2010年3月31日

互联网与国界(下) Closing the frontier

但尽管谷歌已发出信号,表明自己将坚持立场,但几乎没有哪家公司准备响应,这让那些威权政府更容易继续当前的政策。

“全球网络倡议”组织(Global Network Initiative)一直得不到广泛的支持,就是一个佐证。该组织成立于4年前,旨在为企业和非政府组织提供一个论坛,为应对在线审查和压制设计一种通行做法。不过,该组织迄今仍只有3个企业成员——谷歌、微软(Microsoft)和雅虎(Yahoo)。据一名与会者透露,在美国国务院3月份召开的一次会议中,美国副国务卿罗伯特•霍马茨(Robert Hormats)对近20家公司的技术和电信高管们进行了严厉批评,指责他们没有团结起来支持该组织。

未支持谷歌 微软挨批

即使那些已在公共场合宣示立场的公司,态度也可能模棱两可。不久前,微软首席执行官史蒂夫•鲍尔默(Steve Ballmer)及董事长比尔•盖茨(Bill Gates)就谷歌事件发表公开评论,似乎在中国与谷歌的争执中站在中国一边——仍在中国提供经过审查的搜索服务的微软,势必会获益于谷歌的立场转变——为此,微软遭到总部位于纽约的游说组织“人权观察”(Human Rights Watch)的批评。鲍尔默随后发表了一篇博文,重申了微软对互联网自由的支持。

各国政府在这方面也都没有什么热情,尽管美国的政治热度今年有所升温。谷歌着力强调,网络攻击导致该公司改变了对中国业务的态度,在日益担忧网络战的美国,这种强调起到了煽动情绪的作用。

今年1月份,美国国务卿希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)宣布,促进全球互联网自由是美国使命的一部分。她的支持者认为,尽管尚不清楚美国将付出多大的外交努力来支撑这些话,但希拉里至少已将这个问题列为双边讨论的一个议项。

美国国会也参与进来。“出于某种原因,多数人认为言论自由正在占上风,但实际情况正相反,”民主党参议员特德•考夫曼(Ted Kaufman)表示。最近,他与另外九名参议员(其中五名共和党人)成立了“全球互联网自由议员团”(Global Internet Freedom caucus)。

不过,这些努力仍未得到其它地方的回应;例如,行业高管们哀叹称,欧洲的支持不冷不热。这在一定程度上是因为人们怀疑,美国一些参与推崇互联网自由的人动机有问题。麦康瑞表示:“冷战份子正抓住这件事,重提他们的日程。”

此外,戈登斯密斯警告称,美国对其宪法《第一修正案》(First Amendment)赋予的言论自由权利的信奉,并未在其它地方引起强烈共鸣——在其它地方,不同的隐私及其它社会期望往往得到更优先的考虑,正如澳大利亚过滤计划所显示的那样。

促进互联网自由与打击网络犯罪

或许最重要的是,政府促进互联网自由的企图,与另一项工作重点也直接抵触,那就是打击各种形式的网络犯罪——从身份盗窃和共享受版权保护的电影,到由政府撑腰的企图窃取商业及军事机密的行为。

打击网络犯罪的一种明显手段,就是设法增强官方对互联网的监控,尽管这也令人不安。

例如,网络安全的倡导者长期批评,相关规则东拼西凑,过于宽松,让那些使用假身份的人易于获得网址。以.ru(俄罗斯)和.cn(中国)为结尾的域名中,犯罪行为比比皆是,以至于许多西方公司和软件服务阻止浏览器访问这些域名的网站。最近,中俄两国都出台了法规,要求验证所有申请注册域名的人的身份。这应该会有助于抑制犯罪行为,但也会让政府更清楚地掌握异议人士的行动。

作为回应,全球最大域名注册商GoDaddy最近表示,将停止出售.cn地址。此举令其成为首家效仿谷歌的科技公司,不过,该公司在华业务规模非常小。

抵制审查与打击盗版

抵制审查的斗争,也与打击互联网盗版行为的斗争抵触。麦康瑞提到了英国拟议中的数字经济法案。该法案将赋予政府更大的权力,通过采用多种与互联网审查相同的技术,来监控和监管网络。

与此同时,美国正在制定本国在互联网时代的版权执法总规划:一些音乐和电影协会最近表示,应迫使互联网接入提供商监控受版权保护内容的流量。最关键的是,美国现在将网络盗窃数字商业财产视为一种国家安全威胁。

最终,对于何谓合理的政府监管,何谓造成侵扰且不合理的干预,各人的标准不同。

为互联网公司的应对举措设定标准,至少能有助于指引这些公司的决定,抑制滥用。例如,推动增加透明度,可以减少威权政府不公开地行使审查权力的机会。

谷歌高管希望,通过将中国内地搜索业务转至香港,能对此起到帮助作用,因为这将迫使当局今后更明确地表明他们会屏蔽哪些搜索结果。

随着万维网被各国法律割裂得越来越分散,决定如何应对此类事件,似乎会越来越有挑战性。

麦康瑞表示:“企业花了一代人的时间,才认识到自己在劳工实践方面的责任,又花了一代人的时间,才认识到自己在环境方面的义务。”她补充称,要为网络制定道德规范,可能要花同样长的时间。

译者/何黎


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032009


But while the search company has sent a signal that it intends to stand its ground, few others have been prepared to follow its lead, making it easier for repressive governments to continue with their current policies.

The lack of broad support for the Global Network Initiative is a case in point. Set up four years ago, it was meant to be a forum for companies and non-governmental organisations to devise a common practice for confronting online censorship and repression. However, it still counts only three companies – Google, Microsoft and Yahoo – as members. In a meeting at the US state department this month, undersecretary Robert Hormats castigated the technology and telecommunications executives from nearly 20 companies for not rallying around the initiative, according to one person present.

Even those companies that have taken a public stand can appear ambivalent. Microsoft, which still offers a censored search service in China and stands to benefit from Google's change of stance there, recently drew criticism from Human Rights Watch, a New York-based advocacy, after Steve Ballmer, chief executive, and Bill Gates, chairman, made public comments appearing to side with Beijing in its row with Google. Mr Ballmer later published a blog post reiterating his company's support for internet freedom.

Governments have also been slow to take up the running, though political momentum in the US has picked up this year. Google's heavy emphasis on the cyberattacks that it said led to its change of heart in China helped to fan the flames in Washington, where cyberwarfare is a growing concern.

In January Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, proclaimed it part of her country's mission to foster global internet freedom. While it is unclear how much diplomatic firepower will underpin such words, she has at least made this an item for bilateral discussions, according to supporters.

Congress has also joined in. “Most people for some reason think the free press is on the march, but actually it's the opposite,” says Senator Ted Kaufman, a Democrat who last week formed a Global Internet Freedom caucus with nine other senators, five of them Republicans.

