2013年11月10日

三中全会开幕 聚焦经济改革 China Holds Conclave Over Economic Reforms

共十八届三中全会周六拉开帷幕,会上将提出未来的经济改革方案,目标是提振放缓的中国经济,解决多年来高速增长积累下来的失衡问题。

Associated Press
改革开放这些年
依照传统,本届为期四天的三中全会仍将是闭门会议,会议动态将最小限度地实时公开。官方媒体新华社只就会议开幕发表了一篇简短报道。新华社称,中央委员会将讨论全面深化改革重大问题。

若中共延续以往做法,那么会议细节要到下周二闭幕时才会公布。据官员和国有媒体称,列入议程的改革措施将为私营企业创造更广阔的空间、推进金融市场化、并降低农村人口移居城市的难度。

中国经济增速放缓凸现出改革的必要性,依靠投资和出口驱动的增长模式正面临挑战。中共中央总书记、国家主席习近平说,中国经济应当更加依赖于消费和创新。他反复强调(最近一次是在上周),中国需要避免像许多发展迅速的经济体那样陷入中等收入陷阱。

但外界对这次会议的期望很高。习近平近一年前出任中共中央总书记时,领导层曾提到过解决一系列问题的必要性,包括经济公平、腐败、环境质量下降等问题。批评人士认为这些都是其前任未解决的问题。经济学家、媒体评论员和一些习近平身边的官员此前将这次会议宣传为新一届领导层提出政策目标的时机。

这种宣传在一定程度上是参照了历史情况。十八届三中全会是由近400人(来自中共、政府和军队)组成的中央委员会集中讨论政策的首个机会。一中全会和二中全会主要是解决中共和政府的人事问题。在三中全会上(特别是1978年和1993年的三中全会),中共主要致力于提出重大市场改革方案。

尽管外界期望颇高,但评论人士预计三中全会提出渐进的、而非激进的改革方案。一些经济学家认为调整经济结构需要解决的一些问题并不在此次会议的议程上。其中最主要的问题是提高国有企业竞争力。

主要国有媒体淡化了实施快节奏改革的可能性。新华社网站上的大标题称,三中全会将"稳中求进"。

Charles Hutzler

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


An elite body of China's ruling Communist Party opened a crucial policy conclave Saturday to endorse reforms to bolster a slowing economy and address imbalances built up during years of torrid growth.

The four-day meeting of the Central Committee, in keeping with tradition, is taking place behind closed doors and with minimal real-time publicity. The official Xinhua News Agency issued a terse report confirming the meeting's opening. It said the body would discuss 'major issues concerning comprehensively deepening reforms.'

If the party hews to past practice, details of the gathering won't be released until it closes Tuesday. Among the reforms on the table, according to officials and state media, are reforms to create more space for private businesses, liberalize the financial sector and make it easier for rural Chinese to move to urban areas.

Driving the need for change is an overall slowing of the economy, as the growth driven by investment and exports flags. Party leader and President Xi Jinping has said that the economy should become more reliant on consumption and innovation. He has said repeatedly, as recently as this week, that China needs to avoid the pitfalls that many fast-growing economies reach when once-reliable sources of growth stall.

But the meeting itself comes freighted with heavy expectations. When Mr. Xi took office as party leader nearly a year ago, the leadership's platform talked of the need to tackle issues of economic fairness, corruption, environmental degradation and other problems that critics said his predecessors had left unaddressed. Economists, media commentators and some officials around Mr. Xi have billed the meeting as the time the new leadership would lay out its policy goals.

That billing in part stems from historical precedent. The meeting, officially known as the Third Plenum of the 18th Central Committee, is the first chance for the nearly 400-member body drawn from the party, government and military to focus on policy. The first two meetings are taken up with party and government personnel decisions. Past Third Plenums, notably in 1978 and 1993, committed the party to undertake major market reforms.

Despite the expectations, commentators expect that the reform program endorsed will be gradual, rather than radical. Off the agenda are several nettlesome issues some economists have said need to be addressed to restructure the economy. Chief among them is making state enterprises more competitive.
Major state media played down the chances for fast-paced change. Xinhua's banner headline on its website said the meeting would 'seek new advances amid stability.'

Charles Hutzler

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