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先让你注意的，是他浓重的曼彻斯特口音。接下来或许是那件有点皱的西服。事实上吉姆•奥尼尔(Jim O'Neill)就是一个奇异的组合──一位身着银行家正装的教授。然而正是这位知名经济学家、即将卸任的高盛资产管理公司(Goldman Sachs Asset Management)董事长，在10多年前发现了大部分投资者都没有注意到的四个国家的潜力。它们分别是巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国。奥尼尔称之为“金砖四国”(BRIC)，然后这个称号名扬四海，因为它如此巧妙地表达了世界经济实力从发达大国向他处转移的趋势。因为这个缘故，金砖四国还开始更加紧密地合作。现在缩略语先生（当面可别这么叫他）要退休了，不过估计还是会有很大的影响。借此机会，他给出了几条新的预测，粉丝们会希望这些预测同样睿智。以下是经过编辑的对他的访谈内容。
Photography by Jillian Edelstein
奥尼尔因擅长调整数据模型使之更贴切地反映现实而为人所知。他对美国预算赤字的解读十分大胆。
奥尼尔：我的观点会引发争议：由于金砖四国的缘故，2011年到2020年全球GDP总量将强于过去三个10年中的任何一个10年。中国每年创造出一个新的西班牙。仅2011年一年的时间，金砖四国以美元计算的GDP增量就相当于意大利的经济总量。
到2015年，金砖四国GDP总量恐怕将高于美国。所以金砖四国的发展将越来越多地成为全球GDP的真正推动器。
《华尔街日报》：你预计金砖四国将有何表现？
奥尼尔：中国经济增长的放缓几乎是肯定的，它将放缓到每年7%、而非10%的增速。我认为印度有望实现每年10%以上的增长，但对此我没有把握。我预计巴西的增长率为5%，俄罗斯为4%。
《华尔街日报》：这么说来你对印度最乐观了？
奥尼尔：印度在本10年无疑拥有金砖四国当中最大的增长潜力。它拥有惊人的人口条件。其出生率非常高，所以它的人口结构始终在改善，并且非常年轻。接下来20年印度劳动年龄人口的增量，有望达到今天美国劳动年龄人口的总量。这非常之惊人。
但印度要实现这种潜力，肯定也需要进行改革。首先它需要接纳外商直接投资。印度什么时候才会真正对外商直接投资敞开大门呢？这是一个非常重大的问题。我慢慢觉得，对于印度是不可以过于乐观的，因为那里的情况实在是太复杂。
《华尔街日报》：俄罗斯为什么落后于金砖四国中的其他国家？
奥尼尔：俄罗斯人口条件最差，对能源生产的依赖性也是最强。我认为油价已经见顶的可能性很大，大宗商品的超级周期即将落幕。油价自2000年以来基本上都是在上涨，但2008年无疑已经见顶。我这一年一直表示投资者应当看空油价，现在我还是这样认为。
《华尔街日报》：金砖四国的最大增长风险是什么？
奥尼尔：我们刚刚避开了最大的风险，即美国与中国之间打贸易战。我曾害怕米特•罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)赢得总统选举，但现在这种风险已经不复存在，这是好事。另一个风险是中国政府无法控制某种中国式的民主化。我觉得他们有推进政治改革的打算，但速度不会很快。我在中国呆过很长时间，见过很多重要人物。有一件事他们谈得很多，那就是他们希望更加注重创新和创造。这意味着要允许个人变得更有创造力，去承担更多的风险。这就需要给予他们更大的自由。所以，我将非常密切地关注这方面的情况。其过程非常难料，可能会非常、非常困难，如果领导人处置不当，中国可能就会遭遇硬着陆。
《华尔街日报》：中国朝着注重国内消费的方向转型，将对美中关系及全球经济增长产生何种影响？
奥尼尔：我非常紧密地关注着中国零售业销售额的趋势，其中的趋势是非常惊人的。我们已经看到了销售额加速增长的确凿迹象。我认为，习近平主席承继的经济体已经在实现调整。
如果国内消费增加的趋势进一步发力，那么美中关系应该会受到相当大的影响。美国将能够向中国出售越来越多的产品，同时并不希望从中国进口同样多的产品。美国将更多地把中国视为机遇而非威胁。对于向中国消费者销售消费品的美国企业来说，这是一个大好机会。
本10年的实质是美国越来越像中国，中国越来越像美国。这就是我如此看好全球经济增长的原因。我好奇的是，国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)对这种事情居然不是更加乐观。你看2008年的那场危机，它不过就是美国消费过多、中国消费过少，美国贸易逆差过大、中国贸易顺差过大。但两国对这些问题的纠正都已取得明显进展。美国目前的贸易逆差约占GDP的3%，中国贸易顺差约占GDP的2.5%，所以这是非常令人鼓舞的。
《华尔街日报》：你对欧元区有何展望？
奥尼尔：我认为欧洲将回到了无生趣的状态。按欧洲标准衡量，过去两年的起伏实在是太大。欧洲骨子里是一个了无生趣的地方。欧洲本10年的增长潜力在1.5%到2%的样子。欧元区的危机确实是大起大落，但我们终将以这种或那种方式化解危机，问题在于什么时候化解。这也是一个极其重大的问题。
《华尔街日报》：美国是否将迎来增长？
奥尼尔：我预计本10年年均增长率为2.5%。按过去30年的标准来看，这会令人失望，但美国在上个10年平均每年只实现了1.6%的增长。美国存在两种困境，一是它需要增加生产、减少消费，二是它拥有一个巨大的财政问题。
从某些方面来讲，欧洲对财政赤字的处理走在了美国的前面。美国必须收紧财政政策，除此以外别无他法。当然短时间内是要支撑经济，但从更长远来讲，财政赤字问题必须解决。美国今天的财政问题比欧洲任何一个国家都更加严重。据我们的计算，美国经周期性因素调整后的财政赤字占GDP的6.3%左右，高于包括希腊在内的任何一个欧洲国家。经周期性因素调整，就是根据经济体所在经济周期来判断它的表现。
《华尔街日报》：有没有什么新的缩略语说给我们听？
奥尼尔：我不想被称为缩略语先生。有人声称我最近又发明了一个缩略语叫做“迷雾四国”(MIST)，即墨西哥、印度尼西亚、韩国和土耳其。
我认为，这四个国家和金砖四国一样，应当区别于其他新兴市场看待，因为它们的GDP都占到了全球总量的1%以上，都是重要经济体。我认为本10年迷雾四国将会有不错的表现，但不会有金砖四国那么好。
《华尔街日报》：你最希望去金砖四国中的哪个国家访问？
奥尼尔：当然是巴西。因为他们喜欢足球，我也喜欢足球。2012年我没去印度，但我去了巴西、俄罗斯和中国。我过去去中国最多。
《华尔街日报》：鲁吉•夏尔马(Ruchir Sharma)的《经济突破型国家》(Breakout Nations)一书引起了一定的关注。对于他对“金砖国家”这个概念的批评，你有何回应？
奥尼尔：我没有看过此书。我不否认这几个国家各不相同，但那又怎样呢？他们都拥有巨大的人口和巨大的潜力。俄罗斯被认为“最弱”，但它在本10年给全球GDP带来的增量恐怕比整个欧元区还要多。
Min Zeng
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