Yet such efforts have yet to be echoed elsewhere; industry executives, for example, bemoan lukewarm support from Europe. That is partly due to suspicions about the motives of some in the US who have jumped on the bandwagon. “The cold war warriors are seizing on it to revive their agenda,” says Ms MacKinnon.

Also, the US devotion to its First Amendment right of free speech does not resonate as strongly elsewhere, where different privacy and other social expectations can often take a higher priority, warns Mr Goldsmith – as Australia's filtering plans show.

Perhaps most importantly, government attempts to promote internet freedom also clash directly with a rival priority: the fight against cybercrime in all its guises, from identity theft and file-sharing of copyrighted movies to government-sponsored attempts to extract corporate and military secrets.

One obvious way to combat web crime has been to try to increase official monitoring of the internet – though that also raises concerns.

For example, security advocates have long criticised the loose patchwork of rules allowing web addresses to be awarded to people using bogus identification. Domain names ending in .ru for Russia and .cn for China have been so riddled with criminality that many western companies and software services prevent browsers from visiting them. Recently both countries issued rules requiring positive identification for anyone wishing to register domain names. That should help to limit criminality but it will also give those governments a clearer view of dissident activity.


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032009/en

基金进货单曝光 半年内加仓265只股票

http://www.sina.com.cn  2010年04月01日 07:20  中国证券网

  新名单中,有109只是新上市的股票,156只是老股票。虽然基金新增持股票数量超两百只,但基金集中持有度并不高,118只个股仅有2只以下基金买入。

  基金09年年报已经披露完毕,其庞杂的持仓情况得以全面曝光。在IPO重启以及板块概念投资此起彼伏的双重作用下,除了在那些基金股票池中的熟面孔之外,有多达265只股票新进入到基金的持股名单中。而就在这份名单中也不乏今年以来A股市场翻云覆雨的大牛股。

  尝鲜不厌旧:

  增持“旧票”清一色为中小盘

  根据60家基金公司旗下基金2009年报披露的全部持股情况与半年报对比,有265只股票新加入基金的股票池。

  其中,有109只是新上市的股票,156只是老股票。由于大盘股基金早已有所布局,因而基金增持的老股票清一色为中小盘品种。值得注意的是,其中流通股本在3亿以下的小盘股又占据了主流,被基金新增持102只。

  从行业来看,电子元器件和设备、房地产、机械制造以及消费医药类个股被基金相中的较多。此外,基金对于主题投资概念股也尤为热衷。

  海南板块中的罗牛山(9.50,0.05,0.53%)新大洲A(8.20,0.04,0.49%),海西板块中的三木集团(7.94,0.02,0.25%),西藏板块中的西藏旅游(12.59,0.14,1.12%)和涉及新能源、新材料、生物高新技术和节能减排概念下的诸多个股均出现在基金的新“进货单”中。值得注意的是,有9只ST股也身在其中。而这其中不少公司的业务正是与上述热点概念挂钩,例如ST安彩(5.60,0.02,0.36%)、*ST国祥等。

  而新发行的个股大部分是由基金在一级市场上“打新”所得。

  值得注意的是,大部分已过3个月配售锁定期的新股都遭遇基金减持。大盘股中的四川成渝(9.33,0.08,0.86%)光大证券(26.50,-0.01,-0.04%)被基金大量抛售,截止四季度末分别仅被11只和29只基金持有,IPO时被近百家机构热捧的光芒不再。而前几批上市的不少中小盘股也同样被“锁定收益”,万马电缆(34.08,0.46,1.37%)久其软件(55.15,0.10,0.18%)宇顺电子(39.00,2.05,5.55%)等中留存的基金已寥寥无几。

  打赢调整仗:

  156只老股票仅3只下跌

  在机构资金的青睐之下,这些被基金新增持的个股表现如何呢?统计显示,从09年四季度至今,基金选择的156只老股票仅有3只股票下跌,其余均实现正收益,整体涨幅达53%,但个股之间表现分化很大。

  其中,股价翻倍的公司有8家,其中东湖高新(11.95,0.13,1.10%)康强电子(14.26,-0.02,-0.14%)士兰微(14.88,0.03,0.20%)分别以235%、135%和132%的涨幅成为前三甲。股价下跌的公司则是荣华实业(9.91,0.21,2.16%)、ST合金、顺发恒业(9.80,0.18,1.87%)

  个别在去年四季度滞涨的个股在今年开始发力,奥特迅(34.45,1.02,3.05%)今年以来上涨55%,漳州发展(9.29,0.04,0.43%)洪城水业(16.58,0.48,2.98%)今年涨幅也已逾40%。东湖高新、罗牛山则依旧在资金的热炒中飙涨。

  不过,不少中小盘股在进入2010年后开始涨势乏力,其中38只个股股价出现回落。值得注意的是,宁波联合(11.63,0.11,0.95%)华电能源(4.89,0.04,0.82%)太平洋(17.13,0.16,0.94%)深圳华强(10.37,0.26,2.57%)金瑞科技(14.46,0.00,0.00%)上涨空间收窄到20%以内;而海王生物(13.87,0.02,0.14%)富龙热电(12.68,0.10,0.79%)、荣华实业今年以来跌幅最深。

  基金扎堆公司:

  资产重组+新兴产业

  虽然基金新增持股票数量超两百只,但基金集中持有度并不高,118只个股仅有2只以下基金买入。265个新面孔,良莠难分。去粗取精的捷径之一是找到那些受到了基金集体认可的公司。

  资产重组后“蝶变”的公司首先受到基金集体关注。其中,房地产业资产与公司原水泥资产进行置换后的卧龙地产(8.51,0.05,0.59%)受到最多基金的首度增持。

  早在去年11月的公开增发中,卧龙地产便受到基金的群起响应,其中包括9只专户“一对多”产品。而后基金在二级市场上再次果敢买入,嘉实系、广发系、中银系基金大手笔增持,嘉实稳健在12月8日限售股上市后至12月30日内继续吃进400万股。截止四季度末共有26只基金驻扎卧龙地产。

  受到同样待遇的还有ST中润,公司在08年剥离了原公司全部造纸业务,将其房地产类业务注入。去年6月恢复上市后,国泰系、海富通系、新华系以及友邦华泰系下9只基金纷纷进驻。

  资产重组的预期同样对基金具有诱惑力。星湖科技(12.42,0.27,2.22%)在去年三季度末吸引了华夏大盘为首的8只基金豪买7760万股。很快,11月星湖科技发布停牌公告,称公司正筹划非公开发行事宜。至年末,入住星湖科技的基金已多达18只,其中招商系7只基金手握多达4682万股;而王亚伟的华夏大盘和华夏策略却不知何时已悄然而退。

