钻石恒久远？ Why diamonds might not be forever

不妨称之为“钻石峰值”理论。全球最大的钻石生产商南非矿商戴比尔斯(De Beers)宣称，世界上的钻石资源正日渐枯竭，而且其它产品替代它的速度，不足以满足长期需求。许多分析师和交易商对此表示赞同。

这种论点听上去和充满争议的“石油峰值”理论颇为相似。最极端的“石油峰值”理论认为，世界上的石油已经快要用完了。至于钻石，在产量达到峰值水平的确切时间问题上，分析师则存在分歧。

在这样一个富有神话色彩的行业，上述观点颇具吸引力，因为它让人们更关注这种耀眼石头的稀缺性。大举宣扬这种观点，符合各大矿商（尤其是戴比尔斯）的利益，尽管有些评论家认为，这未必属实。

问题是这样的：加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)钻石行业分析师达斯•克拉利尔(Des Kilalea)表示，在1980至1999年期间，全球钻石供应增长了一倍，因为新发现的大型矿山——例如澳大利亚的Argyle和加拿大的戴维克(Diavik)——开始投产。

但自那以后，除了津巴布韦的Marange钻石矿，再没有发现同等规模的新矿。Marange可能成为下一个特大型矿床，前提是津巴布韦的法律与秩序得以恢复。冷战时期，美国及旧时戴比尔斯卡特尔组织持有的钻石储备也已出售殆尽。

戴比尔斯认为，供给将呈现一种“象形曲线”走势——即未来20年的生产规模就像一头大象的背部，逐渐变得越来越小。

但钻石峰值论是可信的。中国等市场需求的增长，会加速世界大型钻石矿的枯竭。戴比尔斯认为，中国市场就是一股新力量，将会加速其位于博茨瓦纳和南非的最大钻矿的衰竭。

戴比尔斯首席执行官加雷斯•彭尼(Gareth Penny)告诉英国《金融时报》：“如果你看看20年前，你会发现，中国不存在购买钻石的文化。但在北京、上海和广州，这种文化已明显启动：这些城市40%的新娘有钻石婚戒。而15年前这一数字为零。”

中国因素是戴比尔斯决定永久减产的原因之一。彭尼表示，从2011年起，公司“新的正常”最高产出将约为每年4000万克拉。而其2008年的产量为4800万克拉，2007年为5100万克拉。其中的部分减产，是由于戴比尔斯2008年出售了一些钻矿。

一些人表示，在戴比尔斯控制钻石市场的体系瓦解十年之后，上述生产策略将有助于该公司影响市场价格。该公司已不再控制市场，但仍是这个多元化市场上最具影响力的参与者——其销售额占到了全球原钻销售的40%左右。

钻石行业专家查姆•伊文-左哈(Chaim Even-Zohar)表示：“（戴比尔斯）真的曾经放弃过它的老套路吗？显然没有。”他指的是该公司试图通过销售或客户合约影响价格的那种冲动。“但我认为，保留存货，以便今后有更多东西可卖，并没有什么不对。”

在戴比尔斯提出新策略（产量水平只是其中的一部分）之前，钻石行业经历了一轮低迷，而该公司所受的冲击尤为巨大。去年，戴比尔斯将产量削减了一半，年产量仅为2400万克拉。公司出现了7.43亿美元的净亏损，并向股东寻求了10亿美元的注资。

但钻石需求正逐渐回归。在这个复杂的行业，伦敦邦德街(Bond Street)——或王府井大街——上的戒指销量，仅仅是整个图景中的一部分。供应链上端发生的事情更为重要，因为主要受益者是戴比尔斯和俄罗斯Alrosa这样的原钻供应商。

比利时珠宝生产商正向以色列钻石商购买更多的切割钻石。这些钻石商的货源是印度的某家切割抛光公司，它们的工人坐在巨大的厂房中，盯着机器将原钻切割成闪亮的珠宝。这些印度公司如今正在大幅增加从原钻供应商处的订购，戴比尔斯便是后者中最大的一家。这意味着，戴比尔斯在贫瘠的博茨瓦纳平原上的钻矿已重获新生。该公司计划今年生产大约3100万克拉原钻。

2008年，这条供应链——从北欧到以色列，再到印度——出现了断裂。取消订单的影响在整条供应链上传导，原钻生产商受到的打击最为沉重。彭尼表示，如今，市场正出现“反弹”。高企的原钻价格，反映出了供应链亟需补给的饥渴状况。

这个行业并不存在什么“钻石价格”。数千种不同的钻石有着不同的定价，且供应链每个层级的价格都会有所变化。但克拉利尔估计，平均而言，过去一年原钻（戴比尔斯的产品）价格上涨了80%，抛光钻石价格上涨了5%。

伊文-左哈表示：“目前不存在进一步的去库存化。”他表示，2008年，全球的原钻需求大约为134亿美元。“去年，这一数字降到了约75亿美元，但在2010年，由于连锁反应，我们预计需求将会超过120亿美元。”

Fusion Alternatives负责人、前Rapaport研究部主管索尔•辛格(Saul Singer)表示，“近几周，抛光钻石市场强有力的价格阻力位已被突破。整条曲线已经上移。”

