入夏时,比亚迪的股价就曾在该公司发布了令人扫兴的财报后狂跌不止。

据巴菲特旗下伯克希尔•哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的备案资料显示,该公司曾以每股约1.03美元的价格收购了比亚迪2.25亿股股票,略低于后者全部股票数的10%。甚至在比亚迪在香港上市股票去年大跌64%后,巴菲特所持比亚迪股票的价值依然是他收购价的两倍多,约合4.67亿美元。

尽管如此,我们还是想知道,巴菲特是否后悔在今年春天伯克希尔•哈撒韦公司的年会上把比亚迪放在如此引人注目的位置上。该公司年会被称为“资本家的伍德斯托克音乐节”(Woodstock for Capitalists),而今年的年会主题是“飞机、火车和汽车”。

在年会的出席证、议程表和海报上都印有这样一个图案:一辆比亚迪产的汽车与巴菲特旗下飞机租赁公司NetJets的一架喷气式飞机以及巴菲特旗下铁路运营商BNSF的一列火车并肩而立。

Shira Ovide

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


One of Warren Buffett's favored playthings/investments, Chinese car-and-battery maker BYD, is getting crushed this morning after a disappointing earnings report.

Li Lu, the man once seen as possible successor to Buffett, helped introduce the Oracle of Omaha to BYD. Buffett invested in BYD in 2008, and it looked at first like a winner, climbing more than six-fold.

Lately, though, earnings disappointments seem to have become commonplace for BYD. Earlier this summer, BYD shares plunged after a disappointing earnings report.

Buffett's company bought 225 million shares of BYD, or just under 10% of the company's stock, at a price of about $1.03 a pop, according to Berkshire regulatory filings. Even after a 64% drop in BYD's stock price in Hong Kong in the last year, Buffett's stake in BYD is still worth more than twice what he paid, or about $467 million.

Still, we wonder if Buffett is regretting putting BYD in a favorable spotlight at this spring's annual meeting of Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. The theme of this year's Berkshire meeting, the Woodstock for Capitalists, was 'Planes, Trains and Automobiles.'

An image of a BYD-made car, along with a jet from Buffett-owned NetJets and a train from Buffett-owned railroad BNSF, were featured on ID badges, programs and placards.

Shira Ovide
本文涉及股票或公司
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Cl A
总部地点:美国
上市地点:纽约证交所
股票代码:BRKa
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Cl B
总部地点:美国
上市地点:纽约证交所
股票代码:BRKb
甲骨文公司
英文名称:Oracle co.
总部地点:美国
上市地点:纳斯达克
股票代码:ORCL

比亚迪三季度净利润锐减94%

中国电池和汽车生产商比亚迪股份有限公司(BYD Co., 1211.HK, 简称:比亚迪股份)周一表示,由于国内市场汽车需求持续低迷、手机销量减少以及太阳能电池业务遭受损失,公司第三季度净利润大幅下滑,并由此预计2012年净利润将下降至多98%。

截至9月30日的三个月,比亚迪股份实现净利润人民币460万元(合737,000美元),较上年同期的人民币7,737万元减少94%。

第三季度收入人民币105.3亿元,较上年同期减少10.7%。

今年前九个月,该公司净利润较上年同期的人民币3.527亿元下滑94%,至人民币2,088万元。该公司早些时候曾预计,今年前九个月净利润同比将下滑75%-95%。

巴菲特(Warren Buffett)旗下Berkshire Hathaway Inc.子公司MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co.持有比亚迪股份10%的股权。

比亚迪股份表示,2012年全年净利润可能较去年下滑至多98%,至人民币2,769万元,因汽车和手机业务疲软,并且太阳能业务出现损失也对盈利能力造成负面影响。

中国2009年超越美国成为全球最大的汽车市场。但自2010年年中政府开始取消购车补贴以来,中国市场汽车销量的增长开始放慢。北京和上海等城市采取的车辆限购措施也制约了汽车销量。

此外,中国与日本之间的领土争端对国内汽车市场造成了影响,9月份汽车销量出现了九个月来的首次下降。当月全国乘用车销量为132万辆,较上年同期下降0.3%。

虽然中日领土争议在一定程度上给国内汽车品牌带来了积极影响,但分析师们指出,比亚迪股份、吉利汽车控股有限公司(Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.)和长城汽车股份有限公司(Great Wall Motor Co.)等国内低端品牌厂商之间竞争的加剧可能会挤压它们的利润空间。

比亚迪股份表示,旗下汽车业务可能将受益于下半年推出的新车型,但国内市场业务将面临压力。该公司称,第三季度共销售汽车77,004辆,较上年同期下降18.1%。

比亚迪股份还表示,该公司在香港上市的子公司比亚迪电子(国际)有限公司(BYD Electronic (International) Co., 简称:比亚迪电子)将继续受到全球手机市场需求疲弱及主要客户经营业绩下滑的冲击。比亚迪电子的大部分收入来自诺基亚(Nokia Corp)和华为技术有限公司(Huawei Technologies Co.)等主要客户。

比亚迪股份另外发布公告称,吴经胜已辞任公司秘书,自10月29日起生效;董事会已委任李黔为公司秘书,自10月29日起生效。该公司未说明吴经胜辞职的原因。

Joanne Chiu

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)

中国人,你“性”福吗? The Shifting Terrain of Sex in China

代社会中,很少还有人类行为能像五千年前中华文明初露曙光时那样有研究价值了。性却是一个例外。一本刚刚出版的新书便是以此为主题,欲解密世界第一人口大国的床笫之欢乃至举国“性事”。

理查德•伯格(Richard Burger)的处女作《红门背后:性在中国》(Behind the Red Door: Sex in China)上个月由Earnshaw Books出版。这本书向我们展示了一个由阴阳平衡传统理念孕育出的文化是如何遭遇后起的像毛泽东、互联网这样的强大力量的影响的。伯格发现,就像其他很多事一样,中国的“性事”与西方的“性事”也有些不同。

Earnshaw Books
58岁的伯格现定居于美国凤凰城(Phoenix),他在中国最为人所知的是已经连续更新了十余年的博客“北京烤鸭”(Peking Duck)。本来,他只是打算做一个记录旅游见闻的博客,2003年非典疫情(SARS)爆发时北京方面的强硬反应促使他转而开始关注这个国家的政治与社会结构。

调查中国“性事”需要很大的工作量,它涉及到传统文化(儒家学说、纱罗帐、小妾)与现代社会(中共审查制度、网上交友、离婚侦探)的交织。伯格写道,“没有哪个社会经历过像中国这样的性剧变,从极端开放到道貌岸然,再到如今的暧昧气氛。”

在调查约会、结婚、同性恋、乱交等问题时,伯格征求了性学家和性服务提供者的意见。但《红门背后》并不是一本窥探隐私的书,它引用了大量文学资料,例如《红楼梦》(Dream of the Red Chamber);同时也引用了一些关键时点的新闻报道,例如1993年北京首家性用品商店开业,2003年木子美开出忏悔博客,2010年薄熙来责令重庆希尔顿酒店停业(薄熙来上个月因与多名女性发生或保持“不正当关系”等问题被开除党籍)。

在这本书中,性和欺骗是不变的主题,从300美元的处女膜修复手术,到大量男同性恋因为面子而与女人结婚,以及七种不同层次的卖淫──从二奶到小工棚。

伯格与《华尔街日报》记者聊了中国社会的性革命以及政府的反应等话题。以下是对话的节选。

Richard Burger
理查德•伯格
《华尔街日报》:你写这本书有什么缘由吗?

伯格:这与我以前做的事完全不同。我以前作为观察者,一直对中国的诸如卖淫、同性恋等现象非常感兴趣,就我所见,这里的性文化与西方截然不同。

如果去找中国从古至今关于性的书,你会发现能找到的尽是些白皮书、教科书之类的学术资料,所以我有了填补这个空白的想法。

《华尔街日报》:中国的性革命与西方有何不同?

伯格:西方的性革命包含在更广泛的人身自由革命的范围内,它形成了“做自己想做的事”和“造反有理”的氛围。中国的性革命在很大程度上仍由政府说了算,只能局限于此。它与人身自由、个人自由不太相关,只是对毛泽东时代及更早以前对性文化过度禁忌的一种放松。

《华尔街日报》:政府是如何影响性文化的?