WHAT YOU NOTICE FIRST is his thick Manchester accent. Then maybe the somewhat disheveled suit. Indeed, Jim O'Neill is an unlikely mix of a man--a professor dressed in a banker's suit. But the well-known economist and outgoing chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management was the guy who more than a decade ago spotted the potential in four countries that most investors were ignoring: Brazil, Russia, India and China. He dubbed them the 'BRICs,' and the title gained wide notoriety because it so aptly expressed a shift in global economic power away from big developed countries. The four BRIC nations even began working more closely together as a result. Now retiring, but still expected to be influential, Mr. Acronym (don't call him that to his face) offered a few new predictions that his fans will hope are just as smart. His edited remarks follow.
Q: Let's start with your outlook for global growth in the current decade.
A: Controversially, I think world gross-domestic product between 2011 and 2020 will be stronger than each of the past three decades because of the BRICs. China creates another Spain every year. In 2011, just one year, the increase of dollar GDP in the four BRIC countries was equivalent to the size of Italy's entire economy.
By 2015, the aggregate GDP for the four BRIC countries will probably be bigger than the U.S. So what's going on in BRIC countries will be increasingly the real driver of global GDP.
Q: How do you expect the four BRIC nations to perform?
A: China's growth is almost definitely going to slow--to 7 percent annually instead of 10 percent. I think India could grow by more than 10 percent per year, but I am not sure. I am assuming Brazil will grow by 5 percent, and Russia by 4 percent.
Q: So you are most optimistic about India?
A: India definitely has the biggest potential for growth among BRIC countries this decade. India has incredible demographics. It has a very strong birth rate, which means the demographic profile is improving all the time and it is very young. During the next 20 years, the increase in the size of the working population in India could be as large as the total number of people working in the U.S. today. It is absolutely incredible.
But of course India needs to carry out reform for this to happen. It needs to embrace foreign direct investment for a start. When will India really open the door to foreign direct investments? That is the billion-rupee question. I have learned that with India, you can't be overly hopeful because the situation there is so complex.
Q: Why is Russia a laggard among the BRICs?
A: Russia has the weakest demographics. It is also the most dependent on energy production. I think it is quite possible oil prices have peaked and that the commodity super cycle is coming to an end. Since 2000, oil prices have basically risen, though the absolute peak was in 2008. I have been saying all year that investors should be bearish on oil, and I continue to think so.
