2012年1月30日

小孩走路跌倒了你会怎么说?

10年下半年以来,股市十分低迷,看了新浪博客圈里不少理性投资者的年度小结,持平不亏损的已经很不容易,赚钱的更是罕见,普通散户的业绩可想而知了。于是我们又在媒体上看到各种熟悉的字眼,譬如上市公司"铁公鸡"不分红、发行制度糟糕、退市制度有名无实等等,甚至又有人开始高喊价值投资理念不适用国内市场恶劣的投资环境。满地抱怨,仿佛这些东西就是股市低迷的原因,全然忘记了同样是他们,在06-07大牛市时一片歌舞升平、"黄金十年"的豪言壮语。这段时间我正在写关于投资方面的毕业论文,想想现在这种低迷环境,能留下来静心看我文章参与讨论的,都是比较理性的,所以乘机和大家议议投资理念方面的东西,少一些牛市的嘈杂,更好。

近日看到全国人大常委会前副委员长成思危讲到一个比喻,觉得很贴切:"投资者一定要注意不断学习,在股市里面不断学习。我们股市里确实有个别豪赌不服输,股市里赚点钱就了不起了,行情好的时候股市里差不多一半股神,一旦股市掉了没了,不是检查自己问题,他是怨天尤人(怪制度和政策),这是最糟糕。我们有些专家迎合这些人的心理,跟着骂,这不对。对小孩子走路,摔跤了,有的大人说这地不好,这么说绝对学不到东西。所以我们要提高素质,要求投资者在股市操作中,股市的波动中总结经验。"这是我看到的最有说服力的一个比喻了。那些高喊价值投资不适合国内市场的论调,在我看来,就好比说"看清楚路面、检查鞋带有没有系好、小心翼翼寻找稍平一些的地面部分"这些走路理念不适合小孩子走崎岖不平的路一样的可笑,抛开我们是否应该责怪市政部门为什么不把路面搞搞平不谈,难道我们应该教小孩子蒙上眼睛跳着走路?在教育小孩如何走路上,我们大部分人都不会是傻子,但在股市呢?同样的问题却有不同的解答。德国股神科斯托拉尼说的好,即使最有智慧的人走进赌场或股市大厅,都会变得愚蠢。

国内的制度不规范、公司质量不高,这些问题是客观存在的,我找的一些参考论文大部分也都谈了这些问题,大家都是在埋怨国内环境不好。但制度、市场环境的规范将是一个长期的过程,短期内是不可能改变的,欧美的规范也不是一日而成。更何况即便欧美市场规范的制度下,他们的市场照样仍有泡沫、投机,譬如六七十年代漂亮50泡沫,譬如安然财务造假,譬如九十年末科技网络泡沫,譬如2010年5月6日黑色星期四。价值投资直到今天仍然属于华尔街的少数分子,不过就我所知,大部分长期成功、赚钱的著名投资者、基金经理,都是价值投资思路,包括美国股神巴菲特、欧洲股神安东尼波顿、香港股神谢海清、马来西亚股神冯时能,还有聂夫、林奇、邓普顿、卡拉曼、马尔基尔等等。尤其是马来西亚的市场环境跟国内很像,也是新兴市场,同样不规范、制度环境缺失、投机盛行,但冯时能采用价值投资思路却获得了长期成功。可见,制度、市场环境跟你用不用价值投资理念根本没有半点关系。在目前国内非理性投机盛行的情况下,更应该倡导理性的价值投资。

投资者应该如何适应这个市场,应该如何理性的投资。我找来找去,发现投资者教育这方面的论文还是比较少的,证监会等管理层倒是强调投资者要理性投资、教育投资者,但只会简单的说"股市有风险",这种填鸭式教育基本上被投资者当做耳边风,没人会认真听。大部分论文都是在建议管理层应该怎么怎么做,制度应该怎么怎么设计,仿佛这些人都有上帝般的思考。然而真正站在投资者角度去思考自身行为存在什么问题的,仍是极少数。 也许这就是人的本性,犯了错误吃了亏,首先想到的是找客观原因。当然,如果是针对管理层、政策制定者的建议,那么强调国内市场存在种种问题是可以的,但往往这些作者恐怕更多的还是在跟着大众投资者的想法走,写一些他们想看的、想发泄的东西而已。

我更在意投资者自身如何学习、适应市场环境,以及坚定理性投资的信念,注意企业自身的经营情况研究和估值方面的研究。就像成思危说的,应该多指导小孩子如何适应地面,如何走好路,而不是过多的去讨论地怎么崎岖不平。再说尽管国内股市的地不怎么平坦,但国内市场好公司其实不少,根据上证所网站公布的一个数据,过去八年间,上证180权重指数的年化收益率达到了惊人的25.96%。这180家公司基本上都是好公司。所以我的观点是国内股市制度的确不怎么规范,市场环境的确不怎么好,但更大的问题还是出在投资者自己身上,如果以价值投资的思路低价买入,并长期投资云南白药、万科这些好公司,不要炒新股,不要炒ST,实际上过去十年赚十倍是很轻松的事。

我现在的投资理念是以比较低的价格买进有价值(包括成长性价值、周期价值、特殊事件打击恢复价值)的公司,通常是在这些有价值的公司出现暂时的困难或者周期底部或者大熊市期间买入,然后在大家发现它的价值哄抢抬高价格到高估时再卖出。我坚持这种理念已经五年多,跨越了两次牛市两次熊市,算下来平均每年赚20%以上,07年末股市是严重高估的,我因为贪婪没卖,如果卖掉的话,可以让我近五年的平均成绩上升到每年40%以上。所以我觉得价值投资是适用国内市场的,尽管国内市场确实制度不够健全、财务造假等很普遍,只是需要根据国内股市的具体情况灵活应用,而不是简单照搬。如果按照格雷厄姆的具体方法,都要以PB低于0.5的情况买进价值股,那根本没法在国内投资,没有一个股票满足条件。在我看来,许多持有价值投资不适合国内市场观点的人,要么他们对价值投资一知半解,要么就是教条主义,根本没理解真正的理性投资理念。


http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_53c917790100wrsh.html

龙年投资风水 Feng shui investing: year of the dragon

兔年已经过去,人们开始转而关注龙年的运势。据说龙在中国是吉祥的象征,但前提是它天性中凶猛的部分能受到抑制。

投资者是否应感到害怕?抑或,神龙会带动股市一飞冲天?

里昂证券(CLSA)船运业分析师、偶尔也客串风水大师的周子诺(Philip Chow)对水晶球进行研究之后,用中国古代风水术对龙年进行了预测。

顺便提一句,去年是艰难的一年。兔子的胆小一定让大多数投资者印象深刻——这种动物很容易受到惊吓,每当有人提到EFSF(欧洲金融稳定安排)这四个字母,它就吓得躲回了洞中。兔年也饱受五行失衡之苦,金火过旺。中国股市表现不佳。

不过,作为12生肖中唯一虚构的动物,龙的秉性更加坚定。另外,龙年缺火,金也不足,大体上应该较为平稳。

不过,龙年上半年似乎运势不佳,龙(2012年天干的“壬”属水,地支的“辰”是生肖的龙,五行中的水属黑色,故这里的龙确切说是“黑水龙”)头一动不动地埋在水里。

夏季的几个月将遭遇酷暑,这意味着上半年市场都将表现平平,最差的局面可能出现在7月。投资者应在5月份抛售离场。

另一个让人不安的消息是,德国总理安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)是木马年(1954年)生人,与水龙年不和。实际上,周子诺预测道,默克尔的龙年运程显示“今年特别不顺”。由此推算,欧元区危机会继续全面加深,有可能在夏季升级。

不过,龙年本质上是转折之年,转变之大、速度之疾正是龙年的特点。

8月应会出现一个拐点,这是龙头出水、直飞冲天的月份。第三季度会出现强劲的反弹。

将成为下一任领导人的习近平的运势,也让我们看到了更大的希望。龙是改朝换代之兆。历史上,许多新的领导人上台前常常“见龙”,并因此得到上天的庇佑。习近平的龙年运程不错——虽失之平淡。即便中国真的要崩盘,也不会是在这一年。

金钱将从东向西流动。预计中国将继续抢购欧元区债券和欧洲资产,资金将继续流向曼哈顿的一套套豪华公寓。美国国债收益率将保持低位。

行业方面,主水、木,也就是说要投资澳门博彩业、航运业、旅游业等与水相关的行业,以及与木相关的农业和时尚业。特别值得关注的是水泥业——刚好是水和土(龙属土)的结合。

中国人有句话说:神龙见首不见尾,这是因为龙的速度很快。到12月份,反弹将会结束,龙年剩余的几个月,龙可能会安静休整。

身穿丝绸褂的周子诺特意强调,里昂证券的这个风水指数,大家看看则已,不可当真。实际上,去年的预测就不太灵。

不过,有心人看到“8月拐点”的预测时,不妨把杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)会议在笔记本里标上一笔。假如本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)宣布进行第三轮量化宽松(QE3),可能就会改变整个局势。

译者/何黎


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001042885


 

With the year of the rabbit drawing to a close, thoughts turn to the prospects for the year of the dragon. Dragons are said to be highly auspicious, provided their natural ferocity can be kept in check.

Should investors be scared? Or do the soaring wings of the mythical beast offer equity markets a flight into the stratosphere?

CLSA’s Philip Chow, shipping analyst and occasional feng shui master, offered up his findings after a look into the crystal ball using the ancient Chinese art of feng shui.

