2010年4月13日

美中在伊朗问题上“硬碰硬”? Obama to press Hu over Tehran

预计美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)昨日在华盛顿举行的一次倍受期盼的会晤中,会向中国国家主席胡锦涛就制裁伊朗一事施压。美国官员此前曾担心此次会晤无法进行。

今年,中美两国在谷歌(Google)、达赖喇嘛(Dalai Lama)及对台军售等问题上分歧不断,美国一直担心胡锦涛会缺席核安全峰会——这是奥巴马的一次重大标志性活动,并导致中美之间的紧张局面升级。

而实际上,双方如今都在强调合作。华盛顿尼克松中心(Nixon Center)中国项目主任唐安竹(Drew Thompson)表示:"双方都不希望对抗升级到失控的地步:有太多问题有待讨论,而分歧近乎微不足道。"

而只要胡锦涛出席,就会被视为美国外交政策的一次胜利,这一事实说明中美关系仍有很长的路要走。唐安竹表示:"我们已改善了气氛,但尚未解决一些根本的挑战:双方的分歧、互不信任、以及中国政府内的结构性割据,我们必须鼓励在这些问题上增强合作。"

前白宫亚洲事务高级官员、现供职于战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的迈克尔•格林(Michael Green)称赞奥巴马班子面对中国的愤怒反应没有惊慌——对于美国批准向台湾出售64亿美元的军火、以及奥巴马与达赖喇嘛会晤,中国非常愤怒。奥巴马政府将上述行动从去年推迟至今年。

格林表示:"中国曾打算试一下,看是否能让奥巴马政府做出让步,但美方态度坚定,而中方做出了让步。中国领导人认为目前不是挑战美国领导地位的时机。"

中国政府现已开始讨论制裁伊朗的具体措施,而此前一直不愿迈出这一步。中方还暗示,可能会像美国政府长期要求的那样,允许人民币升值。

在4月1日与胡锦涛通电话时,奥巴马谈到了上述两点,不仅提及伊朗问题,还提到了20国集团(G20)承诺的"平衡且可持续的增长"——这指的是美国敦促中国向着以内需为导向的模式转型。谷歌事件的处理方法有别于上述两大战略要务,奥巴马政府极力避免中国与谷歌之间的争执升级为两国之间的争斗。

美国官员表示,与中国打交道时,他们一直面临如何将尊重中国与立场坚定结合起来的挑战。他们补充道,奥巴马在一次会议中宣称,美国必须"硬碰硬"。

格林补充称,尽管近几十年的惯例一直是,美国总统(上台后)会缓和竞选时在中国问题上的强硬措辞,转向一种更为合作的立场,但奥巴马却反其道而行之,制定的政策与之前辞令几乎一致。

奥巴马政府上台时,决心与为数不多的几个强国和不断崛起的大国发展紧密的合作关系,中国位居其首。但一些分析人士称,对于将外交政策与经济问题结合在一起的新"战略对话"等举措,北京方面视之为一个信号,认为美国新政府愿意在台湾等"核心"问题上让步。

而美国官员则辩称,定期举行会晤的对话机制,为中美关系提供了一种"稳定因素",使双方能够更好地解决台湾和西藏等争议问题。

译者/何黎


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032163


President Barack Obama was yesterday expected to press President Hu Jintao on the issue of sanctions against Iran at an eagerly awaited meeting in Washington that US officials had feared would not take place.

After rifts this year on issues including Google, the Dalai Lama and arms sales to Taiwan, the US had been nervous that Mr Hu would stay away from Mr Obama's showpiece nuclear security summit and that tension with Beijing would increase as a result.

Instead, both sides are now stressing co-operation. "Neither side wanted a confrontation to spiral out of control: there's too much at stake and the disagreements were bordering on petty," said Drew Thompson at the Nixon Center in Washington.

But the fact that Mr Hu's mere attendance is seen as a US foreign policy success is a sign of how far the relationship has to go. "We've improved the atmospherics but we have not solved the underlying challenges: the differences, the mutual mistrust and the structural fiefdoms in the Chinese governments where we have to encourage greater co-operation," said Mr Thompson.

Michael Green, a former top White House official on Asia now at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, credits Mr Obama's team for not panicking in the face of China's angry response to the US's authorisation of $6.4bn (€4.7bn, £4.2bn) to Taiwan in arms sales and Mr Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama – events the administration had delayed from last year.

"The Chinese tried to see if they could get the administration to back off, but the administration held firm and the Chinese backed off," said Mr Green. "The Chinese leadership does not see this as a moment to challenge US leadership."

Beijing has now begun discussions on specific sanctions on Iran, a move it was previously reluctant to make. It has also suggested the renminbi may now be allowed to rise as Washington has long requested.

Mr Obama addressed both points in a telephone conversation with Mr Hu on April 1, bringing up not just Iran but G20 commitments for "balanced and sustain-able growth" – language that refers to the US push for China to move towards a domestic demand oriented model. The Google issue has been handled differently from those two strategic priorities, with the administration keen to avoid the dispute between China and the technology group from degenerating into fight between surrogates.

Officials said their challenge in dealing with China had been to blend respect for China with firmness and added that in one meeting Mr Obama declared the US had to meet "steel with steel".

Mr Green added that while the norm in recent decades had been for US presidents to tone down tough campaign rhetoric about China and adjust to a more co-operative stance, Mr Obama had performed the opposite manoeuvre to arrive at more or less the same policy.

The Obama administration came into office determined to develop close working relationships with a handful of great powers and rising powers, with China at the top of the list. But some analysts argued that Beijing saw steps such as a new "strategic dialogue" combining foreign policy and economic issues as a sign the new administration was willing to give ground on "core" concerns such as Taiwan.

US officials, however, argued that the dialogue's regularly scheduled meetings provided "ballast" for the relationship which en-abled it to come out of the disputes over Taiwan and Tibet in better shape.


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032163/en

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