不妨称之为“钻石峰值”理论。全球最大的钻石生产商南非矿商戴比尔斯(De Beers)宣称，世界上的钻石资源正日渐枯竭，而且其它产品替代它的速度，不足以满足长期需求。许多分析师和交易商对此表示赞同。
这种论点听上去和充满争议的“石油峰值”理论颇为相似。最极端的“石油峰值”理论认为，世界上的石油已经快要用完了。至于钻石，在产量达到峰值水平的确切时间问题上，分析师则存在分歧。
在这样一个富有神话色彩的行业，上述观点颇具吸引力，因为它让人们更关注这种耀眼石头的稀缺性。大举宣扬这种观点，符合各大矿商（尤其是戴比尔斯）的利益，尽管有些评论家认为，这未必属实。
问题是这样的：加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)钻石行业分析师达斯•克拉利尔(Des Kilalea)表示，在1980至1999年期间，全球钻石供应增长了一倍，因为新发现的大型矿山——例如澳大利亚的Argyle和加拿大的戴维克(Diavik)——开始投产。
但自那以后，除了津巴布韦的Marange钻石矿，再没有发现同等规模的新矿。Marange可能成为下一个特大型矿床，前提是津巴布韦的法律与秩序得以恢复。冷战时期，美国及旧时戴比尔斯卡特尔组织持有的钻石储备也已出售殆尽。
戴比尔斯认为，供给将呈现一种“象形曲线”走势——即未来20年的生产规模就像一头大象的背部，逐渐变得越来越小。
但钻石峰值论是可信的。中国等市场需求的增长，会加速世界大型钻石矿的枯竭。戴比尔斯认为，中国市场就是一股新力量，将会加速其位于博茨瓦纳和南非的最大钻矿的衰竭。
戴比尔斯首席执行官加雷斯•彭尼(Gareth Penny)告诉英国《金融时报》：“如果你看看20年前，你会发现，中国不存在购买钻石的文化。但在北京、上海和广州，这种文化已明显启动：这些城市40%的新娘有钻石婚戒。而15年前这一数字为零。”
中国因素是戴比尔斯决定永久减产的原因之一。彭尼表示，从2011年起，公司“新的正常”最高产出将约为每年4000万克拉。而其2008年的产量为4800万克拉，2007年为5100万克拉。其中的部分减产，是由于戴比尔斯2008年出售了一些钻矿。
一些人表示，在戴比尔斯控制钻石市场的体系瓦解十年之后，上述生产策略将有助于该公司影响市场价格。该公司已不再控制市场，但仍是这个多元化市场上最具影响力的参与者——其销售额占到了全球原钻销售的40%左右。
钻石行业专家查姆•伊文-左哈(Chaim Even-Zohar)表示：“（戴比尔斯）真的曾经放弃过它的老套路吗？显然没有。”他指的是该公司试图通过销售或客户合约影响价格的那种冲动。“但我认为，保留存货，以便今后有更多东西可卖，并没有什么不对。”
在戴比尔斯提出新策略（产量水平只是其中的一部分）之前，钻石行业经历了一轮低迷，而该公司所受的冲击尤为巨大。去年，戴比尔斯将产量削减了一半，年产量仅为2400万克拉。公司出现了7.43亿美元的净亏损，并向股东寻求了10亿美元的注资。
但钻石需求正逐渐回归。在这个复杂的行业，伦敦邦德街(Bond Street)——或王府井大街——上的戒指销量，仅仅是整个图景中的一部分。供应链上端发生的事情更为重要，因为主要受益者是戴比尔斯和俄罗斯Alrosa这样的原钻供应商。
比利时珠宝生产商正向以色列钻石商购买更多的切割钻石。这些钻石商的货源是印度的某家切割抛光公司，它们的工人坐在巨大的厂房中，盯着机器将原钻切割成闪亮的珠宝。这些印度公司如今正在大幅增加从原钻供应商处的订购，戴比尔斯便是后者中最大的一家。这意味着，戴比尔斯在贫瘠的博茨瓦纳平原上的钻矿已重获新生。该公司计划今年生产大约3100万克拉原钻。
2008年，这条供应链——从北欧到以色列，再到印度——出现了断裂。取消订单的影响在整条供应链上传导，原钻生产商受到的打击最为沉重。彭尼表示，如今，市场正出现“反弹”。高企的原钻价格，反映出了供应链亟需补给的饥渴状况。
这个行业并不存在什么“钻石价格”。数千种不同的钻石有着不同的定价，且供应链每个层级的价格都会有所变化。但克拉利尔估计，平均而言，过去一年原钻（戴比尔斯的产品）价格上涨了80%，抛光钻石价格上涨了5%。
伊文-左哈表示：“目前不存在进一步的去库存化。”他表示，2008年，全球的原钻需求大约为134亿美元。“去年，这一数字降到了约75亿美元，但在2010年，由于连锁反应，我们预计需求将会超过120亿美元。”
Fusion Alternatives负责人、前Rapaport研究部主管索尔•辛格(Saul Singer)表示，“近几周，抛光钻石市场强有力的价格阻力位已被突破。整条曲线已经上移。”
克拉利尔表示，未来几年，原钻实际价格应该至少会上涨5%。“可能轻轻松松就会上涨10%或12%，”他认为。这并不意味着钻石珠宝价格将会上涨，因为珠宝还包含黄金等其它组成部分。
尽管中国前景美好，但美国仍然是全球最大的单一钻石市场。
彭尼发出了警告。“美国市场正缓慢复苏，但其速度远不及中国。在（美国）市场完全复苏前，我们要保持谨慎。”
但如果钻石峰值理论成真，那将是因为中国和印度这样的地区。
这不足为奇——业内一高管称，一位中国妇女最近走进了海瑞•温斯顿(Harry Winston)在中国的一家精品店，一天就买了价值3000万美元的钻石珠宝。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032399
Call it "peak diamonds". De Beers, the South African miner that is the world's biggest producer, says that the world's sources of the gems are depleting and are not being replaced fast enough to meet long-term demand. Many analysts and traders agree.
