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周日，中共中央总书记习近平、中国国家主席胡锦涛、中国总理温家宝和副总理李克强在参加完政协开幕式后准备离场。
中
国的全国人大会议将于本周召开，会议将揭晓10年一次的领导层换届的最终人事变动，并让人们对于新一届政府解决日益严重的社会、经济和环境问题的决心有所了解。许多中共内部人士担心，上述问题正在损害中共的执政地位。习近平将在人大会议上就任基本上只具有仪式性的中国国家主席一职。这将是他的第三个职位。他已经在去年11月领导层换届开始时接替胡锦涛担任中共中央总书记和中央军委主席。全国人民代表大会将于周二开始，预计将持续10天左右。
中共新领导班子中的二号人物李克强将接替温家宝担任总理，成为世界第二大经济体的掌舵者，并将在人大会议结束时举行记者招待会，接受中外记者的提问。
据分析人士和外交人士说，橡皮图章式的全国人大预计将表决通过一些部委的合并、2013年7.5%的GDP增长目标、军事预算的大幅扩张，以及数十个国家和政府高层职位的任命。全国人大共有约3,000名代表。
据一名直接了解情况的中共内部人士说，主要的人事变动包括，中共最高决策机构中央政治局的七名常委之一张高丽预计将成为副总理，在新的经济领导团队中扮演有影响力的角色。
这名人士还说，李源潮将接替习近平担任国家副主席的职位，李源潮目前是拥有较大权力的中共组织部部长，曾在党内实施过有限的政治改革，但是他没有进入新一届中共中央政治局常委会。李源潮晋升至一个通常在常委会中有一席之地的职位将提高他在国际上的知名度，使其在2017年拥有晋升最高领导机构的优势。
另一名曾经实施过相对自由的经济和政治改革的领导人汪洋预计将作为副总理加入经济团队。汪洋去年也未能当选中共中央政治局常委。这名党内人士说，不过目前还不清楚他将主管金融、工业还是农业。
全国人大是判断新一届领导人是否将实施大范围经济改革的早期风向标。胡锦涛和温家宝多年以来一直在谈经济改革，但是在这方面毫无成效。经济改革意味着更加依赖内需，减少对国内资本密集型产业投资以及中国出口需求的依赖。
去年11月以来，习近平就反腐和反对公款浪费发表了一系列措辞严厉的讲话，他的首次正式考察去了南方城市深圳，引发了公众对改革的热切期望。众所周知，在1989年的政治动乱后，1992年前领导人邓小平在"南巡"中再次推出了市场化改革。
作为习近平提出的厉行勤俭节约的一部分，全国人大代表和政协委员被告知应避免举办宴会、欢迎仪式和长篇讲话，而警方接到的命令是尽量减少首都北京的交通管制。
但新的领导层目前为止一直未公布经济改革日程的细节，也未说明计划如何应对公众日益感到不满的其他问题──特别是严重的空气、土壤和水污染，以及党内普遍存在的滥用职权的问题。去年围绕中共高官薄熙来的丑闻凸显出了这一问题。
预计人大将批准的一项重要改革是国务院机构调整计划，其中的一条是将铁道部并入交通部。很多分析人士认为，此举与2011年高速铁路撞车事故及同年铁道部部长刘志军因腐败指控被解职有关。
据了解计划的中国学术人士说，食品安全监管部门也可能出现归并，国家海洋局的权力将扩大。近年来中国曝出了一连串的食品安全丑闻，食品安全是又一个令公众非常不满的问题。国家海洋局负责南中国海(South China Sea，中国称南海)和东中国海(East China Sea，中国称东海)争议岛屿周边地区的海上巡逻工作。
中国专家说，机构调整意在减少官僚程序，增强部门间的协作，打破体制内的既得利益集团。但很多分析人士对此表示怀疑，他们说需要从根本上进行更多的改革，比如迫使所有的官员公开财产，增强政府的透明度和问责制。
预计机构调整的力度也将比早些时候的一项计划要弱，此前的计划可能还会影响经济规划、能源和信息技术部门。无党派智库鲍尔森学院(Paulson Institute)中国问题专家Damien Ma说，很有可能不会出现几个月前一些人提出的那样力度非常大的改革。
在经济问题上，分析人士预计人大会议上将提出可能会提高普通中国人收入的具体提案。居民收入是使中国经济实现再平衡的一个重要组成元素。
这类提案可能包括放宽对外来务工人员的限制，提高国有企业上缴红利比例，将其用于社会福利项目，调整财政政策，减少地方政府对征收销售农民土地所得的收入的依赖。现有的限制使外来务工人员的养老和女子教育都有困难。
一位花旗(Citigroup)的分析师说，新一届政府将可能决定目前的增长模式是否能够持续长久。
从很大程度上讲，十二五规划已经设定了中国的政策方向。十二五规划涉及的时间是2011年至2015年，规划广泛支持中国经济实现再平衡的目标。习近平和李克强曾是批准十二五规划的那一届中共中央政治局常委会的委员。中共经济学家刘鹤曾参与十二五规划的编制，预计他将是习近平的高级经济顾问。刘鹤写道，十二五规划的思路是在出口需求下滑之际扩大内需──这样的转型规划起来很难。
2013年GDP增长7.5%的目标并不是种预测。至少过去18年中，中国经济增速一直在这个目标之上，并且是远在其之上。相反，这个目标意在向省级领导人发出这样的信号，两位数的经济增长时代已经成为过去，他们需要减少对大型投资项目的依赖。