克拉利尔表示，未来几年，原钻实际价格应该至少会上涨5%。“可能轻轻松松就会上涨10%或12%，”他认为。这并不意味着钻石珠宝价格将会上涨，因为珠宝还包含黄金等其它组成部分。

尽管中国前景美好，但美国仍然是全球最大的单一钻石市场。

彭尼发出了警告。“美国市场正缓慢复苏，但其速度远不及中国。在（美国）市场完全复苏前，我们要保持谨慎。”

但如果钻石峰值理论成真，那将是因为中国和印度这样的地区。

这不足为奇——业内一高管称，一位中国妇女最近走进了海瑞•温斯顿(Harry Winston)在中国的一家精品店，一天就买了价值3000万美元的钻石珠宝。

译者/何黎

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032399

Call it "peak diamonds". De Beers, the South African miner that is the world's biggest producer, says that the world's sources of the gems are depleting and are not being replaced fast enough to meet long-term demand. Many analysts and traders agree.

The argument sounds much like the controversial "peak oil" theory, which in its most extreme version says the world is already running out of oil. With diamonds, analysts differ over the exact timing of when peak output will be reached.

In an industry built around myths the idea is appealing, because it draws more attention to the rarity of the sparkling rocks. The miners - and De Beers in particular - have an interest in promoting this view, even if some commentators say it is not necessarily true.

The problem is this. Between 1980 and 1999 the global diamond supply doubled as huge new mines like Argyle in Australia and Diavik in Canada came on stream, according to Des Kilalea, diamond analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

Since then nothing comparable has been found, except for the Marange diamond field in Zimbabwe, which could be the next bonanza deposit if law and order returned to the country. The cold war-era diamond stockpiles held by the US and the old De Beers cartel have also been sold off.

De Beers sees an "elephant curve" in supply, with the production picture over the next 20 years resembling an elephant's back, tailing off gradually.

But the peak diamonds story is credible. The depletion of the world's big diamond mines could be exacerbated by the rise in demand from markets like China. De Beers sees Beijing as a new force that will hasten the decline of its largest mines in Botswana and South Africa.

"If you look back 20 years there was no diamond acquisition culture in China," Gareth Penny, De Beers' chief executive, told the Financial Times. "But in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou there is an obvious launchpad: 40 per cent of brides in those cities are getting diamond engagement rings. It was zero 15 years ago."

The China factor is one reason why De Beers has decided to moderate production permanently. Its "new normal" peak output from 2011 onwards, Mr Penny says, will be about 40m carats annually. This compares with 48m in 2008 and 51m in 2007. A portion of the shortfall comes from De Beers selling diamond mines in 2008.

Some say this production strategy will help De Beers influence prices a decade after its system for controlling the diamond market broke apart. The company is no longer in control but is the most powerful actor in a diversifying market, with its sales arm accounting for about 40 per cent of rough diamond sales.

"Did [De Beers] ever really leave its old ways? The easy answer is no," says Chaim Even-Zohar, a diamond industry expert, referring to the company's impulse to influence prices either through sales or customer contracts. "But I don't think there is anything wrong with keeping its goods in the ground to have more for tomorrow."

De Beers' new strategy - in which production levels are just one part - follows an industry downturn that was especially brutal for the company. De Beers slashed production in half in 2009, producing only 24m carats. It plunged to a net loss of $743m and asked shareholders for a $1bn cash injection.

But demand for diamonds is returning. In this complex industry, the number of rings being sold on Bond Street - or Wangfujing Road - is only part of the picture. What is happening further up the supply chain is more important, with the chief beneficiaries being rough suppliers like De Beers and Alrosa, its Russian rival.

Belgian jewellery manufacturers are buying more cut diamonds from Israeli diamond merchants. Those companies have sourced the gems from one of the Indian cutting and polishing companies, whose workers sit in vast rooms squinting over machinery that cut stones in to brilliant jewels. The Indians are now ramping up their orders from rough diamond suppliers, of which De Beers is the biggest. These moves mean that De Beers' mines on the arid plains of Botswana have cranked back to life. It aims to produce about 31m carats this year.

In 2008 that supply chain, from northern Europe to Israel to India, broke down. The impact of cancelled orders rippled up the supply chain, with rough producers hit hardest. Now a "reverse bounce" is happening, Mr Penny says. Very high rough prices reflect a starved pipeline that needs replenishment.

There is no "diamond price". Thousands of different types of diamonds are priced differently and the price changes at each stage in the supply chain. But on average, Mr Kilalea estimates, rough diamond prices - De Beers' output - have appreciated 80 per cent over the last year while polished gems prices have risen 5 per cent.

"There is no further destocking," Mr Even-Zohar says. Demand for rough diamonds in 2008 was about $13.4bn globally, he said. "That fell to about $7.5bn last year, but in 2010 because of the ripple effect, we expect demand over $12bn."

Saul Singer, a principal at Fusion Alternatives and a former head of research at Rapaport, said "steadfast price resistance levels in the polished markets have been broken in recent weeks. The whole curve has shifted up."