  另外,政策支持的新兴产业也是基金重点布局的主线。

  生产片式电感器件的顺络电子是市场中活跃的手机支付概念股,从三季开始渐有机构问讯,截止4季度末已有10只基金入驻。宝信软件(32.00,-0.07,-0.22%)、士兰微等高新技术产业公司同样引得不少基金垂青。涉及新能源的东方热电(5.87,0.03,0.51%)、东湖高新;从事节能减排的武汉控股(11.10,0.05,0.45%)、洪城水业研发生物高新技术的保税科技(12.63,0.50,4.12%)正邦科技(14.48,-0.06,-0.41%)东方海洋(12.64,0.30,2.43%)也在此列。

  对于新兴产业上市公司的扫描和布局,不得不提的是易方达基金公司。东方园林(124.43,-0.47,-0.38%)焦点科技(76.86,2.07,2.77%)神州泰岳(196.900,0.50,0.25%)三只新股在上市后被易方达系多只基金组团买入。


http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zldx/20100401/07207674080.shtml

2010年3月30日

智能手机将主宰美国市场 Smartphone sales boom is poised to set the tone in US

尼尔森(Nielson)研究公司表示,到明年年底,iPhone、黑莓(BlackBerry)和摩托罗拉Droid (Motorola Droid)等智能手机在美国市场的销量,将超过老一代的“多功能手机”(feature phone)。

尼尔森负责电信研究的罗杰•恩特(Roger Entner)在一份新报告中预测,未来18个月内,美国智能手机销量将稳步增长,到明年秋季,智能手机销量占手机总销量的比例,将达到略低于50%的水平。

他表示:“我们正处于一个新无线时代的开端,在这个时代,智能手机将成为消费者用来与朋友、互联网和世界联系的标准设备。”

配备一体化摄像头、具有多媒体功能的“多功能手机”仍占总销量的70%以上,但尖端智能手机的销量正在迅速拉近与多功能手机之间的差距,这种手机可以定制,安装下载的软件或app(应用软件)。

恩特表示:“在过去6个月里,智能手机占手机总销量的比例已经升至29%。在尼尔森的一项调查中,45%的受访者表示,下一次会购买智能手机。”

恩特的看法,与Gartner和IDC等机构的行业分析师、以及摩托罗拉手机业务首席执行官桑杰•贾(Sanjay Jha)等业内人士的意见吻合。

“最终人们都会使用智能手机,”桑杰•贾最近接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示。

在过去18个月内,大张旗鼓的媒体广告,以及网上app店的成功,尤其是苹果(Apple)可提供10万多种免费或廉价app的网店,推动美国智能手机的销量大幅增长。

而恩特预测智能手机销量还将进一步增长。去年年底,21%的美国无线用户使用智能手机,此前一个季度这个比例为19%,而2008年底仅为14%。

他表示:“如果把这些意向性数据,和这类手机不断降价、性能不断增强,以及应用软件激增结合起来,我们就看到了一场海啸的开端。”

“增长将十分迅速。到2011年底,尼尔森预计,美国市场上智能手机将多于多功能手机。”

分析师预计,其它市场也将出现与美国市场类似的增长。

译者/杨远


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031974


Sales of smartphones in the US such as the iPhone, BlackBerry and Motorola Droid will overtake sales of older generation “feature phones'” by the end of next year, according to the Nielson research company.

Smartphone sales in the US will climb steadily over the next 18 months and account for just under 50 per cent of total sales by the autumn of next year, predicts a new report prepared by Roger Entner who is in charge of Nielson's telecom practice.

“We are just at the beginning of a new wireless era where smartphones will become the standard device consumers will use to connect to friends, the internet and the world at large,” he said.

Feature phones, which typically include integrated cameras and multimedia capabilities, still account for over 70 per cent of sales, but sophisticated smartphones, which can be customised with downloaded software or ‘apps', are closing the gap quickly.

“The share of smartphones as a proportion of overall device sales has increased to 29 per cent for phone purchasers in the last six months, and 45 per cent of respondents to a Nielsen survey indicated their next device will be a smartphone,” he said.

His comments echo those of other industry analysts at Gartner and IDC and by phonemakers such as Sanjay Jha, chief executive of Motorola's mobile phone business.

“All phones will be smartphones eventually,” Mr Jha said during a recent interview with the Financial Times.

Heavy media advertising, coupled with the success of online app stores, especially Apple's which now offers over 100,000 free and low-cost apps, has helped fuel the surge in US smartphone sales over the past 18 months.

Nevertheless, Mr Entner forecasts further growth. At the end of last year only 21 per cent of American wireless subscribers were using a smartphone compared with 19 per cent in the previous quarter and just 14 per cent at the end of 2008.

“If we combine these intentional data points with falling prices and increasing capabilities of these devices along with a explosion of applications, we are seeing the beginning of a groundswell.

“This increase will be so rapid that by the end of 2011 Nielsen expects more smartphones in the US market than feature phones,” he said.

Analysts expect growth in the US to be matched in other markets.


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031974/en

谷歌把中国服务中断责任推向政府 Google blames China for blocked searches

周二夜间,在谷歌承认自身技术问题导致中国用户大面积无法使用其搜索引擎几小时后,该公司把责任推向了中国政府。

在谷歌发表前后不一的声明之前,中国用户发现无法使用谷歌的搜索服务。这是自谷歌上周宣布将中国搜索服务搬到香港网站、以规避北京方面对政治敏感搜索的审查以来的第一次。自从作出此举后,谷歌和许多观察人士就一直在担心北京方面的反弹。

昨天傍晚时,在中国境内,即便是搜索“狗”、“家”这样无害的关键词,也只能得到浏览器错误的提示。谷歌后来称,中国搜索服务出现了数小时大面积中断,之后重新恢复。

一开始时,这家美国互联网公司表示责任在己,称其在设置服务器时,无意中使得所有的搜索结果都包含了一个在中国被禁的机构的名称,这触发中国过滤外来信息的“长城防火墙”自动开启,屏蔽了所有搜索内容。

但仅仅几小时之后,谷歌称,“一定是因为长城防火墙发生的某种改变”造成了该现象,因为它在一周前就对服务器作出了上述修改,所以如有问题,不会到昨天才集中爆发。另外,搜索服务后来完全回复,而其间谷歌没有对自己的系统做任何修改。

中国政府对谷歌采取的行动,可能会令该公司在全球最大的互联网市场失去大部分收入。

昨天谷歌搜索服务出现的问题,较过去一周中国用户发现的问题要严重得多。过去一周也出现过类似差错,但每次服务中断仅持续了不到一小时。

谷歌一开始表示,它在全球范围为所有搜索查询添加了一个字符串,以改善搜索结果,而该字符串包括字符rfa,恰巧是自由亚洲电台(Radio Free Asia)的缩写。它说:“由于这个参数含有字符rfa,长城防火墙把这些搜索与自由亚洲电台联系起,而后者在中国是长期遭禁的,因此发生了封堵。”

记者昨晚致电中国工业和信息化部以及国务院新闻办公室请其置评,但没有接到回电。


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031997


Google shifted the blame for widespread unavailability of its search services in China on Tuesday to the authorities in the country, after earlier in the day saying that a technical flaw in its own systems had caused the problem.