The argument sounds much like the controversial "peak oil" theory, which in its most extreme version says the world is already running out of oil. With diamonds, analysts differ over the exact timing of when peak output will be reached.
In an industry built around myths the idea is appealing, because it draws more attention to the rarity of the sparkling rocks. The miners - and De Beers in particular - have an interest in promoting this view, even if some commentators say it is not necessarily true.
The problem is this. Between 1980 and 1999 the global diamond supply doubled as huge new mines like Argyle in Australia and Diavik in Canada came on stream, according to Des Kilalea, diamond analyst at RBC Capital Markets.
Since then nothing comparable has been found, except for the Marange diamond field in Zimbabwe, which could be the next bonanza deposit if law and order returned to the country. The cold war-era diamond stockpiles held by the US and the old De Beers cartel have also been sold off.
De Beers sees an "elephant curve" in supply, with the production picture over the next 20 years resembling an elephant's back, tailing off gradually.
But the peak diamonds story is credible. The depletion of the world's big diamond mines could be exacerbated by the rise in demand from markets like China. De Beers sees Beijing as a new force that will hasten the decline of its largest mines in Botswana and South Africa.
"If you look back 20 years there was no diamond acquisition culture in China," Gareth Penny, De Beers' chief executive, told the Financial Times. "But in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou there is an obvious launchpad: 40 per cent of brides in those cities are getting diamond engagement rings. It was zero 15 years ago."
The China factor is one reason why De Beers has decided to moderate production permanently. Its "new normal" peak output from 2011 onwards, Mr Penny says, will be about 40m carats annually. This compares with 48m in 2008 and 51m in 2007. A portion of the shortfall comes from De Beers selling diamond mines in 2008.
Some say this production strategy will help De Beers influence prices a decade after its system for controlling the diamond market broke apart. The company is no longer in control but is the most powerful actor in a diversifying market, with its sales arm accounting for about 40 per cent of rough diamond sales.
"Did [De Beers] ever really leave its old ways? The easy answer is no," says Chaim Even-Zohar, a diamond industry expert, referring to the company's impulse to influence prices either through sales or customer contracts. "But I don't think there is anything wrong with keeping its goods in the ground to have more for tomorrow."
De Beers' new strategy - in which production levels are just one part - follows an industry downturn that was especially brutal for the company. De Beers slashed production in half in 2009, producing only 24m carats. It plunged to a net loss of $743m and asked shareholders for a $1bn cash injection.
But demand for diamonds is returning. In this complex industry, the number of rings being sold on Bond Street - or Wangfujing Road - is only part of the picture. What is happening further up the supply chain is more important, with the chief beneficiaries being rough suppliers like De Beers and Alrosa, its Russian rival.
Belgian jewellery manufacturers are buying more cut diamonds from Israeli diamond merchants. Those companies have sourced the gems from one of the Indian cutting and polishing companies, whose workers sit in vast rooms squinting over machinery that cut stones in to brilliant jewels. The Indians are now ramping up their orders from rough diamond suppliers, of which De Beers is the biggest. These moves mean that De Beers' mines on the arid plains of Botswana have cranked back to life. It aims to produce about 31m carats this year.
In 2008 that supply chain, from northern Europe to Israel to India, broke down. The impact of cancelled orders rippled up the supply chain, with rough producers hit hardest. Now a "reverse bounce" is happening, Mr Penny says. Very high rough prices reflect a starved pipeline that needs replenishment.
There is no "diamond price". Thousands of different types of diamonds are priced differently and the price changes at each stage in the supply chain. But on average, Mr Kilalea estimates, rough diamond prices - De Beers' output - have appreciated 80 per cent over the last year while polished gems prices have risen 5 per cent.
"There is no further destocking," Mr Even-Zohar says. Demand for rough diamonds in 2008 was about $13.4bn globally, he said. "That fell to about $7.5bn last year, but in 2010 because of the ripple effect, we expect demand over $12bn."
Saul Singer, a principal at Fusion Alternatives and a former head of research at Rapaport, said "steadfast price resistance levels in the polished markets have been broken in recent weeks. The whole curve has shifted up."
Mr Kilalea says that for the next few years, rough diamond prices should rise in real terms by at least 5 per cent. "It could easily be 10 or 12 per cent," he believes. This does not mean that diamond jewellery prices will go up, because jewellery combines other elements like gold.
Despite the promise of China, the US remains the biggest single diamond market.
Mr Penny urged caution. "The US market is coming back slowly, but the numbers are not anywhere close to China's. Until that [US] market comes back we need to show caution."
But if the peak diamond theory comes to pass, it will be because of places like China and India.
And no wonder - according to one industry executive, a Chinese woman recently walked into a Harry Winston boutique in China and bought $30m worth of diamond jewellery in a single day.
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