康
斯坦丁•盖兹(Konstantin Gaaze)是个前途大好的俄罗斯年轻人。年仅30岁的他是俄罗斯占主导地位的日报《莫斯科新闻》(Moskovskie Novosti)的政治编辑，原先还曾担任俄罗斯卫生部长的顾问。在经济蓬勃发展的俄罗斯，作为政治圈内人士的他应该有一个光明的前途。但实际却是，盖兹正准备离开俄罗斯。他说，“我正在考虑移民以色列。事关经济方面的发展机会问题。在俄罗斯成熟壮大的国家资本主义制度断绝了受过良好教育的年轻人上升的途径。”
Abi Hardwick
盖兹说，“我们要工作10到20年才能买得起一套公寓，要工作五年才能买得起一辆车。没有升职机会。想要创办自己的企业非常难。每年的贷款利率高达20-30%，整个体制监管得非常严格。最保险的工作是为政府做事，但我已经做过了，不想再做了。”
政治分析家德米特里•欧列希金(Dmitry Oreshkin)4月份发表在俄罗斯独立报纸《新报》(Novaya Gazeta)上的一篇文章捕捉到了中产阶级的这种心态。这篇文章被广泛引用。他在文章中称，俄罗斯正处在又一轮移居国外的浪潮中，这轮浪潮堪比1917年布尔什维克当政后出现的移民潮。
欧列希金称，令人不安的是，打算离开的都是最有能力和最有天赋的人，因为他们感觉俄罗斯总理弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)在过去10年中构建起来的国家资本主义模式令他们没有用武之地。在一项对7,237 名《新报》读者进行的网上调查中，有62.5%的人表示，由于对经济或政治制度感到不满，他们正考虑离开俄罗斯。
莫斯科独立研究机构勒瓦达中心(Levada Center)进行的调查也发现了一个相似的普遍趋势。考虑移居海外的受访者百分比从普京开始当总统时的42%上升至2009年的44%，尽管在这段时期内，人们的生活水平提高了。
在坦承想要离开的人当中，绝大部分是35岁以下的年轻人，居住在大城市，会说一门外语。虽然这些人在俄罗斯的总人口中只占很小的一个百分比，但这样的人口统计学数据代表了这个国家经济、政治和文化的未来。
33岁的政治分析家、曾任执政党统一俄罗斯 竞选经理的格勒伯•库兹涅特索夫(Gleb Kuznetsov)称，移居外国的人越来越多。出现这种现象的原因是国界开放了，而且目前的制度引发了心理疲劳，这种情绪表现为人们不相信当前的制度能够改变或变得更加人性化。没有人再相信光明的前景，反对派不相信，就连为政府工作的人也不相信。
库兹涅特索夫称，在俄罗斯年轻的中产阶级中，人们普遍认为在国外更容易创业并实现自己的抱负。他说，“我的一位朋友是个年轻的商人，他卖掉了位于俄罗斯远东地区的业务，移居委内瑞拉。他认为，在委内瑞拉有更多的发展机会，尽管那里的腐败现象并不比俄罗斯少，但和他的祖国相比，那个社会体系的前景更加可预知，也更加开放。”
媒体控制
据勒瓦达中心称，虽然在2002年人们给出的考虑移民的最常见理由是经济原因，但到了2009年，另一个同样常见的理由是社会文化因素。一些受过良好教育的俄罗斯人感觉，政府控制下的电视新闻、电影甚至流行音乐领域让他们与国际社会脱节。
32岁的娜塔莉娅•罗斯托娃(Natalia Rostova)是Slon.ru网站的媒体记者，还是受人尊敬的俄罗斯媒体评论员。她说，她的许多朋友和记者同行都在考虑离开俄罗斯。她说，“政府控制了电视新闻，这些节目从不批评普京或德米特里•梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)。电视上说西方国家是我们的敌人，普京把国家从过去的独裁专政中解救了出来，大多数俄罗斯人都相信这一点。他们没有意识到新的独裁。很难看到这种局面会出现转变。”
虽然在不积极支持统一俄罗斯党的人当中，有25-30%的人认为国家对媒体的控制是一个让他们厌烦的因素，但促使他们离开的一个更大的诱因是俄罗斯糟糕的生活品质。
Abi Hardwick
经济状况较好的俄罗斯人越来越多地寻求让孩子接受西方教育。达莎(Dasha)在伦敦经营一家为俄罗斯孩子上西方私校做准备的家教公司。她说，让孩子在西方接受教育过去只是一种时髦，如今则被认为是一种必需。俄罗斯的教育体系已接近崩溃的边缘。从入学名额到大学文凭，什么都可以用钱来买。但是，富裕的俄罗斯人认为，他们有责任地给孩子提供在海外生活和工作的选择，尤其是在2008-2009年的经济危机之后。