Q: What's the biggest risk to the growth of the BRICs?
A: We just missed the biggest risk--a U.S. trade war with China. I was nervous about Mitt Romney winning the presidential election, but now that risk is gone and that's a good thing. Another risk is that the Chinese government will not be able to control a Chinese-style shift to democracy. I think they plan to advance political reform, but it will happen slowly. I've spent a lot of time in China and I've met a lot of important people. One of the things they talk about a lot is that they want to give more attention to innovation and creativity. That means allowing individuals to be more creative and to take more risks. You have to provide more freedom. So I am going to be watching this very closely. The process is very unpredictable. It could be very, very difficult. If the country's leaders mishandle it, China could suffer a hard landing.
Q: How will China's shift to focusing on domestic consumption impact U.S.-China relations and global growth?
A: I monitor the trend of real retail sales in China very closely, and it has been fantastic. We have seen strong signs of acceleration. I think President Xi Jinping inherited an economy that is already adjusting.
If the trend toward increased domestic consumption gathers steam, it should improve U.S.-China relations dramatically. The U.S. will be able to sell more and more to China and will not want to import as much from China. The U.S. will see China less as a threat and more as an opportunity. It is a fantastic opportunity for U.S. companies that sell consumer products to Chinese consumers.
What this decade is all about is the U.S. becoming more and more like China, and China becoming more like the U.S. This is why I am so bullish on the global growth. I am amazed that the International Monetary Fund is not more optimistic about this kind of thing. You look at the 2008 crisis, and it was all about the U.S. consuming too much, and China consuming too little. The U.S. has too big of a trade deficit, and China has too big of a trade surplus. But both countries are making significant progress in the other direction. The U.S. trade deficit is now about 3 percent of GDP, and China's trade surplus is about 2.5 percent, so it is really encouraging.
Q: What is the outlook for the euro zone?
A: I suspect Europe will go back to being boring. By European standards, the past two years have been far too exciting. At the core of it, Europe is a dull place. European growth potential is about 1.5 to 2 percent for this decade. Yes, the crisis in the euro zone is dramatic, but we will eventually resolve the crisis one way or the other. The question is, when? And that is still a one-trillion-euro question.
Q: Is the U.S. poised for growth?
A: I see 2.5 percent annual growth for this decade. By the standard of the past 30 years, this would be disappointing. But the U.S. only grew an average of 1.6 percent annually in the past decade. The U.S. has two dilemmas. First, it has to produce more and consume less. And second, the U.S. has a big fiscal problem.
In some ways, Europe is ahead of the U.S. in addressing fiscal deficits. The U.S. has to tighten its fiscal policy. It has no choice. Of course, in the short term you need to support the economy, but in the longer term the fiscal deficit must be addressed. If you look at the U.S. fiscal situation today, it is worse than that of every European country. According to our calculations, the cyclically adjusted fiscal deficit in the U.S. is about 6.3 percent of GDP. That is higher than every European country, including Greece. Cyclically adjusted is a way of looking at how an economy is doing based on where it is in its business cycle.
Q: Any new acronyms for us?
A: I don't want to be known as Mr. Acronym. People claimed I recently created another one: MIST, or Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey.
What I believe is that these four nations, along with the BRICs, should be regarded as distinctive from the rest of the emerging world because they all account for more than 1 percent of global GDP. They are the big guys. I think MIST countries will do well but not as well as the BRICs this decade.
Q: What's your favorite BRIC country to visit?
A: Brazil, easily. Because they love football, and so do I. I didn't go to India in 2012, but I went to Brazil, Russia and China. I used to travel to China the most.
Q: Ruchir Sharma's book 'Breakout Nations' got some attention. What is your response to his criticism of BRICs as a concept?
A: I didn't read it. I don't disagree with the fact they are different, but so what? They share large populations and huge potential. Russia, the supposed 'weakest,' is probably going to add more to global GDP this decade than the entire euro zone.
Min Zeng
Q: Let's start with your outlook for global growth in the current decade.
A: Controversially, I think world gross-domestic product between 2011 and 2020 will be stronger than each of the past three decades because of the BRICs. China creates another Spain every year. In 2011, just one year, the increase of dollar GDP in the four BRIC countries was equivalent to the size of Italy's entire economy.
By 2015, the aggregate GDP for the four BRIC countries will probably be bigger than the U.S. So what's going on in BRIC countries will be increasingly the real driver of global GDP.
Q: How do you expect the four BRIC nations to perform?
A: China's growth is almost definitely going to slow--to 7 percent annually instead of 10 percent. I think India could grow by more than 10 percent per year, but I am not sure. I am assuming Brazil will grow by 5 percent, and Russia by 4 percent.
Q: So you are most optimistic about India?