The confusion came as many Chinese internet users found themselves unable to reach Google’s services for the first time since it took steps last week to evade Chinese ­censorship of politically sensitive searches. Google, along with many observers, has feared a backlash from ­Beijing.

The problems began in the evening in China when searches for words as harmless as “dog” or “home” turned up a browser error. Google later said its users had experienced widespread disruption for several hours, before full service was resumed.

At first, the US internet company took the blame, saying that it had configured its servers by accident in a way that made all its traffic appear to involve an organisation banned by the Chinese government. This had led to an automatic blocking of its search results by China’s “Great Firewall”, which filters information coming into the mainland, it said.

However, several hours later Google said the problem “must have been as a result of a change in the Great Firewall”, since it had discovered that the technical change to its own systems took place a week ago and so could not have caused yesterday’s problems. It added that full ­service had been resumed, though not as a result of any changes to its own ­systems.

Action by authorities would raise the threat that Google could lose most of its revenue in the market with the world’s largest internet population.

The search problems appeared to mark a sharp escalation of issues users had experienced over the past week. Similar errors have been reported on a number of occasions, though none lasted more than an hour at a time.

Google had originally said that a string of characters it had introduced to all its search queries globally to improve results included the letters rfa, which happen to stand for Radio Free Asia. “Because this parameter contained the letters rfa the great firewall was associating these searches with Radio Free Asia, a service that has been inaccessible in China for a long time – hence the blockage,” Google said.

Calls for comment to the ministry of industry and information technology and the state council information office went unanswered last night.


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031997/en

互联网与国界(上) Closing the frontier

在互联网审查方面,中国也许算头号公敌。但要是问一问硅谷那些知名公司的高管们,还有哪些国家让他们感到不安,许多人嘴里蹦出的第一个名字也许会令人意外:澳大利亚。

澳大利亚总理陆克文(Kevin Rudd)领导的工党政府,以打击儿童色情为由,支持采用成熟民主国家中最严格的互联网过滤器。不少互联网公司担心,这仅仅是一个开端。

澳洲“或许有意对付冒犯基督教的内容”

上周出面与中国审查机构摊牌的谷歌首席法律顾问戴维•德拉蒙德(David Drummond)最近警告称,除了其它在其看来有害的内容,陆克文政府“或许有意对付那些冒犯基督教的内容”。他补充道,在不加严格控制的情况下采用这样的互联网过滤器,这种诱惑“确实像(西方国家出现)危险的滑坡,除非我们能扭转趋势”。

对于澳大利亚正在发生的事情,中国官员也注意到了。中国国务院新闻办公室(SCIO)最近在自己的网站上,以赞许的口吻报道了澳大利亚政府代表本国公民的利益,夺回对网络的控制权。

澳大利亚的现状所突显的事实,与互联网作为自由言论媒介的形象相左。互联网审查范围已远远超出一般的罪犯和可预料的目标,如政治对手。谷歌与中国摊牌,让世人重新关注监控这一在线媒介的最明显企图,但其连锁效应必然会让人注意到,对互联网的管控正在世界范围内悄然增强。

万维网正被割裂成一块块

在公众意识里,互联网仍代表着一个没有国界的世界。网络上信息的自由流动,威胁着民族国家人为设立的边界。但随着各国掌握了互联网监控技术,互联网正迅速被各国法律法规所分割——无论其宗旨是钳制舆论,还是对付色情内容或身份盗窃。正如用户现在看到的那样,万维网如今正被割裂成一块块,根本谈不上是一个世界性的媒介。

哈佛法学院(Harvard law school)的杰克•戈登斯密斯(Jack Goldsmith)表示:“企业必须遵守经营所在国的法律和习俗——这对网络空间和真实空间都是如此。”

德拉蒙德表示,唯一的规避途径就是躲开限制最严的国家。例如,谷歌已避免在越南运行其搜索引擎,以避开像中国一样严格的审查体制。但由于谷歌在土耳其拥有业务,当该国法院命令其封锁YouTube子公司上的某些视频时,谷歌几乎没什么招架之力——法院认为,这些视频冒犯了土耳其国父穆斯塔法•凯末尔•阿塔土尔克(Mustafa Kemal Atatürk)的形象。

谷歌最初决定配合中国的审查机构,现在又在试图避开审查的同时,保留其中国搜索业务,这让人们深刻认识到了这种现实政治。

多伦多大学(University of Toronto)教授、追踪全球审查情况的开放网络促进会(ONI)的创始人罗纳德•德贝特(Ronald Deibert)表示:“人们今后会看到,围绕互联网的未来,全球正发生一场较量。”

ONI的资料显示,目前共有40多个国家在网络上设置了某种壁垒,而不到十年前,这样做的国家寥寥无几。审查最严厉的国家是中国、伊朗、越南、叙利亚、缅甸和突尼斯。即使在那些尚未利用电子手段加以封锁的国家,也开始加大执法力度,要求互联网公司提高自我审查的水平。

谷歌法律顾问在意大利被判缓刑

例如,谷歌的德拉蒙德现在可能要避免去意大利旅行。在2月份一宗里程碑式的案件中,意大利一家法院判处他及另外两名高管6个月缓刑。三人的罪行是未能阻止YouTube传播一段显示一名自闭症儿童受到骚扰的视频。

正如意大利和澳大利亚等例子所显示的,互联网审查并不局限于那些威权政体。“互联网自由有点儿像罗夏测验(Rorschach Test):各人有各人的理解,”中国审查制度专家、普林斯顿大学(Princeton University)信息技术政策中心的麦康瑞(Rebecca MacKinnon)表示。

在这场辩论中,谷歌停止遵从中国审查机构的决定是一道分水岭。北京方面费力过滤大量涌入中国这个全球最大互联网市场的在线内容的做法,为其它政权树立了一个榜样。对于谷歌将搜索业务搬至香港、跳出中国审查机构管辖范围的策略,如果北京方面做出激烈反应,其影响将是广泛的。“这可能进一步鼓励其它威权政体,增强它们的合法性,”德贝特警告称。

互联网自由的拥趸们警告称,中国已开始向其它国家出口其审查技术,该国一些网络安全公司夸耀自己在海外的扩张,在孟加拉国等市场培训警察。不过,很难获得相关证据。

谷歌在25个国家受到限制

就连那些民选政府、对法治更为注重的国家,也以保护本国公民免受在线侵扰为由,开始发威。谷歌一名高管表示,已至少有25国政府对谷歌采取了这样那样的限制。

如何抵制针对互联网自由的压制及不合理的攻击,同时仍给政府留有余地,使其得以保护本国公民不受在线侵扰,解决这个难题并非易事。谷歌作为全球相当大部分在线信息看门人的角色,让其处在了这场辩论的中心。该公司显然已得出结论,是时候划出一条更清晰的界限了。麦康瑞表示:“随着他们与更多的政府闹翻,他们意识到,自己需要一个一致的立场。这不仅关乎中国,还关乎在全球范围如何监管互联网。”

(待续)

译者/何黎


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031989


China may be public enemy number one when it comes to internet censorship. But ask executives at Silicon Valley's leading companies about other countries that cause them concern and the first name that springs to many lips may seem surprising: Australia.