令雄心勃勃的俄罗斯年轻人感到厌烦的另一个因素是：在俄罗斯，财产所有权没有保障。伦敦有很多这样的俄罗斯商人：当他们自己或他们的政治庇护人不受政府欢迎时，他们不得不立马搭乘英国航空(British Airways)的航班来到了英国。
富而德律师事务所(Freshfields)驻莫斯科的合伙人塞巴斯蒂安•劳森(Sebastian Lawson)说，“俄罗斯政界和企业界的关系依然紧张。如果你不受政府欢迎或者失去了政治庇护，你就必须马上离开，这可能使你失去自己的企业。”国有银行的作用增大也加剧了政府接管的风险。劳森说，“经济危机使国有银行具备了更重大、更有政治色彩的作用。他们是最大的贷款人，如果他们认定你违反了贷款协议，就能接管你的企业。”
改革政府
不过，克林姆林宫也已经意识到了促使该国受过良好教育的精英移民外国的众多问题。一些改革家似乎在努力创建一种减少政府控制、更加企业化的经济。梅德韦杰夫努力将自己定位成受过良好教育的中产阶级的代表，并在4月份发表讲话，提出了一个使经济现代化以及削弱政府作用的大胆路线。俄罗斯历史最悠久、投资最成功的基金管理公司East Capital的首席经济师马库斯•斯维德伯格(Marcus Svedberg)称，“令人感兴趣的是，这项计划是有一个时间表的。他说他想削减在国有企业董事会中任职的政府官员数量。几天之内，[由安全情报人员组成的’“西罗维琪”(Siloviki)强力集团最有影响力的人物之一伊格尔•谢钦(Igor Sechin)就从俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)董事会卸任了。俄罗斯的变化非常缓慢，但我认为变化确实在发生。”
政府还高调创办了斯科尔科沃(Skolkovo)商学院，减少了对经济领域的监管，希望通过这些举动来培养新的企业家，吸引已经流失到国外的人才。盖兹说，“我明白当局开办斯科尔科沃商学院的主要目的是为了说服企业家和IT精英不要离开俄罗斯。”
接受《华尔街日报欧洲版》(Wall Street Journal Europe)采访的很多受过良好教育的俄罗斯年轻人表示，无论谁在2012年当选俄罗斯总统，统治俄罗斯的还会是同一小撮政客和安全情报官员。库兹涅特索夫称，“这是政府面临的主要挑战。身居高位十多年的人是否愿意让贤？或者我们是否会重组一个勃列日涅夫(Brezhnev)式的老人政府？到下一个总统任期届满时，普京就要65岁了，掌权时间长达20年。这届政权中所有重要人物的年龄都在50岁以上。如果普京不改变这种任用心腹精英的政策，那么2018年的俄罗斯将非常类似2011年的突尼斯或埃及。”
JULIAN EVANS
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
Konstantin Gaaze is a bright young Russian. The 30-year-old is the political editor of Moskovskie Novosti, a leading daily newspaper, and was previously an adviser to the minister of health. He is a political insider who should have a bright future ahead of him in Russia's booming economy. Instead, Mr. Gaaze is preparing to leave.
'I'm thinking about moving to Israel,' he says. 'It's a question of economic opportunities. The system of state capitalism that has grown up here exterminates the social elevator for young educated people.'