伯格:我在引言中提到的热线电话就是一个很好的例子。这些提供性问题咨询的热线电话兴起于上个世纪九十年代中后期,你的反应可能是,“哦,有人打进这些热线电话来聊自己的性和感情生活。”据此,你也许会认为这是一种解放。但实际上,在电话那头的顾问都是政府工作人员,节目也是由政府发起的……其目的只是为了强化家庭观念。

《华尔街日报》:欺骗是整本书的一个重要话题吗?

伯格:是的,确实是这样,因为中国正处在对传统价值观(例如女子必须守身如玉直到洞房那一天)的纠结和挣扎之中。一边是保守的传统观念,一边是像西方一样的性开放观念,二者正相持不下。

女性与求爱的男性发生关系的情况更加普遍,但要结婚时,她们仍然需要证明自己还是处女。因此,她们不得不说谎,有的甚至离谱到去做处女膜修复手术。

《华尔街日报》:对于网上色情内容的审查有多严?

伯格:我认为有关方面对网上色情内容的处理就像“打鼹鼠”游戏一样。政府经常宣布严打,几年前宣称关掉了六万家色情网站,逮捕了5000名涉案人员,其中一人甚至被判无期徒刑。

《华尔街日报》:在性教育方面你有什么发现?

伯格:八十年代初期,性教育首次被纳入中学阶段的必修内容。但大部分老师(通常是生物老师)都过于拘谨了,在教的时候对这部分内容要么一带而过,要么完全跳过。

就算是教,他们也只会教些关于解剖学和生物学的知识。这样的教学完全不像性道德教育,只是在教生殖原理而已。

虽然有了很大进步,在性方面中国仍然很保守。我敢说,大多数中国父母根本不对孩子进行性教育。有的父母甚至哄骗孩子说,他们是从石头缝里蹦出来的,或者是在大街上捡来的。要讨论这个话题显得那么难。

《华尔街日报》:书中有一章叫做“大转变”(Shifting Landscape),什么在转变?

伯格:我从2003年广为人知的木子美的故事讲起,木子美在博客上发布性爱日记,以白描的记叙手法公开她的性爱细节以及性爱对象的姓名。她是因描写性受关注的第一人,为了性而性,为了享受而性爱,没有其他任何附加条件。事实上,她的博客很快就被封杀了。但她已经留下了无法抹去的痕迹。

她引起了关于女性角色的新讨论……女人不该对性行为有负罪感,而是应该尽情享受。

中国的性解放将迎来重大转变,但与西方所经历过的性革命相比,我想还是有很长的一段路要走,就像我说过的,旧观念和传统价值观对中国还很有影响。

《华尔街日报》:中国为什么有这么多性用品商店?

伯格:性用品商店无关下流也无关色情。它事关健康。

开设性用品商店的考虑与开通热线电话的道理是一样的,都是为了促进社会和谐。民众越“性”福,越有满足感,国家就越太平。要是很多人都过得不“性”福,公权力就更容易受到质疑。

James T. Areddy

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


Meet the people shaping life and culture in Asia. More from The Moment

Few human activities remain as ripe for study today as they did at the dawn of Chinese culture 5,000 or so years ago. But sex is one of them, and it's the focus of a new book that peeks into the bedrooms and brothels of the world's most populous nation.

Released last month, 'Behind the Red Door: Sex in China' (Earnshaw Books) examines how a culture born in concepts of yin-yang balance has fared against powerful forces like Mao Zedong and the Internet. Like many things in China, finds first-time author Richard Burger, sex is somehow different than in the West.

Mr. Burger, 58 years old and now based in Phoenix, is best known in China for his decade-old blog Peking Duck. Though he originally intended for it to serve as an online travelogue, Beijing's heavy-handed reaction to the 2003 SARS outbreak energized him to focus Peking Duck on the country's political and social structure.

It's a big job to survey sex in China, where aspects of ancient culture (Confucian doctrine, silk curtains, concubines) echo in modern society (Communist censorship, online dating, divorce detectives). 'No society has swung more dramatically from extreme sexual openness to prudish orthodoxy and then to the sexually ambiguous atmosphere we see at present,' writes Mr. Burger.

In probing dating, marriage, homosexuality and promiscuity, Mr. Burger tracks down sexologists and prostitutes for their input. But 'Behind the Red Door' isn't voyeuristic. Instead it draws on fabled sources like 'Dream of the Red Chamber' and news coverage of notable junctures, like Beijing's first sex shop in 1993, a confessional blog launched by a woman known as Muzimei in 2003 and the 2010 closure of Chongqing's Hilton during a crackdown by Bo Xilai (who last month was expelled from the Communist Party in part because of 'improper sexual relations' with multiple women).

Sex and deception emerge as a running theme in the book, whether it's $300 hymen reconstructions to fake virginity, the large percentage of gay men marrying women to save face, or the seven tiers of prostitution - from ernai ('second wife') to xiagongpeng ('down the work shack').

Mr. Burger spoke with the Journal about the Chinese sexual revolution and how the country is dealing with it. Below are edited excerpts from the conversation.

The Wall Street Journal: Why did you write this book?

Mr. Burger: This was totally different from anything I'd done in the past. I've been an observer and always been fascinated, for instance, with the phenomenon of prostitution in China, about gays in China, the sexual rituals that I saw that were very different from in the West.

If you look for books on the subject that offer us a survey from sex in ancient China to today, you'll find there's almost only the academic literature available, white papers, textbooks, so I thought this was a real opportunity to fill that gap.

How does China's sexual revolution differ from the West's?

The sexual revolution in the West was part of a much broader revolution for all sorts of personal freedoms. It became an atmosphere of 'do your own thing' and 'to rebel is good.' In China, the sexual revolution, it's on the government's terms to a large extent. You can only go so far. It's not so much personal freedom, individual freedom, than a relaxation of the taboos about sex that have ruled China from the time of Mao and even earlier.

How does the government influence sex culture?

A good example of this is the telephone hotlines that I mention in the introduction. These phone lines for sexual counsel, they started in the mid-, late-1990s, and you would think, 'OK, here are people calling in about sex and talking about their love lives.' And you might see this as liberating. But in fact, all of the counselors were government cadres, and the shows were sponsored by the government…it was all about strengthening the family.

Is dishonesty an important facet of the story?

It is, and it has to be, because China's in a tug-of-war against traditional Chinese values such as the wife being a virgin on her wedding night, a traditional Chinese belief. It's a tug-of-war between that and Western-style sexual openness.

Women are more frequently having sex with men who are demanding sex, but when it comes time to get married, they still have to prove that they're a virgin. They have to lie. They have to go to outrageous lengths, such as having a hymenoplasty operation.

How actively is pornography censored online?

I equate what they are trying to do on the Internet in terms of pornography as a game of whack-a-mole. They are always announcing these big stings. A couple of years ago the government announced they had shut down 60,000 porn sites and arrested 5,000 of the operators. One of them was even sentenced to life in prison.

What did you find about sex education?

In the early 1980s, sex education became mandatory for the first time. It had to be taught in the high schools. Most teachers are so squeamish that they either zip through it - these are biology teachers usually - they just hurry through it, or they skip it altogether.

What they do teach, when they do teach it, is about anatomy and biology. There's nothing about sexual morality. It's just taught as how reproduction works.

China remains, for all the advances, very uptight about sex. And most Chinese parents, I would say, don't teach their kids about sex at all. And some will even tell them that they found them under a rock or on the street somewhere. It's such a sticky subject.

One chapter is called 'Shifting Landscape.' What's shifting?

I start it off with the well-known story of Muzimei in 2003 writing her tell-all blog where she names names and described what they did in graphic terms. She was the first to gain attention who wrote about about sex, just for the sake of sex, and the joys of personal satisfaction with no strings attached. In fact, the government soon shut it down. But she had left an indelible mark.

She generated a new conversation about the role of women…that a woman shouldn't feel guilty about having sex and that she should savor it.

We're seeing a decided shift toward sexual liberation, but I think it's going to be a long hard slog before we see anything comparable to what we saw in the West, simply because, as we've said, traditional Chinese beliefs and values are playing a tug-of-war.

Why does China have so many sex shops?

The sex shops aren't about lewdness or about pornography. They're about health.

The thinking is just like the hotlines that a sexually satisfied population, a more contented population adds to the nation's harmony. If you don't have a sexually satisfied population, they're more likely to question authority.