As a quick reminder, last year was tough. Few investors will miss the timidity of the rabbit – an easily frightened animal, who bolted underground at the very mention of the letters EFSF. The year was also burdened by elemental imbalance, with a dangerous excess of fire and metal. Chinese markets performed poorly.

But the dragon – the only mythical beast among the 12 zodiac signs – is made of sterner stuff. What’s more, 2012 in has no fire in its charts at all, and only a touch of metal, making it a generally smoother ride.

However, the first half of the year looks troubling, with the dragon – a black water dragon to be precise – keeping its head firmly underwater.

The summer months will suffer from a scorching amount of heat, meaning the market is set for a lacklustre first six months, and July could see the worst of it. Sell in May and go away.

Another worrisome reading comes for Angela Merkel. The German chancellor is (zodiac-wise) a wooden horse, and is thus unsuited to a water dragon year. In fact, Chow says Merkel’s charts predict a “shocker of a year”. Assume the eurozone crisis continues throughout, perhaps escalating in the summer.

The dragon, however, is essentially a gamechanger, and is characterised by both dramatic turns of direction, and extreme speed.

August should see an inflection point, with the dragon bursting out of the sea and soaring into the sky. The third quarter rally should be a powerful one.

The reading for heir-apparent Xi Jinping offers further hope. Dragons herald a change in emperor. Historically, new leaders would often “see dragons” just before assuming power, and thus have the blessing of the gods. Xi’s charts look fine – if somewhat unspectacular. If China is about to crash, it won’t be this year.

The flow of money is set to head from east to west. Expect China to keep snapping up eurozone bonds and European assets, and expect capital outflows to continue making their way into Manhattan penthouses. Treasury yields will remain low.

As for sectors, it’s all about water and wood. That means load up on water-related sectors like Macao gaming, shipping, tourism, and woody plays in agriculture and fashion. Of particular interest should be cement – a neat mixture of water and earth.

There’s a saying in Chinese – you can never see the dragon’s head and tail at the same time. That’s because it moves so fast. The rally will run out of steam by December, and dragon is likely to rest for the remainder of the lunar year.

The silk-clad Chow is keen to stress that CLSA’s feng shui index is presented with tongue firmly in cheek. Indeed, last year’s predictions were somewhat off.

But those pondering an August inflection point would do well to mark the Jackson Hole address in the diaries. Any announcement of QE3 from Ben Bernanke could be just the catalyst needed to turn things around.


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001042885/en

2012年1月29日

达沃斯上的冷静声音 A sober look at global economy as mood turns optimistic in Davos

本届世界经济论坛(WEF)的“全球经济展望”讨论,议题是世界经济面临的各项挑战,由英国《金融时报》首席经济评论员马丁•沃尔夫(Martin Wolf)主持。参与讨论的嘉宾阵容十分庞大,大到无法展开深入探讨。他们包括国际货币基金组织(IMF)、世界银行(World Bank)和金融稳定委员会(FSB)的负责人,但有趣的是,没有一个人代表欧元区国家。相比达沃斯论坛上普遍越来越乐观的情绪,这场讨论则要冷静得多。

在这场讨论上,三个观点比较突出。

1. 人们普遍认同,欧洲央行(ECB)为银行提供无限量长期贷款的行动,为欧元区解决其危机赢得了大量时间。金融稳定委员会主席、加拿大央行(Bank of Canada)行长马克•卡尼(Mark Carney)提出了一个大胆预测,即他认为发生大灾难的风险已经过去了。“(如今)欧洲不太可能发生雷曼式的灾难。这一点很重要。”其他嘉宾也都持类似观点。

2. 非欧元区代表明确表示,欧元区必须首先采取更多举措,建立一道有效的防火墙,阻断危机蔓延,只有欧元区这样做了之后,其它国家才有可能考虑向IMF提供更多资源,或付出其它努力以表现更大范围的世界团结。英国财政大臣乔治•奥斯本(George Osborne)再次表示要“先看看它们钱的颜色”;IMF总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)戏剧性地举起她的手袋,向在座嘉宾为IMF筹资,但也认同欧元区必须先做更多。发展中国家代表的建议则要直接得多。他们指出,当年他们国家发生危机的时候,政府采取了一些艰难措施,欧元区也不应例外。

3. 危机尚未结束,尽管达沃斯和金融市场上的情绪已变得更加乐观。香港特首曾荫权(Donald Tsang)最好地表达了这一点。他对在场听众表示,香港预算平衡,储备相当于两年的公共支出,就业充分,增长非常快。“看起来一切都非常健康,“他说,又补充道:“但我从未像现在这样恐惧。”他的意思是,在这个彼此紧密相连的世界,他不敢保证,欧洲如果崩盘,不会严重到把像香港这样看似稳健的经济体也拖入无底深渊。

达沃斯上的乐观情绪看似诱人,但全球经济仍困难重重的现实还是挥之不去。

译者/何黎


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001042860


 

At the global economy session at the World Economic Forum, chaired by the FT's chief economic commentator Martin Wolf, a very large panel – too large for a proper discussion – discussed the challenges facing the global economy. Including the heads of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Financial Stability Board, but interestingly no-one representing a eurozone country, the debate was more sober than the general mood in Davos of increasing optimism.

Three things stood out.

1. There was general agreement that the European Central Bank’s actions to provide unlimited long-term funding for banks has bought a significant amount of time for the eurozone to sort out its crisis. Mark Carney, head of the FSB and governor of the Bank of Canada, made a bold prediction now he thought the risks of a catastrophe had passed. “There is not [now] going to be a Lehman-style event in Europe. That matters”. Similar sentiments were shared among the panel.

2. Non-eurozone representatives are clear the eurozone must do more to build a deployable firewall to prevent contagion before they will consider additional resources to the IMF or other efforts to express wider global solidarity. George Osborne, UK chancellor, made the point again about wanting to “see the colour of their money”; Christine Lagarde, although dramatically holding up her hand bag to raise money for the Fund, also accepted that more needs to be done. Developing country representatives had rather more direct recommendations, pointing out that they had to impose difficult policies when they had a crisis and the eurozone should be no different.

3. The crisis is not over, despite a more positive mood in Davos and in financial markets. Donald Tsang, the chief executive of Hong Kong, put it best. He told the audience that Hong Kong had a balanced budget, reserves equivalent to two years of public expenditure, full employment and very rapid growth. “It all looks very nice,” he said, adding, “I have never been as scared as now”. His point was that in an inter-connected world, he could not be sure that a blow-up in Europe would not be so serious that it could put even a seemingly-resilient economy such as Hong Kong into a very deep hole.

The optimistic mood in Davos can be seductive, but the nastier reality of the still-troubled global economy has made its presence felt.


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001042860/en

不要质疑人民的智商

一个博学的蠢蛋比一个无知者蠢两倍。――莫里哀

本来不想发此文的,虽然有些感慨,但总觉得投资最要紧的心态就是保持淡定。最近在看安德烈・科斯托拉尼的《大投机家的证券心理学》,里面讲到一个小故事:"我的老朋友尤金・温瑞布(Eugene Weinreb),他是个经验老到又十分狡猾的股市老狐狸,他从10岁那年便开始了他的投机生涯。有一天,他的秘书非常激动的在他面前说:'证券行情大暴跌!'而他的反应却是:'证券行情大暴跌?我该激动吗?我可是在奥斯维辛集中营待了3年……'"

不打哑谜了。要讲的就是茅台和腐败的事,最近实在有点沸沸扬扬,在冷冷清清的股市和中国的"价值投资"界掀起不小的波澜,许多知名的"价值投资者"牵涉其中,为茅台喊冤。媒体纷纷报道,网民分裂两派,针锋相对。本不想说,但最终忍不住也跟着来说两句,考虑到咱并非什么名人名嘴,不会有什么大影响,另外也希望借此让自己获得更多一些思考,与喜欢逛本博的同学们也议议投资的一些小技巧。这些日子正在写一篇关于投资和投机的心得,这里就提前把一些观点发在这里了。

无论投资还是投机,要想获得比较大的成功,对宏观环境、新闻事件的关注是必不可缺的,但正如科斯托拉尼说的,事件本身并非关键,关键在于正确把握人们对于事件的反应。茅台到底是否等于腐败?反腐是不是就要打倒茅台?打倒了茅台是不是就清廉了?这些问题居然会成为投资者讨论的话题,在我看来是很让人惊讶的。媒体已经非常直白的反应了大众的心态:1月10日人民日报发表长篇文章,痛斥如今中国官场盛行的"酒文化"散发着浓浓的腐败之味、乖戾之气、愚昧之态、谄谀之风;1月11日南方日报引用深圳市委书记说官员腐败推升茅台价格;茅台死都不肯承认自己的奢侈品名声。这些媒体应该不是什么街边小报吧?