In the name of suppressing child pornography, the Labor government of Kevin Rudd, prime minister, has championed the imposition of some of the toughest internet filters proposed by any established democracy. Many internet companies fear that this is just the thin end of the wedge.

David Drummond, Google's chief legal officer who fronted its showdown with the Chinese censors last week, warned recently that Mr Rudd's government has “designs perhaps on things that were offensive to Christianity”, along with other content it deems harmful. The temptation to adopt filters such as this without strict controls “does seem like the slippery slope [in the west] unless we turn things around”, he added.

Nor is the significance of what is happening in Australia lost on Beijing officials. China's State Council Information Office recently reported approvingly on its own website Canberra's efforts to wrest back control of the web on behalf of its citizens.

The situation in Australia highlights a fact that jars with the image of the internet as medium for free expression. Internet censorship has spread well beyond the usual culprits and predictable targets, such as political opponents. Google's showdown with China has drawn fresh attention to the most conspicuous attempt to regulate the online medium but a knock-on effect will be to draw attention to creeping controls worldwide.

In popular consciousness, the internet still promises a borderless world, a place where the free flow of information threatens artificial barriers erected by nation states. But the web is fast being carved up by national laws and regulations, whether aimed at suppressing opinion, tackling pornography or identity theft, as countries around the world learn the techniques of control. Far from being a universal medium, the world wide web is becoming balkanised – as users are now learning.

“It's true of cyberspace as it is of real space – companies have to bow to the laws and customs of the countries they operate in,” says Jack Goldsmith of Harvard law school.

The only way around this is to avoid the most restrictive countries, says Mr Drummond. Google, for example, has avoided operating its search engine in Vietnam to avoid a censorship regime as strict as China's, he says. But having set up shop in Turkey, it could do little to resist when a local court ordered it to block videos on its YouTube subsidiary deemed offensive to the memory of national patriarch Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.

This realpolitik has been brought home by Google's decision first to bow to Chinese censors, and then last week to attempt to retain its Chinese search presence while dodging the effects of censorship.

“People will now see that there's a global battle going on over the future of the internet,” says Ron Deibert of the University of Toronto and a founder of the OpenNet Initiative, which tracks global censorship.

More than 40 countries now apply some sort of barrier on the web, compared with a handful less than a decade ago, according to the ONI. The most severe censors are China, Iran, Vietnam, Syria, Burma and Tunisia. Even where electronic blocks have not been imposed, laws requiring higher levels of self-censorship are being enforced more aggressively.

Google's Mr Drummond, for instance, would probably want to avoid travelling to Italy right now. In a landmark case, a court there last month handed him and two other executives six-month suspended prison sentences. Their offence was to have failed to prevent YouTube from carrying a video showing the harassment of an autistic child.

As examples such as Italy and Australia show, internet censorship is not limited to repressive regimes. “Internet freedom is a bit of a Rorschach test: it means different things to different people,” says Rebecca MacKinnon of Princeton University's Center for Information Technology Policy and an expert on Chinese censorship.

In this debate, Google's decision to end compliance with Chinese censors is a watershed. Beijing's strenuous efforts to filter the tide of online content washing ashore into the world's largest internet market set a standard for other regimes. If it reacts aggressively to Google's gambit of taking its search business offshore to Hong Kong, beyond the reach of mainland censors, the effects could be widely felt. “It could further embolden other authoritarian regimes and add to their legitimacy,” warns Mr Deibert.

Internet freedom advocates warn that China has exported its censorship technologies to other countries, and some of the country's web security companies have boasted of expanding abroad, training police in markets such as Bangladesh. However, proof is hard to come by.

Even countries with elected governments and a stronger claim to following the rule of law have taken to flexing their muscles in the cause of protecting their citizens from online abuses. For Google, that has brought restrictions of one kind or another from no fewer than 25 governments, one company executive says.

Working out how to counter repressive and unwarranted attacks on internet freedom, while still leaving governments room to protect their citizens from online abuse, will not be easy. Google, whose role as gatekeeper for much of the world's online information puts it at the centre of the debate, has apparently decided it is time to stake out a clearer line. “As they butt up against more governments, they are realising they need a consistent position,” Ms MacKinnon says. “This is not just about China – it's about how the internet is going to be regulated globally.”

(to be continued)


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031989/en

讨好主权财富基金 SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS COURTED IN DEBT SALES

本月,德国强大的债务管理局的局长卡尔•海因茨•道贝(Carl Heinz Daube)做了一件人们在5年前几乎无法想象或认为没有必要做的事情。

他来到中国和新加坡,与可能有意购买德国国债的两家全球最大的投资机构举行了会谈——这是为了取悦主权财富基金等一批新出现的投资者。

这股风气正在迅速蔓延。直到不久前,德国之类一直以拥有AAA级债务评级(收益率也相对较低)为荣的国家,还觉得没有必要讨好全球投资者。

但是随着政府债务负担不断加重,欧元区又因希腊财政危机而动荡不已,要求债务管理部门改善销售技巧的压力在不断增长。

道贝的中新之行表明,即便是大型经济体也需要培育债券买家,并与持有数十亿美元政府债券的主权财富基金等投资者建立关系。

中国国家外汇管理局(SAFE)和新加坡政府投资公司(GIC)所管理的资产总共估计有6000亿美元,其中约20%是政府债券。

道贝表示:“如今我们不得不进行更大规模的举债,因此对我们来说,与投资者见面是非常有意义的,这样我们可以回答他们的问题。他们很欣赏这一点。”

英国债务管理办公室(Debt Management Office)主管罗伯特•斯蒂曼(Robert Stheeman)补充称:“与投资者交流始终是件非常重要的工作,无论是与国内还是与国际投资者交流。如今,财政部和债务管理办公室比以往任何时候都更需要接触投资者,以向他们解释政府的财政立场和借款计划。”