James T. Areddy

2012年10月25日

张维迎:中国的反凯恩斯斗士 Zhang Weiying: China's Anti-Keynesian Insurgent

空没有被烟雾所遮蔽,中国最知名的经济学家之一张维迎心情乐观,同时具备这两点的下午在中国首都北京并不多见。在中国共产党即将进行10年一次的领导层换届、并将对其曾经前途大好的人物薄熙来提出刑事指控之际,中国经济正在遭遇麻烦。心存忧虑的投资者希望看到北京依然致力于"保增长"的迹象,而他们最乐于见到的迹象是一场凯恩斯主义的大规模经济刺激。

张维迎认为,根本不必惊慌。他边喝茶边平静地说,中国经济增速放缓实际上是好消息,这会让政府认识到中国需要改变,即放弃靠政府注资来促进经济发展的老路,走上改革之路。他坚称,中国人并不都是凯恩斯主义者。

三年前,凯恩斯理论是中国的官方政策。2008年那场金融危机曾让中国幸灾乐祸于信奉自由市场的"华盛顿共识"遭遇失败,并使得中国得以对外吹嘘其以政府干预为特色的"中国模式"。凯恩斯理论颇对计划经济追捧者的胃口,而中国当时正好遭遇了出口大幅滑坡,所以政府将折合3.5万亿美元(大约相当于国内生产总值50%)的银行贷款和政府直接支出投入了经济体系。

张维迎在学术界的同行们当时都对"中国模式"赞誉有加,但他却在2009年发表了题为《彻底埋葬凯恩斯主义》的演讲。张维迎当时任北京大学光华管理学院的院长,他目前仍然在这所学院教授经济学。张维迎在演讲中称,由于2008年这场金融危机是由低成本资金引发的,所以不可能用可以廉价得到的资金来解决。他说,现在的经济就像一个吸毒病人,医生却给吸毒病人开的药方是吗啡,最后的结果可能会使问题更严重。

他引用诺贝尔经济学奖得主哈耶克(Friedrich Hayek)和奥地利学派的观点提出,如果不允许中国经济按其自身规律进行调整,那么中国经济中小的泡沫破裂之后就会发生大泡沫的破裂。他还建议废除各种导致经济发生扭曲的现行做法,比如国有企业在许多产业中享有的垄断地位。

Zina Saunders
张维迎发表上述演讲的那段时间也正是中国迅速成为世界第二大经济体的日子(2010年的某个季度中国经济较上年同期增长了11%),所以中国的主政者没有兴趣去听他这些话。张维迎说,当我批评中央政府的刺激政策时,许多高级官员感到不高兴。张维迎去年在于中国召开的世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)年会上还说,中国权力巨大的国家发展和改革委员会是"一群聪明人在做一件非常愚蠢的事"。这或许更令中国官员不满。

最终,北京的经济刺激措施对一场人为的投资热潮起了推波助澜的作用,这股投资热使资产泡沫更加严重,此后由于政府收紧经济政策,吗啡产生的刺激作用逐渐消失。官员们称,中国经济今年第二季度较上年同期增长了7.6%。但对这一数字持怀疑态度的人认为,实际的经济增长率更接近4%。(伦敦一家研究机构认为经济增幅是1%。)与此同时,钢铁和太阳能发电等国家主导或鼓励发展的产业则因产能过剩而举步维艰。有报道说,有数不清的铜板被堆放在库房里,这些多得把仓库大门都堵上了的库存产品生动体现了哈耶克所说"不正当投资"造成的恶果。

换句话说,中国的经济刺激措施反证了张维迎所推崇的奥地利学派的正确。这些措施的巨大失败忽然之间引发了世人对奥地利学派理论的关注。张维迎说,凯恩斯式的政策并没有产生它所许诺的结果,因此越来越多的人意识到,当政府向那些无用的项目投入资金时,经济衰退就会到来。

如今,中国官员已不再像对待被放逐者一样对待张维迎。他说农业部官员告诉他,他们喜欢看他写的文章。其他部委以及包括河南和辽宁省在内的地方政府则邀请他发表演讲。他说最近写了一篇赞扬已故奥地利学派经济学家罗斯巴德(Murray Rothbard)的文章后,上海市委书记告诉他自己喜欢这篇文章。

对奥地利学派的同情是否能感染中国政府高层官员?上个月,中国国务院总理温家宝称刺激措施是对经济危机的合理反应,并试图驳斥中国为此付出过高代价的指控。温家宝的话听来像是面对那些读过哈耶克或张维迎著作的内部挑战人士时不得不进行的辩护。

张维迎直到2008年才开始认同奥地利学派的主张。当年他在芝加哥的一场经济学会议上发表了一篇论文,有人对他说他的观点听来就像是哈耶克的信徒。张维迎说他的观点一直如此。

52岁的张维迎出生在中国陕西省的农村。在一个中共官员和"虎妈"争相给年轻人"洗脑"的国家,张维迎有幸躲过了这样的双重打击。

张维迎说,农村地区在很大程度上没有受到中共意识形态的"污染"。他说我的父母没有文化,我开始上学后他们并不理解我从学校带回家的那些"理念",也就是说他们从来没有干预过我的想法。

从他在陕西念经济学研究生开始,张维迎就在规划自己的人生。1983年他在报纸上写了一篇文章,为赚钱正名。因为这项"罪名",当时力量仍然非常强大的反资本主义阵营的批评人士对他进行了严厉抨击。那时他甚至存在毕业后无法拿到学位的危险。但"幸运的是,中国的政治气候在很短的时间内发生了转变"。

在20世纪80年代中期,在中共领导人邓小平的领导下,中国官员开始开放经济。但有时他们也会毫无头绪。张维迎说,经过几十年的计划经济,所有商品的价格都被扭曲。政府的解决办法是建立一个有大型计算机的价格研究中心,根据计算机的运算结果调整价格。当然,他们不会得到任何结果。

这给了张维迎首个脱颍而出的机会。在他的硕士论文中,张维迎提出了这样一种假设,即是否可能在政府管控的一套价格体系之外保留另一套由市场机制发挥调控作用的价格体系,这样各行业能逐渐从第一套价格体系过渡到第二套。在1984年的一次会议上,张维迎以这一"双轨制"理论给当时的决策者留下深刻印象。他们采纳了这一建议并让张维迎到当时的国家经济体制改革委员会去工作。但正是这份工作令他失去了对制定政策的兴趣。张维迎说,政府官员不爱"惹事",决策是一个政治过程,是一种妥协。

为了找到一个不需妥协的世界,他去牛津大学(Oxford University)留学,并在那里获得了经济学博士学位。1994年回国之际,他与人合作创办了北京大学中国经济研究中心(China Center for Economic Research)。北京大学是中国资历最老的现代高等学府之一。

张维迎说,相比政策研究,他更喜欢学术性的观点的自由市场。但即使是在学术界,张维迎也显得卓尔不群。和中国那些改革派经济学家不同(这些人将自己视作削弱中央集权的技术官僚),张维迎的思想有着鲜明的道德烙印。在今年的一次讲话中,他援引亚里士多德(Aristotle)和阿奎那(Thomas Aquinas)的话指出,世间存在一种叫"自然法"的东西,且产权的重要性在主权之前。

这种追求成功的自由带来的另一面是要能够忍受失败,而这正是张维迎和哈耶克存在交集的地方。即使是中央银行试图操纵需求的做法也会引起奥地利学派的反感,因为就像张维迎所说的那样,当你犯错时,你必须承担责任。

张维迎说,如果你今天经受痛苦,那么这还只是小痛苦,但如果你今天不经受这种痛苦,将来你会有更大的痛苦;让公众知道这个真理是经济学家或学者应该做的事情。

中国领导人也应该做这件事。张维迎兴奋地谈起了上世纪90年代末发生的亚洲金融危机。这场危机促使中共开始了国有企业的私有化进程,虽然这导致2,000万国企员工下岗。张维迎说,这场危机击垮了印尼和其它一些国家,而中国领导人则在当时吸取了危机带来的教训,这就是必须抛弃裙带资本主义和臃肿的政府机构。

在当时,张维迎代表了知识界的潮流。张维迎是国有媒体中央电视台(CCTV)评选的2002年度经济人物,他记得当时在北京大学,整个校园的文化都是以改革为导向的。那一年他被任命为北京大学的校长助理,后来被任命为光华管理学院院长,在学院任职期间,他极力推动改革。

这些改革是成功的,但是改革者却受到了迫害。教师中的保守派提出抗议,网上到处都是质疑张维迎的忠诚、怀疑其学历的声音。2010年,他在光华管理学院被免职。

大多数的麻烦源于学校内的政治,但张维迎同时表示,当时的大环境变了。中国的大学是计划经济的产物,所以,"如果全国都在改革的良好进程中,像我这样的人不会受到这样的待遇。"