茅台跟腐败之间到底有没有关系,我是不相信有人会无知到不清楚。真不清楚也没关系,聪明的投资者应当牢记科斯托拉尼的话,别把眼睛老盯在事件本身,更应该去了解大众的心态,以及他们可能采取的下一步行动。现在大众已经认定了1+1=3,许多投资者,包括一些相当知名的,却仍在学杨过挑战世俗观点,非要此时跳出来指出其中的错误。当然,其中是不是有更深层次的考虑这里不谈。我的观点是:不要质疑和挑战人民大众的智商,即便真理在你这里,但要记住市场在大众那里,市场先生的脾性就是大众的心理真实反映,而不是物理、化学定理的反映。聪明的投资者应当顺着人民大众的心理去赚钱,而非尝试改变他们的想法。

这次热闹事件最终结果只能交给时间来给出答案了。我的经验表明,但凡一切成为当今媒体热门话题的东西,中短期都没好下场。当年挑战世俗权威的杨过,付出一条膀子代价后变得成熟多了。芒格曾说40岁之前没有价值投资者。看到一些人对茅台这个事近乎歇斯底里的反应,我更有感触了,也许在国内这个年龄应该改成60岁更合适。这次事件对大家带来的另一个好处是可以更清楚、近距离的看清楚各类投资者的心态和所言所行,相信会让大家更加认识到独立思考的重要性。

投资最容易犯的一个错误是从后视镜看问题。没错,从03年算起,茅台股价涨了40倍,毫无疑问的大牛股。那么接下来呢?在未来3-5年再涨10倍、8倍?如果理性的去看看帝亚吉欧和LVMH的市值,再看看现在的茅台市值,还有多少理性投资空间?PE、PB、PS、DCF对于这样的股票,已经是一朵朵浮云而已,剩下的,大概也就市梦率或者醉酒率了。目前整体市场低估的情况下,我现在确实敢拍着胸脯说未来3-5年涨10倍、8倍的股票不会少,但也很肯定茅台既不是我的酒,也不是我的菜。

附上我找的一些世界奢侈品公司市值,供有兴趣的同学研究研究,反正我是一点兴趣都没有。因为我知道日本很多中小企业主正在拼命卖掉手中的奔驰车,而LV正在忙着关闭日本的店铺。

全球最大的烈酒公司英国帝亚吉欧(Diageo PLC)

市值 (百万) £34,755.52 1英镑=9.6872人民币元

市盈率 18.28

总市值/销售收入 3.50

市帐率 (市价/帐面资产净值) 6.64

毛利 59.64

营运利润率 26.12

净利率 20.30

全球第三大市值烈酒公司,美国最大的百富门(Brown Forman Corp)

市值 (百万) $11,111.99 1美元=6.3238人民币元

市盈率 19.73

总市值/销售收入 3.08

市帐率 (市价/帐面资产净值) 5.58

毛利 50.14

营运利润率 24.38

净利率 16.14

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA

市值 (百万) 欧元57,814.92 1欧元=8.0391人民币元

市盈率 16.64

总市值/销售收入 2.69

市帐率 (市价/帐面资产净值) 2.79

毛利 65.43

营运利润率 21.35

净利率 16.89

贵州茅台

市值 (百万) ¥195,894.20

市盈率 26.31

总市值/销售收入 12.28

市帐率 (市价/帐面资产净值) 8.59

毛利 78.14

营运利润率 66.13

净利率 49.28


http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_53c917790100wwrx.html

2012年1月21日

世界上哪些国家过农历新年

     农历 (阴历) 是我国和东方国家自古以来使用的历法,也是东亚文化圈共同使用的历法。简单一点说,凡是用筷子的国家基本上都用农历,包括中国和曾经认中国为宗主国的一些国家,如韩国、日本、越南、蒙古、柬埔寨、老挝等。这些国家,尽管大多已改了阳历,但一到农历年正月初一,就放了假,大家高高兴兴地过个年。 

第一个脱离这个好传统的是日本,这是一个见异思迁,见强者就认亲爹的国家。1882年明治维新后,废除了农历 (他们叫天保历),改为阳历,同时也废除农历新年,从此倒霉的日本人就在阳历元旦过年了,日本国运也时好时坏。二次大战被炸成一片废墟,只能无条件投降。战后好容易经济恢复了一下,上个世纪80年代末又来了个经济大崩溃,到21世纪才开始复苏。但股票到现在还没恢复到以前水平,钱存在银行内也拿不到一分钱利息,国债达到国内生产总值 (GDP)的180%以上,是全球工业化国家中政府负债最严重的一个国家,最近连日航都宣告破产了。真叫是每况愈下,“小日本过年,一年不如一年”。谁教它当上这个好传统的第一个叛徒。

中国尽管在民国三年改了阳历,但农历新年仍用春节的名义保留了下来,人们也仍在这一天过年。

大陆先是在正月初一到初三放假3天;以后春节三天假期加上和相邻两个周末,从除夕下午一直放假到初七或者初八。由2008年开始,春节假期调整为除夕到年初二。香港和澳门春节假期是年初一到初三,共三天。台湾是目前全世界最重视春节的地区,共放假4天, 从除夕到年初三。

除了中国外,同属筷子文化圈的越南和韩国等国也仍在春节过年,而且一点不含糊,也都放假3天,即正月初一到初三。

除中国本土外,新加坡是华人最多的国家 (约占70%), 也在春节过年,放假2天,即年初一到初二。邻近新加坡的马来西亚,华人没新加坡多,但大部分州也都在春节放假2天,只有少数州放假1天。

散布在世界各国的华人,尽管所在国一般在春节不放假,但也都或多或少地保持了过年的传统,在大年夜家人团聚,美美地吃上一顿年夜饭;或是在年初一带上点中国食品,与单位里的老外们分享。从大陆出来的华人有机会也会看看春节联欢晚会,再看一眼自己青少年时代熟悉的明星,了解一下中国的新面目,回忆回忆故乡、亲人和自己在国内时的生涯。这些回忆有时甜蜜、有时辛酸,但在异乡都显得十分亲切。


http://gongmin1952.blog.163.com/blog/static/3450399920102269395754/

2012年1月20日

平安收购深发展尘埃落定 深发展银行更名平安银行

http://www.sina.com.cn  2012年01月19日 20:10  新浪财经微博

  新浪财经讯 1月19日晚间消息,深发展和中国平安(39.10,0.59,1.53%)(微博)今晚同时公告,两行整合尘埃落定:深发展董事会审议通过深发展吸收合并平安银行方案并同意两行签署吸收合并协议。

  吸收合并后,平安银行将注销法人资格,深圳发展银行有限公司将更名为平安银行股份有限公司(微博)。公司股票1月20日复牌。

  更名符合银行长远发展

  深发展董事会决议,同意深发展与平安银行签署《深圳发展银行股份有限公司与平安银行股份有限公司之吸收合并协议》,同意在平安银行本次吸收合并注销后,公司的中文名称由“深圳发展银行股份有限公司”变更为“平安银行股份有限公司”,英文名称由“Shenzhen Development Bank Co., Ltd。”变更为“PingAn Bank Co., Ltd。”。

  深发展表示,银行名称的确定过程中,公司主要从两方面进行衡量和评估:是否符合客户和各相关方的最佳利益,以及是否符合银行未来长远发展战略,相较深发展,“平安银行”表现出更强的优势。

  同时,深发展认为,“平安银行”也更加有利于借助和发挥控股母公司——中国平安(38.51,1.06,2.83%)(微博)集团在品牌、客户、渠道、产品、服务等多个方面的优势,对业务发展和市场开拓,尤其在交叉销售,提供综合金融产品和服务方面更具优势。

  公告称,深发展作为合并完成后的存续公司将依法承继平安银行的所有资产、负债、证照、许可、业务、人员及其他一切权利与义务。在本次吸收合并完成后,新银行资产规模将进一步扩大,将拥有27个分行,395个营业网点,覆盖到中国平安约80%的客户群。将来,还将依托中国平安资源优势,包括超6,000万个人客户和200万公司客户,提升交叉销售广度与深度。

  两行股价整合细则落定

  公告同时介绍,在吸收合并过程中,平安银行小股东可选择获得现金或股票的方式获得对价。

  根据方案,深发展因本次吸收合并就每一平安银行股份应支付给少数股东(有效选择股票合并对价的少数股东和平安银行异议股东除外)的对价为人民币3.37元。少数股东有权在股票合并对价申报期内选择股票合并对价,即要求按照每股最终定价与深发展每股价格(本次董事会决议公告日为定价基准日计算的深发展于定价基准日前20个交易日的股票交易均价,即人民币15.45元/股)的比值将其持有的平安银行股份交换为自二级市场购入的深发展股票(小数点后的尾数均折算为1股)。

  同时,为保护深发展股东的利益,深发展将自行或指定第三方向符合条件的深发展异议股东提供收购请求权。拟行使收购请求权的深发展异议股东,可就其有效申报的每一股深发展股份,在收购请求权实施日,获得由深发展或深发展指定的第三方支付的按照深发展每股价格确定并公告的现金对价,具体价格为人民币15.45元/股。

  公告称,以上议案尚待两行股东大会及相关监管机关的审批,更名事项尚需银行业监管机构和工商行政管理机构等核准,并最终以前述主管机构核准的名称为准。(曹磊 发自深圳)


http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/20120119/201011243378.shtml

2012年1月19日

荷兰性教育的启示 Why American teens should go Dutch

 

我在荷兰长大。当我12岁的时候,一位女士来到学校给我们上性教育课。她头发花白、面容严肃、不苟言笑。我还认得这种样子:我祖母当年就曾在我妈妈的学校教性教育课。

我们这些教室里的男孩女孩都有些尴尬。但我现在还记得当时很好奇:这位女士能教我们什么呢?我们在小学已经学过了所有关于性方面的知识。那位女士的开场白是:“我不会教你们性知识,因为你们已经知道了所有这些知识。相反,我们将谈论性关系问题。”

当时住在我家马路对面的,是一位名叫艾米•斯嘉丽(Amy Schalet)的美国女孩。她后来回到了美国,发现了一个全然不同的世界。斯嘉丽吃惊地发现,许多美国少女怀了孕。有些少女几乎没有接受过任何性教育。她们的父母往往试图禁止她们发生性行为,正如美国议员试图禁止吸食大麻和卖淫一样。

