2012年10月29日

投资大亨保尔森的买房经 John Paulson Doubles Down

冲基金经理约翰•保尔森(John Paulson)在2007年押对了次贷危机会引发房地产泡沫,大赚近40亿美元,令其声名大噪。

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科罗拉多州阿斯彭
但之后,这位富豪投资者就有些失了准头,误判了房地产周期触底的时间。2010年在纽约的大学俱乐部(University Club)发表演讲时,保尔森说,“要是你现在没有房,那就买一套吧;要是你已经有了一套房,就再买一套;要是你已经拥有了两套,就买第三套,还可以把钱借给亲戚去买房。”但到目前为止,这个判断一直是错的:据一位知情人士透露,这位华尔街大亨由于赌早了经济复苏的时间,2011年个人账户上损失了大约30亿美元。

但是,在整个经济低迷时期,保尔森都没停止过他的买房行动。据熟悉他情况的人透露,保尔森的净资产估计约有110亿美元。公开资料显示,过去八年间,保尔森斥资超过1.45亿美元,购置了六处房产,其中两处位于纽约州南安普敦(Southampton),两处靠近科罗拉多州的阿斯彭(Aspen),另外两处位于他本人目前所居住的曼哈顿。(他后来在2009年作价1000万美元卖掉了在南安普敦的一处房产,此前一年他在附近购置了一处更大的房产。)

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2010年,他斥资2450万美元买下了一套距阿斯彭市中心仅几分钟路程的房产。
公开资料还显示,今年六月,保尔森以总价4900万美元抢购到一个占地90英亩的阿斯彭牧场和毗邻的一处房产,是该地区最高的房产成交价之一。该资产的出让方是班达尔•本•苏丹亲王(Prince Bandar bin Sultan)。

从哈拉牧场(Hala Ranch)最后的成交价来看,保尔森是“捡了个便宜”:2006年它最早挂牌时的意向售价是1.35亿美元,成为当时全美挂牌出售房产中最贵的一处。在阿斯彭和南安普敦,保尔森都是先购置一处相对较便宜的房产,几年后再在附近以4000多万美元的价格购置更大面积的房产。

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保尔森现年56岁,对媒体采取回避的态度,平时很少接受采访。(他拒绝就本文发表评论。)他在纽约州皇后郡(Queens)的一个中产阶级家庭长大,上了哈佛商学院(Harvard Business School)。他通过向亲朋好友筹款,加上自己的积蓄,最终以200万美元成立了基金公司保尔森公司(Paulson & Co.)。

保尔森本人在曼哈顿、南安普顿和阿斯彭各有一处住所。但他买房并不全是为了自住,同时也是基于对开发放缓和供应量减少将推动楼市复苏的判断。10月15日,保尔森公司旗下管理的基金收购了总部位于加州新港(Newport)的建筑商William Lyon Homes总价值相当于3000万美元的存量房。保尔森公司目前在佛罗里达州、亚利桑那州、内华达州、科罗拉多州和加利福尼亚州总计拥有约25000处房产,均是以“甩卖价”入的手。

去年夏天,大约在保尔森购入哈拉牧场的时候,他的办公室发表了一份声明说,保尔森直接或通过其旗下基金间接地“在美国各地拥有大量房产权益,包括在科罗拉多州、亚利桑那州、加利福尼亚州、内华达州、佛罗里达州以及夏威夷的一些房产。”虽然保尔森本人很少谈及他持有的资产,但这份声明还提到,“保尔森目前依然对美国各地的房产投资机会充满兴趣。”

美国各地一些熟悉保尔森名下房产信息的经纪人表示,其中有些房产(比如哈拉牧场)是美国投资最成功的房产之一,因为它们在这轮楼市低迷期中基本都没有贬值。在阿斯彭从业的经纪人莫林•斯台普顿(Maureen Stapleton)表示,保尔森支付的价格“不算贵”。她说,“他买的房产非常独特,占地面积很大,这么大面积的住宅在阿斯彭找不到第二处了。所以我认为从长远来看,它的价值肯定会很坚挺。”

至于如果保尔森明年将哈拉牧场转手卖出,能得到多少钱,经手这笔交易的房地产经纪人约书亚•萨斯洛夫(Joshua Saslove)不置可否。他说,“这种难得的房产就像苹果一样,不是用来买卖的,而是用来享用的。”

Lauren Schuker Blum

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


Hedge-fund manager John Paulson famously made nearly $4 billion in 2007 correctly betting that the housing bubble, fueled by the subprime mortgage market, would pop.

Then the billionaire investor somewhat reversed course, arguing that the housing cycle had hit a low point. 'If you don't own a home, buy one,' he said in a 2010 speech at the University Club in New York. 'If you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes, buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.' So far, that bet has been a loser: The Wall Street tycoon lost about $3 billion personally in 2011, according to people close to the hedge-fund manager, speculating that the economy would recover faster than it did.

But through the downturn Mr. Paulson -- whose net worth is estimated to be around $11 billion, according to people familiar with his situation -- continued his real estate spending spree. Over the last eight years, he has spent more than $145 million on six properties, including two estates in Southampton, N.Y., two properties near Aspen, Colo., and two residences in Manhattan, where he is based, according to public records. (He later sold one of the Southampton properties, for $10 million in 2009, a year after buying a larger estate nearby).

In June, Mr. Paulson snapped up a 90-acre Aspen ranch and an adjoining property from Prince Bandar bin Sultan for a total of $49 million, according to public records, one of the highest prices ever paid for property in the area.

The Aspen ranch was purchased at something of a discount: It was originally listed for $135 million in 2006, making it at that time the most expensive home for sale in the U.S. In both Aspen and Southampton, Mr. Paulson first bought a less expensive home before buying a larger estate nearby in the $40 million range a few years later.

Mr. Paulson, 56, studiously avoids the media, rarely granting interviews. (He declined to comment for this article.) He grew up in a middle-class family in Queens, N.Y., and went to Harvard Business School, eventually starting Paulson & Co. with $2 million he raised partially from family and friends, as well as some of his own money.

He personally occupies a residence each in Manhattan, Southampton and Aspen. He's not just investing in personal real estate, however, but also betting that the housing market will recover as development has slowed and supply diminishes. On Monday, funds managed by Paulson & Co. bought $30 million worth of stock in William Lyon Homes, a Newport, Calif.-based builder. Paulson & Co. now owns about 25,000 home sites in Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and California -- all acquired through distressed sales.

Last summer, Mr. Paulson's office released a statement around the time of his purchase of Hala Ranch saying that he has both directly and through his funds 'substantial real-estate interests across the United States, including other properties in Colorado, Arizona, California, Nevada and Florida and Hawaii.' Although he has rarely spoken about his holdings, the statement also said that 'Mr. Paulson continues to be interested in real-estate opportunities across the U.S.'

Brokers across the country familiar with Mr. Paulson's personal homes say that the purchases -- some of which, like Hala Ranch, are among the biggest trophy properties in the U.S. -- have mostly retained their value through the real-estate downturn. Maureen Stapleton, an Aspen broker, says that Mr. Paulson paid a 'fair price.' 'What he bought is very unique,' she says. 'It's a tremendous piece of property and the size of the home you just can't duplicate here in Aspen -- so I certainly think it will hold its value over the long term.'

As for what price Mr. Paulson would get if he flipped Hala Ranch next year, Joshua Saslove, the real-estate broker who sold Mr. Paulson the ranch, is mum. 'These kinds of trophy properties are like apples -- they're not for buying or selling. They're meant for eating.'

Lauren Schuker Blum

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