今年五月，全球第二大奢侈品公司瑞士历峰集团(Richemont)董事长兼CEO约翰•鲁珀特(Johann Rupert)深度剖析了欧洲奢侈品公司与中国之间错综复杂的关系，鲁珀特本人是南非人，说话快人快语。
他曾在电话会议上对投资者说："几年前，本人曾说过：稍不留神，整个欧洲很快就会成为中国游客的露天博物馆。诸位，如今这种状况基本应验。"
在摩洛哥的马拉喀什市(Marrakech)举办的2012年《金融时报》国际顶级时尚品牌行业高峰会(FT Business of Luxury summit )上，出席峰会的各路大腕应该都能认识到中国游客对奢侈品行业的重要性。分析师与奢侈品行业高管的共识是：去年亚洲消费者占据了欧洲奢侈品销售额的半壁江山。
根据咨询公司盛富证券(Cheuvreux)分析师托马斯•梅曼(Thomas Mesmin)估算，约三分之一的中国大陆消费者出国旅游时，会选择就地购物，其中至少75%的大陆游客会选择在欧洲购物。香港与澳门也是游客颇为青睐的旅游目的地。
2011年，中国大陆游客贡献了欧洲奢侈品销售额的一半。据追踪奢侈品购物游的专业服务商环球蓝联(Global Blue)估计：中国消费者去年到欧洲、新加坡及香港旅游购物，平均每次花费1.1万欧元。
这些旅游地的魅力就在于：其奢侈品的价格要比中国内地便宜三分之一之多，主要原因就是中国要征收进口关税。
受欧元区的经济危机影响，各大行业高管正疲于应对低迷的消费需求，而中国消费者对售价400欧元的万宝龙星际旅行笔(Mont Blanc Starwalker pens)以及售价2000欧元的LV Lockit手包趋之若鹜，正是拜他们所赐，才使得整个奢侈品行业去年有了近2000亿欧元创纪录的销售额。
然而，2012年国际奢侈品买家四处出击，却对鲁珀特及其竞争对手——路易维登的伯纳德•阿尔诺(Bernard Arnault)以及巴黎春天(PPR)的弗朗索瓦•亨利•皮诺特(François-Henri Pinault)——这样的行业巨子提出了不小的挑战。他们是应该在欧洲提价、以鼓励更多的中国买家留在本国购物，还是甘冒这样的风险、让本已脆弱的欧洲消费需求雪上加霜，要知道，欧洲的消费者已经深受本地区经济紧缩之苦。
因此，当中国消费者更愿意到米兰、巴黎或者伦敦购物，欧洲的奢侈品公司怎能本末倒置、花巨资在中国开设门店？它们该如何把中国、巴西、俄罗斯以及非洲的游客吸引至欧洲门店呢？
全球几大奢侈品公司2012年首季的销售额证实：全球富豪的消费趋势正在改变奢侈品行业的走向。
2011年，全球奢侈品行业的销售实现了14%的平均增长幅度，让之前所有的悲观预测不攻自破，路易维登与英国时尚零售品牌巴宝莉(Burberry)的销售数据显示：中国市场第一季度的奢侈品销售出现了小幅减速。高管们把这归咎于越来越多的中国游客在欧洲以及美国（远逊于欧洲）购物。
有数据为证：2012年头三个月，虽说经济衰退让欧洲本地人的奢侈品需求一蹶不振，但欧洲奢侈品整体销售依然抢眼，超出了市场预期。
路易维登首席财务官让-雅克•盖恩伊(Jean-Jacques Guiony)说，今年第一季度欧元兑人民币的汇率变化使得中国大陆与欧洲之间的奢侈品差价高达47%，引发中国游客大举出国购物。
专注亚太地区的券商里昂证券(CLSA)分析师艾伦•费舍尔(Aaron Fischer)与高颂妍(Mariana Kou)估计：随着中国国内消费出现放缓的迹象，今年奢侈品行业的销售额增速会降至约10%。
尽管如此，费舍尔与高颂妍仍认为"中国经济放缓，不会对高端奢侈品的销售产生重大影响，原因是中国大陆的富豪仍会维持自己奢侈品支出占总支出23%至25%的水平"。
由于中国游客仍是购买奢侈品的主力军，费舍尔与高颂妍预计：今年全球最知名奢侈品公司（多数为欧洲品牌，如路易维登、历峰及普拉达(Prada)）的销售额仍会有15%的增幅。
分析师们说：欧洲的奢侈品价格通常比中国国内要便宜三分之一，中国消费者遂涌至欧洲购物，但随之而来的销售额与利润会因欧洲奢侈品公司的提价而变得荡然无存。
中国奢侈品的售价比欧洲要高很多，主要原因是中国政府征收的进口关税。欧洲征收的奢侈品增值税约为17%，而在上海，它们却要交17%的增值税、11%的进口税以及20%的消费税。
路易维登首席财务官盖恩伊告诉投资商，面对如此处境，体现出"灵活性"显得至关重要，此举被分析师们理解成是公司准备提高欧洲市场的产品零售价。
梅曼与盛富证券另一分析师、同事于尔根•库伯(Jürgen Kolb)认为：由中国消费者到欧洲购物带来的顶线增长（top-line growth也称为营利增长，即营销效应所产生的收入增长）与盈利所造成的负面影响相当有限，而且很容易从其它方面得到补偿。
译者/常和
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001045050#s=d
In May, Johann Rupert, the straight-talking South African chairman and chief executive of Switzerland-based Richemont, the world's second-largest luxury goods group, provided an insight into the European luxury houses' complex relationship with China.
