2010年4月13日

核安全峰会:中美掌握微妙平衡 Beijing resists US urging on renminbi

中国国家主席胡锦涛保持了微妙的平衡:一方面坚持了北京方面制定汇率政策的权利,另一方面又避免了在一个最敏感的国际外交问题上与美国公开冲突。

据官方的新华社报道,胡锦涛在华盛顿核安全峰会期间表示:“中方推进人民币汇率形成机制改革的方向坚定不移。”但据新华社报道,胡锦涛坚称,北京方面的行动“不会在外部压力下加以推进”。

胡锦涛的任务是,一方面把握住国内情绪,另一方面设法找到一种可行的妥协。峰会期间,在对伊朗实施制裁这一两国间主要议题之一上,这个任务体现得十分明显。美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)也不得不找到类似的平衡。

此前美国决定减轻要求中国让人民币升值的公开压力,推迟发表一份原定于4月15日公布的半年度报告,该报告可能把中国列为汇率操纵国。作为回报,胡锦涛同意出席华盛顿峰会,此举加剧了有关人民币不久将升值的猜测。

但胡锦涛昨日表示,他并不认同美方的观点,即人民币升值将有助于世界经济的再平衡。新华社援引他的话说:“人民币升值既解决不了中美贸易不平衡问题,也解决不了美国的就业问题。”

针对胡锦涛的言论,金融市场降低了对人民币汇率放开的预期。经济学家们表示,人民币从年中开始逐渐升值,仍是最有可能的结果。

“中国采取行动只是一个时间问题,但他们希望自己是针对国内经济形势来采取行动,”咨询公司资本经济(Capital Economics)的国际经济学家凯文•格赖斯(Kevin Grice)表示。

美方表示,类似的合作(如果算不上“协调一致”的话)气氛,在美国就制裁伊朗推动达成共识方面也很明显。“今年早些时候的分歧,不应被视为两国关系的常态,”一名美国官员表示。“我们确实存在分歧,但这是人尽皆知的事,总体趋势是扩大合作。”

白宫将奥巴马与胡锦涛本周一90分钟的会晤称为伊朗问题上“国际团结的又一个迹象”。白宫亚洲事务主管杰夫•贝德(Jeff Bader)表示,两国领导人同意指示各自的联合国代表团拟订一份制裁决议案。

北京方面的口气则微妙得多。中国外交部发言人姜瑜表示:“对话与谈判是解决伊朗核问题的最佳途径,制裁和施压无法从根本上解决问题。”

但姜瑜也暗示,联合国安理会现在很有可能采取措施。她说:“安理会的有关行动应有助于实现局势转圜,有助于推动通过对话与谈判妥善解决伊核问题。”

在中国的外交官和学者圈子中,几个月来人们一直假定,中国最终可能会支持针对伊朗的另一轮制裁,以免在安理会中陷于孤立。不过,预期北京方面将在幕后大力活动,以降低制裁的力度,尤其是在那些可能波及中国自身能源利益的部分。

译者/和风


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032190


Hu Jintao has maintained the tricky balance of asserting Beijing's right to set exchange rate policy while avoiding open conflict with the US over one of the most sensitive issues in international diplomacy.

“China will firmly stick to a path of reforming the yuan's exchange rate formation mechanism,” the Chinese president said at the nuclear security summit in Washington, according to China's official Xinhua news agency. But he insisted that a move by Beijing “won't be advanced by any foreign pressure”, the agency reported.

Mr Hu's task – managing domestic sentiment while attempting to find a work­able compromise – was evident in one of the main issues between the powers at the summit: imposing sanctions on Iran. Barack Obama, US president, has to find a similar balance.

The US decided to ease off its public pressure on China to allow the renminbi to appreciate by postponing a twice-yearly report, originally due for publication on April 15, which could have named China as a currency manipulator. In return, Mr Hu agreed to attend the summit, increasing speculation that the renminbi would soon be revalued.

But yesterday he indicated that he did not share the US view that revaluation would contribute to rebalancing the world economy. “Renminbi appreciation would neither balance Sino-US trade nor solve the unemployment problem in the United States,” Xinhua quoted him as saying.

The financial markets reacted to Mr Hu's reported remarks by lowering expectations for liberalisation of the renminbi. Economists said a gradual rise beginning around the middle of the year was still the most likely outcome.

“It is only a matter of time before China moves, but they like to do things in response to domestic economic conditions,” said Kevin Grice, international economist at consultancy Capital Economics.

The US said a similar mood of co-operation, if not concordance, was also evident over its drive to agree sanctions on Iran. “The disagreements of earlier this year should not be seen as the norm for the relationship,” said a US official. “We do have disagreements, but they are well known – the trend is for greater co-operation.”

The White House hailed Monday's 90-minute meeting between the presidents as “another sign of international unity” on Iran. Jeff Bader, Mr Obama's top White House adviser on Asia, said they agreed to instruct their United Nations delegations to work on a sanctions resolution.

In Beijing, the message was much more nuanced. “Sanctions and pressure cannot fundamentally resolve the issues, and dialogue and negotiation are the best ways,” said Jiang Yu, a spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry.

But she also signalled that UN Security Council measures were now likely. “We believe the Security Council's relevant actions should be conducive to easing the situation and conducive to promoting a fitting solution to the Iranian nuclear issue through dialogue and negotiations,” she said.

Among diplomats and academics in China, the assumption for several months has been that China could eventually support another round of sanctions against Iran rather than remain isolated on the Security Council. However, Beijing is expected to work energetically behind the scenes to water down the sanctions, especially those parts that might affect its own energy interests.


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032190/en

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