最
新数据显示，中国在2009年取代德国成为了全球第一商品出口大国，令其他贸易大国受创更深的全球经济危机对中国此番登顶起到了推波助澜的作用。由总部设在日内瓦的世界贸易信息服务股份公司(Global Trade Information Services)提供的海关统计数据显示，去年前10个月中国共出口了价值9,570亿美元的货品，超过德国的9,170亿美元。贸易问题专家称，11、12月两月的贸易情况不可能扭转中国的领先局面。中国可能会在下周发布去年全年的贸易数据。
在过去10年里，中国在正常情况下每年出口增幅都会超过20%，它成为全球最大出口国早已在人们的普遍意料之中。
中国在2007年超越德国成为了全球第三大经济体，并且有望很快超过日本成为仅次于美国的全球第二大经济强国。
达特茅斯学院(Dartmouth College)教授道格拉斯•厄尔文(Douglas Irwin)说，中国在各个领域的增长速度都比德国快得多，中国有13亿人口，而德国只有8,300万人。
本次金融危机加速了中国上位，因为它受到的影响小于其他大型经济体。由于全球贸易受到了严重冲击，中国在去年前10个月中出口减少了20.4%，而德国和美国的出口降幅分别达到了27.37%和21.4%。这组贸易数据并未包括服务出口，发达国家在服务方面见长，而它恰恰是中国的弱项。
德国在2009年的出口下降格外明显，因为德国的出口集中于机械及其他资本财货，它们受到了全球工业投资支出紧缩的沉重打击。而全球消费支出缩水幅度小于企业投资降幅，因此相对于出口高端设备的德国而言，出口低端消费品的中国受到影响较小。
广州皮具制品出口商金圣斯国际(Kingsons International)的首席执行长黄辉古说，许多中国出口到全球市场的商品都是生活必需品。
人民币汇率钉住疲软的美元，确保了中国出口商品的价格竞争力。这些因素帮助中国商品去年在美国、欧洲和日本市场扩大了市场份额。
强劲的出口数据并不一定意味着经济的全面成功。许多经济学家的都指责德国和中国太过关注出口数据，而在促进内需持续增长、提高生活水平方面投入少得可 。
印第安那大学(Indiana University)中国问题专家、政治学者斯科特•肯尼迪(Scott Kennedy)说，中国的出口实力并不意味着中国公司自身有多么重要和强大。
许多中国的出口商都只是生产由其他公司设计、营销的商品，自己的收入却相对微薄。
对德国而言，中国的崛起既是机遇也是挑战。德国出口商协会(German Exporters Association)贸易专家纳格尔(Jens Nagel)说，中国是我们最大的竞争对手，也是我们最具活力的市场。
许多德国公司都说他们对中国和其他新兴经济体的出口又一次出现了快速增长，但在德国最大的出口市场──美国和其他欧洲国家中，销售即便有所复苏，也相对迟缓。
德国工商会(German Chamber of Industry and Commerce)经济学家施罗特博勒(Dirk Schlotboeller)说，事实上，中国工厂出口得越多，就越需要产自德国的资本财货。
他说，如果中国快速增长并成为全球出口第一大国，那么这对德国经济而言只有好处没有坏处。
许多经济学家指出，德国经济的主要问题不在于他们出口太少，而是国内消费者支出不足，牵制了本土服务领域的发展。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)驻伦敦经济学家巴尔彻(Elga Bartsch)说，服务领域在创造就业方面比出口行业更为重要，后者的资本密集度往往非常高。
John W. Miller / Marcus Walker
China took over the mantle of the world's top merchandise exporter from Germany in 2009, according to the latest figures, aided by a global economic crisis that has taken a greater toll on other trading powers.
China exported $957 billion of goods in the first 10 months of 2009, compared with $917 billion for Germany, according to customs data compiled by Global Trade Information Services, a Geneva-based firm.
No changes in November or December are expected to overturn the Chinese lead, trade experts say. China is likely to publish trade figures for the full year next week.
China's claiming of the title of world's largest exporter was widely expected, with annual growth in its exports regularly exceeding 20% during the past decade.
China in 2007 overtook Germany as the world's third-largest national economy, and is on track to soon surpass Japan to become the second-largest economy after the U.S.
'China has been growing much more rapidly than Germany on all sorts of dimensions and has a population of 1.3 billion, while Germany has 83 million,' said Douglas Irwin, a professor at Dartmouth College.
China's ascendancy has been accelerated by the international financial crisis, from which it has suffered less than other major economies.
With trade in tatters around the world, Chinese exports fell 20.4% during the first 10 months of 2009, compared with 27.4% for Germany and 21.4% for the U.S. The trade figures don't include transactions in services, which are significant in developed economies but a weak point for China.
