2012年11月20日

中国新一代领导人:李克强 Next Premier Came Of Age In Era Of Openness

1978年底,一群中国法学学生在东部城市南京实习时,首次听说北京的异见人士在市里的一道砖�上张贴政治诗歌、宣传页和标语。

据其中的一位学生说,李克强就在这群学生之列。李克强上周四成为中共新领导班子中的二号人物,并将于明年3月出任国务院总理,主掌世界第二大经济体。

Reuters / AP
互动图:中国新一代领导人
一开始,部分在南京实习的学生想赶紧回到北京,参加"民主�"运动。但他们的教授禁止他们这样做,警告说"民主�"运动将是昙花一现。学生们待在了南京;"民主�"被封,很多在上面张贴标语的人被投入监狱。

这件小事从一定程度上显示出1978年至1982年李克强在北京大学学习时中国活跃的气氛,李克强在那时首次接触到西方法律和政治概念。那个时期正值毛泽东去世、中国开始市场化改革后,中国不同寻常的开放。

围绕上周中共领导层换届的主要问题之一是,李克强是否会利用自己所受的教育来鼓励现任总理温家宝经常讲到但从未实施的改革。

从很大程度上这将取决于他与习近平的关系。习近平上周四接替胡锦涛成为中共中央总书记。

据党内人士说,在新一届中央政治局常委会的七位常委中,仅有两位是胡锦涛的门生,李克强是其中的一位,他也是胡锦涛首选的接班人。习近平和其他四位常委则是胡锦涛的前任江泽民所支持的。

但李克强成为党内二号人物,地位早早获得了提升:温家宝在中央政治局常委中仅排在第三位,排在第二位的是全国人大常委会委员长。或许更重要的是,除习近平外,李克强是中共新一代领导人中唯一一个将在五年任期后连任常委的人,而2017年将可能有更多胡锦涛的盟友成为常委。

分析人士说,李克强绝非戈尔巴乔夫(Mikhail Gorbachev):他的整个政治生涯在党内行事都很谨慎,他的保护人胡锦涛担任中共中央总书记的10年,中国经济改革陷入停顿,一些政治自由被取消。但据党内人士和政治分析人士说,李克强学生时代接触的西方思想以及他的很多同辈人追求的折中主义仕途,这些都使他有别于上一代及新一代领导人中的很多人。

他也是为数不多的英语相对流利的领导人之一。

新加坡国立大学(National University of Singapore)教授薄智跃说,李克强必须改变自己的思维方式,以便在官僚环境下取得成功,但李克强内心深处实际上是一个自由派,无论是政治方面还是经济方面。李克强在北大求学时,薄智跃也是北大学生,并且认识李克强。薄智跃说,从思想观念上说,他非常开放。

同习近平等其它几位新任常委一样,李克强这一代人在十几岁时经历了1966至1976年文化大革命的动乱,曾接受过"上山下乡"的"再教育"。

但令李克强与众不同的是,他完全依靠自己的才华考上了大学,是1949年以来中国首批学习西方法学和政治理论的大学生之一。这和习近平有着明显不同,后者的父亲是一位知名革命领袖。

按照习近平自己的描述,1975年他离开农村并进入北京的清华大学学习是由于当地中共官员和他父亲求情。当时中国的大学还处于混乱之中,很多大学教师都还还在"下放",没有返校。

李克强是"七七级"的一员。"七七级"是指1977年参加高考进入大学学习的一批人。经过文革动荡期间漫长的中断之后,中国在毛泽东去世后的1977年恢复了高考制度,当年的高考是中国历史上竞争最激烈的一次。