地方领导人是否真正领会了这一信号，目前显现出的迹象有好有坏。一方面，据野村(Nomura)的一项分析说，地方政府将2013年经济增长目标较2012年平均下调了0.5个百分点。另一方面，地方政府继续依靠基础设施支出来推动经济增长，而不是采取减税等措施来扩大消费支出。
香港智库经纶国际经济研究院(Fung Global Institute)院长沈联涛(Andrew Sheng)说，7.5%的增速算是合理的，可以给经济一定的调整空间。去年，中国GDP增长了7.8%，外界普遍认为今年的增速将有所提高。
另外一个可能会有更明确答案的问题是，李克强提出的推进"城镇化"步伐到底是什么意思。李克强在很多讲话中都使用了这个词。中国目前约有一半人口居住在城市，城镇居民收入比农村要高得多。城镇人口的进一步扩大可能使更多的钱流入外来务工人员口袋，他们可以用来买车、电视机、电器、房地产，以及中产阶级生活的其他"装备"。
研究中国问题的经济学家说，为鼓励农村人口进一步迁移到城镇，中国需要改变对外来务工人员的限制，包括向他们发放工作城市的居住证。只有这样，外来务工人员才能享受养老、医疗和子女公共教育等权利，才能更加没有顾虑地把钱用于消费。但几乎没有哪个中国城市愿意承担由此产生的额外社会支出。
苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)经济学家、前世界银行(World Bank)中国问题专家高路易(Louis Kuijs)说，在扩大外来务工人员公共服务和保障房项目、实现更加平衡的城镇化过程所需的政策方面，可能会公布比过去更具体的方案。
但李克强的城镇化讲话可能已经加深了其他经济问题，包括随着开发商和购房者为城镇人口大幅增加做准备，房地产泡沫有死灰复燃的危险。
上海房价继去年12月同比上涨36%后，今年1月再涨35%。上周五，中国政府公布了若干限制房价上涨的政策，包括向个人出售住房征收20%资本所得税。
全国人大会议上公布的计划是新一届领导人推进经济政策过程的一部分。预计10月召开的中共会议将有更详细的提案。
Jeremy Page / Bob Davis / Lingling Wei
（更新完成）
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
China begins a Parliament meeting this week that will unveil the final personnel changes of a once-a-decade leadership transition and provide some clues about the new administration's commitment to address mounting social, economic and environmental problems that many Communist Party insiders fear are eroding its grip on power.
Xi Jinping, who replaced Hu Jintao as Communist Party leader and military chief at the start of the succession process in November, will assume his third, largely ceremonial post as state president during the meeting of the National People's Congress, or NPC, which begins on Tuesday and is expected to last about 10 days.
Li Keqiang, who ranks number two in the new Party hierarchy, is due to replace Wen Jiabao as premier and chief steward of the world's second-largest economy, and will face questions from local and foreign reporters for the first time in that role during a news conference at the end of the Parliament meeting.
The roughly 3,000 deputies to the rubber-stamp Parliament are also expected to approve the merger of some ministries, a GDP growth target of 7.5% for 2013, a substantial expansion of the military budget and appointments to dozens of top state and government posts, according to analysts and diplomats.