与道贝一样,斯蒂曼去年年底会晤了亚洲若干重要的投资者,以便为英国大选前那关键的几个月做好准备。预计英国将在6周后举行大选。

这两人都认识到,他们再也不能只是简单地宣布进行国债拍卖,然后坐等国内外投资者前来购买。

这一点在去年得到了证明:由于各国为了纾困银行而大举发行国债,以及经济财政方案开始充斥市场,德国和英国的国债拍卖均曾出现流拍。

投资银行也意识到了债务管理机构希望更多接触债券买家的新需求。例如,去年花旗集团(Citigroup)在东京组织了一次会议,会上5家欧洲债务管理机构对购买了它们政府证券的100位日本投资组合经理表示了感谢。

随着监管机构对金融市场的某些领域展开整治,而其它一些领域产生的回报又不能达到金融危机前的水平,银行已着眼国债市场中的赚钱机会。

这促使许多银行想方设法获得一级交易商地位——这将使它们有权直接参与国债拍卖,从而能够通过买卖国债牟利。由于各国创纪录发行的国债提升了市场规模,这种做法已变得越来越有利可图。

近几个月来,有9家银行在美国、英国和欧洲获得了一级交易商地位。其中包括:加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)在美国;野村证券(Nomura)在美国和英国;Jefferies在英国、德国和荷兰;法国兴业银行(Société Générale)在爱尔兰和奥地利;荷兰银行(ABN Amro)在荷兰;瑞士银行(UBS)在爱尔兰;桑坦德银行(Santander)在法国;法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)在丹麦。

一位资深银行家表示:“政府大规模发行国债的确为银行提供了机遇——它们既能从购买国债的财团那里赚取手续费,又能从上升的波动性中获得交易机会。”

“大多数银行已加强了自己的固定收益与政府债券部门,同时裁减了其它部门的规模,比如因金融危机而遭受打击的资产证券化部门。”

在这种新的背景下,各国政府正日益寻求主权财富基金的帮助,把它们视为购买本国国债的理想群体——尤其是在近几个月许多主权财富基金加大国债购买额的情况下。

一家新的团体——官方货币及金融制度论坛(Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum,简称:OMFIF)也由此创立。该团体的具体使命是将各国央行和主权财富基金召集到一起,帮助债务管理机构销售债券。

OMFIF本月在法兰克福组织了一次会议。逾50位央行行长、主权财富基金官员和资产管理人荟萃一堂,目的是促进这些机构在资产配置和管理等领域的对话。

OMFIF计划于5月份在吉隆坡召开类似会议。

政府债务管理机构讨好主权财富基金的必要性只可能会增加,因为今后几年国债发行规模预计将保持创纪录水平,而且人们也越来越担心所谓的“挤出效应”——巨额债务耗尽市场的吸收能力。

然而,道贝表示:“我认为我们不会落到各国政府彼此‘挤出'的地步。但如果政府仍然大举发债,那么我们在两、三年后可能会发现,国债面临着来自私营部门债务的一定程度的竞争。”

译者/君悦


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031986


This month Carl Heinz Daube, the head of Germany's formidable debt management agency, did something that would have seemed almost unimaginable – or unnecessary – five years ago.

He travelled to China and Singapore for a meeting with two of the world's biggest investors – as part of an attempt to charm a new pool of investors, such as sovereign wealth funds – who might be willing to buy German government bonds.

The trend is spreading fast. Until recently, countries such as Germany, which have long prided themselves on having a triple A debt rating – and relatively low yields – felt little need to court global investors.

But as government debt burdens spiral higher, and the eurozone quivers as a result of the fiscal turmoil that surrounds Greece, the pressure on debt managers to refine their sales skills is rising.

What Carl Heinz Daube's trip shows is that even the big economies need to cultivate the buyers of their debt and build up their relationships with investors, such as the SWFs, which hold billions of dollars in government bonds.

China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange, or Safe, and Singapore's Government Investment Corporation, or GSIC, have between them an estimated $600bn in assets under management, with roughly 20 per cent held in government bonds.

Mr Daube says: “We have to borrow much higher volumes these days. Hence, it makes a lot of sense for us to meet investors, so we can answer their questions. They appreciate this.”

Robert Stheeman, head of the UK Debt Management Office, adds: “It has always been important to talk to investors, both domestic and international. But today, the Treasury and the DMO more than ever need to engage with investors to explain the government's fiscal position and borrowing programme.”

Mr Stheeman, like Mr Daube, met key investors in Asia at the end of last year as he prepared for the critical months ahead of a UK election, expected in six weeks' time.

Both men realise they can no longer simply announce a government bond auction and rely on domestic and international investors to buy their securities.

This was demonstrated last year when both Germany and the UK saw government bond auctions fail as the overwhelming supply of sovereign debt to pay for bank bail-outs and economic fiscal packages began to swamp the market.

Investment banks are also aware of the new demands on debt managers to make themselves more accessible to the people who buy their bonds. Last year, for example, Citigroup arranged a conference in Tokyo, where five European debt managers addressed 100 Japanese portfolio managers on the merits of buying their government securities.

With the regulators moving to crack down on some parts of the market, and others failing to produce the returns seen before the financial crisis, banks see opportunities to make money in the government debt markets.

This has prompted many banks to seek primary dealer status, which gives them the right to take part directly in government bond auctions, allowing them to buy and sell securities for a profit. This has become increasingly lucrative because of the higher volumes due to record issuance.

In recent months, nine banks have won primary dealer status in the US, UK and Europe. They include RBC Capital Markets in the US; Nomura in the US and UK; Jefferies in the UK, Germany and The Netherlands; Société Générale in Ireland and Austria; ABN Amro in The Netherlands; UBS in Ireland; Santander in France and BNP Paribas in Denmark.

“The large amount of government debt does provide opportunities for banks, both in the ability to make fees from government bond syndications, and the trading opportunities from the increase in volatility,” says one senior banker.

“Most banks have boosted their fixed income and government bond desks at the expense of other areas, such as securitisation that have been hit in the wake of the financial crisis.”

In this new climate, governments are increasingly turning to the SWFs as the ideal group to buy their bonds, particularly as many SWFs have increased their buying of government securities in recent months.

It has also led to the creation of a new group called the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (Omfif), which has the specific task of bringing central banks and SWFs together to help debt managers sell their bonds.

This month saw a gathering, arranged by Omfif, of more than 50 central bankers, sovereign wealth fund officials and asset managers in Frankfurt with the purpose of improving dialogue between these groups in areas such as asset allocation and management.

Omfif is planning a similar gathering in Kuala Lumpur in May.

The need for government debt managers to woo SWFs is only likely to increase as government bond issuance is expected to remain at record levels for years to come, with increasing worries over the so-called crowding out effect, where the vast amount of debt exhausts the capacity of the market to absorb it.

However, Mr Daube says: “I don't think we will ever reach a stage where governments are crowding each other out, but we could reach a point in two or three years' time where sovereigns may face quite a reasonable competition from the private sector if government issuance remains high.” 