李克强在北京大学的同学中,有几个人后来参加了1989年在天安门广场举行的民主抗议活动。这场抗议活动遭到了中国军方的镇压,从而结束了中国在政治上相对开放的10年。

在课余时间,北大学生常常聚集在校内知名的"三角地"交换各类书籍、音乐和理念。大家还听台湾流行歌手邓丽君的歌,当时邓丽君的歌被斥为"靡靡之音"而遭禁。

在2008年发表的一份有关学生时代的简短回忆录中,李克强写道,在这个时期,知识在以爆炸式的速度增长。我到北大不仅是学知识,而且是为了塑造一种气质,掌握一门学科。

李克强的同学回忆说,李克强很安静,学习非常刻苦,大多数时间都用于学习英文。他的同学何勤华在一篇回忆录中说,李克强走路时,在食堂排队买饭时,甚至在骑车或等公交车时都在背英语。

他的同学说,李克强同那些后来成为异见人士的活动分子走得不是特别近。

但李克强深受他的教授之一龚祥瑞的影响。龚祥瑞教授上世纪30年代曾留学伦敦政治经济学院(London School of Economics),曾公开主张多党制的优点。

龚祥瑞选择李克强进入一个小组翻译英国法学家丹宁勋爵(Lord Denning)的名著《法律的正当程序》(The Due Process of Law),并请李克强帮助他准备一本行政法方面的新书。

参与翻译丹宁勋爵这本著作的另外一位译者是杨百揆。杨百揆是李克强的同学,因为参加89事件而被判入狱11个月。

不过李克强同一个学生组织进行的带有试验性质的竞争性选举划清了界限,转而在中共体制内逐级晋升。

1982年从北大毕业后,李克强在共青团工作了15年,后来重回北大读在职研究生,在厉以宁教授的指导下攻读经济学硕士学位。厉以宁是中国最早主张市场化改革的人士之一,人称"厉股份"。

李克强的论文是关于城市化的──中国官员最近在与一位西方银行家的会谈中一再提到城市化问题。随着未来10年中国领导人努力通过刺激内需、特别是农民工的消费而实现经济再平衡,城市化将是中国面临的一个重要问题。

李克强的学术及政府工作背景与温家宝截然不同。温家宝学地质出身,工作后先是在中国偏远的西北部地区做了14年的地质学家。在出任总理之前,他从未担任过部长或主持一个省的工作。

李克强曾任中国人口第一大省河南省的省委书记及中国工业化程度最高的省份之一辽宁省的省委书记。他现为常务副总理,辅佐温家宝管理经济。

从李克强的从政记录看,他胜任其职,但表现并不突出。

一些人将河南的一桩丑闻归咎于他。上世纪90年代,河南有数万人在卖血后感染了HIV病毒。李克强的同班同学说,这个问题始于李克强在河南的前任。

在辽宁省,李克强因推出一项棚户区改造及为一百万人改善住房的计划而被人们牢记。担任副总理期间,他还负责实施一项2015年前建设3,600万套保障房的计划,他说保障房可以帮助推动消费。

美国官员说,在实现中国经济再平衡的问题上,李克强听起来比温家宝更真诚。他们认为温家宝有时只是走走过场。实际上,李克强常常使用"城市化"这个词而不是"再平衡"。

李克强今年还批准出版了世界银行(World Bank)与国务院发展研究中心撰写的报告《中国2030》(China 2030)。该报告主张打破很有影响的国有企业的垄断。

李克强对政治改革的看法则没有这么明确,但他的同班同学说,由于他的很多亲密朋友是律师、法官和法学教授,他清楚地了解中国法律制度的薄弱。

他的一位同班同学说,他明白问题所在,但问题是,他能否改变这种体制,抑或是被体制所改变?