发生了什么?2002年上台的胡锦涛和温家宝领导团队逆转了改革进程。日益严重的的社会不公成为了公营部门受到偏爱的最初借口,有人认为,是高增长率让决策者很快决定继续走这条道路。北京新的流行说法是"国进民退",国有经济向前发展,私营领域向后退却。

当金融危机来袭时,中国政府抓住这一机会将国有经济进一步做大。这一做法导致的糟糕经济后果现在已清清楚楚摆在那里,但是张维迎说,过去的10年也发生了引人注目的社会问题,这些问题促成了舆论环境的改变。中国人看到官员们把资源分配给国有企业和自己的朋友,公众对腐败和不公平的认知开始增长,他说,中国政府面对的绝不是市场危机,而是国家危机。

这就是张维迎希望推进改革的原因。他主张重启私有化进程,他说,现在实施私有化会更容易,因为一些公司已经在交易所上市。下一步是对金融系统进行全面改革,因为国有企业正在把银行当做自动取款机,让企业家们失去了从正规渠道获得融资的机会。

我们能否期待11月中旬中国新一届领导班子上台后,这样的自由化进程会立即发生?张维迎说,最高决策机构席位的竞争者之一、广东省委书记汪洋,是一个"真正的改革者"。但是在其他方面,他承认中国的政治完全是难以捉摸的。

北京有可能再次求助于刺激计划来提振GDP吗?张维迎说,毫无疑问情况有可能变得更糟,但也有可能出现良好机会。他可以确信的是,人们的思维方式已经改变。只是在中国的非民主体制下,"这种影响是含蓄而不是明确表现出来的。"

张维迎感到乐观,因为他认为30年的改革开放已经改变了人们的预期。他说,我们现在对市场充满信任,这就是为什么过去10年的反市场动向激怒了人们。清华大学(Tsinghua University)整理编纂的政府数据显示,反对政府征地和其他以强权侵害百姓利益行为的群体性事件每年有18万起。这些群体事件让中共难以回避,也为自由市场提供了道义上的依据。

张维迎说,人类永远在寻找幸福。现在有两种方式。你牺牲他人幸福来换取自己的幸福,我把这叫做强盗逻辑。另一种方式是,你通过使他人幸福来让自己得到幸福,这是市场逻辑。你更喜欢哪一种?

(Bhattacharya是《华尔街日报》亚洲版的评论版撰稿人)

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


ABHEEK BHATTACHARYA

It's a rare afternoon in the Chinese capital when smog hasn't blocked the skies, and one of China's most famous economists is in a sanguine mood. The economy is in trouble as the Communist Party heads for a once-in-a-decade transfer of power while prosecuting its former golden boy, Bo Xilai, on criminal charges. Worried investors want signs that Beijing remains committed to growth-and the sign they'd most like to see is a big Keynesian stimulus.

Zhang Weiying would say that they're wrong to panic. The economic slowdown, he calmly says over tea, is actually good news that 'makes the government think we need to change'-toward reform and away from priming the pump. We aren't all Keynesians now in China, he insists.

Three years ago, Keynesianism was official policy. The 2008 financial crisis had Beijing gloating over the failure of the free-market 'Washington Consensus' and touting the 'China Model' of government intervention. Keynesianism fit the statist zeitgeist and Beijing then suffered an export slump, so the government allocated $3.5 trillion-or about 50% of gross domestic product-in bank loans and direct spending.

Mr. Zhang's academic colleagues were all praise for the 'China Model,' but in 2009 he was giving speeches entitled 'Bury Keynesianism.' Then a top administrator at Peking University, where he now teaches economics, he argued that since the financial crisis was caused by easy money, it couldn't be solved by the same. 'The current economy is like a drug addict, and the prescription from the doctor is morphine, so the final result will be much worse,' he said.

He invoked the ideas of the late Nobel laureate Friedrich Hayek and the Austrian School of Economics to argue that if the economy weren't allowed to adjust on its own, China's minor bust would be followed by a bigger one. He also advocated doing away with existing distortions such as the monopolies enjoyed in many industries by state-owned enterprises.

Those were the days when China was fast becoming the world's second-largest economy (growth in one 2010 quarter crossed 11% on an annual basis), so the establishment was in no mood to listen. 'When I criticized the central government's stimulus policy, many senior officials were not happy,' Mr. Zhang says. It might not have helped that at last year's World Economic Forum in China he called the government's powerful National Development and Reform Commission 'a bunch of smart people doing something really stupid.'

Ultimately, Beijing's stimulus fed a false investment boom that stoked asset bubbles-then the morphine wore off while the government tightened. Officials claim the economy grew at 7.6% year-on-year between April and June this year. Skeptics think the real number is closer to 4%. (One London research house says 1%.) Meanwhile, industries dominated or favored by the state, such as steel or solar power, are idling from overcapacity. Countless sheets of copper are reportedly stacked in warehouses, blocking doorways and exemplifying Hayek's notion of 'malinvestment.'

In other words, the stimulus was a poster child for Mr. Zhang's Austrian theories. And the sheer size of the failure suddenly has people paying attention. 'The Keynesian policy didn't deliver what it promised,' he says, so 'more and more people realize that . . . when the government makes investment [in] something that's useless, recession will come.'

Chinese officials no longer treat Mr. Zhang as a pariah. He reports that Ministry of Agriculture officials tell him they enjoy reading his articles. Other ministries and local governments, including in Henan and Liaoning provinces, invite him to speak. He says that when he recently wrote an article praising the late Austrian economist Murray Rothbard, the Communist Party secretary of Shanghai-a fairly high-level apparatchik-told him he liked it.

Could Austrian sympathies be percolating right to the top of Chinese officialdom? Last month, Premier Wen Jiabao called the stimulus a 'scientific response' to the crisis and tried to refute the charge that the country 'paid an undue price' for it. He sounded like someone forced to defend against internal challengers who had been reading Hayek-or Zhang Weiying.

Mr. Zhang didn't identify with the Austrian school until 2008, when he presented a paper at an economics conference in Chicago and someone told him he sounded like a Hayek acolyte. He says he'd always thought this way.

The 52-year-old was born in rural Shaanxi province in north-central China. In a country where party officials and tiger mothers compete to brainwash youth, he escaped both.

'Rural areas were not so polluted by [party] ideology,' he says. 'My parents were illiterate,' he adds, and once he began his education, they couldn't understand the ideas he brought home from school. 'That means they never interfered.'

Mr. Zhang has been charting his own way since he was a graduate student in economics in Shaanxi. He wrote a newspaper article in 1983 arguing that money wasn't evil. For that crime, critics from the still-powerful anticapitalist camp tore into him. There was a danger he wouldn't be able to graduate with a degree, but 'thankfully, China's political climate changed in a very short time.'

In the mid-1980s, under party leader Deng Xiaoping, officials were moving to liberalize the economy. Yet they were sometimes clueless. After decades of a planned economy, says Mr. Zhang, 'the price [of everything] was distorted' and the government's solution was to 'set up a price research center with a big computer . . . and adjust prices according to this calculation.' Of course, 'they couldn't get any results.'

This gave Mr. Zhang his first break. In his graduate thesis, he considered the possibility of having one price system remain government-controlled and leaving another to the market, with industries moving slowly from the first track to the second. He impressed policy makers with the idea at a 1984 conference, and they adopted it, giving Mr. Zhang a job with the State Commission for Reforming the Economic System. The stint turned him off from policy-making. Bureaucrats rarely 'rock the boat,' he says. 'Making policy is a political process . . . a compromise.'

Looking for a world where he didn't have to compromise, he went to Oxford, where he studied for an economics doctorate. On returning to China in 1994, he co-founded the China Center for Economic Research at Peking University, the country's oldest modern institution of higher learning.

Mr. Zhang says he prefers the academic marketplace of ideas rather than policies, but he stands out there too. Unlike the Chinese tribe of reformer-economists who see themselves as technocrats chipping away at statism, Mr. Zhang thinks in stark moral terms. In a speech this year, he invoked Aristotle and Thomas Aquinas to argue that there is such a thing as natural law and that the right to property is 'passed prior to sovereignty.'

The flip side of this freedom to pursue success is being able to stomach failure, which is where Mr. Zhang's affinity for Hayek ties in. Austrians frown even on central banks trying to manipulate demand because, as Mr. Zhang tells it, 'when you make a mistake, you must take responsibility.'