Unfortunately, Mr. Gaaze's story is far from unique. More and more young, educated Russians are talking about leaving Russia, to live in the U.S., Europe, Israel, Asia, or Latin America. The reasons are myriad: Whether it is the difficulty of setting up a business in Russia, the dearth of political freedoms, poor education or simply better jobs abroad, Russia's talent exodus is gaining momentum.
'We're expected to work 10 to 20 years to buy a flat, or five years to buy a car,' says Mr. Gaaze. 'There are no chances for promotion. It's very hard to set up your own business. Loans cost 20% to 30% a year, and the system is very regulated. The most secure job is to work for the government. But I've done that, and don't want to do it anymore.'
The political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin caught the mood among the middle classes with a widely-quoted story in independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta in April. He claimed Russia was in the middle of another wave of emigration to rival that which occurred after the Bolsheviks came to power in 1917.
What is disturbing, according to Mr. Oreshkin, is that it is the 'strongest and most gifted people' who are leaving Russia, because they feel they have no place in the state capitalist model constructed by prime minister Vladimir Putin over the last decade. In an online poll of 7,237 Novaya Gazeta readers, 62.5% said they were considering leaving because of discontent with the economic and political regime.
Surveys by the Levada Center, an independent research institute in Moscow, find a similar broad trend. The percentage of respondents who were thinking about living abroad rose from 42% at the beginning of Mr. Putin's presidency to 44% in 2009, despite the rise in living standards during that period.
The vast majority of those who admitted wanting to leave were under 35 years old, lived in a major city, and spoke a foreign language. While only making up a small percentage of Russia's total population, this demographic also represents the country's economic, political and cultural future.
'Emigration is growing,' says Gleb Kuznetsov, a 33-year-old political analyst and former campaign manager for ruling party United Russia. 'The reason for it is open borders and psychological fatigue caused by the state, which is expressed in disbelief that the system is able to change and become more human. No one believes in the 'bright future' anymore, not the opposition, or even people working for the state.'
Mr. Kuznetsov says that it is widely believed, among Russia's young middle-class, that it is easier to establish a business and realize their ambitions abroad. 'My friend, a young businessman, sold his business in the Russian Far East and moved to Venezuela. In his opinion, there are more opportunities to develop there, and the system, although no less corrupt, is more predictable and open than in his motherland.'
Media Control
According to the Levada Center, while the most common reason people gave for considering emigration in 2002 was financial, by 2009, just as common a reason for leaving was socio-cultural. Some educated Russians feel alienated, for example, by the state's control of television news, film, even the pop music scene.
Natalia Rostova is the 32-year-old media correspondent at Slon.ru and a respected commentator on Russian media. She says that many of her friends and fellow journalists are thinking of leaving: 'The state controls the television news, which never criticizes Putin or [Dmitry] Medvedev. Most Russians believe it when the television says the West is our enemy, and that Putin saved Russia from the old oligarchs. They don't know about the new oligarchs. It's hard to see how things will change.'
While the state's control of the media is a turn-off for the 25% to 30% of the population who don't actively support United Russia, a bigger incentive to leave is the poor quality of life in Russia.
'It costs so much to set up a business here, and takes so much effort, compared to abroad,' says Mr. Gaaze. 'And family life is harder here. The healthcare system has been ruined. It's very difficult to find a place in schools or nurseries. People are waiting for months in Moscow.'
Better-off Russians are increasingly looking to western education for their children. 'Educating your children in the West used to be a fashion', says Dasha, who runs a tutoring agency in London that prepares Russian children for Western private schools. 'Now it's seen as a necessity. The Russian education system is close to collapse. Everything can be bought, from school places to university degrees. But, particularly after the economic crisis of 2008-2009, rich Russians see it as their duty to give their children the option of living and working abroad.'
Another turn-off for ambitious young Russians is the insecurity of property rights in Russia. London is full of Russian business people who had to jump on the next British Airways flight when they or their political patron fell out of favor with the state.
'The relationship between the political class and the entrepreneurial class remains uneasy', says Sebastian Lawson, Moscow-based corporate partner of law firm Freshfields. 'If you get out of favor or lose your political patronage, you have to leave quickly and could lose your business.' The rising role of state-owned banks also increases the risk of a state takeover, says Mr. Lawson: 'The economic crisis led to a bigger and more political role for state-owned banks. They are the biggest lenders, and if they decide you've broken your loan covenant, they can take your business.'