JEREMY PAGE

(Bob Davis对本文亦有贡献)


77级:恢复高考后的首批大学生

李克强在高考竞争史无前例激烈的一年进入了北大求学。同一时期在北大上学的人包括:

―王绍光:"新左派"、香港中文大学(Chinese University of Hong Kong)教授

―张伟:曾是中共官员,在89事件后辞职,后去剑桥大学(Cambridge)教授经济学

―何勤华:华东政法大学校长

―王军涛:上世纪80年代一份地下杂志的发行人,89事件后入狱四年,后流亡美国。

―杜春:司法部律师公证工作指导司司长

―杨百揆:89事件中曾参与撰写请愿书,后因"反革命罪"入狱

(更新完成)

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


In late 1978, a group of Chinese law students were on a field trip to the eastern city of Nanjing when they first heard that dissidents in Beijing were pasting political poems, pamphlets and slogans on a brick wall downtown.

Among the students, according to one of them, was Li Keqiang, the man who on Thursday took the No. 2 slot in a new Communist Party leadership and is set to become premier and chief steward of the world's second-largest economy in March.

At first, some of the students in Nanjing wanted to rush back to Beijing to join the 'Democracy Wall' movement. But their professor forbade them, warning that the movement would be short-lived. The students stayed in Nanjing; the Democracy Wall was shut down and many of those who used it were jailed.

The episode gives a taste of the heady atmosphere in which Mr. Li was first exposed to Western concepts of law and politics while studying at Peking University from 1978 to 1982─an era of unusual openness following the death of Chairman Mao Zedong and the launch of market-oriented reforms.

One of the key questions surrounding this week's leadership change is whether Mr. Li will draw on his education to encourage the kind of reforms that the current premier, Wen Jiabao, often spoke about but never delivered.

Much will depend on his relationship with Xi Jinping, who replaced Hu Jintao as party chief on Thursday.

Mr. Li is one of only two protégés of Mr. Hu in the new seven-man leadership and was his first choice as successor, according to party insiders. Mr. Xi and four others are backed by Mr. Hu's predecessor, Jiang Zemin.

But Mr. Li was given an early boost when he garnered the second rank in the party: Mr. Wen had only been No. 3, with the No. 2 spot held by the head of China's rubber-stamp parliament. Perhaps more important, Mr. Li is the only member of the new leadership apart from Mr. Xi who will stay on beyond the next five-year term, and more Hu allies could join the body in 2017.

Mr. Li is no Mikhail Gorbachev: He has toed the party line for his entire career and his patron, Mr. Hu, has presided over a decade in which economic reforms stalled and some political freedoms were rolled back, analysts say. But his exposure to Western ideas as a student, and the eclectic careers pursued by many of his contemporaries, set him apart from many in both the previous and the new generation of leaders, according to party insiders and political analysts.

He is also one of the few leaders with relatively fluent English.

'He has had to modify his way of thinking to succeed in a bureaucratic environment, but deep down Li Keqiang is really a liberal, politically and economically,' said Bo Zhiyue, a professor at the National University of Singapore, who was a contemporary and an acquaintance of Mr. Li's at Peking University. 'Intellectually, he's very open.'

Like other members of the new Standing Committee, including Mr. Xi, Mr. Li is part of a generation who were taken out of school as teenagers and sent into the countryside for 're-education' during the turmoil of the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution.

What makes him different─especially from Mr. Xi, whose father was a famous revolutionary─is that he relied solely on his talents to win a university place and was among the first students since 1949 to study Western law and political theory.

Mr. Xi, according to his own accounts, secured his escape from the countryside and a place at Beijing's Tsinghua University in 1975 thanks to lobbying by local party officials and his own father. At that time, the university was still in chaos and many teachers had not returned from internal exile.

Mr. Li was one of the 'Class of '77' who won their university places in the most competitive entry examinations in China's history in 1977─the year after Mao's deaths when exams were revived after a long hiatus amid the Cultural Revolution turmoil.

His contemporaries at Peking University included several people who later became involved in the pro-democracy demonstrations around Tiananmen Square in 1989, which were crushed by the military, bringing to an end the decade of relative political openness.

In their spare time, students used to congregate in an area known as the 'Triangle' to exchange books, music and ideas. They listened to songs by Teresa Teng, a Taiwanese pop star whose music was banned for being too sensual.