'If you suffer today, it's a small suffering. But if you don't have that suffering today,' tomorrow 'you'll have a big suffering.' Letting people know that truth, he says, 'is what an economist or scholar should do.'

Leaders should do this too, and he talks excitedly about the late 1990s, when the Asian economic crisis spurred the party to privatize state companies, even if it left 20 million unemployed. The crisis had brought Indonesia and others to their knees, says Mr. Zhang, and China's leaders understood at the time that 'the lesson was not to have crony capitalism' and a bloated public sector.

Back then, the intellectual tide was going in Mr. Zhang's direction. State-controlled CCTV proclaimed him 'Economist of the Year' in 2002, and he remembers that at Peking University 'the whole culture was reform-oriented too.' He was appointed assistant president of the university that year and later dean of the Guanghua School of Management, where he pushed reform.

The reforms proved successful, but the reformer was crucified. The old guard in the faculty lounges revolted, while accusations impugning Mr. Zhang's loyalty and questioning his credentials swirled over the Internet. He was forced out of his Guanghua post in 2010.

Much of the trouble stemmed from internal campus politics, but he also says that the broader 'environment changed.' China's universities are a product of a planned economy, so 'if the whole country [was] in the good process of reform, people like me won't be treated like that.'

What happened? China's leadership team of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, in place since 2002, reversed reforms. Rising inequality was the original excuse for favoring the public sector and, one suspects, high growth soon convinced policy makers to continue on that path. The new mantra in Beijing was 'guo jin, min tui'-the state advances, the private sector retreats.

When the financial crisis struck Beijing jumped at the chance to advance the state even further. The poor economic result is now front and center, but Mr. Zhang says the past decade has also seen dramatic social problems that help alter the climate of opinion. The Chinese people have watched bureaucrats distribute resources to state companies and their friends, and popular perceptions of corruption and inequality have grown. Far from a crisis of markets, he says, Beijing is facing a crisis of state.

That is why Mr. Zhang is hopeful for reforms. He proposes restarting privatization, which he says is easier to do now because 'some of these companies are listed on exchanges.' Overhauling the financial system is next, since state companies use the banks as ATMs and deprive entrepreneurs of formal loans.

Can we expect such a liberalization right after the new crop of leaders is anointed in mid-November? He says that Guangdong Party Secretary Wang Yang, a contender for the top decision-making body, is a 'real reformer.' But otherwise he admits that Chinese politics is a black box.

Is there a possibility that Beijing will turn to another stimulus to goose GDP? 'Certainly things could go worse. But there could also be good opportunity,' he says. What he does know is that people's way of thinking has changed. It's just that the 'impact is implicit, not explicit' in China's nondemocracy.

Mr. Zhang is optimistic because he thinks 30 years of openness have altered expectations. 'We have a lot of trust in' markets today, which is why the last decade's anti-market turn has exasperated people. Mass protests against land grabs and other government bullying now number 180,000 a year, according to government data compiled at Beijing's Tsinghua University. These protests are hard for the party to ignore-and powerfully make the moral case for free markets.

'We human beings always seek happiness,' says Mr. Zhang. 'Now there are two ways. You make yourself happy by making other people unhappy-I call that the logic of robbery. The other way, you make yourself happy by making other people happy-that's the logic of the market. Which way do you prefer?'

2012年10月22日

中国新领导班子的经济抉择 China Faces Tough Choice On Growth

Reuters
收入不公已经成为中国经济增长失衡的原因之一。图为安徽省合肥市,一名妇女在废墟中用丁字镐寻找可利用的材料。

国经济增长乏力的最新证据凸显出,即将上任的领导人面临一个艰难选择:是在一个已被榨干的增长模式上继续加码,还是冒着较高的政治风险赌一把、推进短时间内可能加剧增长放缓的改革?

他们面临的挑战在于,收入差距迅速扩大已经成为中国经济增长失常的原因之一,要通过解决这个问题,让消费者的钱包鼓起来。对于一个共产党领导的政府来说,这不是一般的挑战。

据周四发布的数据,第三季度中国国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长7.4%。这是2009年年初以来最低的增长率,也是连续第七个季度增幅下降。不过,一些企稳迹象使那些期待中国经济“软着陆”的人们受到鼓舞,毕竟中国经济对世界经济的健康已经变得越发重要。9月份工业产值、出口和投资都略有增加,就业状况也保持强劲。

这为北京提出了一个问题:是采用惯用手段提振经济?还是通过更加重视国内家庭支出、减少对投资和出口的依赖,使中国进入一条可持续的增长轨道?

下调利率、增加投资等传统刺激手段有可能加剧经济失衡,因为这些手段在增加投资回报的同时,其代价是抑制工资水平和家庭支出。

要扩大中国经济增长带来的福利,就得挑战某些强大的利益集团:利用征地获益的地方官员,和以低福利投入为代价享受低税率的国有企业。这样一场赌博的赢家将是中低收入家庭,作为未来经济增长的源泉,他们被寄托了越来越大的期望。

克莱蒙特•麦肯纳学院(Claremont McKenna College)中国问题专家裴敏欣说,改革国有企业、加强其商业性最多有可能牺牲掉400万个就业岗位,因为企业要缩减规模、剥除政治任务并不再接受补贴。裴敏欣说,这不是私有化,而是去党化。


过去10年中国各个阶层的收入都有增加,但政治精英获得了不成比例的利益,因为体制让最接近权力核心的人暴富。

问题在于对精英有利的不再对整个中国有利:很久以来大家都在说中国要转变增长模式、提高对国内消费的依赖,然而贫富差距的扩大阻碍着这个目标的实现。

国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)首席经济学家布兰查德(Olivier Blanchard)说,要搞大刀阔斧的改革,就得着手进行收入的再分配。

对不公平现象的担忧正在变得越发普遍。皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)2012年对3,177名中国人的调查显示,48%的被调查者认为贫富差距是一个非常严重的问题,相比之下,2008年的这一比例是41%。

解决社会不公的问题需要政府采取的措施包括,保护农民的地权,以便让土地成为可供农民出售和开发的有价值的资产;让城市外来务工人员拥有城市户籍;打击某些精英阶层借以致富的腐败行为。这些都需要向强大的既得利益集团发起挑战。

当前这一届中国政府长期以来一直承诺强化农民的地权。而地方政府通过销售当地从农民手中廉价购买的土地为当地主要官员和房地产公司谋取了巨额利益。

根据美国农村发展研究所(Landesa Rural Development Institute)2011年对1,791名农民的调查,当地有关部门每征收一英亩土地,农民平均可以获得17,850美元的赔偿,而这个金额仅仅是每英亩土地市场价值(740,000美元)的2.4%。

中国1.68亿外来务工人员在城市中从事着建设、清洁和服务的工作,但是几乎没有人可以获得在城市永久定居的机会。这是因为中国的城市户籍制度十分僵化,外来务工人员和家人无法享受城市的医疗、教育和福利等服务,城市的政府把外来务工人员看作是廉价劳动力的来源,而不是城市人口的一部分。

缩小收入差距将需要政府采取措施打击腐败。在国家主导的经济体内,官员控制著有价值资产为腐败行为提供了大量机会。

根据透明国际(Transparency International)的数据,中国的腐败程度在全球排名第75,略高于哥伦比亚。中国经济改革研究基金会(China Reform Foundation)的经济学家王小鲁2008年从事的一项研究显示,中国最富的10%的城市家庭的年均可支配收入为13.9万元,比官方数据高出两倍。王小鲁写道,数据出现差异的主要原因是由于滥用权力取得的灰色收入,灰色收入与腐败问题密切相关。

一些分析人士对王小鲁的调查结果提出了批评,认为调查使用的样本不具有代表性。

百度(Baidu)贴吧的一个在线论坛讨论了收入差距的问题,最近有一条评论说,你的希望越大,失望就越大,贫富差距正在加剧,富人买豪车豪宅,穷人连租房都租不起,这就是中国的现实。

中国国家主席胡锦涛和总理温家宝将在11月召开的中国共产党第18次代表大会上卸任。他们曾承诺建立一个更加和谐的社会。但是,提高投资回报以及压低工资水平的政策也使收入差距保持在较高水平。中国的GDP中消费的占比从2002年的44%降到了2011年的34%。

麦肯锡全球研究所(McKinsey Global Institute)指出,无论是在19世纪的美国,还是亚洲四小龙在各自快速增长的年份,消费占比从来没有下降到如此低的水平。消费在美国GDP中的占比约为70%。

改革的负担将落在他们的继任者──现任副主席习近平和副总理李克强──身上。

但是,不要指望中国新的领导人会快速行动。一名前美国官员说,中国央行行长周小川私下里已经告诉西方官员,中国至少要到2013年秋天才能拿出一揽子改革计划。北京的私募股权投资公司春华资本集团(Primavera Capital Group)董事长胡祖六说,为了让交接班顺利进行,李克强和习近平可能需要保持低调。

如果出现改革,较低和中等收入家庭将会是受益者,但这些人在决策过程中几乎没有发言权。但是不改革造成的增长放缓和政治动荡的代价将会很高。

斯坦福大学(Stanford University)的中国经济专家罗思高(Scott Rozelle)说,日本经济在发展到一定水平之后,经济增速也出现了放缓,社会不公的水平非常低,这为日本失去的10年提供了一个稳定的基础;如果未来20年中国经济遵循过去10年同样的轨迹,作为世界上收入不公最严重的国家之一,中国经济可能面临着零增长的风险。

TOM ORLIK/BOB DAVIS

(更新完成)

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


China's latest evidence of sputtering growth underlines a dilemma for its incoming leaders: They can shore up the economy by doubling down on an exhausted growth model, or take a risky political bet on reforms that could worsen the slowdown in the short term.