Reforming State
The Kremlin, however, is aware of many of the problems that are encouraging the country's educated young elite to abandon ship. Some reformers appear to be trying to create a less state-controlled and more entrepreneurial economy. Mr. Medvedev has tried to position himself as the representative of the educated middle-classes, and made a speech in April that outlined a bold course for modernizing the economy and reducing the role of the state within it. 'What was interesting is that the program had a timetable,' says Marcus Svedberg, chief economist at East Capital, the oldest and most successful fund manager investing in Russia. 'He said he wanted to cut down the number of state bureaucrats on the board of state companies, and within a few days, Igor Sechin, one of the most powerful of the Siloviki [members of the security services] had stepped down from the board of Rosneft. Things change slowly in Russia, but I think they are changing.'
The government also launched a high profile business school and deregulated economic zone, called Skolkovo, to raise new entrepreneurs and attract back those who have already left the country. 'I understand that the main aim of Skolkovo is to persuade entrepreneurs and IT specialists not to leave Russia,' says Mr. Gaaze.
Whoever becomes president in 2012, the same small group of politicians and security service officers will still be running Russia, according to many of the young, educated Russians interviewed by the Wall Street Journal Europe. 'This is the key challenge for the government,' says Mr. Kuznetsov. 'Will people who have been holding their positions for a dozen years be able to open access for others, or will we reproduce the Brezhnev model of gerontocracy? By the end of the next presidential term, Putin will be 65, and will have been in power for 20 years. All the key figures of the regime will be over 50. If nothing changes in the staff policy of Putin's elite, then the closest comparison for Russia in 2018 will be Tunisia or Egypt in 2011.'
Mr. Evans is a freelance journalist and former Moscow business correspondent for the Times. He can be reached at reports@wsj.com
JULIAN EVANS
'I'm thinking about moving to Israel,' he says. 'It's a question of economic opportunities. The system of state capitalism that has grown up here exterminates the social elevator for young educated people.'
Unfortunately, Mr. Gaaze's story is far from unique. More and more young, educated Russians are talking about leaving Russia, to live in the U.S., Europe, Israel, Asia, or Latin America. The reasons are myriad: Whether it is the difficulty of setting up a business in Russia, the dearth of political freedoms, poor education or simply better jobs abroad, Russia's talent exodus is gaining momentum.
'We're expected to work 10 to 20 years to buy a flat, or five years to buy a car,' says Mr. Gaaze. 'There are no chances for promotion. It's very hard to set up your own business. Loans cost 20% to 30% a year, and the system is very regulated. The most secure job is to work for the government. But I've done that, and don't want to do it anymore.'
The political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin caught the mood among the middle classes with a widely-quoted story in independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta in April. He claimed Russia was in the middle of another wave of emigration to rival that which occurred after the Bolsheviks came to power in 1917.
What is disturbing, according to Mr. Oreshkin, is that it is the 'strongest and most gifted people' who are leaving Russia, because they feel they have no place in the state capitalist model constructed by prime minister Vladimir Putin over the last decade. In an online poll of 7,237 Novaya Gazeta readers, 62.5% said they were considering leaving because of discontent with the economic and political regime.
Surveys by the Levada Center, an independent research institute in Moscow, find a similar broad trend. The percentage of respondents who were thinking about living abroad rose from 42% at the beginning of Mr. Putin's presidency to 44% in 2009, despite the rise in living standards during that period.
The vast majority of those who admitted wanting to leave were under 35 years old, lived in a major city, and spoke a foreign language. While only making up a small percentage of Russia's total population, this demographic also represents the country's economic, political and cultural future.
'Emigration is growing,' says Gleb Kuznetsov, a 33-year-old political analyst and former campaign manager for ruling party United Russia. 'The reason for it is open borders and psychological fatigue caused by the state, which is expressed in disbelief that the system is able to change and become more human. No one believes in the 'bright future' anymore, not the opposition, or even people working for the state.'
