要说眼下有什么事情会让投资者惴惴不安，那就是害怕中国正对美国国债失去胃口。
美国国债市场是全球规模最大、流动性最强的资产市场，在全球金融体系中居于核心地位。借助这一市场，美国政府才得以筹集资金，填补其数万亿美元的预算赤字。直到不久以前，中国一直是美国国债最大的海外官方持有者。
正是由于这个原因，美国财政部最新发布的国际资本流动数据(TIC)才引起了躁动。数据显示，去年12月，中国减持美国国债的数额创下纪录。
中国12月的持有量比前月减少342亿美元，至7554亿美元。这让投资者再度感到不安，认为中国因为担心其未来价值，正在分散投资，减持美国国债。
中国的美国国债持有量明显少于2009年5月8015亿美元的峰值，而当前中美之间在一系列问题上的政治摩擦正不断加剧，例如巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)会晤达赖喇嘛，美国对台军售，以及美国向中国施压要求将人民币升值等。
“这些事态发展需要密切关注，因为它们可能会让中国对美国国债失去热情，”东京瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)首席经济学家Yasunari Ueno表示。“目前的一个关键问题是，在与美国双边关系日益恶化的情况下，今年中国会如何行事？”
他表示，2008年9月雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭后，中国把大量资金投向了美国国债，目前，中国可能真的已开始调整外汇储备结构，减持这种资产类别。不过，包括Ueno在内的多数分析师都认为，12月份中国减持美国国债的意义可能更为寻常。他们还告诫不要过于看重TIC。TIC月度数据往往波动较大，而且容易受到交易偏差的影响。
另外，由于中国人民银行等亚洲央行使用了在海外大型金融中心的托管机构，人们无法弄清他们的真实持有量，这也给TIC数据罩上了一层迷雾。
交易商们认为，去年中国可能通过香港和伦敦买入了大量美国国债。去年12月，香港持有的美国国债增至1529亿美元，远高于2008年12月的772亿美元。
英国持有的美国国债也猛增至3025亿美元，而10月份为2301亿美元。
就TIC报告中中国所持美国国债的结构而言，12月份数据显示，中国所持短期国债大幅减少，但增加了长期国债的购买。当月，中国减持短期美国国债388亿美元，增持长期国债46亿美元。
分析师表示，中国似乎没有出售所持的美国国债，而是在手中的短期国债到期后，利用部分资金购买更长期的国债。沿着收益率曲线增加对美国国债的购买，在一定程度上表明中国相信美国政府的偿债能力。从TIC数据看，中国没有把投资分散到美国股票或企业债券。
金融危机期间，中国大举增持短期美国国债，2009年5月，持有量从2008年年中的140亿美元增至2100亿美元，如今则回落至700亿美元左右。
“最新数据与中国迅速减持短期美国国债的情况相符。中国还会继续这么做，潜在的理想持有量可能接近200亿美元，”RBS Securities策略师阿兰•鲁斯金(Alan Ruskin)表示。
“中国只是在微调其投资组合，而随着美国各银行和消费者继续减轻负债，美国国内将涌现出购买美国国债的足够需求，”MF Global全球利率高级副总裁约翰•布雷迪(John Brady)表示。
Ueno表示，中国减少美国国债购买，最有可能的原因是12月份中国外汇储备增长速度放慢。对于12月份的TIC数据，资本经济(Capital Economics)的朱利安•杰瑟普(Julian Jessop)认为，中国只是稍微歇了口气，不久还会继续买入美国国债。
况且，就算中国对美国国债避而远之，只要其它买家能够补上缺口，就未必会给市场造成麻烦。事实上，由于其它国家加大买入力度，美国国债收益率目前仍处于去年夏季的峰值范围内。
值得注意的是，去年12月，日本超过中国，成为美国国债最大的海外持有者，而且自去年5月以来，日本的月度购买量一直在增加。去年12月，被视为与美国关系更为稳定的日本持有美国国债7688亿美元，同比增加1428亿美元。分析师认为，中国没有理由大量减持美国国债，因为这么做会给自己造成严重后果。
分析师表示，假如中国对美国国债的需求消失不见，并开始抛售美国国债，美国利率会上升。这可能扼杀美国的经济复苏，损害中国的出口。同时，随着国债收益率上升、价格下跌，中国目前持有的大量美国国债价值也将缩水，从而损害其外汇储备中的一个重要支柱。
此外，人民币与美元之间的联系，也决定了中国多样化其外汇储备的能力必然存在限度。
“只要人民币盯住美元，中国就需要把贸易顺差的美元再转为美国资产，”德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)高级投资顾问杰拉尔德•卢卡斯(Gerald Lucas)表示。
这是TIC数据受到密切关注的另一个原因。假如最新数据标志着中国开始分散投资、减持美国国债和其它美元资产，市场对人民币升值的广泛预期就有可能转化为现实。
译者/杨远
If there is one thing that gets investors twitchy, it is the fear that China is losing its appetite for US government bonds.