The challenge─an unusual one for a Communist government─is to put more money in the pockets of its consumers by tackling the burgeoning inequality in income, which has contributed to pushing China's growth off kilter.

The 7.4% year-on-year rise in China's gross domestic product in the third quarter, reported Thursday, was the weakest growth rate since the start of 2009 and the seventh straight quarter of decline. Nevertheless, those hoping for a 'soft landing' in China, ever-more important for the health of the global economy, took heart from some signs of stabilization. Industrial output, exports and investment all crept up in September. Employment has also stayed strong.

That raises the question for Beijing of whether to use its usual levers to pump up the economy, or to try to put China on a sustainable growth path by focusing more on spending by domestic households and less on investment and exports.

The traditional methods of kick-starting growth─cutting interest rates and boosting investment─would risk exacerbating economic imbalances, increasing investment returns at the expense of salaries and spending money for households.

Spreading the gains from China's growth means challenging some of the most powerful groups in the country's body politic: local officials who benefit when their governments flip land bought on the cheap from farmers, and state-owned enterprises whose low taxes translate into less money for welfare programs. The winners in such a gamble would be China's lower and middle-income households, which are increasingly looked to as the source of future growth.

Revamping the state-owned sector so the firms operate in a more commercial fashion could cost as many as four million jobs as the companies slim down and shed political tasks and subsidies, said Minxin Pei, a China expert at Claremont McKenna College. 'It wouldn't be privatization; it would be departyization,' Mr. Pei said.

Incomes have risen across China in the past decade, but political elites have benefited disproportionately from a system that massively enriches those closest to the center of power.

The problem is that what is good for the elites is no longer good for China: Deepening inequality now stands in the way of a long-stated goal of shifting China's growth model so that it depends more heavily on domestic consumption.

'To get really big [reform], you have to go for a redistribution of income,' said International Monetary Fund chief economist Olivier Blanchard.

According to a new national survey of China's household income, China's richest 10% control 56.9% of household income and 84.6% of household wealth─'a level of inequality seen only in some struggling African nations,' said Gan Li, a professor at Texas A&M University who led the survey.

The deepening inequality also makes it tougher to safeguard against the fate of other one-time economic stars that failed to advance to the ranks of wealthy nations.

Brazil's boom economy stagnated in 1980s and 1990s, for instance, as the country cleaved further into haves and have-nots, a pattern that some fear could be repeated in China. 'There's a race in China between economic disparity and the rise of the middle class,' says Cheng Li, a Brookings Institution senior fellow.

Bolstering low- and middle-income households is important economically because these people spend a higher share of their income than rich households. The savings rate for China's top 10% of urban households is 38%, compared with 27% for middle-income households and 8% for the bottom 10%.

Gao Jing, a 39-year-old migrant to Beijing, says she feels stuck. Ms. Gao runs a tiny store and earns about 2,500 to 3,000 yuan a month ($400 to $475), just enough to support her two children, she says. 'Poor people like us find it hard to earn money, no matter how hard we work.' Returning to her home province of Henan isn't an option, she says, because economic prospects are poor and the schools are bad.

Concern about inequality is becoming increasingly commonplace in China. According to a 2012 Pew Research Center poll of 3,177 Chinese, 48% say the gap between rich and poor is a very big problem, up from 41% in 2008.

Addressing inequality would require measures including protecting farmers' land rights to give them a valuable asset to sell or develop; granting migrant workers urban residency; and cracking down on corruption that enriches China's elites. All would require taking on powerful vested interests.

The current administration has long promised stronger land rights for China's farmers. Local political chiefs and real-estate firms, however, are both enriched by sales of land that local governments buy cheaply from farmers.

Farmers receive compensation of $17,850 per acre, on average, for land seized by local authorities, just 2.4% of the $740,000 per acre market value, according to a 2011 survey of 1,791 farmers conducted by Landesa Rural Development Institute.

China's 168 million migrant workers help build, clean and serve the cities, but few have the opportunity to make permanent homes there. That is because of the rigid urban-residency system that denies migrant workers and their families access to health care, education and welfare benefits in towns, whose governments see migrants as a source of cheap labor rather than members of the urban population.

Reducing income inequality would also require action to tamp down on corruption. A state-dominated economy, where officials control access to valuable assets, provides ample opportunities for graft.

Transparency International ranks China as the 75th most-corrupt country in the world, slightly above Colombia. A 2008 study by Wang Xiaolu of the China Reform Foundation found that China's richest 10% of urban households had average annual per capita disposable income of 139,000 yuan, three times higher than the official data suggest. The 'gray income' that accounts for much of the difference often has its origins in the misuse of power and is closely connected with corruption, Mr. Wang wrote.

Some analysts criticized Mr. Wang's survey, saying it used an unrepresentative sample.

The Chinese Internet site Baidu has created an online forum devoted to the issue of income inequality. 'The higher hope you have, the more disappointed you will get,' read one recent posting. 'The wealth gap is getting bigger, with the rich people buying fancy cars and houses while the poor people can't even afford the rent. That is the reality of China now.'

President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, set to step down at the 18th Party Congress in November, promised a more 'harmonious' society. But policies that juiced returns to investment and kept wages low also kept the income gap wide. The share of consumption in China's GDP fell to 34% in 2011, from 44% in 2002.

Consumption never fell to that low a level in the U.S, going back as far as the 19th century, or in the fast-growing Asian tigers during their growth years, according to McKinsey Global Institute. The share of household spending in GDP in the U.S. is about 70%.

The burden of reform will fall on the men expected to succeed them, Vice President Xi Jinping and Vice Premier Li Keqiang.

But don't expect China's new leaders to move quickly. Central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan has privately told Western officials that it would take until the fall of 2013 to put together a reform package, said a former U.S. official. 'To complete a smooth succession, Li and Xi probably have to keep their heads low,' said Fred Hu, chairman of Primavera Capital, a Beijing private-equity firm.

The beneficiaries of change, lower- and middle-income households, have little voice in the policy process. But the costs of failure in slower growth and political instability could be high.

'Japan's growth slowed when the economy was already wealthy, and levels of inequality were very low. That provided a baseline of stability for their lost decade,' said Scott Rozelle, an expert on China's economy at Stanford University. 'If China's economy in the next 20 years follows the same trajectory as the last 10, they could face zero growth as one of the most unequal societies in the world.'