Mr Kilalea says that for the next few years, rough diamond prices should rise in real terms by at least 5 per cent. "It could easily be 10 or 12 per cent," he believes. This does not mean that diamond jewellery prices will go up, because jewellery combines other elements like gold.

Despite the promise of China, the US remains the biggest single diamond market.

Mr Penny urged caution. "The US market is coming back slowly, but the numbers are not anywhere close to China's. Until that [US] market comes back we need to show caution."

But if the peak diamond theory comes to pass, it will be because of places like China and India.

And no wonder - according to one industry executive, a Chinese woman recently walked into a Harry Winston boutique in China and bought $30m worth of diamond jewellery in a single day.

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032399/en

楼市新政会让中国经济硬着陆吗？ Daniel H. Rosen: The End of China's Property Boom- A Bang or a Blip?

Daniel H. Rosen

长

期以来，人们对中国经济过热的风险一直存在一种若隐若现的担忧，2010年一季度的经济数据让这种担忧终于表面化。数据公布后，最高政府机构国务院很快出台比预期更强硬的措施来抑制房地产投机。这些最新措施打压了房地产开发商及相关企业的股价，并让人们看到中国在刺激政策的推动下出现世界最强劲的复苏过后，政府对这种复苏的后果存在着一种怎样的担心。

在连续几次并非全心全意地尝试处理房价问题过后，北京这次动了真格。国务院上周出台多种措施，包括提高二套住房最低首付比例，提高部分首套房首付等。本周的消息说，物业税首批试点已经获批。高端、一线城市房地产市场有可能正在开始进行一次调整。投机性房产会出现一定程度的抛售，未来几个月市场也很有可能弥漫一丝恐慌情绪。

其结果会不会是中国经济硬着陆、全世界的需求遭遇一次负面冲击？

我认为当局出台的措施会改变房地产市场的情绪，但楼市的高烧要过几个月才会减退。北京将竭尽全力证明，高端房地产之退，将有低端房地产之进来弥补。至于整体上的经济增长，中国最多也只会出现软着陆。

一个主要原因在于，中国经济增长的结构（决定了它）不易遭遇一次扩大化的整体调整。3月份经济数据显示的增长率并没有突然大幅上升，相比过去只属于一种正常水平。国内生产总值(GDP)一季度增幅中的构成分别是：消费占52%（在整个11.9%的增幅中占6.2个百分点），资本形成占57.9%（6.9个百分点），外贸占-9.9%（-1.2个百分点）。让我们研究一下这三个GDP支出构成各自的前景。

楼市新政最终将开始为投资增长降温，但这需要一定的时间才会生效，并且多数拟建在建项目不会因此而停工。对一、二线城市泡沫性住房开发的约束，将有助于把投资维持在一个可控的水平，并释放出资金用于其他投资活动──这些投资活动的需求是很大的。

中国仍存在大量贷款带来的投资行为：1月份新增贷款规模达到2009年月度高位水平，之后的2、3两月有所减缓。但如果仅看中长期贷款，而忽略应收帐款短期融资的话，2010年新增贷款并未放缓，而是仍在增长。私人自有资金投资正在逐渐回归，外国投资及香港、台湾投资也呈现同样趋势。因而投资行为正在扩大。私人领域投资正以30%的速度增长，而制造业增速为26%。

消费对经济增长的贡献超过自1993年以来的任何年份。不幸的是，我们不知道一个季度中家庭消费与政府消费的细分数字，因而就不能确定地排除政府的周期性支持措施所起的作用。但受收入增长支持，消费信心持高并不断增长：中国城镇可支配收入年比增幅达10%，而消费支出增幅为11%，表明了消费（而非储蓄）意愿的增长。值得注意的是，高档汽车、家庭装修及家具等开支有所下滑，而化妆品、服装及电子产品等用途更广的消费品的支出增长较为可观。换言之，房市出现调整不会影响零售业。

从贸易看，中国3月份出现自2004年4月以来的首次贸易赤字。商务部官员称，今年净出口额将滑落到1000亿美元。而在2008及2009年净出口额分别约为3000亿及2000亿美元。但这种情形实际上不太可能发生，除非美欧经济出现痛苦的双底衰退。如果今年美欧经济增长分别为4.5%及2%，则中国2010年将重现贸易余额增长。贸易对经济增长的负作用已有所缓和，而且今年对经济增长的贡献将比去年大得多。

这种观点的底线是虽然住宅房地产市场已开始调整，但中国今年的GDP增幅不会低于8.5%。这假定净出口额保持在约2000亿美元水平，而非欧美经济出现双底衰退导致的净出口额缩减一半。

当然，可能会削弱这种观点的因素是中国国内通胀状况的发展。中国3月份CPI已达2.4%。如果消费者物价指数(CPI)回升，则将迫使政府不得不采取进一步的措施，并容易导致更令人担忧的回调。

（编者按：Daniel H. Rosen是专注中国问题的顾问机构Rhodium Group的负责人，也是彼特森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)访问学者、哥伦比亚大学客座副教授。）

（更新完成）

http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20100423/opn125254.asp?source=newsletter

Daniel H. Rosen

China's economic data for the first quarter of 2010 brought long-simmering worries about overheating to a boil, and was quickly followed by tougher-than-expected measures to restrain property speculation from the State Council, the nation's highest government body. The latest measures drove down shares in real estate developers and related companies, and crystallized fears about the aftermath to the strongest stimulus-led recovery in the world.