As the biggest and most liquid pool of assets in the world, the US Treasury market lies at the heart of the global financial system and allows the American government to finance its trillion-dollar budget deficits. Until recently, China has been the largest foreign official holder of US debt.
That is why the latest release of Treasury International Capital (Tic) data, showing that China's holdings of Treasuries fell by a record amount in December, has caused something of a stir.
China's holdings fell by $34.2bn to $755.4bn from the previous month, prompting renewed jitters that the country was diversifying from Treasuries over fears about their future value.
China's holdings have fallen from a peak of $801.5bn in May 2009, and the data come at a time of heightened political friction between Beijing and Washington over issues such as Barack Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama, US weapons sales to Taiwan, and pressure on China to revalue the renminbi.
“These developments require monitoring because they could cause China to become even less enthusiastic buyers of US Treasuries,” says Yasunari Ueno, chief economist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo. “A key issue now is how China will act in 2010 in light of the deteriorating bilateral relationship with the US.”
China may have indeed started to rebalance its foreign reserve portfolio from US Treasuries, he says, having piled into the asset class after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. But most analysts, including Mr Ueno, believe the December dip in China's holdings of US Treasuries more likely has more mundane explanations. They also caution against reading too much into the Tic data, which is prone to big monthly swings and is subject to so-called transactional bias.
Tic data is further clouded as the true holdings of Asian central banks such as the People's Bank of China are obscured by their use of custodians in big financial centres offshore.
Dealers believe China may have made significant purchases in the past year through Hong Kong and London. Treasury holdings by Hong Kong rose to $152.9bn in December – up from $77.2bn in Dec 2008.
Meanwhile, UK holdings of Treasuries have also surged, reaching $302.5bn in December, from $230.1bn in October.
In terms of China's portfolio of Treasuries in the Tic report, the December data show a further big reduction in holdings of short-dated bills and buying of longer-dated coupon debt. China's T-bill holdings dropped by $38.8bn in December while its holdings of notes rose by $4.6bn.
Rather than selling any of its holdings, China appears to have let the bills mature and then used some of the proceeds to buy longer-dated coupons, analysts say. Extending its purchases along the yield curve is, partly, a sign of China's confidence in the US government's ability to service its debt. The Tic data show that China has not diversified into US equities or corporate bonds.
During the financial crisis, China built up holdings of short-dated T-bills from $14bn in mid-2008 to $210bn by May 2009 and they are now back around $70bn.
“The latest data is consistent with them shrinking the T-bill mountain rapidly, although there is more to come, as the likely underlying desirable holdings of T-bills is probably nearer $20bn,” says Alan Ruskin, strategist at RBS Securities.
“China is simply fine tuning its portfolio and as US banks and consumers continue deleveraging, there will be enough domestic demand to buy Treasuries,” says John Brady, senior vice-president of global interest rates at MF Global.
Mr Ueno says the most probable cause of China's decline in Treasury purchases, is simply that the country's foreign reserves grew at a slower pace in December. Julian Jessop, economist at Capital Economics, predicts that December's Tic data represent a brief pause before China's purchases of Treasuries resume.
And even if China is shifting out of US Treasuries, it would not necessarily cause trouble in the market as long as other buyers step into the breach. Indeed, US Treasury yields remain well inside last summer's peaks as other countries have stepped up their buying.
Significantly, Japan overtook China as the biggest foreign holder of US Treasuries in December, and its monthly purchases have been consistently rising since May. The country, which is seen as having a more stable relationship with the US, held $768.8bn of Treasuries in December, an increase of $142.8bn from the previous year. Analysts see little rationale for China to reduce its Treasury holdings dramatically, given that such a move would be likely to have severe consequences for Beijing.
If Chinese demand for Treasuries disappeared and it started selling, US interest rates would rise, analysts say. This could throttle a US economic recovery, damage Chinese exports, and also reduce the value of China's existing vast holdings of Treasuries as yields rose and prices fell, damaging a key plank of its currency reserves.
Moreover, China's currency link with the US dollar entails there is a limit to how far they can diversify their foreign reserves.
“So long as China's currency is pegged to the US dollar, they will need to recycle their trade surplus dollars back into US assets,” says Gerald Lucas, senior investment adviser at Deutsche Bank.
Which is yet another reason why Tic data is being closely watched. If the latest numbers mark the beginnings of a diversification by China away from US Treasuries and other dollar assets, a widely speculated rise in the value of the renminbi against the dollar is on the cards.
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031347
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