如今,斯嘉丽是马萨诸塞大学(University of Massachusetts)阿姆赫斯特分校的一位社会学者。她刚刚发表了《不要在我家里:父母、青少年和性文化》(Not Under My Roof: Parents, Teens and the Culture of Sex)一书。该书由芝加哥大学出版社(University of Chicago Press)出版。在书中,她从青少年的卧室说起,最后解释了美国之所以对社会问题相当保守、而荷兰相当开明的原因所在。

该书以斯嘉丽向“荷兰和美国无宗教信仰或温和基督教派的中产阶级白人父母”提出的问题开头。他们会允许自己的青少年子女(一般在16岁左右)带女朋友(或男朋友)回家过夜吗?90%的受访美国人与下面这位母亲回答的一样:“上帝啊,这是不可能的。”而90%的受访荷兰人则表示,他们将允许、或至少会考虑一下。

你或许以为上述调查结果支持了外国人认为荷兰人过于放纵的说法。然而这种说法并不准确。荷兰父母并非完全撒手不管。他们通过允许子女带异性朋友回家过夜,严格控制了他们的性生活。正如一位荷兰男孩告诉斯嘉丽说的那样:“如果我带女友回家过夜,至少我的父母知道我在哪里。”父母可以事先为女儿准备避孕药。他们几乎是在父母的眼皮子底下发生性行为的。父母可能早已认识女儿的男朋友,他们或许会在第二天早上邀请他共进早餐。如果他们不喜欢这位男孩,他们可以巧妙地把他撵走。如果他们喜欢他,就会把他视为准女婿,有可能让他参加必要的荷兰家庭聚会,比如姑姥姥生日聚会之类。青少年性行为通常会演变为平淡的小夫妻生活。当我们年轻的时候,一位荷兰朋友告诉我,他不可能抛弃自己的女友,因为那样他父母会不高兴。

简言之,荷兰青少年性行为是在父母的控制之下。它处于一种有序的状态。难怪荷兰女孩怀孕的几率,几乎才约为美国女孩的五分之一,而流产的可能性仅为美国女孩的一半,尽管她们可能会在不征得父母同意的情况下流产。

荷兰父母对待青少年性行为的态度,很大程度上与荷兰社会对待毒品或卖淫的态度一样:允许它、远离它、控制它。荷兰人知道,有些人会吸毒。他们只是确保这些行为有序进行。正如约翰•特拉沃尔塔(John Travolta)在影片《低俗小说》(Pulp Fiction)中解释阿姆斯特丹为何会有大麻馆一样:“我想说,你不可能走进一家饭馆,卷上烟,然后开始吞云吐雾。他们想让你在自己家或某些指定场所吸食大麻。”荷兰的大麻馆与妓院一样,都要缴税。

相反,美国人禁止这些行为,从而使其陷入无序状态。美国父母禁止子女带异性朋友回家过夜,因此青少年性行为通常是在汽车后座等地方进行,不采取任何避孕措施。孩子们不得不“偷偷摸摸”地实施被斯嘉丽称为“美国青少年重要仪式”的行为。实际上,“偷偷摸摸”会让孩子们更兴奋。20年前,当我带着自己的英格兰大学足球队前往阿姆斯特丹踢巡回赛的时候,我的队友们坚持要每天在大麻烟馆过夜。某天晚上,我们的美国门将醉醺醺地说,他很高兴在成长过程中能够尝试所有被禁止的行为。他表示:“我们偷偷地用假身份证去买啤酒喝,这非常好玩。”

美国社会试图通过婚姻、教堂和监狱制度来推动好的行为。但这种做法的效果并不明显。如果你只是简单地禁止,你就会创造出不受监管的无序区域。美国陷入了恶性循环。因为美国人创造了如此多的无序区域——生活其中的有单身妈妈、贩毒团伙以及其他穷人——所以美国非常担心这些无序区域。因此美国人继续禁止,这只会促使更多人进入无序区域。当然,这些区域令青少年们着迷。可能正因如此,美国青少年的吸毒人数多于荷兰。正如我记忆中的那样,荷兰青少年可能很看不起大麻馆。荷兰政客们现在关闭许多大麻馆的一个原因是“药物旅游”:外国人错误地认为,这些大麻馆是反文化的天堂,因此趋之若鹜。

荷兰人已经做了人类所能做的一切事情,让青少年性行为和吸毒显得平淡无奇。美国社会保守人士应该加以尝试。

译者/何黎


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001042795


 

When I was 12 years old, growing up in the Netherlands, a woman came to school to give us sex education. She was grey-haired, tough and unsmiling. I recognised the type: my grandmother had taught sex ed at my mother’s school.

We boys and girls sat in the classroom embarrassed. But I also remember wondering: what could this woman teach us? We’d already been taught all about sex at primary school. “I won’t teach you about sex,” she began, “because you know all that. Instead, we’ll talk about relationships.”

Living across the road from me back then was an American teenager called Amy Schalet. Later she returned to the US, and discovered a different world. Many American teens, she noticed with surprise, got pregnant. Some had received scarcely any sex education. Their parents often tried to ban teenage sex, just as American lawmakers try to ban marijuana and prostitution.

Schalet is now a sociologist at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, and she has just published Not Under My Roof: Parents, Teens and the Culture of Sex (University of Chicago Press). Her book starts in the adolescent bedroom, and ends up explaining why the US is so conservative on social issues and the Netherlands so liberal.

The book opens with a question that Schalet put to “white, secular or moderately Christian” middle-class Dutch and American parents. Would they allow their teenagers – typically aged about 16 – to spend the night with a girlfriend or boyfriend in the parental home? Nine out of 10 American parents responded, in the phrase of one mother: “No way, José.” Nine out of 10 Dutch parents said they’d allow or at least consider it.

You might think this finding supports foreign clichés of Dutch permissiveness. Yet that isn’t quite right. Dutch parents aren’t hands-off at all. By allowing the sleepover, they gain great control over their children’s sex lives. As one Dutch boy told Schalet: “If it happens at home, at least they [his parents] know where I am.” The parents can put their daughter on the pill beforehand. The sex happens practically under their noses. The partner – whom they probably already know – might be summoned for family breakfast the morning after. If they don’t like him, they can subtly start ousting him. If they do, he is adopted as a kind of son-in-law, expected to show up for obligatory Dutch family gatherings like great-aunts’ birthdays. Often the teen sex evolves into a bland mini-marriage. When we were young, a Dutch friend told me he couldn’t dump his girlfriend because his parents would be upset.

In short, Dutch teenage sex happens under parental control. It’s a zone of order. No wonder Dutch teenage girls are nearly five times less likely than American girls to get pregnant, and less than half as likely to have an abortion, even though they can get abortions without parental consent.

Dutch parents treat teen sex much as Dutch society treats drugs or prostitution: permit it, hug it close, control it. The Dutch know that some people will take drugs. They just make sure this happens in a zone of order. As John Travolta explains Amsterdam’s marijuana cafés in the film Pulp Fiction: “I mean, you just can’t walk into a restaurant, roll a joint and start puffin’ away. They want you to smoke in your home or certain designated places.” And Dutch marijuana cafés – like prostitutes – pay taxes.

By contrast, Americans banish these activities to zones of disorder. American parents forbid sleepovers, and so teen sex typically happens without contraception, in places like the backseats of cars. Kids have to “sneak around”, something that Schalet calls “an important ritual of American adolescence”. In fact, sneaking around enhances the thrill. When I took my English college football team on tour to Amsterdam 20 years ago, my teammates insisted on spending every night in marijuana cafés. One night, our American goalkeeper dreamily reflected that he was glad he’d grown up with everything banned. “We had the fun of sneaking around buying beer with fake IDs,” he said.

American society tries to enforce good behaviour through the institutions of marriage, church and prison. This doesn’t work well. If you just ban, you create unsupervised zones of disorder. The US is trapped in a vicious cycle. Because Americans create so many zones of disorder – inhabited by single mothers, drug gangs and other poor people – American anxiety over disorder stays high. And so Americans keep prohibiting, which only pushes more people into zones of disorder. Of course these zones fascinate teenagers. That may be why American teens take more drugs than Dutch teens, who, as I recall, can be quite snooty about marijuana cafés. One reason Dutch politicians are now closing many drugs cafés is “drugstoerisme”: foreigners wrongly think the cafés are countercultural havens and come flocking.

The Netherlands has done everything humanly possible to make teen sex and drugs seem dull. American social conservatives should try it out.


