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很多标准衡量，巴菲特(Warren Buffett)都在此次金融危机中损失不大。他旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)资产负债状况并没有遭受严重打击。巴菲特利用自己庞大的现金储备四处搜寻"物美价廉"的好买卖，包括斥资50亿美元买了高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group)的优先股。自巴菲特投资高盛以来，他买进的优先股已经飙升了约50%。
不过，2008年伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票随整体股市一起暴跌，今年以来也只是涨了4%而已；相比之下，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数涨了12%。
为什么会有这样的差距呢？分析人士难以说出眼下有什么值得担忧的事造成这种局面，不过一个日益显露出来的问题却是伯克希尔哈撒韦的领导人计划。8月份过了79岁生日的巴菲特仍牢牢地掌控着业务多样、不断扩张的伯克希尔哈撒韦。他一直对自己的接班人计划保密，投资者可能会担心接下来会发生什么事情。
考虑到这一点，Stifel Nicolaus的分析师谢尔茨(Meyer Shields)上周对伯克希尔哈撒韦的首次评级为"持有"。他认为，"巴菲特溢价"──巴菲特带给公司的无形资产，包括他在那些寻求获得投资的公司中的"救命稻草"地位──对该公司股票的影响将会减退。
谢尔茨写道，巴菲特的知识和能力是可以取代的，不过由于他的标志性地位是不可取代的，伯克希尔哈撒韦未来投资机会的经济吸引力将可能会下滑。
投资者最近更专注于高度动荡的股票，比如银行类股。金融类股占很大比重的标准普尔500指数今年以来上涨18%。小型股罗素2000指数涨了22%。依一些标准衡量，伯克希尔哈撒韦目前是个买进的好对象。研究公司Langen McAlenney的分析师霍华德(Paul Howard)估计，该公司的市净率约为1.35。相比之下，1996年以来的平均市净率为1.6。
最终，高风险股票带来的上涨将退去。霍华德说，这一时刻到来时，寻找更好交易的投资者很可能将倾向于伯克希尔哈撒韦这样更稳当的价值股。
不过，投资者的乐观情绪将取决于他们对"后巴菲特时代"伯克希尔哈撒韦的信心。
Scott Patterson
By many measures, Warren Buffett had a good financial crisis.
The balance sheet of his conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway, didn't suffer major blows. Mr. Buffett used his vast cash stockpile to scoop up bargains, including a $5 billion investment in Goldman Sachs Group preferred shares. Their value has soared this year as Goldman's stock has risen about 50% since his investment.
But Berkshire's shares tumbled in 2008 with the rest of the market, and are up just 4% this year compared with a 12% gain by the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Why the lag? Analysts struggle to pinpoint an immediate concern, but one that is looming larger is the leadership plan. Mr. Buffett turned 79 years old in August and continues to hold an iron grip on Berkshire, a sprawling empire of diverse companies. He has kept his succession plans close to the vest, and investors may be worried about what comes next.
Meyer Shields, an analyst with Stifel Nicolaus, focused partly on this issue when he initiated coverage of Berkshire last week with a 'hold' rating. He thinks the Buffett Premium -- the intangible assets Mr. Buffett brings to the company, including his go-to status for companies seeking an investment -- will fade from the stock.
'Buffett's knowledge and skills are replaceable,' he wrote, 'but since his iconic status isn't, the economic attractiveness of Berkshire's future investment opportunities will likely decline.'
Investors lately are more focused on highly volatile sectors, such as bank stocks. The S&P 500-stock index, heavy with financials, is up 18% this year. The Russell 2000 index of small companies is up 22%. By some measures, Berkshire is now a deal. Its price-to-book ratio, the stock price of the company divided by the total value of its balance sheet, is about 1.35, according to estimates by Paul Howard, an analyst at research firm Langen McAlenney. That compares with an average annual ratio of 1.6 going back to 1996.
Eventually, the risky-stock rally will fade. When it does, investors seeking better deals likely will gravitate to more-plodding value stocks such as Berkshire, said Mr. Howard.
But their enthusiasm will depend on their confidence in Berkshire after Buffett.
Scott Patterson
The balance sheet of his conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway, didn't suffer major blows. Mr. Buffett used his vast cash stockpile to scoop up bargains, including a $5 billion investment in Goldman Sachs Group preferred shares. Their value has soared this year as Goldman's stock has risen about 50% since his investment.
But Berkshire's shares tumbled in 2008 with the rest of the market, and are up just 4% this year compared with a 12% gain by the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Why the lag? Analysts struggle to pinpoint an immediate concern, but one that is looming larger is the leadership plan. Mr. Buffett turned 79 years old in August and continues to hold an iron grip on Berkshire, a sprawling empire of diverse companies. He has kept his succession plans close to the vest, and investors may be worried about what comes next.
Meyer Shields, an analyst with Stifel Nicolaus, focused partly on this issue when he initiated coverage of Berkshire last week with a 'hold' rating. He thinks the Buffett Premium -- the intangible assets Mr. Buffett brings to the company, including his go-to status for companies seeking an investment -- will fade from the stock.
'Buffett's knowledge and skills are replaceable,' he wrote, 'but since his iconic status isn't, the economic attractiveness of Berkshire's future investment opportunities will likely decline.'
Investors lately are more focused on highly volatile sectors, such as bank stocks. The S&P 500-stock index, heavy with financials, is up 18% this year. The Russell 2000 index of small companies is up 22%. By some measures, Berkshire is now a deal. Its price-to-book ratio, the stock price of the company divided by the total value of its balance sheet, is about 1.35, according to estimates by Paul Howard, an analyst at research firm Langen McAlenney. That compares with an average annual ratio of 1.6 going back to 1996.
Eventually, the risky-stock rally will fade. When it does, investors seeking better deals likely will gravitate to more-plodding value stocks such as Berkshire, said Mr. Howard.
But their enthusiasm will depend on their confidence in Berkshire after Buffett.
Scott Patterson
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