Among the key personnel changes, Zhang Gaoli, another member of the Party's seven-man Politburo Standing Committee─its top decision-making body─is expected to become executive vice premier and an influential figure on the new economic team, according to one party insider with direct knowledge of the matter.
That person also said that Mr. Xi's successor as vice president was expected to be Li Yuanchao, the current head of the Party's powerful Organization Department who has overseen experiments with limited political reform within the party, but who missed out on a place on the new Politburo Standing Committee. Mr. Li's promotion to a position that normally commands a seat in the Standing Committee will raise his international profile and make him a front-runner for elevation to the top governing body in 2017.
Wang Yang, another person with a track record of relatively liberal economic and political reform who missed out on a Standing Committee slot last year, is expected to join the economic team as a vice premier, although it remains unclear if he will be in charge of finance, industry or agriculture, according to the party insider.
The Parliament meeting will be an early gauge of the new leaders' commitment to carrying out broad changes in China's economy that Messrs. Hu and Wen talked about for years, but did little to accomplish─remaking the economy so it relies more on domestic demand and less on investment in capital-intensive industries at home and demand for Chinese exports abroad.
Mr. Xi has raised public expectations of reform since November with a series of strong statements on corruption and government waste, and by using his first official trip to go to the southern city of Shenzhen, where former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping famously relaunched market reforms in 1992 following the political turmoil of 1989.
As part of an austerity and efficiency drive launched by Mr. Xi, delegates to the NPC─and a parallel meeting of a consultative body to Parliament─have been instructed to eschew banquets, welcoming ceremonies and wordy speeches, while police have been ordered to minimize traffic controls in the capital.
But the new leadership has so far given few details of its economic reform agenda, or how it plans to address other issues of growing public concern─especially severe air, soil and water pollution and rampant abuse of power within the party, which was highlighted last year by the scandal surrounding former Party highflier Bo Xilai.
One substantial change that Parliament is expected to approve is a plan to streamline the State Council─or cabinet─by, among other things, merging the Railways Ministry into the Ministry of Transport, a move that many analysts believe is linked to the crash of a high-speed train in 2011, and the dismissal the same year of the railways minister, Liu Zhijun, on corruption charges.
Agencies monitoring food safety─another issue of huge public concern following a string of scandals in recent years─may also be merged, and greater powers given to the State Oceanic Administration, the agency responsible for maritime patrols around disputed islands in the South China Sea and East China Sea, according to Chinese academics familiar with the plans.
Chinese experts say the restructuring is designed to cut down red tape, enhance interdepartmental coordination and break apart vested interests in the bureaucracy. But many analysts are skeptical, arguing that more fundamental changes are needed, such as forcing all officials to declare their financial assets publicly, to enhance government transparency and accountability.
The restructuring is also expected to be less aggressive than an earlier plan that could have affected the economic planning, energy and information technology bureaucracies as well. 'It is most likely not going to be the supercharged overhaul that some were floating a few months back,' said Damien Ma, a China expert at the Paulson Institute, a nonpartisan thank tank.
On the economic front, analysts are looking for specific proposals that could lift the incomes of ordinary Chinese, an essential ingredient in rebalancing the economy.
Such proposals could include easing restrictions on migrants that make it tough for them to get pensions and children's education, raising dividend payments by state-owned enterprises and using the money for social-welfare payments, and changing fiscal policy so localities rely less on income from the sale of land seized from farmers.
'The new administration will likely decide whether the current growth model can last for long,' said a Citigroup C +0.33% analysis.
In many ways, the policy direction is already set by China's current five-year plan which covers 2011 to 2015 and broadly endorses the rebalancing goal. Messrs Xi and Li were members of the previous Politburo Standing committee that approved the document. Liu He, a Party economist who helped write the plan and is expected to be a senior economic adviser to Mr. Xi, wrote that the 'logic' of the plan involves boosting domestic demand as export demand wanes─a transformation that is difficult to choreograph.
The 2013 GDP growth target of 7.5% isn't a forecast. China has grown faster than the target for the past 18 years at least─and often by a wide margin. Rather the target is meant to signal provincial leaders that the era of double-digit economic growth has passed and that they need to depend less on big investment projects.
There is mixed evidence about whether the message is getting through. On the one hand, local governments have reduced their 2013 growth targets by an average of 0.5 percentage points from 2012, according to a Nomura analysis. On the other hand, the governments continue to rely on infrastructure spending to boost growth, rather than taking steps to boost consumer spending, such as cutting taxes.