He told investors on a conference call: "A few years ago, I said: if people do not watch it, Europe will become an open-air museum for travelling Chinese. Well, we are halfway there."
There will probably be few at the 2012 FT Business of Luxury Summit. in Marrakech, Morocco, this week who do not recognise the importance of Chinese tourists to their industry. Analysts and luxury goods executives widely agree that Asian consumers accounted for half of the sales of luxury goods made in Europe last year.
Thomas Mesmin, an analyst at Cheuvreux, the consultancy, reckons up to a third of mainland Chinese consumers may have chosen to make purchases while away from home, with at least 75 per cent of these choosing to shop in Europe. Hong Kong and Macau are among other favoured tourism destinations.
Shoppers from mainland China made up half of all sales of luxury goods in Europe in 2011. Global Blue, a Switzerland-based tracker of luxury goods tourism, estimates Chinese consumers on average spent €11,000 on each shopping trip to Europe, Singapore or Hong Kong in the past year.
The attraction of such locations is that luxury products can be as much as a third cheaper because of China's import duties.
As Mr Rupert's counterparts in other industries struggle with depressed demand because of the effects of the eurozone crisis, it is the Chinese demand for €400 Mont Blanc Starwalker pens and €2,000 Louis Vuitton Lockit bags that helped the luxury sector report record sales of nearly €200bn last year.
Nonetheless, for 2012, the staggering mobility of the international luxury goods consumer poses challenges for industry titans such as Mr Rupert and his French rivals Bernard Arnault at LVMH and François-Henri Pinault at PPR. Should they raise prices in Europe to encourage more Chinese to shop at home? Or would that risk killing already weak demand from austerity-hit Europeans?
How can they juggle costly store openings in China when customers prefer to shop in Milan, Paris or London? And how do you appeal to Chinese, Brazilian, Russian and African travellers in a European store?
First-quarter results for 2012 from the largest luxury brands confirm that the trend for spending among the global wealthy is changing the shape of the industry.
After 2011's average 14 per cent rise in global luxury goods sales smashed all expectations, figures from LVMH and Burberry, the UK fashion retailer, showed a slight slowdown in the first quarter emanating from China. Executives attributed this to Chinese tourists shopping in larger numbers in Europe, and to a lesser extent, the US.
To support this theory, sales of luxury goods in Europe were stronger than expected in the first three months of 2012, exceeding market expectations, despite the battering of local demand due to recession.
Jean-Jacques Guiony, finance director at LVMH, has said changes in currency values in the first quarter of this year led to price differentials between mainland China and France of as much as 47 per cent, which encouraged Chinese to shop abroad.
Aaron Fischer and Mariana Kou of Asian brokerage CLSA estimate the rise in total luxury goods industry sales this year will slow to about 10 per cent as signs emerge of a lessening in Chinese consumption at home.
Nonetheless, Mr Fischer and Ms Kou also believe that "China's slowdown should not have a major impact on high-end sales, since the wealthy maintain their luxury goods budget at 23 to 25 per cent of spending".
They expect revenues at the biggest global brands – most of them European names such as Louis Vuitton, Richemont and Prada – to increase by 15 per cent, as the Chinese luxury goods traveller remains centre-stage.
The squeeze on sales and margins brought about by Chinese consumers shopping more cheaply in Europe, where goods on average cost a third less than in China, can be offset if companies raise prices, analysts say.
Prices are higher in Asia largely because of duties imposed by the Chinese authorities. In Europe, luxury goods include value added tax of about 17 per cent, while in Shanghai they are subject to VAT of 17 per cent, import tax of 11 per cent and consumption tax of 20 per cent.
Mr Guiony at LVMH has told investors that "flexibility" in such an environment is vital, a comment that analysts have taken to mean the group is ready to raise European retail costs.
Mr Mesmin and Jürgen Kolb, a fellow analyst at broker Cheuvreux, consider the negative impact of top-line growth and profitability from Chinese consumers shopping in Europe will be fairly limited, and easily compensated
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