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001042795/en

“欧洲股神”依旧看好中国 Fidelity's Bolton Reiterates Bullish Stance on China

达国际投资(Fidelity Worldwide Investment)基金经理波顿(Anthony Bolton)在香港的业绩虽然不佳,但他依然看好中国。

Kevin Lee/Bloomberg
2010年,这位自负的基金经理高调搬到香港,掌管富达旗下中国特殊情况基金(China Special Situations Fund)。但至少可以说,他一直未能再现在英国近30年的辉煌业绩。2011年,他管理的这只中国基金跌了逾三分之一,不过2012年以来已经回升了2.7%。

波顿周三说,目前为止我一直错了。他说,他曾预测2011年亚洲市场将更多地与发达市场脱钩,但显然,去年亚洲市场实际上却是全线下跌。

波顿说,该基金业绩不佳的原因之一是,在中国中小型股上的敞口过高。他在这些公司中看到了机会,因为相对来说分析师对这些公司关注不足,但他承认在市场低迷时期这类股票常常遭抛售。此外,该基金的杠杆率为20%,这也加重了波顿的损失。

他承认,在我关注的一些公司中,挑战比我预期的要大。

这位资深股市人士说,去年香港市场的走势,特别是去年9月的走势算得上是我投资生涯中见过的最糟糕、最动荡的。

去年,中资企业的一系列会计丑闻也打击了投资者对中国公司股票的喜好。不过,波顿说,这也有助于淘汰掉质量差的公司,提高存续下来的中资企业的平均质量,而中资企业的上市规则(特别是在美上市的规则)也将因此收紧。

在如此黯淡的表现后,波顿说,他仍坚持看好中国。

尽管他预测亚洲市场将与发达市场脱钩没有说对,他却并没有放弃这一希望。他认为,欧元区的问题不断恶化将意味着更多的西方投资者会将钱投到新兴市场。

他说,就市场估值和情绪而言,去年中国股市大溃败是最极端的情况之一。随着中国中产阶级的壮大,他依然看好消费类股及服务类股。就自己在中小型股上的敞口和杠杆率而言,波顿说,他不会做出任何改变。

他说,当其他所有人都非常谨慎时,当估值很低时,我认为你必须保持乐观,必须看好;我对未来态度乐观。

一年后我们再来看。

Isabella Steger

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


Fidelity Worldwide Investment's fund manager Anthony Bolton has had a rough run in Hong Kong, but he's still bullish on China.

The vaunted fund manager made a high-profile move to Hong Kong to run Fidelity's China Special Situations Fund in 2010. But he hasn't been able to reproduce the almost three-decade track record he brought from the U.K., to say the least. The China fund lost more than a third in value in 2011, though it's up 2.7% so far in 2012.

'I've been wrong to date,' said Mr. Bolton on Wednesday. He said he expected Asian markets to decouple more from developed ones in 2011, but of course last year turned out to be a year of total carnage for markets in the region.

Mr. Bolton said part of the reason for the poor performance of the fund was its high exposure to Chinese small- and mid-cap stocks. He saw opportunities in those companies as they are relatively under-covered by analysts, but admits in market downturns they are prone to selloffs. The fund was also 20% leveraged, exacerbating Mr. Bolton's pain.

'The challenges have been greater than I expected in some of the companies that I've seen,' he admitted.

The stock market veteran said the movements seen in the Hong Kong market last year, particularly in September, were as 'bad and as volatile as…anything I've ever seen in my career in investing.'

The spate of accounting scandals among Chinese companies also took a toll on investor appetite for Chinese stocks last year. But Mr. Bolton said that has helped 'weed out' the poor quality companies, raising the average quality of Chinese companies still standing, while listing rules for Chinese companies, particularly in the U.S., will be tightened as a result.

After such a dismal performance, Mr. Bolton says he still remains an 'unremitting bull.'

Though his decoupling call was poorly timed, Mr. Bolton hasn't abandoned that hope. He thinks the worsening problems in the euro zone will mean more investors in the West putting their money into emerging markets.

He said the rout in Chinese stocks last year was 'one of the most extreme situations in terms of valuation and sentiment in the market.' He continues to prefer consumption and services stocks as China's middle class grows. In terms of his exposure to small and mid-caps and his leverage ratio, he says he will 'change nothing.'

'When everyone else is very cautious, when valuations are low, in my view you have to be positive and you have to be bullish,' he says. 'I'm optimistic about the future.'

We'll be checking in again in a year's time.

Isabella Steger

2012年1月11日

瑞士钟表业一枝独秀 Swiss watchmakers set to clock up best year ever

 

由于瑞士法郎汇率大幅走高,瑞士出口企业处境艰难、愁云笼罩,但有一个行业却一枝独秀、光彩夺目。

瑞士机床和电子设备在海外的销售额大幅下降,纸产品销售额暴跌,而钟表出口额却大幅增长。

去年11月份,劳力士(Rolex)、欧米茄(Omega)和百达翡丽(Patek Philippe)——只是瑞士众多知名品牌中的三个——的海外销售额同比增长16%,至20.6亿瑞士法郎(合21.7亿美元)。去年头11个月的海外销售额则增长19%,至174亿瑞士法郎。

继2010年反弹逾22%(钟表出口在受到信贷紧缩冲击后已恢复元气)之后,2011年的销售数字有望打破2008年创下的历史最高纪录。

“今年料将成为创纪录的一年,我们对2012年也充满信心,”瑞士钟表工业联合会(FH)主席让•丹尼尔•帕什(Jean-Daniel Pasche)表示。

出口数据只能说明一部分情况。大多数钟表制造公司属于私人所有,它们像私人银行业机构一样对自身的信息守口如瓶。

即使是斯沃琪集团(Swatch Group)和历峰(Richemont)在谈到旗下各品牌(比如前者的宝玑(Breguet)和后者的积家(Jaeger-LeCoultre))的情况时也惜字如金。斯沃琪和历峰是钟表业的两个巨头,作为上市公司,它们必须有更高的透明度。

只有瑞士海关提供汇总的统计数字。

钟表制造公司的表现之所以与众不同,有三点原因。第一同时也是最明显的是,瑞士几乎占据着垄断地位,特别是在顶级机械表市场上。

在低端市场上,中国、印度和俄罗斯每年生产数百万块手表,但这些手表没有多少能销售到本土市场以外。中高端市场则是瑞士品牌的天下,中端品牌如斯沃琪的天梭(Tissot),高端品牌如独立品牌爱彼(Audemars Piguet)。就连两个最知名的非瑞士名表品牌——德国的朗格(Lange)和格拉苏蒂(Glashütte Original)——其所有者也是瑞士人。

掌握需求的变化,是瑞士钟表制造公司的第二个制胜法宝。大多数品牌都抓住了蓬勃增长的亚洲需求——主要是来自中国的需求,瑞士表在中国是男士的身份象征。

斯沃琪是最早行动的瑞士钟表制造公司之一,该公司现在也正获益于此。斯沃琪在上海外滩开设了一间令人目眩神迷的品牌陈列室。

调整零售策略是第三个成功因素。传统上,钟表的销售要经过独立分销商,这些分销商随后把表转手给各个零售商。

目前中小品牌仍然依赖于分销商,但各大钟表制造公司都已逐渐掌控了自己品牌的分销,增强了灵活性,提高了利润。

译者/何黎


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001042660


 

Amid the gloom surrounding Switzerland’s hard-pressed exporters, smarting from the soaring franc, one sector stands out as a glaring exception.

While foreign sales of machine tools and electrical equipment have fallen sharply and paper products plunged, watch exports have soared.

Sales of Rolexes, Omegas and Parek Philippes – just three of Switzerland’s best-known brands – climbed

16 per cent in November year on year to SFr2.06bn ($2.17bn). For the first

11 months of last year, sales were up by 19 per cent at SFr17.4bn.

The figures follow a more than 22 per cent rebound in 2010, when exports recovered from the credit crunch, with 2011 set to exceed

the previous 2008 peak.

“This year is expected to be a record and we are also confident about 2012,” says Jean-Daniel Pasche, president of the Swiss watch industry federation.

Export data tell only a partial story. Most watchmakers are privately owned and guard their information as fiercely as their counterparts in private banking.

Even Swatch Group and Richemont, the two biggest, which have to be more transparent as quoted companies, are sparing when it comes to individual brands, such as the former’s Breguet or the latter’s Jaeger-LeCoultre.

Swiss customs statistics provide the only aggregate data available.

The watchmakers’ story is different for three reasons. First, and most obvious, Switzerland has a virtual monopoly, especially for top-priced mechanical watches.

At lower prices, China, India and Russia produce millions of pieces a year. But few are sold outside the home market. Further up the price band, Swiss brands dominate, whether for “mid-priced” watches, such as Swatch Group’s Tissot, or top names, such as independent Audemars Piguet. Even the two best known non-Swiss prestige brands – Germany’s Lange and Glashütte Original – are Swiss-owned.

Recognition of changing demand has been the second Swiss trump. Most brands have latched on to booming Asian demand – predominantly from China, where Swiss watches are male status symbols.

Swatch Group, which has a glitzy multibrand showroom on Shanghai’s Bund, was one of the early movers, and is now reaping the benefits.

Adjusting retailing has been the third factor. Traditionally, watches are sold via independent distributors, which then forward them to individual retailers.

While distributors remain important for smaller brands, the biggest watchmakers have progressively taken over their own distribution, increasing flexibility and boosting profits.