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031986/en

G20五成员国含蓄批评中国 CHINA REPRIMAND FROM G20 LEADERS

20国集团(G20)的五大成员国(包括美国和英国),昨日对中国提出含蓄批评,指责中国在经济协定上倒退。该集团由全球主要经济体组成。

这些国家的领导人致函G20其它国家,对今年进展缓慢表示失望。他们警告称:"如果没有合作行动,以做出必要的调整,实现(强劲且可持续的增长),未来危机和低增长的风险将继续存在。"

G20官员表示,此信意在扭转相关国际进程势头趋弱的局面。在信上署名的领导人包括:今年将先后主持G20两次峰会的加拿大总理史蒂芬・哈珀(Stephen Harper)和韩国总统李明博(Lee Myung-bak)、美国总统巴拉克・奥巴马(Barack Obama)、英国首相戈登・布朗(Gordon Brown)以及法国总统尼古拉・萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)。

加拿大和韩国担心,它们将在6月和11月分别主持的G20峰会,可能达不到人们的期望。

五国领导人特别提到了汇率与缓解贸易失衡之间的关系,此举可能令中国不快。G20在2009年曾回避这一问题,以确保在伦敦和匹兹堡峰会达成协议。

信上说:"我们需要设计各项合作战略,共同努力,以确保我们的财政、货币、汇率、贸易乃至结构性政策在整体上与强劲、可持续和平衡的增长吻合。"

此信发布之际,适逢华盛顿正在进行一场激烈的辩论,主题是白宫应如何在外人眼中的人民币低估问题上对付中国。美国一些议员正加大分贝,呼吁奥巴马政府在一份即将出炉的报告中,将中国列为汇率操纵国。

参议院民主党第三号人物查尔斯・舒默(Charles Schumer)本周再次主张通过一份法案,让美国方面在计算针对进口商品的反补贴关税时,计入估算的汇率失调因素。

中国除了拒绝在汇率问题上让步外,今年还一直在阻挠G20进程。中国阻碍了国际货币基金组织(IMF)发布一份报告的努力。IMF总裁多米尼克・斯特劳斯-卡恩(Dominique Strauss-Kahn)在1月份告诉英国《金融时报》,这份报告将得出结论认为,全球各国的增长战略"在整体上行不通"。

五国领导人在信中提到这一进程进展缓慢,敦促G20所有成员国"快速行动",以"作出有力的报告,说明我们每一个国家能够为强劲、可持续和平衡的全球增长做出什么贡献"。

译者/和风


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031995


Five prominent members of the Group of 20 leading economies, including the US and UK, sent a coded rebuke to China yesterday against backsliding on economic agreements.

In a letter to the rest of the G20 that shows frustration at slow progress this year, the leaders warned: "Without co-operative action to make the necessary adjustments to achieve [strong and sustainable growth], the risk of future crises and low growth remain."

G20 officials said the letter � signed by Stephen Harper and Lee Myung-bak, the Canadian and South Korean leaders who will chair the group's two summits this year, Barack Obama, US president, Gordon Brown, UK prime minister, and Nicolas Sarkozy, French president � was an attempt to restore flagging momentum to the international process.

Ottawa and Seoul are concerned that the G20 summits they will host, in June and November respectively, might fail to live up to expectations.

In a move that will irritate China, the five leaders specifically raised the issue of exchange rates in relation to reducing trade imbalances, a topic the G20 avoided in 2009 to help secure agreement at the London and Pittsburgh summits.

"We need to design co-operative strategies and work together to ensure that our fiscal, monetary, foreign exchange, trade and structural policies are collectively consistent with strong, sustainable and balanced growth," the letter said.

It has been released in the middle of an intense debate in Washington about how the White House should confront China over the perceived strength of the renminbi. Some lawmakers are ratcheting up calls for China to be designated a currency manipulator in a forthcoming report.

Charles Schumer, the third most senior Democrat in the Senate, this week again advocated a bill that would allow the US to include estimates of currency misalignment when calculating anti-subsidy duties to be imposed on imports.

As well as refusing to budge on its currency, China has been obstructing the G20 process this year. It has hampered efforts by the International Monetary Fund to issue a report that Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director, told the Financial Times in January would conclude that national strategies for growth around the world "will not add up".

The leaders' letter makes reference to the slow progress of this process, urging all G20 members to "move quickly" to "report robustly on what each of us can do to contribute to strong sustainable and balanced global growth".


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031995/en

股指期货和融资融券影响何在? Beijing gears up for key reforms on equity trades

在经过多年筹划和数次“发令枪”误响之后,中国监管机构终于即将为本国股市投资者推出一系列新工具。中国股市向来波动较大。

推出股指期货、融资融券交易这三项创新,是中国资本市场中具有里程碑意义的事件。

上海证券交易所(SSE)总经理张育军上周末在北京向记者表示,中国最快将于周三启动融资融券业务。融资融券交易允许交易者使用较高的杠杆比例,并通过市场的上涨和下跌获利。

中国金融期货交易所(China Financial Futures Exchange)上周五宣布,从4月16日开始,投资者还将首次可以进行股指期货交易——这是押注市场下跌的另一种方式。

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)中国策略师娄刚(Jerry Lou)表示:“通过这些改革,我们向一个真正的市场迈出了一大步。”他认为,随着时间的推移,中国股市将不那么容易出现泡沫,因为投资者将能够做空他们认为估值过高的股票。

上海股市昨日录得7周以来的最大涨幅,因为市场乐观地认为,这些改革措施将惠及作为首批股指期货产品标的的沪深300指数成分股中的大盘股。近几周来,交易费收入增加的前景已令中国券商类股受益。

对监管机构而言,这些改革旨在刺激创新,并使中国股市更符合西方标准——以努力使上海在2020年前成为一个全球金融中心。具有讽刺意味的是,在金融危机期间,卖空交易在西方国家名声不佳,而且监管机构仍在担忧卖空交易的影响。在金融危机期间,英国、美国和欧洲其它国家全都限制卖空交易,因为担忧卖空交易会加剧市场(尤其是金融类股)的暴跌。

这并不是说中国一开始就会大胆冒进。麦格理集团(Macquarie)的中国策略师迈克尔•库尔茨(Michael Kurtz)表示,这些最新举措体现了中国“小规模试水”的典型做法。

中国政府开始时只允许6家券商开展融资融券试点,它们是国泰君安(Guotai Junan Securities)、国信证券(Guosen Securities)、中信证券(Citic Securities)、光大证券(Everbright Securities)、海通证券(Haitong Securities)和广发证券(Guangfa Securities)。

此外,中国大多数投资者将不能参与此类交易。任何使用这些新工具的投资者必须开立一个不低于50万元人民币(合7.3万美元)的账户——这使得构成中国震荡市场骨干的大批散户无缘参与交易。

参与者还需要开立证券交易账户至少18个月,并且必须通过资格测试,以表明他们明白其中的风险。

迄今为止,申请融资融券交易的人数增长缓慢。上海媒体报道称,在上述6家获得许可的券商上周首次可以开户时,每家的开户人数不足10人。

库尔茨表示:“最初的规模这么小,至少在一开始的影响可能会微不足道。问题是(监管机构)多久才有胆量扩大(这一项目)?”