TOM ORLIK/BOB DAVIS

2012年10月10日

天文学家测定迄今最精确宇宙膨胀速度(图)

艺术示意图:正在轨道上工作的美国宇航局斯皮策空间望远镜。这台工作在红外波段的望远镜近期给出了迄今最精确的宇宙膨胀测量数据  艺术示意图:正在轨道上工作的美国宇航局斯皮策空间望远镜。这台工作在红外波段的望远镜近期给出了迄今最精确的宇宙膨胀测量数据
量天尺:造父变星拥有独特的周光关系,被天文学家们称作  量天尺:造父变星拥有独特的周光关系,被天文学家们称作"宇宙标准烛光"。正是借助这些量天尺的帮助,我们得以以更高的精度对宇宙膨胀速率进行测量

  新浪科技讯 北京时间10月8日消息,据英国《每日邮报》报道,天文学家们最近给出了有关宇宙膨胀速度迄今最为精确的测量值。一个科学家小组使用美国宇航局斯皮策空间望远镜进行的最新测量显示,宇宙的膨胀速度约为46英里(74公里)每秒・每百万秒差距(更精确的数值为:74.3 ± 2.1 (km/s)/Mpc)。

  美国天文学家埃德温・哈勃(Edwin Hubble)在上世纪初首先通过大量细致的观测发现宇宙正处于不断膨胀之中,并且这种膨胀自从宇宙诞生以来就已经开始了。

  根据目前主流的科学认识,科学家们认为宇宙是在大约137亿年前的一次大爆炸中诞生的,而既然是一次剧烈的膨胀过程,那么测算出其膨胀的速度将是至关重要的,这一数值就被称为"哈勃常数",一般在物理学中都会用大写的H来表示,这一数值对于确定宇宙的年龄和大小将是极端关键的。

  斯皮策空间望远镜工作在波长较长的红外波段,而不是可见光波段。其最新的测量数据将此前由哈勃空间望远镜进行的一项类似观测的精确度提升了3个数量级,将该数值的不确定性范围降低至3%以内,这是对于宇宙学测量领域的一次重大飞越。天文学家们表示,本次最新精确化的这一数值是74.3 ± 2.1 (km/s)/Mpc,其中1百万秒差距约相当于300万光年。

  麦克・沃纳(Michael Werner)是斯皮策项目科学家,来自美国宇航局加州喷气推进实验室(JPL)。他说:"此次斯皮策望远镜再次完成了一项本不属于它的工作。在此之前,它通过对系外行星大气层的研究让我们大吃一惊,而这一次,它竟然成为了一台研究宇宙学的利器。"

  由这项发现获得的数据,加上此前来自美国宇航局威尔金森微波各向异性探测器已经发布的数据,两者相结合,科学家们希望借此进行一次独立的暗能量测量。暗能量是宇宙中最大的未解谜团之一。

  在上世纪90年代末,天文学家们惊骇地发现我们所处的宇宙事实上正处于加速膨胀之中。这是非常反常的现象,由于宇宙中充满了物质和暗物质――它们都具有质量,因此也都具有引力。在这些引力的作用下宇宙即便处于膨胀之中,也应该会逐渐减速或者至少保持平衡但是绝不应该会加速膨胀。为了搞清楚这个问题的答案,天文学家们不得不构思出了一种"未知的神秘力量",它独自对抗整个宇宙中所有物质和暗物质所产生的引力,甚至将它们全部击败并推动宇宙加速膨胀。由于科学家们对这种神秘的强大力量一无所知,因此人们便赋予它一个理所当然的名字:"暗能量"。本次研究的第一作者,美国卡耐基天文台主管温迪・弗里德曼(Wendy Freedman)说:"这是一个巨大的谜团。"

  她说:"很高兴我们可以使用斯皮策空间望远镜进行此类触及到宇宙学最基本问题层面的研究项目,也就是宇宙在目前阶段下精确的膨胀速率,并从另一个角度测量暗能量在宇宙中所占的比例。"

  由于所观测的波段是在红外波段,斯皮策空间望远镜可以将此前哈勃空间望远镜在可见光波段进行的观测结果向前推进一步,因为相比哈勃,斯皮策望远镜的视野可以穿透尘埃和气体云,更好地对一类被称作"造父变星"的恒星进行观测。

  这类变星是一种脉动变星,由于它们的亮度和光变周期之间具有明显的特点,它们常常被天文学家们用作量天尺:只要找到距离已知的这类变星,然后观察它们离开我们的速度,我们便可以测量出宇宙的膨胀速度。

  造父变星之所以可以当做量天尺来使用,是因为它们到地球之间的距离是可以直接测量的。1908年,美国著名的女天文学家里维特(Henrietta Leavitt)注意到,一类被称作造父变星的恒星,其亮度和光变周期之间存在严格的相关,这就是著名的"周光关系"。

  为了进一步说明为何这种性质非常重要,请想象这样一个场景:一个人正逐渐离你远去,他的手上拿着一根蜡烛。随着这个人渐行渐远,他手上的蜡烛烛光也会随之变暗,那么我们只要直接测量烛光的亮度,就可以得到蜡烛到我们所在地的距离远近。对于宇宙中的造父变星情况也是一样的,它们被誉为宇宙中的"标准烛光"。只要测量它们在天空中的亮度,天文学家们就能测算出它们的距离。

  斯皮策望远镜在银河系中挑选出10颗,并在邻近的大麦哲伦星系中挑选出80颗造父变星进行观测。通过这些观测,研究小组得以以更高的精度测量出它们的亮度,并以此计算出它们的实际距离,借此改进先前对这一课题研究所作出的测量值。有了这些数据,天文学家们便可以更进一步,沿着宇宙度量尺的阶梯往上迈出一步,去估算整个宇宙的膨胀速度。

  弗里德曼女士表示:"仅仅在10年之前,要想在同一句句子中使用'精确'和'宇宙学'两个单词都是不可想象的,那时候我们对宇宙的尺寸和年龄的认知都非常模糊,误差在两个数量级以上。"不过她说:"但是我们现在所谈论的已经是几个百分比的精确性了,这真是令人难以置信。"有关这一研究成果的论文将会于近期发表在《天体物理学杂志》上。(晨风)


http://tech.sina.com.cn/d/2012-10-08/07587679862.shtml

2012年10月8日

王立军职业生涯梳理:文强被执行死刑前曾探望

2012年9月18日,四川省成都市中级人民法院一审开庭审理了重庆市原副市长、公安局原局长王立军徇私枉法、叛逃、滥用职权、受贿案。  2012年9月18日,四川省成都市中级人民法院一审开庭审理了重庆市原副市长、公安局原局长王立军徇私枉法、叛逃、滥用职权、受贿案。

王立军在法庭上。王立军在法庭上。

  王立军:获刑15年

  由王立军叛逃引发的一系列事件历时200多天,迄今已有7人被宣判

视频:王立军庭审现场称会用余生来回报来源:CCTV新闻频道

  文 刘俊峰

  9月24日,王立军案一审宣判。法院以徇私枉法、叛逃、滥用职权、受贿等四项罪名判处王立军有期徒刑15年,剥夺政治权利一年。

  王立军没有上诉,他在法庭上"真诚悔罪"。

  此前将近一个月,安徽省合肥市中级法院对薄谷开来、张晓军(薄家勤务人员)故意杀人案作出一审判决,认定薄谷开来、张晓军在英国公民尼尔·伍德死亡案中犯故意杀人罪,分别判处死缓和有期徒刑9年。

  同时,重庆市公安局原副局长郭维国,市公安局刑警总队原总队长李阳,市公安局技术侦查总队原总队长、渝北区公安分局原局长王鹏飞,沙坪坝区公安分局原常务副局长王智等4人,分别被判处有期徒刑11年、7年、5年和5年。

  从2012年2月6日事发到9月24日,由王立军叛逃引发的一系列事件历时200多天,迄今已有7人被宣判。

  与薄谷开来矛盾激化

  2月6日是中国传统节日元宵节。

  当天,时任重庆市副市长的王立军以洽谈工作为由,借故取消原定公务安排,于14时31分私自进入美国驻成都总领事馆,与美领馆官员就环境保护、教育等事项作了短暂交谈后,即称因查办案件人身安全受到威胁,请求美方提供庇护,并书写了政治避难申请。此后,经重庆市和中央有关部门劝导,于次日23时35分自动离开美领馆接受调查。事后,侦查机关依法对王立军私自进入美领馆滞留事件进行调查,薄谷开来涉嫌杀害英国公民尼尔·伍德等案件也随之浮出水面。

  据报道:薄谷开来母子同尼尔·伍德过去关系良好,后因经济利益问题产生矛盾并不断激化,薄谷开来认为尼尔。伍德威胁到其子薄某某人身安全。

  2011年11月12日,经与薄谷开来等人商议,王立军以尼尔·伍德涉嫌毒品犯罪为由对其进行监控,张晓军则受命将尼尔·伍德接到重庆。次日,张晓军陪同尼尔·伍德从北京来到重庆,并安排其住在南山丽景度假酒店。

  随后,薄谷开来准备了装有含氰化物毒药的玻璃瓶和装有毒品胶囊的药瓶,并交给张晓军。当晚21时许,两人携带毒药以及酒、茶等来到酒店,"薄谷开来进入房间与尼尔·伍德一起饮酒、喝茶,张晓军在外等候。后尼尔·伍德因醉酒倒在卫生间,薄谷开来叫张晓军进入房间并要去他随身携带的毒药"。此后,张晓军将尼尔·伍德扶到床上,薄谷开来趁其呕吐后要喝水之机,将毒药倒入其口中,又将事先准备的毒品胶囊等物倒在房间地面上伪造现场,造成尼尔·伍德吸毒的假象。