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001042660/en

2012年1月10日

科技企业掀起智能电视创新大战 Fighting For Control Of New 'Smart' TVs

今的电视产业可谓今非昔比。

随着越来越多的新的互联网内容和移动设备占领人们的起居室,看电视成了一个复杂的动作。本周的消费电子产品展(Consumer Electronics Show)上最热门的话题之一就是如何让这个娱乐大块头重现生机。增加频道和屏幕上的指南这些老办法似乎不再管用。

全球发货量最大的电视制造企业三星电子集团(Samsung Electronics Co.)正在利用此次展会展示一台不需遥控器即可通过声音和手势控制的电视。LG电子(LG Electronics Inc.)推出了一款由声音和手势启动的遥控装置。语音识别专家Novauris公司正在与松下(Panasonic Corp.)合作,为电视和其他设备引入语音识别技术。

同时,苹果公司(Apple Inc.)的声控技术Siri已经应用于最新的iPhone,预计将在某个适当的时间应用在其生产的电视上。消息人士说,这家硅谷的公司最近同媒体的管理人员讨论了能够通过声音和手势控制电视屏幕的新技术。在消费电子产品展上没有正式露面的苹果公司没有对该计划进行证实。

除了内容繁多,一些行业巨头的做法也使找到心仪的电视节目的过程变得十分复杂,比如包括有线电视和卫星电视公司,还有苹果和亚马逊公司(Amazon.com Inc.)在内的公司正在制作大批的视频节目,而且对于方便其他公司从中搜索资源并没有什么兴趣。

Getty Images
1月9日,在拉斯维加斯消费电子产品展上三星公司展出了一台ES8000电视。
旨在让搜索大量视频资源的过程变得更容易的MediaNavi公司首席执行长巴特(John atter)说,对内容的阻碍并非关乎技术,而是知识产权方面的问题。

有线电视和卫星电视服务已经控制消费者看电视的体验长达几十年,它们现在正在努力升级其界面,解决关乎搜索查找的问题,从而击败竞争者。到目前为止,大多数的有线电视和卫星电视都专注于通过平板设备使内容导航更为便捷。

不是所有人都意识到这个问题。根据国际市场调研公司Parks Associates的数据,约2,500万美国家庭现在拥有行业中称之为智能电视的产品,该电视有内置的网络连接装置。但该公司估计,其中仅有55%的用户将智能电视接入了互联网。

从电视上看互联网内容的想法最早出现在上世纪90年代中期,此后却不为市场所接受,直到人们的收视习惯开始发生变化这种局面才改变。消费者已经有了观看谷歌(Google Inc.)YouTube网站上电脑用户自制网络视频的习惯。还有一些消费者则习惯了从苹果公司(Apple)iTunes 网店等网站下载节目和从Netflix公司的网站观看流媒体播放。

虽然智能电视机和机顶盒已经能够帮助用户将这些内容从电脑转移到电视中,但大多数用户目前使用的服务是获得一批已经选出的格式化内容,而不是一个可以去浏览任何网站的浏览器。这些内容有时被设计成应用程序(app)的式样。

法国公司Technicolor的子公司MediaNavi已在帮助客户利用iPad等平板电脑来搜寻存放在互联网上的各种内容。这家公司今年春天计划发布一款被称作M-GO的应用程序,巴特说,这款程序能够追踪家中多名用户的收视习惯,并向他们提供个性化的收视建议。

虽然这款程序是免费的,但巴特说,MediaNavi计划通过对外租赁或出售自己收藏库中的电影来赚钱。

尽管相当一部分通过互联网供应的视频内容目前是在用户表达需求后提供的,但针对直播内容的某些限制正在放松。硅谷公司RGB Networks的首席执行长格雷厄姆(Jef Graham)说,这将为针对那些正在观看电视直播的用户向其iPad或笔记本电脑中发送补充性内容创造机会。这家公司向有线电视和电信公司提供视频处理服务。

要做到这一点,知道用户正在观看什么电视节目是有帮助的。雅虎公司(Yahoo Inc.)去年收购了初创企业IntoNow,这家公司通过分析电视节目的声音来识别用户都在看什么节目。该公司说,这一技术有助于为收看电视直播的用户提供互动式体验;雅虎公司负责互联网电视业务的副总裁雅各比(Ron Jacoby)举例说,正在观看摔跤比赛直播的人可能会被要求参加有关谁最有可能赢得比赛的现场民调。

Gracenote是一家被索尼公司(Sony Corp.)收购的初创企业,该公司以其拥有一个有关音乐和视频信息的庞大数据库而闻名。Gracenote说它正在进一步开拓自己的业务。该公司将把通过电脑对声音片段进行的分析与它通过人力协助汇编的电影和电视节目中物体和人物的有关信息结合起来。

Gracenote在本届拉斯维加斯消费电子展上宣布的这项技术被称作Entourage,该公司总裁怀特(Stephen White)举例说,这一技术能够识别出用户正在观看有一款特定跑车的视频画面,并能迅速向用户提供有关这款车及如何购买它的信息。

三星等许多电视机生产商正在给电视机添加新的功能,希望这能抵消电视机价格稳步下跌给公司业绩造成的不利影响。三星计划今年第一季度给其智能电视机增加语音识别能力。该公司电视机业务的总裁尹富根(Boo-Keun Yoon)不愿透露具语音识别能力电视机的价格,但他估计,电视机的成本将因这项能力增加300至500美元,具体增加多少取决于其型号。

Don Clark / Jessica E. Vascellaro

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


The boob tube has come a long way.

TV watching is more complex these days as a flood of new Internet content and mobile devices reaches the living room. One of the hottest topics at this week's Consumer Electronics Show is how to make sense of the entertainment chaos. The old methods -- channel surfing and on-screen guides -- no longer seem to cut it.

Samsung Electronics Co., the world's biggest TV maker by shipments, is using the conference to show off a television set that responds to voice commands and gestures without the need for a remote control. LG Electronics Inc. revealed a voice-and gesture-activated remote control, and speech-recognition specialist Novauris Technologies Ltd is working with Panasonic Corp. to bring voice-recognition technology to TVs and other devices.

Meanwhile, Apple Inc. -- whose voice-activated technology, called Siri, helps command its latest iPhone -- is expected to apply the approach to TVs at some point. The Silicon Valley company has recently talked to media executives about new technology that could control television screens via voice and movement, according to people familiar with the matter. The company, which doesn't have an official presence at CES, hasn't confirmed such plans.

Besides the sheer quantity of content, finding programs is complicated by the fact that some powerful players -- such as cable and satellite companies, as well as Apple and Amazon.com Inc. -- are building vast repositories of video programming and aren't necessarily eager to let other companies search through it.

'The hurdles on content are less about technology than rights issues,' says John Batter, chief executive of MediaNavi, one of the companies trying to make it easier to search through a large array of video sources.

Cable and satellite services, which have controlled how consumers watch television for decades, are working hard to update their own interfaces and solve the discovery problem to fend off competitors. So far, most have focused on making their content easier to navigate via tablets.

Not that everyone is aware of the issues. About 25 million U.S. households now have what the industry calls Smart TVs, which have Internet connections built in, estimates market researcher Parks Associates. But only 55% of those users have actually connected the sets to the Internet, the firm estimates.

The very idea of viewing Web content on TVs, which emerged in the mid-1990s, ran into a backlash that persisted until viewing habits began changing. Consumers acquired a taste for online fare such as user-posted videos on Google Inc.'s YouTube service. Others have become accustomed to downloading programming from services like Apple's iTunes store and streaming shows from Netflix.

Smart TVs and set-top boxes have helped shift such content from PCs to TVs, but most consumers are using services that offer a selection of formatted content -- sometimes styled as apps -- rather than a browser to any website.

MediaNavi, a unit of France-based Technicolor, has seized on tablets like the iPad to help search through separate content repositories. The company this spring plans to release an app called M-GO, which Mr. Batter says can keep track of multiple users' viewing habits in the home and make personalized recommendations.

Though the app is free MediaNavi plans to make money by renting or selling movies from its own collection, Mr. Batter says.

While a large portion of video served up via the Internet now comes on an on-demand basis, some restrictions over live content are loosening. That opens opportunities to deliver complementary content to the iPads or laptops of users also watching live TV, notes Jef Graham, chief executive of RGB Networks, a Silicon Valley company that provides video-processing services to cable and telecom companies.

To do that, it helps to know what users are watching. Yahoo Inc. last year acquired IntoNow, a start-up that developed technology to identify programming by analyzing sounds on TV shows. That technology, the company says, can help serve up interactive experiences to users watching live events; people watching a wrestling match, for example, could be asked to participate in a poll about who is most likely to win, says Ron Jacoby, Yahoo's vice president of connected TV.

Gracenote, a start-up purchased by Sony Corp. that is known for a large database of information about music and videos, says it is going further. It combines computer-based analysis of sound clips with information it is compiling with human assistance about objects and people in movies and TV shows.

The technology it is announcing at CES, dubbed Entourage, could identify that a user is viewing a scene with a particular sports car, for example, and quickly serve up information about the car and how to buy it, says Stephen White, Gracenote's president.

Samsung is one of many TV makers adding new features to TVs in hopes of countering a steady drop in prices. It plans to add the voice-recognition capability in the first quarter to its Smart TVs. Boo-Keun Yoon, the president in charge of Samsung's TV business, wouldn't disclose pricing but estimated the new capability could add $300 to $500 to the cost of its TVs, depending on the model.