After a slew of half-hearted attempts to address property prices, Beijing is doing it for real this time. Last week the State Council announced measures including higher minimum down-payments for second homes and higher deposits for first home purchases, and this week the first trial of property taxes was reportedly authorized. We are likely at the beginning of a correction in upper-end, first-tier city real estate. There will be some dumping of speculative property, and there could well be a hint of panic in the air over the coming months.

Is a hard landing in China - and thus a negative demand shock for the whole world - going to be the result?

I think the authorities will win the battle for sentiment in the property market, but it will take some months for the nausea to subside. Beijing will pull out all the stops to show that what is taken out of high-end property will be made-up at the lower-end real estate. And in terms of overall economic growth, China is looking at a soft-ish landing at worst.

A major reason is that the structure of China's growth is not fragile or prone to a spreading, broader correction. The economic data for March did not show a strong spike, just the same growth that has been on track all along. The composition of growth in gross domestic product in the first quarter was: consumption 52% (or 6.2 percentage points of the overall 11.9% growth rate), capital formation 57.9%, (6.9 percentage points of growth), and trade -9.9% (which subtracted 1.2 percentage points from growth). Let's consider the outlook for each of these three GDP expenditure components.

Property policies will finally start to detoxify investment growth rates, but this will take time to effect and will not stop most projects in the pipeline. Discipline on frothy residential development in tier one and tier two cities will help to sustain investment at a manageable level, and frees up capital for other investment activities - for which there is plenty of demand.

And there is still plenty of credit fueling investment activity in China: after January, when net new lending was as large as the big months of 2009, February and March lending moderated. But if we just look at medium and long-term lending, and leave aside short-term financing against receivables, new credit is not slowing in 2010, it is still increasing. Private investment of own money is slowly coming back, as are foreign investors and those from Hong Kong and Taiwan. So investment activity is broadening. Service sector investment is growing at 30%; manufacturing 26%.

Consumption is now contributing more to growth than in any annual performance since 1993. Unfortunately, there is no way to tease apart household consumption from government consumption growth on a quarterly basis, so we can't be sure that this is not just a cyclical effort by government to be supportive. But consumer confidence is high and rising, supported by income growth: disposable income is up 10% year on year in urban China, and consumption expenditure is up 11% - showing a slight increase in propensity to consume rather than save. Notably, growth in big-ticket autos, household renovation and furnishings are coming down to earth, while the broader basket of consumer goods from cosmetics to clothing and electronics are stepping up handsomely. A housing correction will not take the wind out of retail sales, in other words.

On the trade side, China ran a trade deficit in March for the first time since April 2004. And Commerce Ministry officials have said that net exports would fall to a mere $100 billion this year (from around $300 billion in 2008 and $200 billion in 2009). However, this is unlikely to actually happen unless the U.S. and E.U. experience a painful double dip this year. If U.S. and E.U. grow at 4.5% and 2% respectively this year, then China will move back to a growing trade balance for 2010. The negative trade contribution to growth is already somewhat moderated, and trade will surely contribute much more to China's growth this year than last year.

The bottom line is that a correction in residential property is starting but China is not looking at a pullback in GDP growth to below 8.5% this year. This assumes that the trade surplus holds up at around $200 billion, rather than contracting by half as a result of a double dip in the US and Europe.

Of course, the development that could undermine this point of view is domestic inflation. If CPI inflation, which came out at 2.4% in March, were to resume an upward spiral, that would force additional steps that could easily trigger a more alarming pullback.


(Daniel H. Rosen is the principal of Rhodium Group, an advisory firm focusing on China, and is also a visiting fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics and an adjunct associate professor at Columbia University.)

http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20100423/opn125254_ENversion.shtml

股指期货：中国“最大的赌场”？ Wealthy traders fuel mania for Chinese financial futures

中国投资者热爱新型金融产品。他们的热情有时近乎狂热，这解释了为何在上海市场，新股上市时价格会一飞冲天，也解释了为何本地股票基金在推出当日就能募集到数十亿元人民币的资金。

但即便是老练的市场专业人士，也对投资者拥抱股指期货的热情感到惊讶——这是中国自上世纪90年代中期推出的首个金融期货，于两周前推出。

“成交量超出了所有人的预期，” Newedge上海首席代表迪安•欧文(Dean Owen)表示。Newedge是一家法国期货经纪商，与中国中信集团(Citic)有一家合资公司。

事实上，上周二，也就是交易启动后的第三天，中国金融期货交易所(CFFE)的股指期货成交量已经超过了上海证交所(SSE)的股票成交量。

股指期货合同允许买卖双方在某一指定日期，根据事先商定的价格买进或卖出一个股指。中国首个股指期货产品基于沪深300 (CSI 300)指数。该指数涵盖沪深两市最具代表性的蓝筹股。首批上市合约为2010年5月、6月、9月和12月合约。