A 7.5% growth rate 'is not a bad rate to give the economy room to make adjustments,' said Andrew Sheng, president of the Fung Global Institute, a Hong Kong think tank. Last year, China's GDP grew 7.8% and is widely expected to grow somewhat faster this year.
Another question that may get a clearer answer is what Mr. Li means when he advocates further 'urbanization'─a catchall phrase that he uses in many of speeches. About half of China's population now lives in cities, where incomes are much higher than in rural areas. A further increase in the urban population could put more money in the pockets of China's migrants to spend on cars, televisions, appliances, real estate and the other accouterments of middle-class life.
To encourage further urban settlement, China needs to change restrictions on migrants, say China economists, including issuing them residence permits to live in the cities where they work. Only then are the migrants entitled to the pensions, health care and public education for their children that encourages them to spend more freely. But few Chinese cities are ready to pay for additional social spending.
'There may be more concrete announcements than before on policies needed to ensure more balanced urbanization by expanding the provision of public services and affordable housing to migrants,' said RBS economist Louis Kuijs, a former World Bank China expert.
But Mr. Li's talk of urbanization may have deepened other economic problems, including risking a re-emergence of a real-estate bubble as developers and buyers prepare for a big increase in the urban population.
In January, prices of apartments in Shanghai increased 35%, compared with the year earlier period, following a 36% increase in December, year-to-year. On Friday, China's government announced a number of policies to curb real-estate-price increases, including stricter enforcement of a 20% capital-gains tax on apartment sales.
The plans released at the NPC are part of a process in which the new leadership develops its economic policies. More detailed proposals are expected by an October Communist Party gathering.
Jeremy Page / Bob Davis / Lingling Wei
Xi Jinping, who replaced Hu Jintao as Communist Party leader and military chief at the start of the succession process in November, will assume his third, largely ceremonial post as state president during the meeting of the National People's Congress, or NPC, which begins on Tuesday and is expected to last about 10 days.
Li Keqiang, who ranks number two in the new Party hierarchy, is due to replace Wen Jiabao as premier and chief steward of the world's second-largest economy, and will face questions from local and foreign reporters for the first time in that role during a news conference at the end of the Parliament meeting.
The roughly 3,000 deputies to the rubber-stamp Parliament are also expected to approve the merger of some ministries, a GDP growth target of 7.5% for 2013, a substantial expansion of the military budget and appointments to dozens of top state and government posts, according to analysts and diplomats.
Among the key personnel changes, Zhang Gaoli, another member of the Party's seven-man Politburo Standing Committee─its top decision-making body─is expected to become executive vice premier and an influential figure on the new economic team, according to one party insider with direct knowledge of the matter.
That person also said that Mr. Xi's successor as vice president was expected to be Li Yuanchao, the current head of the Party's powerful Organization Department who has overseen experiments with limited political reform within the party, but who missed out on a place on the new Politburo Standing Committee. Mr. Li's promotion to a position that normally commands a seat in the Standing Committee will raise his international profile and make him a front-runner for elevation to the top governing body in 2017.
Wang Yang, another person with a track record of relatively liberal economic and political reform who missed out on a Standing Committee slot last year, is expected to join the economic team as a vice premier, although it remains unclear if he will be in charge of finance, industry or agriculture, according to the party insider.
The Parliament meeting will be an early gauge of the new leaders' commitment to carrying out broad changes in China's economy that Messrs. Hu and Wen talked about for years, but did little to accomplish─remaking the economy so it relies more on domestic demand and less on investment in capital-intensive industries at home and demand for Chinese exports abroad.
Mr. Xi has raised public expectations of reform since November with a series of strong statements on corruption and government waste, and by using his first official trip to go to the southern city of Shenzhen, where former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping famously relaunched market reforms in 1992 following the political turmoil of 1989.
As part of an austerity and efficiency drive launched by Mr. Xi, delegates to the NPC─and a parallel meeting of a consultative body to Parliament─have been instructed to eschew banquets, welcoming ceremonies and wordy speeches, while police have been ordered to minimize traffic controls in the capital.
But the new leadership has so far given few details of its economic reform agenda, or how it plans to address other issues of growing public concern─especially severe air, soil and water pollution and rampant abuse of power within the party, which was highlighted last year by the scandal surrounding former Party highflier Bo Xilai.