A: India definitely has the biggest potential for growth among BRIC countries this decade. India has incredible demographics. It has a very strong birth rate, which means the demographic profile is improving all the time and it is very young. During the next 20 years, the increase in the size of the working population in India could be as large as the total number of people working in the U.S. today. It is absolutely incredible.
But of course India needs to carry out reform for this to happen. It needs to embrace foreign direct investment for a start. When will India really open the door to foreign direct investments? That is the billion-rupee question. I have learned that with India, you can't be overly hopeful because the situation there is so complex.
Q: Why is Russia a laggard among the BRICs?
A: Russia has the weakest demographics. It is also the most dependent on energy production. I think it is quite possible oil prices have peaked and that the commodity super cycle is coming to an end. Since 2000, oil prices have basically risen, though the absolute peak was in 2008. I have been saying all year that investors should be bearish on oil, and I continue to think so.
Q: What's the biggest risk to the growth of the BRICs?
A: We just missed the biggest risk--a U.S. trade war with China. I was nervous about Mitt Romney winning the presidential election, but now that risk is gone and that's a good thing. Another risk is that the Chinese government will not be able to control a Chinese-style shift to democracy. I think they plan to advance political reform, but it will happen slowly. I've spent a lot of time in China and I've met a lot of important people. One of the things they talk about a lot is that they want to give more attention to innovation and creativity. That means allowing individuals to be more creative and to take more risks. You have to provide more freedom. So I am going to be watching this very closely. The process is very unpredictable. It could be very, very difficult. If the country's leaders mishandle it, China could suffer a hard landing.
Q: How will China's shift to focusing on domestic consumption impact U.S.-China relations and global growth?
A: I monitor the trend of real retail sales in China very closely, and it has been fantastic. We have seen strong signs of acceleration. I think President Xi Jinping inherited an economy that is already adjusting.
If the trend toward increased domestic consumption gathers steam, it should improve U.S.-China relations dramatically. The U.S. will be able to sell more and more to China and will not want to import as much from China. The U.S. will see China less as a threat and more as an opportunity. It is a fantastic opportunity for U.S. companies that sell consumer products to Chinese consumers.
What this decade is all about is the U.S. becoming more and more like China, and China becoming more like the U.S. This is why I am so bullish on the global growth. I am amazed that the International Monetary Fund is not more optimistic about this kind of thing. You look at the 2008 crisis, and it was all about the U.S. consuming too much, and China consuming too little. The U.S. has too big of a trade deficit, and China has too big of a trade surplus. But both countries are making significant progress in the other direction. The U.S. trade deficit is now about 3 percent of GDP, and China's trade surplus is about 2.5 percent, so it is really encouraging.
Q: What is the outlook for the euro zone?
A: I suspect Europe will go back to being boring. By European standards, the past two years have been far too exciting. At the core of it, Europe is a dull place. European growth potential is about 1.5 to 2 percent for this decade. Yes, the crisis in the euro zone is dramatic, but we will eventually resolve the crisis one way or the other. The question is, when? And that is still a one-trillion-euro question.
Q: Is the U.S. poised for growth?
A: I see 2.5 percent annual growth for this decade. By the standard of the past 30 years, this would be disappointing. But the U.S. only grew an average of 1.6 percent annually in the past decade. The U.S. has two dilemmas. First, it has to produce more and consume less. And second, the U.S. has a big fiscal problem.
In some ways, Europe is ahead of the U.S. in addressing fiscal deficits. The U.S. has to tighten its fiscal policy. It has no choice. Of course, in the short term you need to support the economy, but in the longer term the fiscal deficit must be addressed. If you look at the U.S. fiscal situation today, it is worse than that of every European country. According to our calculations, the cyclically adjusted fiscal deficit in the U.S. is about 6.3 percent of GDP. That is higher than every European country, including Greece. Cyclically adjusted is a way of looking at how an economy is doing based on where it is in its business cycle.
Q: Any new acronyms for us?
A: I don't want to be known as Mr. Acronym. People claimed I recently created another one: MIST, or Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey.
What I believe is that these four nations, along with the BRICs, should be regarded as distinctive from the rest of the emerging world because they all account for more than 1 percent of global GDP. They are the big guys. I think MIST countries will do well but not as well as the BRICs this decade.
Q: What's your favorite BRIC country to visit?
A: Brazil, easily. Because they love football, and so do I. I didn't go to India in 2012, but I went to Brazil, Russia and China. I used to travel to China the most.
Q: Ruchir Sharma's book 'Breakout Nations' got some attention. What is your response to his criticism of BRICs as a concept?
A: I didn't read it. I don't disagree with the fact they are different, but so what? They share large populations and huge potential. Russia, the supposed 'weakest,' is probably going to add more to global GDP this decade than the entire euro zone.
Min Zeng