Germany suffered a particularly heavy drop in 2009 exports because of its concentration in machinery and other capital goods, which were hit by a slump in investment spending by industries world-wide. Global consumer spending fell by less than corporate investment, benefiting China's exports of low-cost consumer goods relative to Germany's high-end equipment.
'Most of the products China produces for the global market are life necessities,' says Huang Huiguo, chief executive of Kingsons International, a Guangzhou-based exporter of leather bags.
China's currency, the yuan, is tied to the sinking dollar, helping to keep the country's exports competitive on price. Those factors helped Chinese goods gain market share in the U.S., Europe and Japan last year.
High export volumes don't necessarily translate into overall economic success.
Many economists criticize both Germany and China for focusing too much on export volumes, and doing too little to promote sustained growth in domestic demand and improve living standards.
The size of China's total exports 'is not speaking to how important and powerful Chinese companies are on their own,' says Scott Kennedy, a China expert and political scientist at Indiana University.
Many of China's exporters earn relatively slim profits churning out goods designed and marketed by other companies.
For Germany, the rise of China has brought opportunities as well as challenges.
The country is 'our biggest competitor but also our most dynamic market,' says Jens Nagel, a trade expert with the German Exporters Association.
Many German companies say their exports to China and other emerging economies are buoyant again, but that sales to the U.S. and other European countries -- which are Germany's biggest market -- are recovering more slowly, if at all.
In fact, by exporting more, Chinese factories need more of the capital goods that Germany produces, said Dirk Schlotboeller, economist at the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce.
'If China grows very fast and gets the championship in exports, it's only good for the German economy,' Dr. Schlotboeller added.
Germany's primary economic problem isn't that they country exports too little, but that its own consumers don't spend enough, which holds back its domestic service sectors, many economists say.
'Service sectors are more important for jobs than export industries, which tend to be very capital-intensive,' says Elga Bartsch, an economist at Morgan Stanley in London.
John W. Miller / Marcus Walker
China exported $957 billion of goods in the first 10 months of 2009, compared with $917 billion for Germany, according to customs data compiled by Global Trade Information Services, a Geneva-based firm.
No changes in November or December are expected to overturn the Chinese lead, trade experts say. China is likely to publish trade figures for the full year next week.
China's claiming of the title of world's largest exporter was widely expected, with annual growth in its exports regularly exceeding 20% during the past decade.
China in 2007 overtook Germany as the world's third-largest national economy, and is on track to soon surpass Japan to become the second-largest economy after the U.S.
'China has been growing much more rapidly than Germany on all sorts of dimensions and has a population of 1.3 billion, while Germany has 83 million,' said Douglas Irwin, a professor at Dartmouth College.
China's ascendancy has been accelerated by the international financial crisis, from which it has suffered less than other major economies.
With trade in tatters around the world, Chinese exports fell 20.4% during the first 10 months of 2009, compared with 27.4% for Germany and 21.4% for the U.S. The trade figures don't include transactions in services, which are significant in developed economies but a weak point for China.
Germany suffered a particularly heavy drop in 2009 exports because of its concentration in machinery and other capital goods, which were hit by a slump in investment spending by industries world-wide. Global consumer spending fell by less than corporate investment, benefiting China's exports of low-cost consumer goods relative to Germany's high-end equipment.
'Most of the products China produces for the global market are life necessities,' says Huang Huiguo, chief executive of Kingsons International, a Guangzhou-based exporter of leather bags.
China's currency, the yuan, is tied to the sinking dollar, helping to keep the country's exports competitive on price. Those factors helped Chinese goods gain market share in the U.S., Europe and Japan last year.
High export volumes don't necessarily translate into overall economic success.
Many economists criticize both Germany and China for focusing too much on export volumes, and doing too little to promote sustained growth in domestic demand and improve living standards.
The size of China's total exports 'is not speaking to how important and powerful Chinese companies are on their own,' says Scott Kennedy, a China expert and political scientist at Indiana University.
Many of China's exporters earn relatively slim profits churning out goods designed and marketed by other companies.
For Germany, the rise of China has brought opportunities as well as challenges.
The country is 'our biggest competitor but also our most dynamic market,' says Jens Nagel, a trade expert with the German Exporters Association.
Many German companies say their exports to China and other emerging economies are buoyant again, but that sales to the U.S. and other European countries -- which are Germany's biggest market -- are recovering more slowly, if at all.
In fact, by exporting more, Chinese factories need more of the capital goods that Germany produces, said Dirk Schlotboeller, economist at the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce.
'If China grows very fast and gets the championship in exports, it's only good for the German economy,' Dr. Schlotboeller added.
Germany's primary economic problem isn't that they country exports too little, but that its own consumers don't spend enough, which holds back its domestic service sectors, many economists say.
'Service sectors are more important for jobs than export industries, which tend to be very capital-intensive,' says Elga Bartsch, an economist at Morgan Stanley in London.
John W. Miller / Marcus Walker
没有评论:
发表评论