Don Clark / Jessica E. Vascellaro

保尔森“一掷千金”之后 Gold feels weight of Paulson curse

 

当约翰•保尔森(John Paulson)的对冲基金在2009年初购买了近100吨黄金时,保尔森,这位全世界最受尊敬的对冲基金经理之一,他的公开支持对黄金市场而言可谓是一大利好。

如今,保尔森的“一掷千金”似乎更像是一种诅咒。

Paulson & Co目前正处境艰难,这几乎已是人尽皆知的秘密。2011年,其主要基金Advantage Plus的价值缩水了一半左右。

由于该基金的黄金投资具有众所周知的特性,这就给黄金投资者带来了一个问题。这只基金的大部分投资是通过持有交易所交易基金SPDR Gold Trust,而各基金须就持有该ETF的情况递交季度性报告。

既然知道了Paulson & Co持有的黄金规模甚至超过了多家中央银行,并且该公司眼下正艰难度日,因此不难想象,人们开始担心保尔森也许要被迫抛售黄金了。这一幕的确出现过:去年第三季度,Paulson & Co出售了相当于约34吨黄金的ETF份额——当年9月,金价下跌11%。

保尔森因此成为了“仓促变现”交易的象征,这类交易通常令金价承压。毋庸置疑,对被迫变现的担忧——首当其冲要数Paulson & Co——是黄金市场12月份之所以充满不确定性的原因之一,许多投资者如今依然紧张不安。

Paulson & Co并不是唯一一家因自身财务问题而令市场承压的黄金持有者。希腊、西班牙、葡萄牙以及意大利央行共持有3200吨黄金,尽管多数市场观察人士和官员排除了上述央行会将黄金全部抛售的可能性,但毫无疑问,与Paulson & Co一样,这些央行也成为了人们心中的一大隐忧。

就在分析师要对接下来的一年作出预测时,上述问题会对黄金市场产生举足轻重的影响。

看看储金银行和交易机构发布的预测,任何人都会认为,眼下买入黄金正当其时:尽管金价近期下跌,但人们普遍的看法依然是一致看涨。

以伦敦金银市场协会(London Bullion Market Association)的一项年度调查为例,该协会对26名分析师和交易员进行的调查显示,除3人外,其余所有人都预计2012年黄金的平均现货价格将超过目前的每盎司1615美元左右。大多数受访者预测金价将在2000美元之上见顶。

然而,现在或许还没到双脚都跳回黄金市场的时候。虽然分析师表达出普遍的乐观情绪,但平均来看,他们预测金价将跌至每盎司1443美元的低位——比目前的价格低10.9%——而与我交谈过的大部分人都认为,这将发生在今年的前几个月。

在2月中旬之前,投资者无法得知Paulson & Co 2011年第四季度是否抛售了黄金。但这一点几乎无关紧要。在Paulson & Co和其它大型黄金持有者能够果断解决自身问题之前,笼罩在黄金市场上空的阴云也许不会消散。

译者/何黎


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001042638


 

When John Paulson’s hedge fund bought almost 100 tonnes of gold in early 2009, the public support from one of the world’s most respected hedge fund managers was a boon for the bullion market.

Now Mr Paulson’s enormous investment seems more like a curse.

It is little secret that Paulson & Co is struggling. Its main fund, Advantage Plus, lost about half its value over the course of 2011.

That creates a problem for gold investors, due to the very public nature of the fund’s gold investment – a large part of which is held through the SPDR Gold Trust exchange traded fund, holdings in which funds must report on a quarterly basis.

Knowing that Paulson & Co holds more gold than many central banks, and that it is struggling, it only takes a short leap of imagination to worry that he might be forced to sell it. Indeed, in the third quarter of last year, Paulson & Co sold ETF shares equivalent to roughly 34 tonnes of gold – and in September the gold price fell 11 per cent.

Mr Paulson has therefore become symbolic of the “dash for cash” trade that has weighed on gold. There is no doubt that fears of forced liquidation – with Paulson & Co at the top of the list – was a cause of uncertainty in December and many investors are still nervy.

Paulson & Co is not the only holder of gold whose financial problems are weighing on the market. The central banks of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy between them hold 3,200 tonnes of gold, and even though most market observers and officials dismiss the possibility of outright sales, there is no doubt that, as with Paulson & Co, they are a cause of concern.

Such woes matter to the gold market as analysts go through the annual rigmarole of forecasting the year ahead.

Anyone glancing at the forecasts being published by bullion banks and trading houses would think now is the time to buy gold: despite the recent price drop, the consensus remains unanimously bullish.

The London Bullion Market Association’s annual survey of 26 analysts and traders, for example, showed that all but three expected gold to average higher than the current spot price of about $1,615 a troy ounce over the course of 2012. The large majority expects a peak above $2,000.

Nonetheless, it may not yet be time to jump back into the gold market with both feet. Despite their general optimism, the analysts on average expect gold to fall as low as $1,443 an ounce – down 10.9 per cent from current prices – and most I have spoken to believe that will happen in the first few months of the year.

Investors will not know until mid-February whether Paulson & Co sold gold in the fourth quarter of 2011. But that is almost insignificant. The pall over the gold market may not lift until it and other large holders of bullion decisively put their woes behind them.


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001042638/en

2012年1月9日

巴菲特究竟上不上春晚?Warren Buffet Not Going to Sing for Spring Festival After All

待能在今年的中国春节听到美国知名投资者巴菲特(Warren Buffett)高歌一曲的人恐怕要失望了。

Bloomberg News
关于巴菲特将在今年网络春晚上演唱歌曲的传闻被证实是假的。图为2010年9月30日巴菲特在长沙出席中国汽车制造商比亚迪的一个新闻发布会。
据中国网络春晚主办方介绍,巴菲特已经为网络春晚录制了一段问候语,将在本月晚些时候的网络春晚网站播出。但中国阳光媒体集团(Sun Media Investment Holding Ltd.)联合创始人吴征说,巴菲特并没有在问候语中献唱。正是吴征为这位美国亿万富豪和中国网络春晚制作方牵线搭桥。

上述消息和中国网络春晚的监制王平久上周四在新闻发布会上的说法相左。新华社报道援引了王平久的说法,他说,巴菲特特别为网络春晚录制了一段视频,在视频中他弹奏吉它并演唱。据新华社报道,王平久说,我们都知道巴菲特很善于投资,不过很少人知道他歌唱的也不错。

王平久的声明被外媒纷纷转载,同时也在新浪微博引发了强烈反响。因为在日渐富裕、看重投资诀窍的中国,巴菲特是一位知名人物。

这则消息看来和巴菲特此前的行为相一致。这位亿万富豪一直因爱在公众场合放声高歌而出名,比如他曾在Geico Corp.于2010年制作的一个视频中客串,模仿80年代知名摇滚歌手Axl Rose。Geico Corp.是伯克希尔哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)旗下的保险公司。中国网民对巴菲特也不陌生:中国西服厂商大杨创世在其网站上发布的一段视频中,巴菲特曾盛赞这家企业。

但新华社的报道也引起巴菲特观察人士的一些疑问:首先,巴菲特是四弦琴爱好者,但好像不会弹吉他。王平久也拒绝提供巴菲特露面的具体细节,包括这段视频是否会出现在今年电视春晚的节目中。电视春晚是一台长达四至五个小时的综艺晚会,由中国中央电视台制作,在中国内地有7亿人收看,可能是全球收视率最高的电视节目。

王平久上周五说,他是通过阳光媒体集团的吴征接触到巴菲特的。吴征接受记者采访时说,他确实通过巴菲特的家庭成员获得了一段巴菲特祝福中国观众春节快乐的视频。吴征还说,他还向网络春晚的制作方提供了一段巴菲特的儿子皮特(Peter)演奏钢琴的视频

吴征原本计划再加入巴菲特一年前为阳光文化基金会(Sun Culture Foundation,吴征参与该基金会运作)录制的一段视频。那段视频于2011年1月在北京举行的一个慈善舞会上播出,巴菲特在其中操起四弦琴自弹自唱了一首《我一直在铁路上工作》(I've Been Working on the Railroad)。但吴征说,巴菲特发现这段唱歌视频会被插播在新年祝福视频中时提出了反对。吴征说自己答应了巴菲特的要求,将唱歌视频撤下。

吴征说他仍然期望网络春晚能播出巴菲特致中国观众的春节祝福。他说,巴菲特的新年祝福很棒。

Kersten Zhang / Carlos Tejada

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


Those expecting a song from U.S. investor Warren Buffett this Chinese New Year are likely to be disappointed.

Mr. Buffett has recorded a greeting that will appear on the website of China's annual Chinese New Year show later this month, according to organizers. But the greeting won't include a song, said Wu Zheng, co-chairman of Sun Media Investment Holding Ltd., a Chinese media company, and the person who connected the U.S. billionaire with the show's Chinese producers.

That's at odds with what Wang Pingjiu, a production executive for the broadcast, told a press conference on Thursday. In his statement, which was repeated by the state-run Xinhua news agency, Mr. Wang said Mr. Buffett would sing a song and play guitar in the online version of this year's Spring Festival gala. 'We all know that Buffett is good at investment, but few knew he also did well in singing,' Mr. Wang said, according to Xinhua.

The statement was broadly picked up by foreign media. It also set off a strong reaction on China's Sina Weibo microblogging service because Mr. Buffett is well-known in increasingly wealthy China, which prizes investment know-how.
The story appeared consistent with Mr. Buffett's previous behavior. The billionaire has long been known, including a cameo turn as '80s rocker Axl Rose in a 2010 video made by Geico Corp., the insurer owned by his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. investment vehicle. He's also no stranger to the Chinese Internet, having once lauded a Chinese suit maker in a video posted on its website.

But Xinhua's report raised a few questions among Buffett watchers. For one, Mr. Buffett is a ukulele enthusiast but doesn't appear to play guitar. Mr. Wang also declined to offer specifics on Mr. Buffett's appearance, including whether it would also appear on the Spring Festival television special, a four- to five-hour series of songs and skits produced by the state broadcaster that's watched by 700 million people in China and might be the world's most-viewed TV show.

Mr. Wang said on Friday that he worked with Sun Media's Mr. Wu to reach Mr. Buffett. In an interview, Mr. Wu said he indeed worked through Buffett family members to get hold of a video of Mr. Buffett wishing Chinese viewers a happy Chinese New Year. He also said he offered to the gala's producers a video of Mr. Buffett's son, Peter, who plays piano. (See an unrelated video of Peter accompanying his father.) .

