2009年11月12日

环太平洋国家施压中国升值人民币 Pacific Rim Nations Push China On Yuan

国正面临着要求人民币升值的新压力,这些压力来自于环太平洋国家,目前外界越来越担心人民币和美元双双走软可能会给亚洲经济体带来沉重打击。

据道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)周三所见一份结论声明草案显示,包括美国、中国和日本在内的亚太经济合作组织(APEC) 21国财政部长均认同,包括汇率与利率的灵活价格体系是实现全球经济可持续增长的重要因素。

与此同时,美国财政部长盖特纳(Timothy Geithner)周三在东京说,对美国以及美国经济的健康来说,维持强势美元非常重要。盖特纳周四将赴新加坡参加APEC财政部长会议。

盖特纳说,对维护美国经济健康以及全球投资者的信心来说,(强势美元)很重要。尽管盖特纳发表上述言论,但美元兑一篮子主要货币周三仍跌至15个月低点。

预计APEC将在会上呼吁提高汇率灵活性,这被外界普遍视为人民币走高的代称;近日,中国央行在汇率政策的官方措辞上作出了罕见的变化,回应了外界对美元不断走软以及资本流入飙升的担忧情绪。

中国央行在一份季度报告中说,将结合国际资本流动和主要货币走势变化,完善人民币汇率形成机制。

目前还不清楚这一新措辞会如何改变中国央行的汇率政策,目前人民币汇率基本与不断下滑的美元挂钩──这一政策给很多依赖出口的其他亚洲经济体带来了打击。过去这个周末,国际货币基金组织(IMF)说人民币汇率被显著低估。

不过,考虑到汇率问题的敏感性,APEC领导人可能不会在此次新加坡峰会上过多关注这个问题。

日本外务省发言人儿玉和夫(Kazuo Kodama)说,我们都知道归根结底还是人民币汇率问题。

儿玉和夫对记者说,这种谈判应当由美国和中国在幕后悄悄进行。我不认为APEC会议进程能够推高人民币汇率。

美国政府支持强势美元的言论面临着越来越多的怀疑声音,很多亚洲国家央行正定期抛售本币兑美元,以提振美元汇率。

泰国财政部长科恩(Korn Chatikavanij)说,今年以来泰国央行已经购入了大约150亿美元,人民币汇率持续走软可能会迫使亚洲各国央行采取进一步干预举措。

科恩对道琼斯通讯社说,我们实际上正在构筑更高规模的美元储备。我相信,长期来看,美元更可能是会贬值,因此我们是在积累可能会逐步贬值的资产。这种状况并不健康。

他补充说,要矫正现实,你能做的事并不多。现实是,当你拥有诸多债务时,那么从根本上来说,唯一有效的偿债途径就是贬值货币。

2009年财年前3个月,美国预算赤字为4,852亿美元,高于2008财年全年4,550亿美元的预算赤字,是2007财年预算赤字1,610亿美元的三倍。

一些亚洲国家政府正对流入他们货币的投机性资金感到担忧。

台湾金融监管部门周二晚间说,在听取央行的建议后,将禁止境外投资者将资金转为定期存款。

台湾央行外汇局局长林孙源周三称,政府没有实施任何资本管制措施,至少现在还没有。另一位不愿具名的央行高级官员说,一些境外机构投资者已经将异常高规模的资金存入定期存款帐户。林孙源称,海外投资者应该投资股票或债券,因为利用定期存款意味着对新台币进行投机操作。

William Mallard


China is coming under new pressure from Pacific Rim countries to let its currency rise, amid growing concerns about the damage that weakness in both the yuan and dollar could inflict on Asian economies.

The finance ministers of the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group, which includes the U.S., China and Japan, 'agreed that flexible prices, including exchange rates and interest rates' are important to achieving 'sustainable global growth,' according to a draft of their concluding statement seen Wednesday by Dow Jones Newswires.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, speaking in Tokyo on Wednesday before joining APEC finance ministers for their meeting Thursday in Singapore, said 'it's very important for the U.S., and the economic health of the U.S., that we maintain a strong dollar.'

Mr. Geithner cited its importance for the economic health of the U.S. and confidence among 'investors around the world.' Despite his comments, the dollar sagged to a 15-month low against a basket of major currencies Wednesday.

APEC's expected call for currency flexibility, generally viewed as code for a rise in the yuan, comes as China's central bank made a rare change to the official language of its exchange-rate policy, giving a nod to concerns about the declining dollar and surging capital inflows.

The People's Bank of China said in a quarterly report it will take into account 'changes in international capital flows and the trends of major currencies' in exchange-rate policy.

It isn't clear how the new wording might change the bank's policy of essentially pegging the yuan to the sliding dollar -- which hurts the export-reliant economies of many other Asian nations. Over the weekend, the International Monetary Fund said the yuan was 'significantly undervalued.'

However, the sensitivity of the currency issue will probably keep APEC leaders from focusing on it too much at their Singapore summit.

'We all know that boils down to the renminbi's exchange rate,' said Kazuo Kodama, press secretary for Japan's Foreign Ministry, referring to the Chinese currency.

Such discussion 'should be done quietly, behind the scenes, between the U.S. and China,' Mr. Kodama told reporters. 'I don't think [the yuan] will be raised in the APEC process.'

Washington's claims to back a strong dollar are falling on increasingly skeptical ears as many Asian central banks regularly sell their currencies for dollars to prop up the U.S. currency.

Thai Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said his country's central bank has bought about $15 billion so far this year and that the persistent weakness of the Chinese yuan will likely require further intervention by Asian central banks.

'We're building up effectively a greater level of U.S. dollar reserves,' Mr. Korn told Dow Jones. 'I'm convinced that in the long term the dollar is more likely than not to decline in value, so we're building up assets that are declining in value over time. That's not healthy.'

He added, 'There is not much you could do to correct what is reality. The fact is when you've got that much debt . . . the only effective way of repaying that debt is basically devaluing your currency.'

The U.S. budget deficit in the first three months of the fiscal year 2009 was $485.2 billion, exceeding the previous full-year deficit of $455 billion and triple the fiscal 2007 deficit of $161 billion.

Some Asian governments are concerned about the inflow of speculative money into their currencies.

Late Tuesday, Taiwan's financial regulators said it was banning foreign investors from parking funds in time deposits on the recommendation of the central bank.

'We are not imposing any capital controls, at least for now,' Spencer Lin, the head of the central bank's foreign-exchange department said Wednesday. Another senior central-bank official, who declined to be named, said some foreign institutional investors have put unusually large amounts of money in time-deposit accounts. Mr. Lin said foreign investors 'should buy stocks or bonds' instead, as the use of time deposits suggests speculation in the New Taiwan dollar.

William Mallard

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