Mr. Kuznetsov says that it is widely believed, among Russia's young middle-class, that it is easier to establish a business and realize their ambitions abroad. 'My friend, a young businessman, sold his business in the Russian Far East and moved to Venezuela. In his opinion, there are more opportunities to develop there, and the system, although no less corrupt, is more predictable and open than in his motherland.'
Media Control
According to the Levada Center, while the most common reason people gave for considering emigration in 2002 was financial, by 2009, just as common a reason for leaving was socio-cultural. Some educated Russians feel alienated, for example, by the state's control of television news, film, even the pop music scene.
Natalia Rostova is the 32-year-old media correspondent at Slon.ru and a respected commentator on Russian media. She says that many of her friends and fellow journalists are thinking of leaving: 'The state controls the television news, which never criticizes Putin or [Dmitry] Medvedev. Most Russians believe it when the television says the West is our enemy, and that Putin saved Russia from the old oligarchs. They don't know about the new oligarchs. It's hard to see how things will change.'
While the state's control of the media is a turn-off for the 25% to 30% of the population who don't actively support United Russia, a bigger incentive to leave is the poor quality of life in Russia.
'It costs so much to set up a business here, and takes so much effort, compared to abroad,' says Mr. Gaaze. 'And family life is harder here. The healthcare system has been ruined. It's very difficult to find a place in schools or nurseries. People are waiting for months in Moscow.'
Better-off Russians are increasingly looking to western education for their children. 'Educating your children in the West used to be a fashion', says Dasha, who runs a tutoring agency in London that prepares Russian children for Western private schools. 'Now it's seen as a necessity. The Russian education system is close to collapse. Everything can be bought, from school places to university degrees. But, particularly after the economic crisis of 2008-2009, rich Russians see it as their duty to give their children the option of living and working abroad.'
Another turn-off for ambitious young Russians is the insecurity of property rights in Russia. London is full of Russian business people who had to jump on the next British Airways flight when they or their political patron fell out of favor with the state.
'The relationship between the political class and the entrepreneurial class remains uneasy', says Sebastian Lawson, Moscow-based corporate partner of law firm Freshfields. 'If you get out of favor or lose your political patronage, you have to leave quickly and could lose your business.' The rising role of state-owned banks also increases the risk of a state takeover, says Mr. Lawson: 'The economic crisis led to a bigger and more political role for state-owned banks. They are the biggest lenders, and if they decide you've broken your loan covenant, they can take your business.'
Reforming State
The Kremlin, however, is aware of many of the problems that are encouraging the country's educated young elite to abandon ship. Some reformers appear to be trying to create a less state-controlled and more entrepreneurial economy. Mr. Medvedev has tried to position himself as the representative of the educated middle-classes, and made a speech in April that outlined a bold course for modernizing the economy and reducing the role of the state within it. 'What was interesting is that the program had a timetable,' says Marcus Svedberg, chief economist at East Capital, the oldest and most successful fund manager investing in Russia. 'He said he wanted to cut down the number of state bureaucrats on the board of state companies, and within a few days, Igor Sechin, one of the most powerful of the Siloviki [members of the security services] had stepped down from the board of Rosneft. Things change slowly in Russia, but I think they are changing.'
The government also launched a high profile business school and deregulated economic zone, called Skolkovo, to raise new entrepreneurs and attract back those who have already left the country. 'I understand that the main aim of Skolkovo is to persuade entrepreneurs and IT specialists not to leave Russia,' says Mr. Gaaze.
Whoever becomes president in 2012, the same small group of politicians and security service officers will still be running Russia, according to many of the young, educated Russians interviewed by the Wall Street Journal Europe. 'This is the key challenge for the government,' says Mr. Kuznetsov. 'Will people who have been holding their positions for a dozen years be able to open access for others, or will we reproduce the Brezhnev model of gerontocracy? By the end of the next presidential term, Putin will be 65, and will have been in power for 20 years. All the key figures of the regime will be over 50. If nothing changes in the staff policy of Putin's elite, then the closest comparison for Russia in 2018 will be Tunisia or Egypt in 2011.'
Mr. Evans is a freelance journalist and former Moscow business correspondent for the Times. He can be reached at reports@wsj.com
JULIAN EVANS
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