Mr. Wu then planned to mix in a video Mr. Buffett recorded a year earlier for a charity the Chinese executive is involved with, the Sun Culture Foundation. In that video, which was shown at a charity ball in Beijing in January 2011, Mr. Buffett sang and played the ukulele to 'I've Been Working on the Railroad.'. But Mr. Wu said Mr. Buffett objected when he found out the singing video would be featured in the New Year's greeting. Mr. Wu said he acceded to Mr. Buffett's request and pulled it.

Mr. Wu says he still expects the online version of the gala will play Mr. Buffett's Chinese New Year greeting. 'Mr. Buffett's New Year's greeting is great,' he said.

Kersten Zhang / Carlos Tejada

2012年1月8日

别让上司挡住你的成功之路 Beware of Bosses Who Won't Let You Succeed

们都希望事业蒸蒸日上,但你的上司会希望你这样吗?

松下电器印度公司(Panasonic India Pvt)的人力资源与集团事务总监普拉山特•德奥•辛格(Prashant Deo Singh)说,不一定。

辛格说,许多管理者都对工作没有安全感,因此他们不愿让下属表现抢眼。相反,他们可能会抢员工的功劳。如果有可能,这种管理者还会避免雇佣他们认为可能取代他们的人。

他说,“这是管理者犯的最严重的错误之一。”

在与《华尔街日报》“印度实时报”栏目记者的交谈中,辛格谈了与这种管理者相处的窍门,以及顺利应聘松下公司的要诀。下面是经过编辑的对话节选。

《华尔街日报》:管理者们最常犯的错误是什么?

辛格:许多管理者都有控制欲。这是打击员工积极性的重要原因。管理者需要知道,人们讨厌被控制。

Panasonic India
松下电器印度公司的人力资源与集团事务总监普拉山特•德奥•辛格
我们也看到过许多没有安全感的管理者。他们往往会匿藏信息,不让下属的工作得到公司的承认。他们可能给团队成员指派较少的工作,或者不对他们的培训进行投入。

这种上司可能更喜欢不会挑战其权威的员工。他们甚至会由于担心员工取代他们,而不雇佣比他们聪明的人。

这些就是管理者们可能会犯的严重错误。

此外,有些管理者并不在意员工的需求,可能还会羞辱他们,这是不对的。人都应该得到尊重。

《华尔街日报》:那么,员工该如何与没有安全感的上司相处呢?

辛格:首先,应该直面你的上司,指出他对你不公平的地方。比方说,如果上司没有给你充足的机会,或者抢了你的功劳,你应该说出来。

如果可能,在你的上司的上级在场的会议或论坛上努力展现你的工作。

如果这不管用,那么可以考虑向你上司的上司报告他的行为。

不过,当你评价上司时要公正。不要仅凭一两件事就做出判断。

如果你真的认为你的上司妨碍了你的事业发展,那么作为最后一招,你可以考虑换工作。

《华尔街日报》:好上司应该是什么样的?

辛格:好上司是能够激励员工,给他们空间并信任他们的人。

好上司会根据员工需求变换管理风格。年轻员工可能需要手把手地教,而资深团队成员则需要自主权。

此外,好的管理者会给员工提供实现期望业绩所需的工具和指导。管理者需要关心团队成员并确保他们的事业有进步。

而且,与员工建立私人关系也很重要。

《华尔街日报》:转换一下话题,全球经济衰退对贵公司的招聘计划有何影响?2012年消费品行业的招聘前景如何?

辛格:从全球看,由于全球经济环境的变化,松下公司进行了一些裁员,但印度分公司没有受到影响。

我们已经实现了2011年招聘600位销售、市场营销和制造部门员工的目标。

我们在印度的销售收入正在增长,而且我们正在通过开设新的分公司和新商店进行积极投资。

从长远角度看,松下印度也计划进入太阳能和环境相关业务领域,这会创造新的工作机会。

从整个消费品行业来看,2012年不会有积极的招聘动作,因为各家公司现在都很关注成本。

《华尔街日报》:在面试中,你最看重应聘者的哪两点?

辛格:第一,应聘者的眼光是否能超越个人利益。我们寻找的是能进行团队合作、而不会太以自我为中心的人。

尽管雄心很重要,但野心太大、太贪心也是有害的。

我们更关注情商和工作经验,而不是智商。高智商的人往往很追求物质。

我们希望员工不仅是好的执行者,还同样擅长人际交往。

第二,我们要招聘的是不仅能完成眼前工作、还能胜任长远发展的人。我们根据应聘者是否适合担任5-10年后的公司工作来评价他们。我们会自问,“如果这个人对市值10亿美元的公司来说很合适,那么他对市值20亿美元的公司来说合适吗?”

《华尔街日报》:你最讨厌应聘者哪一点?

辛格:傲慢、自负、没有耐心。我们不需要寻找成功捷径的人。

我最近面试过一位优秀的大学生,他说他希望成为一位“高净值”的人。显然,这是一个傲慢的回答。

这与我们谦恭礼让的指导原则不符。

《华尔街日报》:你们招聘员工的途径有哪些?

辛格:我们70%的招聘是通过员工推荐进行的。还有15%是通过职场顾问,剩下的则是通过校园招聘和专业求职网站进行的。

我们的员工中,一半是研究生以上学历,其中的管理学研究生被分进了销售部门和市场营销部门。

Nikita Garia

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


All of us want to move up in our careers, but does your boss want that for you?

Not necessarily, says Prashant Deo Singh, head of human resources and group affairs at electronics major Panasonic India Pvt.

Mr. Singh says that many managers are insecure about their jobs, so they don't let their subordinates' shine. Instead, they might take credit for their employees' work, adds Mr. Singh. When possible, such managers avoid hiring people who they think could replace them.

'This is one of the most serious mistakes that people managers make,' he says.

In a conversation with India Real Time, Mr. Singh shares tips on how to deal with such managers, as well as pointers on being hired at Panasonic. Here are edited excerpts:

IRT: What are the common mistakes people managers make?

Mr. Singh: Many managers have a controlling mentality. This is a serious cause of de-motivation for employees. Managers need to know that people hate to be controlled.

Also, we see a lot of bosses who are insecure. They tend to hoard information and don't let their subordinates' work be recognized by the company. They may delegate less work to their team members or not invest in their training.

These bosses may favor employees who don't challenge their authority. They could go to the extent of not hiring people who are smarter than them on fears that the employee could replace them.

These are serious mistakes that people managers make.

Besides, some people managers may not be sensitive to their employees' needs and may humiliate them, which is not correct. A human being should be treated with respect.

IRT: So, how should an employee deal with an insecure boss?

Mr. Singh: First, confront your boss with ways in which he or she is not being fair to you. For instance, if the boss is not giving you ample opportunities or taking credit for your work, you should say so.

When possible, try and showcase your work in meetings or forums where your managers' superiors can see it.

If this doesn't work, consider reporting your manager's behavior to his or her boss.

However, be fair when you are evaluating your boss. Don't base your judgment on one or two incidents.

As a last resort you might consider switching your job, if you truly believe your manager is hampering your career growth.

IRT: What defines a good boss?

Mr. Singh: A good boss is one who can inspire employees, give them space and trusts them.

Good bosses tailor their management style depending on the employee's needs. A young recruit might need some hand-holding, while senior team members need to be given autonomy.

Moreover, a good manager provides employees the necessary tools and guidance to meet performance expectations. The manager needs to be caring and should ensure that the team member's career is progressing.

Also, it's important to connect with the employee at a personal level.

IRT: Switching gears, how has the global economic slowdown affected your hiring plans? What is the outlook for hiring in the consumer goods sector in 2012?

Mr. Singh: Globally, Panasonic has seen some layoffs due to changes in the global economy but the Indian arm was not affected.

We have been able to achieve our 2011 target of hiring 600 people in sales, marketing and manufacturing.

Our sales are growing in India, and we are investing aggressively by opening up new branches and new shops.

From a longer-term perspective, Panasonic India is also planning to enter the solar energy and environment-related businesses, which could create new jobs.

More broadly in the consumer goods industry, we won't see aggressive hiring in 2012 since companies are keeping a close eye on costs.

IRT: What are two things you look for in a candidate during a job interview?

Mr. Singh: The first thing is whether the person can look beyond his or her interest. We are looking for individuals who are team players and aren't too self-centered.

While ambition is important, over-ambition and greed are harmful.

We pay more attention to the emotional quotient and work experience instead of the intelligence quotient. People with high IQs tend to be materialistic.

We want people who are not just good performers but those who are equally high on people skills.

Secondly, we not only look to hire someone for an immediate role but also for the long term. We evaluate candidates on the basis of how they will fit in with the company five or 10 years from now. We ask ourselves: 'If this person is good for a $1 billion company, is he good for a $2 billion company?'

IRT: What annoys you most about a job candidate?

Mr. Singh: Arrogance, overconfidence and impatience. We are not looking for people who want shortcuts to success.

I interviewed a college topper recently who said that he wants to be a 'high net worth' individual. Obviously, that's an arrogant reply.

This does not match our guiding principles which are humility and courtesy.

IRT: What routes do you use for hiring?

Mr. Singh: 70% of our recruitment is done through employee referrals. Another 15% is through consultants and the remaining from campuses and professional networking websites.

Half of our workforce comprises management graduates who are into sales and marketing, and the rest are at least graduates.

Nikita Garia