每手合约的价值是用股指点数乘以300元人民币（约合44美元）。例如5月合约目前的交易点数在3200左右，这意味着其价值大概为96万元人民币。而周二，有近14万手此类合约易手，总价值达1340亿元人民币。

鉴于中国政府已颁布法规，禁止经验不足的投资者涉足指数期货市场，这种交易量的飙升就显得更为惊人。投资者必须要通过一场考试，并满足一系列苛刻条件，包括教育背景、信贷纪录、月薪和流动性资产等。

尽管存在这些限制性措施，而且经过了三年多的准备，但股指期货市场的开局似乎仍不太符合监管部门的期望。这个市场成为了富有投机者的乐园，而不是机构投资者为股票资产组合对冲风险的场所。

“目前股指期货市场被散户投资者主宰，而这正是监管部门和证交所希望避免出现的情况，”欧文表示。“很明显，散户投资者并没有把股指期货当做针对自身股票资产组合的对冲工具。”他指出，来自浙江的富豪占据了股指期货市场的大半壁江山，而他们中许多都是老练的大宗商品期货交易者。

超过90%的交易都在当天交割完成，表明了该市场的短期和投机性质，这种追求利润的连珠炮交易被称为“超短期交易”(scalping)。

例如，本周二，投资者交易了14万手5月合约。然而，到闭市时，只有不到7400手合约仍处于未交割状态。而在西方期货市场，所谓的“未平仓头寸”(open interest)通常要高于日成交量。

“我们还处于‘新事物'的兴奋期，” 摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)中国策略师娄刚(Jerry Lou)表示。“市场将在中长期内逐渐成熟，但就目前而言，它更多地将是一种以更高杠杆率进行投机的方式，而不是对冲工具。”

或许正因如此，中国证监会(CSRC)上周发布了交易指引，允许本土证券公司和证券投资基金参与股指期货交易，但只限套期保值，不得以投机为目的。

证监会还表示，将很快出台针对合格境外机构投资者(QDII)的相关法规。此举将使外资基金拥有一种对冲中国动荡股市下行风险的工具。今年以来中国股市累计下跌11%。

行业专家表示，麻烦在于，股指期货目前走势独立，对于作为基础的股市走向没有多少前瞻作用。

一名投资者将股指期货市场描述为中国“最大的赌场”。他表示，该市场非但没有成为稳定性的来源，反而只会加剧更广泛金融市场的动荡。

译者/何黎

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032418

Chinese investors love new financial products. Their passion, at times bordering on mania, explains why Shanghai stocks rocket in price on their trading debuts and why local equity funds can raise billions of renminbi on the day they launch.

But even seasoned market professionals have been surprised by the enthusiasm with which investors have embraced stock index futures – China's first financial futures since the mid-1990s – following their launch two weeks ago.

“The volumes have exceeded everyone's expectations,” says Dean Owen, Shanghai-based chief representative for Newedge, the French futures brokerage, which has a joint venture with Citic Group in China.

Indeed, on Tuesday last week, the third day of trading, the value of stock index futures traded on the China Financial Futures Exchange exceeded the value of stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

The first index futures, agreements to buy or sell an index at a given value on an agreed date, are based on the CSI 300 index, which tracks the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets. The initial contracts are for May, June, September and December.

Each contract is worth Rmb300 ($44) times the value of the index. That means the May contract, which has been trading around the 3,200 level, costs about Rmb960,000. Nearly 140,000 of these contracts were exchanged on Tuesday, worth a combined Rmb134bn.

The surge in trading volumes is all the more remarkable because Beijing has imposed rules to keep inexperienced investors out of the market. Investors must pass an examination and meet tough criteria for educational background, credit history, monthly salary and liquid assets.

Despite these controls and more than three years of preparations, the market has not started in quite the way regulators had hoped. Rather than being a place where institutional investors hedge stock portfolios, the market is a playground for wealthy speculators.

“The market is dominated by retail investors at the moment, which is something regulators and the exchange want to avoid,” says Mr Owen. “It is clear retail investors are not using the futures as a hedging tool against their stock portfolios.” Wealthy people from Zhejiang province, many of them seasoned commodity futures traders, comprise more than half of the stock index futures market, he says.

The short-term, speculative nature of the market is illustrated by the fact that more than 90 per cent of trades are opened and closed on the same day, a kind of rapid-fire trading for profit known as scalping.

On Tuesday this week, for example, investors traded 140,000 May-dated contracts. However, fewer than 7,400 contracts were left open at the end of the day. In western futures markets, so-called “open interest” is typically higher than daily trading volumes.

“We're still in the ‘new thing' excitement period,” says Jerry Lou, China equity strategist at Morgan Stanley. “The market will mature in the mid to long term, but for now it will be more of a greater-leverage way to play the market than a hedging tool.”

This may be why the China Securities Regulatory Commission released guidelines on Friday that allowed domestic securities companies and mutual funds to trade the stock index futures, but only for hedging rather than speculative purposes.

The CSRC also said it would soon unveil regulations for qualified foreign institutional investors to trade index futures. Such a move would give foreign funds a tool for hedging against downturns in China's volatile stock market, which has fallen 11 per cent this year.