  14日中午,薄谷开来当面向王立军讲述了其投毒经过,此时王立军进行了秘密录音。"他让我不要再去想这件事,今后这事和我无关了,还让我把案件的记忆抹去。我讲我有点担心,他讲过一两个星期就好了。"薄谷开来在证词中说。

  15日,尼尔·伍德被发现死亡后,王立军指派与薄谷开来关系较近的重庆市公安局原副局长郭维国负责该案的办理,但没有向郭维国等办案人员告知其所掌握的录音证据。16日,郭维国等人做出尼尔·伍德系酒后猝死的结论,王立军未提出异议。两天后,尼尔·伍德尸体在当地火化。当晚,王立军将该情况电话告知薄谷开来并说了8个字,"化作青烟,驾鹤西去"。

  王立军虽然包庇薄谷开来的罪行,但并不意味着他们之间没有矛盾。新华社的报道说:"11·15"案案发前,王立军和薄谷开来就因为种种原因产生过矛盾。2011年8月12日,薄谷开来之子薄某某有事想见王立军,王立军人在重庆市区但不想见他,就让司机说自己在万州,结果薄某某在夜赴万州途中差点出车祸,薄谷开来因此很生气。后来,薄谷开来担心案发,采取了毁证等一系列行动,并开始防备王立军。

  相关证人证言显示,今年1月28日,王立军向当时的重庆市委主要负责人反映薄谷开来在"11·15"案件中有重大作案嫌疑,29日上午受到其怒斥,并被打耳光。当时在场的郭维国在讯问笔录中称:"打了王立军,这个矛盾就公开化了。"

  矛盾激化后,王立军当日即安排李阳等人重新调取证人证言,妥善保管好关键物证及秘密录音资料。后来他又将整理的卷宗交由李阳等人转移、保管。

  2月初,王立军的重庆市副市长工作分工被调整,不再兼任重庆市公安局局长职务;其身边3名工作人员被非法审查,此时他感到自身处境危险,遂产生了叛逃的想法。

  与黑老大搏斗

  今年52岁的王立军是内蒙古阿尔山人。父母均为工人。他自幼生活在草原上,喜欢摔跤、拳击,曾入选当地的"民族摔跤队"和内蒙古少年拳击队。他的蒙文名字叫"乌恩一巴特尔","乌恩"意为"太阳升起","巴特尔"则是"英雄"。

  1977年王立军参军入伍,复员后到辽宁省铁法市商业局做职员,一年后得到机会成为警察,先后担任铁法市公安局晓南镇派出所所长、大明派出所所长、铁法市公安局副局长;1993年以后历任铁岭市公安局副局长、局长等职;2003年离开铁岭,调任锦州市公安局局长、党委书记。王立军在铁岭一共呆了22年,在这里他以"打黑"而闻名。至今,王立军的弟弟王立辉还生活在铁岭。

  上世纪90年代初,铁岭市以杨俊富、张洪俊、肖建军、何晶为首的4大恶势力团伙豢养了一批打手,划区割据。

  1994年刚刚上任一年的王立军在铁岭展开了一场"扫黑行动"。9月19日,实施抓捕的当晚,为防止走漏风声,他只带一名警员上阵并瞒着家人写下了遗嘱。与黑老大的搏斗中,他右腮内侧被牙齿硌烂,眼角开裂,其间还被掐住了脖子,几乎窒息,"第一次感觉离死神如此之近"。最终他还是生擒了黑老大。

  "9·19"打黑行动抓获主要案犯及团伙成员110人,其中7人被判处死刑,缴获赃款200余万元,涉案的19名政府机关内部的蠹虫也被一网打尽。这一仗让王立军威震全国警界,他被评为"全国十大杰出民警"。

  2000年,王立军任铁岭市公安局局长时,上级指定将沈阳黑帮头目刘涌关押在他的辖区内;2003年,他调任锦州市公安局局长后,刘涌也被"调"了过去。对此,外界当时曾说:"只有王立军才能制服刘涌。"2002年秋,他奉命奔赴辽宁盘锦,一举打掉了6个黑恶团伙,并将22名充当"保护伞"的民警绳之以法⋯⋯

  坊间一度传言,黑社会曾出价500万元买他的人头。妻子及女儿也曾受到人身威胁,但后被证实均为误传。据《环球人物》2011年报道,王立军的女儿现已大学毕业并参加工作。妻子和王立军原是一个部队的战友,现在某市交警支队工作。

  据目前公开的资料,王立军身上有20多处伤,最严重的一次头部受伤,十多天昏迷不醒,单位把花圈悼词都准备好了,结果他又挺了过来。

  与文强较量

  2008年6月25日,时任辽宁省锦州市公安局局长的王立军来到重庆,接替文强担任重庆市公安局党委副书记、常务副局长。

  7月,文强出任重庆市司法局局长;王立军则在重庆掀起了一场史无前例的"打黑"行动。并从副局长晋升为局长,以及于2009年7月15日兼任武警重庆市总队第一政委、第一书记。

  2009年8月7日,王立军亲自带队,在重庆江北机场将刚下飞机的文强"接回"警局。重庆市纪委有关负责人随即证实,重庆市司法局局长文强涉嫌严重违纪,接受组织调查。文强被"双规"是因其涉嫌庇护黑社会,充当了保护伞。

  2010年4月14日,重庆市第五中级人民法院判处文强死刑,剥夺政治权利终身,并处没收个人全部财产。7月7日,文强被执行死刑。

  坊间盛传,在文强被执行死刑前一天,王立军曾到看守所探望,两人的谈话时长50分钟。

  王立军在接受《京华时报》采访时说:"其实不要只关注这50分钟,再往前想半步,在那么漫长的时间里,我和文强的谈话仅仅是这50分钟吗?我和文强的谈话仅仅就这一次吗?不会。但是这50分钟恐怕是他生命进入倒计时至关重要的50分钟,让他多了一份平静和从容。(谈话)这里面有人性化的元素。"

  之后,重庆市人大代表、重庆渝强实业董事长、巴南区第二富豪黎强,重庆市江州实业董事长、渝中区人大代表陈明亮,重庆民营摩托车制造业的"大哥"级人物龚刚模,万贯财务公司的陈坤志等陆续伏法⋯⋯

  2010年3月初,重庆警方从副科到正处级干部几乎全被就地免职,3528个岗位重新竞聘,这种"大换血"的改革方式,惊动全国。

  2011年5月27日,王立军全票当选重庆市副市长。

  从"脱警"到叛逃

  2012年2月2日,重庆市人民政府新闻办公室官方微博发布消息:据悉,近日市委决定,王立军同志不再兼任市公安局局长、党委书记,以副市长身份分管联系经济领域工作。

  对于王立军,重庆市政府曾给出了一个约800字的评价。称其"政治立场坚定,宗旨意识和大局观念强,事业心和责任感强,坚持原则,敢于碰硬,处事公道,执法公正,要求自己严格,群众口碑好";"不足之处是,工作有时要求急一些,批评人不太注意方式方法"。

  2月6日,重庆市人民政府新闻办公室官方微博发布消息:昨日,副市长王立军到市教委、重庆师范大学调研时要求,全力打造人才高地、教育高地,为全市可持续发展提供有力支撑。

  2月8日,政府新闻办再次发布消息:据悉,王立军副市长因长期超负荷工作,精神高度紧张,身体严重不适,经同意,现正在接受休假式的治疗。正当人们琢磨着什么是"休假式治疗"时,外交部发言人办公室公开了王立军于2月6日进入美国驻成都总领事馆并滞留1天的事实。

  3月2日,全国政协十一届五次会议大会发言人赵启正表示,王立军目前正接受有关部门的调查,调查工作也取得了进展。他是全国人民代表大会的代表,已请假不出席这次会议。

  在两会闭幕前夕,3月14日,中国国务院总理温家宝在答中外记者问时正面回应了王立军事件。温家宝说:多年来,重庆市历届政府和广大人民群众,为改革建设事业付出了很大的努力,也取得了明显的成绩。但是现任重庆市委和市政府必须反思,并认真从王立军事件中吸取教训。


http://news.sina.com.cn/c/sd/2012-10-08/130825313864.shtml