One substantial change that Parliament is expected to approve is a plan to streamline the State Council─or cabinet─by, among other things, merging the Railways Ministry into the Ministry of Transport, a move that many analysts believe is linked to the crash of a high-speed train in 2011, and the dismissal the same year of the railways minister, Liu Zhijun, on corruption charges.
Agencies monitoring food safety─another issue of huge public concern following a string of scandals in recent years─may also be merged, and greater powers given to the State Oceanic Administration, the agency responsible for maritime patrols around disputed islands in the South China Sea and East China Sea, according to Chinese academics familiar with the plans.
Chinese experts say the restructuring is designed to cut down red tape, enhance interdepartmental coordination and break apart vested interests in the bureaucracy. But many analysts are skeptical, arguing that more fundamental changes are needed, such as forcing all officials to declare their financial assets publicly, to enhance government transparency and accountability.
The restructuring is also expected to be less aggressive than an earlier plan that could have affected the economic planning, energy and information technology bureaucracies as well. 'It is most likely not going to be the supercharged overhaul that some were floating a few months back,' said Damien Ma, a China expert at the Paulson Institute, a nonpartisan thank tank.
On the economic front, analysts are looking for specific proposals that could lift the incomes of ordinary Chinese, an essential ingredient in rebalancing the economy.
Such proposals could include easing restrictions on migrants that make it tough for them to get pensions and children's education, raising dividend payments by state-owned enterprises and using the money for social-welfare payments, and changing fiscal policy so localities rely less on income from the sale of land seized from farmers.
'The new administration will likely decide whether the current growth model can last for long,' said a Citigroup C +0.33% analysis.
In many ways, the policy direction is already set by China's current five-year plan which covers 2011 to 2015 and broadly endorses the rebalancing goal. Messrs Xi and Li were members of the previous Politburo Standing committee that approved the document. Liu He, a Party economist who helped write the plan and is expected to be a senior economic adviser to Mr. Xi, wrote that the 'logic' of the plan involves boosting domestic demand as export demand wanes─a transformation that is difficult to choreograph.
The 2013 GDP growth target of 7.5% isn't a forecast. China has grown faster than the target for the past 18 years at least─and often by a wide margin. Rather the target is meant to signal provincial leaders that the era of double-digit economic growth has passed and that they need to depend less on big investment projects.
There is mixed evidence about whether the message is getting through. On the one hand, local governments have reduced their 2013 growth targets by an average of 0.5 percentage points from 2012, according to a Nomura analysis. On the other hand, the governments continue to rely on infrastructure spending to boost growth, rather than taking steps to boost consumer spending, such as cutting taxes.
A 7.5% growth rate 'is not a bad rate to give the economy room to make adjustments,' said Andrew Sheng, president of the Fung Global Institute, a Hong Kong think tank. Last year, China's GDP grew 7.8% and is widely expected to grow somewhat faster this year.
Another question that may get a clearer answer is what Mr. Li means when he advocates further 'urbanization'─a catchall phrase that he uses in many of speeches. About half of China's population now lives in cities, where incomes are much higher than in rural areas. A further increase in the urban population could put more money in the pockets of China's migrants to spend on cars, televisions, appliances, real estate and the other accouterments of middle-class life.
To encourage further urban settlement, China needs to change restrictions on migrants, say China economists, including issuing them residence permits to live in the cities where they work. Only then are the migrants entitled to the pensions, health care and public education for their children that encourages them to spend more freely. But few Chinese cities are ready to pay for additional social spending.
'There may be more concrete announcements than before on policies needed to ensure more balanced urbanization by expanding the provision of public services and affordable housing to migrants,' said RBS economist Louis Kuijs, a former World Bank China expert.
But Mr. Li's talk of urbanization may have deepened other economic problems, including risking a re-emergence of a real-estate bubble as developers and buyers prepare for a big increase in the urban population.
In January, prices of apartments in Shanghai increased 35%, compared with the year earlier period, following a 36% increase in December, year-to-year. On Friday, China's government announced a number of policies to curb real-estate-price increases, including stricter enforcement of a 20% capital-gains tax on apartment sales.
The plans released at the NPC are part of a process in which the new leadership develops its economic policies. More detailed proposals are expected by an October Communist Party gathering.
Jeremy Page / Bob Davis / Lingling Wei
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