The trouble, industry experts say, is that the stock index futures currently have a life of their own and reveal little about the direction of the underlying stock market.

One investor describes the futures market as the “biggest casino” in China. Rather than being a source of stability, he says, it will only increase volatility in the wider market.

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032418/en

惠普12亿美元收购Palm Hewlett Packard to buy Palm for $1.2bn

惠普(Hewlett-Packard)周四宣布，将以12亿美元购买身陷困境的智能手机生产商Palm。投资者对Palm这个个人科技品牌能否继续生存的日渐加深的疑虑得以终结。

这项并购使得惠普立刻跻身迅速增长的智能手机行业，得以与包括苹果(Apple)、谷歌(Google)和微软(Microsoft)在内的五六家科技巨头同场竞技。以收入计算，惠普是全球最大的科技公司。

惠普表示，它将为每股Palm股票支付5.7美元现金，这个价格比Palm周四收市价高出23%。

Palm股价六个月前达到峰值，但此后已经下跌四分之三。这家位于硅谷的公司一直苦于无法提振销售，因此无法令华尔街相信它能继续作为一个独立公司存在。

惠普首席战略技术官谢恩•罗比森(Shane Robison)表示，惠普此笔交易主要是意在获得Palm的Web OS操作系统。这个操作系统自去年早期发布以来，在科技界颇受好评。惠普高管还暗示，在未来可能会将该软件应用于制造体积更大的平板电脑，挑战苹果的iPad。

全球最大的科技企业目前都试图在蓬勃发展的智能手机和平板电脑中寻找机遇，而最新的这项交易将改变目前的竞争格局。作为全球最大的个人电脑生产商，惠普一直是微软的亲密盟友，但现在，二者将会在软件领域展开直接竞争。

“这可能会惹恼微软，”Gartner公司分析师肯•杜兰利(Ken Dulaney)说。他对惠普将尝试多种不同操作系统的决定也表示了质疑。他说：“在两条战线上他们都有很多事要做。”

惠普罗比森表示，这项收购能给惠普带来Palm的技术和开发人员，能让惠普可以立刻在智能手机领域大展拳脚。

尽管惠普曾是智能手机前身——掌上电脑领域的领跑者，但此后，在苹果和谷歌先后给这个产业带来深刻变革、制造出新一代的基于触摸屏的产品之时，惠普却落在了后面。

罗比森表示，对于惠普而言，Palm的价值还体现在该公司1千多项专利上，它们将帮助惠普分得一块市场。

Palm周三称，该公司智能手机销量和现金储备都急剧下降，使得寻找买家变得更为紧迫。该公司预计本季度收入将只能达到9000万至1亿美元，大大低于华尔街上月还在预测的3亿美元。Palm还表示，到5月底，现金储备将从三个月前的5.92亿美元降至3.5亿至4亿美元之间。一些分析师曾就此预测，该公司可能到年底之前就会出现现金断流。

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032419

Hewlett-Packard has stepped in to buy the troubled smartphone maker Palm, announcing a $1.2bn deal on Thursday that brings to an end the growing doubts over the future of the personal technology brand.

The deal will catapult HP, the world’s largest tech company in terms of revenue, into the middle of the rapidly growing smartphone business in direct competition with a handful of other tech giants, including Apple, Google and Microsoft.

HP said it would pay $5.70 a share in cash for the company, representing a 23 per cent premium over its closing stock price on Thursday.

Palm’s shares have fallen by three-quarters from their peak six months ago as the Silicon Valley-based company has failed to drum-up the sales it needed to convince Wall Street that it could remain an independent company.

Shane Robison, chief strategy and technology officer at HP, said the company was making the purchase mainly to get its hands on Palm’s Web OS operating system, which has won plaudits in the tech world since its launch early last year. HP executives also hinted that they would use the software in future for larger “tablet” computers to rival Apple’s iPad.

The purchase brings a new twist in the shifting rivalries between some of the world’s biggest tech companies as they jostle for position in the booming market for smartphones and tablets. As the world’s biggest PC maker HP has been a close ally of Microsoft, but will now find itself a direct competitor in software.

“This will probably anger Microsoft,” said Ken Dulaney, an analyst at Gartner. He also questioned HP’s decision to spread its efforts across different operating systems, adding: “They’ve got a lot of work to do on both fronts.”

The purchase is intended to jump-start HP’s smartphone business by bringing both technology and developers from Palm, Mr Robison said.

Although an early leader in the hand-held PCs that preceded smartphones, HP has stood by until now while first Apple and then Google revolutionised the business with a new generation of touch-screen devices.

Palm’s value to HP also lay in its portfolio of more than 1,000 patents, which will make it easier for the company to carve out a place in the market, Mr Robison said.

Palm also revealed on Wednesday that it had suffered a further sharp deterioration in its smartphone sales and cash reserves, adding to its urgency in finding an acquirer. The company said revenues this quarter were likely to reach only $90-100m, compared to the $300m Wall Street had been expecting as recently as last month. It also said its cash would fall to $350-400m by the end of May from $592m three months before, prompting analysts to predict that it could run out of cash before the end of the year.