'In this period, knowledge was expanding with the speed of an explosion,' Mr. Li wrote in a brief memoir of his student days published in 2008. 'I came here looking not just for knowledge, but to mold a kind of temperament, to master a kind of academic discipline.'

Classmates remember Mr. Li as a quiet, obsessively hardworking student who spent much of his time trying to master English. 'He recited it while he was walking, while queuing to eat in the canteen, even when riding or waiting for the bus,' recalled He Qinhua, a classmate, in a memoir.

Contemporaries say he wasn't particularly close to those who went on to become dissidents.

But Mr. Li was strongly influenced by one of his professors, Gong Xiangrui, who had studied at the London School of Economics in the 1930s and who publicly advocated the virtues of a multiparty system.

Mr. Gong chose Mr. Li to be part of a group to help translate the book 'The Due Process of Law' by Lord Denning, the British jurist, and to prepare a new book on administrative law.

One of the others who helped translate Lord Denning's book was Yang Baikui, a fellow student who was jailed for 11 months for his role in the 1989 demonstrations.

Mr. Li, though, distanced himself from experimental competitive elections for one student body, and instead climbed through the ranks of the Communist system.

Graduating in 1982, he spent 15 years in the Communist Youth League, but returned to Peking University to do a part-time master's degree in economics under professor Li Yining, an early advocate of market reforms, known as 'Mr. Shareholding.'

Li Keqiang wrote his thesis on urbanization─something Chinese officials repeatedly pointed out in recent meetings with one Western banker. Urbanization is a critical issue for China over the next decade as leaders try to rebalance its economy by stimulating domestic consumption, especially among rural migrants.

His academic and administrative records stand in contrast to those of Mr. Wen, who studied geology and spent the first 14 years of his career working as a geologist in China's remote northwest. He had never been a minister or run a province when he became premier.

Mr. Li has governed Henan, China's most populous province, and Liaoning, one of its most industrialized. Most recently, he has been executive vice premier, helping Mr. Wen to run the economy.

Mr. Li's record in government has been competent if unremarkable.

Some blame him for a scandal in Henan, in which tens of thousands of people were infected with HIV after giving to blood banks in the 1990s. Classmates say that the problem began under Mr. Li's predecessor in Henan.

In Liaoning, Mr. Li is remembered for spearheading a plan to renovate slums and improve housing for a million people. As vice premier, he also championed a campaign to build 36 million affordable homes by 2015, arguing that social housing helps to boost consumption.

U.S. officials say Mr. Li sounds more sincere about rebalancing China's economy than Mr. Wen, who they believed sometimes was just going through the motions. In fact, Mr. Li often uses the word 'urbanization' instead of 'rebalancing.'

Mr. Li also endorsed publication this year of a report called 'China 2030' prepared by the World Bank and China's state-backed Development Research Center, which advocated breaking apart powerful state sector monopolies.

His views on political reform are less clear, but classmates say he has a clear understanding of the weakness of China's legal system as many of his close friends are lawyers, judges and law professors.

'He understands the problem,' said one classmate. 'The question is: Can he change the system, or has the system changed him?'

JEREMY PAGE
─Bob Davis contributed to this article.

Class of '77

Li Keqiang won entry to Peking University in a year of record competition for a spot. Among his contemporaries:

Wang Shaoguang ─ 'New leftist' professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong

Zhang Wei ─ Onetime party highflier who resigned after Tiananmen and went on to teach economics at Cambridge

He Qinhua ─ President of the East China University of Political Science and Law

Wang Juntao ─ Publisher of an underground magazine in the 1980s who spent four years in prison after the Tiananmen crackdown and went into exile in the U.S.

Du Chun ─ Director of the Ministry of Justice's Department for Directing Lawyers and Notarization

Yang Baikui ─ Jailed on 'counterrevolutionary' charges after helping to write petitions in the 1989 demonstrations

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