历史经验表明,他们将会极其谨慎地推进。官员们对1995年中国国债期货市场的崩盘(开展交易仅两年后)仍心有余悸。国债期货的崩盘一直被归咎于市场设计存在缺陷、管理不善和市场参与者操纵价格。

实际上,《中国私有化:中国股市内幕》(Privatising China: Inside China's Stock Markets)一书的作者侯伟(Fraser Howie)表示,自首次提出融资融券交易计划,已经过去了5年时间,而股指期货计划的提出则可以追溯到10年前。

侯伟表示:“与中国的许多事情一样,即使实施这些改革,它们也不会总能从一开始就成功,甚至根本就不会成功。”

侯伟举例说,2003年,中国政府推出了允许外资购买中国证券的合格境外机构投资者(QFII)机制。7年过去了,中国政府只批准了不到100家外资机构,授予的投资额度不足200亿美元——不到中国股市总市值的1%。

这些外国投资者不清楚自己是否可以参与卖空和股指期货交易,尽管所有人都希望从中分一杯羹。

对于这些新型交易会对素以波动著称的中国股市产生何种影响,人们也存在激烈的争论。中国股市去年飙升80%,而前年则下跌了65%。

一种观点认为,能够做空估值过高的股票,将抑制市场的投机热情(以及随之而来的崩盘)。但这种观点并未获得广泛认同,而且也不符合西方国家的长期历史表现——它们虽然有成熟的卖空和股指期货机制,但仍然会出现泡沫和崩盘。

更有可能造成的影响是交易量将会上升,因为一旦能够对冲风险,对冲基金和其它机构投资者将会有更大的交易动机。摩根士丹利表示,台湾和日本等其它市场的经验表明,长期而言,交易量会出现高达50%的增长。

但这绝非一个定论,尤其是考虑大中国投资者的交易量已经比西方高得多。娄刚表示:“在中国,即使是机构投资者也表现得像个散户。他们说起话来都像是沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett),做起事却像是乔治•索罗斯(George Soros)。”

译者/君悦


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031976


After years on the drawing board and several false starts, Chinese regulators are finally close to introducing a set of new tools for traders in the country's volatile equity markets.

The three innovations, consisting of the introduction of stock index futures, short selling and margin trading, amount to milestones for the country's capital markets.

China will launch margin trading and short selling – tools that allow traders to use greater leverage and to profit from falling as well as rising markets – as soon as Wednesday, Zhang Yujun, president of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, told reporters in Beijing over the weekend.

Investors will also, for the first time, be able to trade stock index futures – another way to bet on market downturns – from April 16, the China Financial Futures Exchange announced on Friday.

“We are making a big step toward a real market with these reforms,” says Jerry Lou, China strategist at Morgan Stanley. Over time, he reckons, the Chinese equity market will become less bubble-prone because investors will be able to short stocks they view as excessively valued.

Shanghai stocks jumped the most in seven weeks yesterday on optimism that the reforms would benefit large capitalisation stocks that are part of the CSI 300 index, on which the first index futures will be based. Shares in Chinese brokerages have benefited in recent weeks from the prospect of increased trading revenues.

For regulators, the reforms are aimed at spurring innovation and bringing the Chinese stock market closer into line with western norms – part of a drive to transform Shanghai into a global financial centre by 2020. There is an irony here because short selling received a bad press in the west during the financial crisis and its effects continue to worry regulators. UK, US and European nations all clamped down on short selling during the crisis over fears it was exacerbating market slumps, particularly in financial stocks.

Not that China is likely to do anything bold at the outset. The latest moves are typical of China's “start small” approach, says Michael Kurtz, China strategist at Macquarie.

For a start, initially, the margin trading and short selling pilot programmes have been limited to just six brokerages: Guotai Junan Securities, Guosen Securities, CITIC Securities, Everbright Securities, Haitong Securities and Guangfa Securities.

What is more, the majority of Chinese investors will not be able to participate. Any investor using the new tools must open an account with at least Rmb500,000 ($73,000) – ruling out the hordes of small retail investors who are the lifeblood of China's volatile markets.

Applicants also need to have held a securities trading account for at least 18 months and must pass an eligibility test to show they understand the risks.

So far, applications for margin trading and short selling accounts have trickled in slowly. Fewer than than 10 people opened accounts at each of the six licensed brokers when they first became available last week, Shanghai newspapers reported.

“This is starting so small that it may have only a negligible impact at least at first,” says Mr Kurtz. “The question is how quickly will [regulators] feel emboldened to expand [the programme]?”

History suggests they will proceed with extreme caution. Officials are still haunted by the collapse of China's government bond futures market in 1995 – just two years after such trading was introduced. Its demise has been attributed to flawed market design, weak governance and price manipulation by market participants.

Indeed, five years have passed since plans for short selling and margin trading were first proposed, says Fraser Howie, author of Privatizing China: Inside China's Stock Markets. Plans for stock index futures go back a decade.

“Like many things in China, even when these reforms are launched they're not always a success from day one, or even at all,” Mr Howie says.

As an example, Mr Howie points to the qualified foreign institutional investor (QFII) scheme that Beijing introduced in 2003 to allow foreigners to buy Chinese securities. Seven years later, fewer than 100 foreign institutions have been approved and less than $20bn of investment quotas have been awarded – equivalent to less than 1 per cent of the Chinese stock market.

Those foreign investors do not know whether they will be allowed to participate in short selling and index futures, although all want a piece of the action.

There is also heavy debate over what effect, if any, the new types of trading will have on China's notoriously volatile markets, which surged 80 per cent last year after falling 65 per cent the year before.

One line of thinking is that the ability to short overvalued stocks will temper the market's spectacular booms (and subsequent busts). But this view is not widespread and runs contrary to a long history of bubbles and crashes in the west, where short selling and stock futures are well established.

A more likely effect is that trading volumes will rise because hedge funds and other institutional investors will have a greater incentive to trade once they can hedge their risks. Experiences in other markets, such as Taiwan and Japan, suggest that trading volumes could, in the long term, increase by as much as 50 per cent, according to Morgan Stanley.

But that is by no means a given, especially since trading volumes among Chinese investors are already much higher than those in the west. “In China even institutional investors act like retail investors,” says Mr Lou of Morgan Stanley. “They all talk like Warren Buffett and act like George Soros.”


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031976/en