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032419/en

什么决定品牌命运？All about emerging markets, trust and price

新兴市场品牌重要性的日益提升，是2010年Brandz全球品牌百强排行榜(BrandZ Top 100 ranking)编纂者挑选出的几大主题之一。

上榜的13个新兴市场品牌中，有7个来自中国，俄罗斯和巴西各有2个，印度和墨西哥则各占一席。新上榜的品牌包括中国搜索引擎百度(Baidu)、印度工业信贷投资银行(ICICI)和墨西哥的Telcel。

印度大型金融服务集团ICICI初次亮相就排到了第45位，令人印象深刻，其品牌价值总额高达145亿美元。

明略行(Millward Brown Optimor)首席执行官乔安娜•塞登(Joanna Seddon)称赞ICICI董事长卡马斯(KV Kamath)在印度各地推广ATM的行为，是打破该国传统等级壁垒的有益之举——无论是清洁工还是银行高管，每个人都必须派队等候。ICICI因为其在印度及其它地区的发展潜力，在品牌发展势头榜单上高居第9位。该行已在18个国家开展业务。

印度大型IT集团——印孚瑟斯技术公司(Infosys Technologies)刚好排在百强之外，但首次进入了科技20强品牌排行榜(Technology Top 20)。塞登表示，这个品牌很有趣，因为它的创始人之一是南丹•尼勒卡尼(Nandan Nilekani)，而且尼勒卡尼非常推崇“世界是平的”这个概念——即通过在全球范围内进行外包，服务于客户（托马斯•弗里德曼(Thomas Friedman)的畅销书《世界是平的：21世纪简史》(The World is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century)就宣扬了这种观点）。

卡马斯与尼勒卡尼在明略行进行的另一个主题排行——品牌领袖首席执行官——中也占有一席之位。

在百强品牌中，许多品牌都是由拥有品牌愿景的领袖所缔造、或赋予它们第二次生命。这些领袖包括Telcel的卡洛斯•斯利姆(Carlos Slim)、苹果(Apple)的史蒂夫•乔布斯(Steve Jobs)、IBM的郭士纳(Lou Gerstner)，以及星巴克(Starbucks)的霍华德•舒尔茨(Howard Schultz)。

舒尔茨两年前重新接过首席执行官的日常管理角色，以重振星巴克——这家他一手从初创阶段培育成全球性品牌的公司。

塞登表示，舒尔茨对于星巴克的愿景，归根结底是建立人与人之间的联系。

“他退出了日常管理，而其他人做了什么？他们开始寻求急速增长。而如今，如果你运营一个旨在建立人际联系的品牌，或许急速增长的战略并不适合。他们扩张得非常快，某种程度上丧失了品牌的神髓，然后，舒尔茨回来了，这个品牌做得更好了（在最新的百强排行榜中，它的品牌价值增长了17%）。”

明略行BrandZ全球总监彼得•沃尔什(Peter Walshe)表示，一些有着品牌愿景的人已不再担任首席执行官，但其继任者遵循了他们的愿景，将其作为公司独特的一面，并获得了巨大成功。

此类继任者的例子包括IBM的萨姆•帕米萨诺(Sam Palmisano)、汇丰(HSBC)的纪勤(Michael Geoghegan)。汇丰董事长斯蒂芬•葛霖(Stephen Green)现在是英国圣公会(Church of England)的受命教长，并撰写了《天国与财利：葛霖论金融市场》(Serving God, Serving Mammon)一书。

合法的癖好——不管是由来已久的传统喜好（香烟），还是更现代的喜好（玩手机或黑莓(BlackBerry)）——是排行榜编纂者选择的另一主题。万宝路(Marlboro)向来位列前十，在过去五年内，它的品牌价值平均以10%的复合年率增长。

塞登表示，总的来说，最新百强排行榜“告诉你，在压力下生活的人们想做一些事情来释放压力，用手捣鼓点什么东西。他们要么吸烟，要么玩黑莓。举例来说：如果你的工作压力极大，比如担任美国总统，或许你会觉得这两个你都需要。”

塞登表示，在手机领域，全球前十大运营商均进入了BrandZ百强排行榜，另外还有苹果、黑莓与三星(Samsung)。这很大程度上归因于移动应用程序惊人的增长——“从数独游戏，到‘寻找一名技工'(Find a Mechanic)，再到BrandZ，”塞登表示。

沃尔什补充表示，推动品牌增长有两个关键因素：一是信赖，即该品牌累计的历史价值，二是现有用户的推荐。“该类别比较有趣的一点是……推动品牌的主要是用户推荐，而非信赖，”他表示。

一些最具价值品牌同时获得了信赖与推荐——这是此次排行的另一个重大发现。

尽管IBM受到了消费者的极大信赖，苹果得到了很高的推荐，但明略行的研究显示，两大消费者/家庭品牌——帮宝适(Pampers)和汰渍(Tide)——位于信赖与推荐品牌排行榜之首（由于石油公司的大量涌入，汰渍被挤出了品牌价值百强榜）。

沃尔什表示，在上述两个标准方面排名均靠前的品牌，要么富有远见，要么受益于历史表现中累积的价值。“而且，他们如今仍在传递这种优质服务，同时还加入了创新，并维持自己价值……尤其是在最近时期，随着政客与银行失去信誉，受信任的品牌变得越来越有价值。”

