就在美国和俄罗斯这两个全球最大核武器国家通过达成削减军备协议，为全球重新审议《不扩散核武器条约》搭建舞台之际，作为全球第三大核武器国的中国，却保持了低调。
自从1992年签订这个全球最主要的限制核武器扩散条约以来，中国一直在这个领域加强着与另外四个公认核大国的合作。但是，尽管该条约的签署国联合承诺削减军备，中国却一直在逐步升级其军备。对本月正在纽约进行的《不扩散核武器条约》第八次审议大会，中国颇感担忧，生怕会上的辩论会将矛头对准自己。
“尽管美国和俄罗斯部署的核武器数量是中国的20至30倍，而在道德讨论中中国也处于有利地位，但中国大概是目前唯一还在进行（核武）现代化的国家。” 斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所(Stockholm International Peace Research Institute)所长贝茨•吉尔(Bates Gill)说。
他表示，中国自上世纪90年代中期以来一直在拖延裁军，但全球范围内有关军备控制、裁军以及防核武器扩散的行动，将迫使北京就裁军作出决定。
“已经有人在说，中国不裁军，裁军就是空谈。在未来三到五年间，如果美国和俄罗斯继续就裁军进行讨论，总有一刻中国将需要作出某种表态。”
中国并不喜欢这种说法。
“我们的核弹头都没有安装触发器。这意味着，如果你采用美国和俄罗斯使用的计算方式来清点我们的军备库，我们的核武器数量应该为零。”北京的清华大学(Tsinghua University)军控与核不扩散专家李彬(Li Bin)表示，“你不可能从零再往下减。”
然而，中国并非对裁军一概拒绝。“两个拥有最大核武库的国家对核裁军负有特殊的、主要的责任，”中国2009年1月发布的国防白皮书中写道。“（它们）应……以可核查、不可逆的方式进一步大幅度削减其核武库，为其它核武器国家参与核裁军进程创造必要条件。”
一些国家抱怨中国在核武器方面的姿态不够透明，原因是中国没有透露过其武器数量，而只表示其导弹力量保持在“备用的合理水平”。
美国曾尝试与负责管理核武器的中国人民解放军第二炮兵部队(Second Artillery Force)展开对话，但只取得了有限的成功。二炮司令员靖志远(Jing Zhiyuan)上将至今尚未兑现五年前承诺的访美之行。
中国核弹头的数量被认为基本稳定，据别国预测，数量在100至200枚间。通过掩盖核弹头的数量，北京避免了被拽入军备竞赛。美国上周公布，截至2009年9月30日，它拥有5113枚核弹头。
“（中国的）核战略主要建立在模糊与不透明上。由于其核武规模较小，这种战略非常关键。他们对维持这种战略也相当固执。”卡内基国际和平基金会(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)研究中国核策略的研究员司乐如(Lora Saalman)表示。
与此同时，中国人民解放军正在对武器运载系统进行现代化升级。
“自2000年以来，中国已经从基于固定地点发射的、液态燃料洲际弹道导弹的较为脆弱的核力量，发展成生存力更强、更为灵活的核战略力量。”美国国防部在2009年中国军力年度报告中写道。
由于中国开始拥有可搭载核弹头的新型潜艇，外国防御专家表示，北京有关其战略武器没有安装触发器的说法，在可信度上打了折扣。
一些专家表示，任何在这一问题上强迫中国作出改变的尝试，都肯定会失败。然而，此次《不扩散核武器条约》审议大会，也许会成为中国在军控方面扮演更为积极角色的一个起点。
比如，一种方式是，通过国际化使裂变物质的存储更为安全。北京方面对此也表示了兴趣。
译者/麦可林
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032606
While the US and Russia, the world’s two leading nuclear powers, set the stage for the global review of the main treaty on limiting the spread of nuclear weapons by announcing a pact to cut their arsenals, China, the number three power, kept a low profile.Since signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1992, China has increasingly cooperated with non-proliferation efforts among the five recognised nuclear powers but despite the treaty’s joint commitment to disarmament, China is gradually upgrading its missiles and has been wary of signs that debate at the review conference underway in New York might turn on them.“Although the US and Russia have some 20 to 30 times more nuclear weapons deployed than China and the Chinese have the moral argument on their side for now, China is probably the only country undertaking modernisation,” says Bates Gill, head of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.He argues that the international arms control, disarmament and proliferation agenda will force Beijing to make disarmament decisions it has postponed since the mid-1990s.“Already there are voices saying that disarmament can’t occur without China disarming. At some point in the next three to five years, if and when the US and Russia continue to talk disarmament, some sign from China is going to be needed.”China resents that notion.“Our warheads are not on trigger. That means if you count our arsenal according to the counting methods used by the US and Russia, the number of our nuclear arms is zero,” says Li Bin, an arms control and non-proliferation expert at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “You can’t make reductions from zero.”China, however, does not reject disarmament altogether. “The two countries possessing the largest nuclear arsenals bear special and primary responsibility for nuclear disarmament,” China said in its White Paper on National Defense, published in January 2009. “They should … further drastically reduce their nuclear arsenals in a verifiable and irreversible manner, so as to create the necessary conditions for the participation of other nuclear-weapon states in the process of nuclear disarmament.”Some countries have complained that China’s nuclear posture lacks transparency since Beijing has not disclosed how many weapons it has, simply saying that its missile forces are kept “at an appropriate level of readiness”.US attempts at dialogue with the Second Artillery Force, the group in charge of the People’s Liberation Army’s nuclear forces, have only had limited success. General Jing Zhiyuan, commander of the PLA’s Second Artillery Force, has yet to make a visit to the US that was promised five years ago.The number of Chinese nuclear warheads is believed to be largely stable, with foreign estimates ranging from 100 to more than 200. Keeping the number under wraps is Beijing’s way of avoiding being drawn into a weapons race. The US last week revealed it had 5,113 warheads as of September 30 2009.“[China’s] nuclear strategy is largely based on ambiguity and opaqueness. This is crucial given the small size of their arsenal, and they are pretty adamant about not changing that,” says Lora Saalman, a researcher working on Chinese nuclear strategy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Beijing.Meanwhile, the PLA is modernising its weapons delivery systems.“Since 2000, China has shifted from a largely vulnerable, strategic deterrent based on liquid-fuelled, intercontinental-range ballistic missiles fired from fixed locations to a more survivable and flexible strategic nuclear force,” the US Department of Defense said in its 2009 annual report on China’s military strength.As this includes a new class of submarines designed to carry nuclear warheads, foreign defence experts say Beijing’s argument that its strategic weapons are not on trigger has become less credible.Attempts to push China on any of these issues are bound to fail, experts say. However, the NPT conference could be a start for China to take a more active role in arms control.The idea of making the storage of fissile materials more secure through internationalisation could offer one way in, and Beijing has expressed its interest in the issue.
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