价格的影响，以及最强大、最具价值品牌的价格更为抗跌的事实，是我们从明略行研究中得出的又一个重要发现。

由于它们引起了消费者的拥有欲望，它们往往会获得一个较好的价格溢价，即使是在衰退时期，前百强品牌也会定价与品牌力之间取得恰当的平衡。

BrandZ的数据显示，只有7%的消费者完全根据价格购物；不到三分之一的人，会在价格与品牌之间进行综合考虑；对于近90%的人而言，品牌是一个重要影响因素，而有逾半数的人几乎不怎么注意价格。

译者/何黎

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032417

The growing importance of brands from emerging markets is one of several themes picked out by compilers of the 2010 BrandZ Top 100 ranking.

Seven of the 13 emerging-market brands on the list come from China, two each from Russia and Brazil, and one apiece from India and Mexico. New entrants include Baidu, the Chinese search engine, along with ICICI and Telcel from India and Mexico respectively.

ICICI, the big Indian financial services group, makes its debut in an impressive 45th place, with a brand value of $14.5bn.

Joanna Seddon, chief executive of Millward Brown Optimor, praises ICICI's chairman, KV Kamath, for championing ATMs throughout India as a way of breaking down the country's traditional hierarchical barriers – everyone has to wait in line, whether they are a cleaner or a bank executive. ICICI scores a high nine for brand momentum because of its potential in India and elsewhere – it already operates in 18 countries.

Just outside the Top 100, but included for the first time in the Technology Top 20, is Infosys Technologies, the big Indian IT group. Ms Seddon says it is an interesting brand because of its co-founder Nandan Nilekani and his espousal of the “flat world” concept – that is, servicing customers through outsourcing anywhere in the world (as popularised in the bestseller by Thomas Friedman, The World is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century).

Both Mr Kamath and Mr Nilekani feature in another theme identified by MBO – the chief executive as brand leader.

Many of the top 100 have been built – or revived – by leaders with brand vision. They include Carlos Slim of Telcel, Apple's Steve Jobs, Lou Gerstner of IBM and Starbucks' Howard Schultz, who returned to a day-to-day role as chief executive two years ago to revive the fortunes of the company he nurtured from infancy into a global brand.

Mr Schultz's vision for Starbucks was all about making human connections, says Ms Seddon.

“He abdicated from running it and what did they do? They went into drive-throughs. Now, if you've got a brand that's about human connections, maybe a drive-through doesn't quite fit. They expanded very fast, and kind of lost the brand essence, and he's come back again and the brand is doing better [its brand value rose 17 per cent in the latest Top 100].”

Peter Walshe, MBO's global BrandZ director, says some of the visionaries are no longer chief executives but their successors are following the same vision as a unique aspect of those companies, with great success.

Examples of the successors include Sam Palmisano at IBM and Michael Geoghegan at HSBC, whose chairman, Stephen Green, is an ordained minister in the Church of England and author of Serving God, Serving Mammon.

Legal addiction – whether of the long-established variety (cigarettes) or modern (playing with mobile phones or BlackBerry) – is another theme picked out by the ranking's compilers. Marlboro, ever present in the top 10, has seen its brand value grow at an average compound annual rate of 10 per cent over the past five years.

Overall, the latest Top 100 list “tells you that people in their stressful lives want to do something to relieve the stress, fiddling with their hands”, she says. “They are either smoking, or they're twiddling on their BlackBerries, and we have an example: if you have a really stressful job, like president of the United States, you may feel the need to do both.”

In mobile phones, the world's top 10 operators are all in the top 100 of the BrandZ rankings, says Ms Seddon, along with Apple, BlackBerry and Samsung, and a lot of this is down to the phenomenal growth of mobile applications or apps – “everything from Sudoku to Find a Mechanic to BrandZ”, she says.

Mr Walshe adds that two key things drive brands – trust, which is the historic brand value that has been built up, and current user recommendation. “What's interesting about this category ... is that the brands are particularly high in user recommendation. They're not particularly driven by trust,” he says.

Some of the most valuable brands are underpinned by both trust and recommendation – another key finding from the rankings.

While IBM is driven hugely by trust and Apple by recommendation, research by MBO has shown that Pampers and Tide, two consumer/household products, are the top trusted and recommended brands (Tide has slipped out of the Top 100 because of the influx of oil companies).

Brands that are high on both criteria are either visionary or benefit from having built up a heritage, based on historic performance, says Mr Walshe. “And they are delivering it today, together with innovation, and keeping themselves relevant…particularly in recent times, as politicians and banks lose credibility, trusted brands become more and more valuable.”

The role of price, and the fact that the strongest and most valuable brands are more price-resistance, is a further important finding from research by MBO.

Because of the desire they create from consumers, they tend to command a healthy price premium, even in recessionary times, and the Top 100 brands get the balance right between pricing and the power of the brand.

Data from BrandZ show that only 7 per cent of consumers buy on price alone; under a third make a compromise between price and brand; and brand is an important influence for nearly nine out of 10, while more than half take little notice of price.

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