至少在公众面前，中国政治领导人的权力交接，本应遵循一套精心拟定的流程脚本：争夺中共党内最高职位的长达数月的幕后斗争，将以新一届政治局常委的集体亮相仪式来宣示结果，胜利者将登上主席台，而观众将根据他们的亮相次序，判断出他们的排位。
目前为止的实际情况则远为复杂。雄心勃勃的中共高官薄熙来决定以非常公开化的方式追求权力，随后又在万众瞩目中落马，将形势复杂化。
但官方媒体不久前公告称，薄熙来之妻谷开来和薄家一位雇员因涉嫌故意杀害英国商人尼尔•海伍德(Neil Heywood)被正式提起公诉（海伍德曾是薄家的事务协调人）。这可看做中央政府发出的信号，表明将重回预定脚本。
对谷开来提起公诉表明，中共对于如何处理此案已达成了共识，并准备好了采取下一步行动。美国布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institute)研究中国高层政治的专家李成(Cheng Li)表示：“我预计很快就将有开除薄熙来党籍的公告发出，对他的司法调查程序也将启动。”在他看来，官方媒体的公告也确认了温家宝总理之前的承诺——将以公开透明的方式依法处理谷开来一案。温家宝是政治改革的长期主张者。
薄熙来在今年3月以前担任重庆市委书记。在这座位于中国西部、人口超过3000万的直辖市，他如同一个强大的地方诸侯。“太子党”的身份也增强了薄熙来的权威，他的父亲薄一波是革命家、红军(Red Army)将领、中共八大元老之一。八大元老是中共党内最有权势的长者，他们在20世纪80年代至90年代初期是中国政治的幕后掌控者。
但后来，因为薄熙来的部下、重庆市公安局长王立军逃至邻省省会的美国领事馆，声称与薄熙来关系破裂，并主动表示愿意提供有关薄的情报，薄熙来被解除了重庆市委书记职务以及其他一切党内职务。今年4月，薄熙来和谷开来被拘留。薄熙来被控违反党纪（通常这是指贪污腐败问题），而谷开来据称因涉嫌海伍德被谋杀一案而受到调查。
薄熙来目前仍在党内机关中共中央纪律检查委员会(Discipline Inspection Commission)监控下，并未移交司法部门。分析人士认为，司法部门最有可能以贪污腐败等罪名对薄提起诉讼。
但这将引发其他疑问。著名人权律师浦志强表示：“一个非常奇怪的现象是，对谷开来的指控中并不包含腐败罪名，我担心这可能导致同样不以腐败罪名起诉薄熙来。”
纽约大学(New York University)中国法律专家杰尔姆•科恩(Jerome Cohen)表示，因为中国司法受党控制，对薄熙来夫妇的所有指控及司法程序都将被小心设计，以符合党的利益。
科恩表示，目前中共领导人应已“就如何起诉薄熙来设计好了相关情境”。
他补充称，如果在谷开来一案中加入腐败指控，“就意味着同样必须以腐败罪名起诉薄熙来，而这将损害他的声誉”。
但另一方面，一些政治分析人士认为，如果完全不起诉薄熙来，将为薄的支持者留下空间，他们可能会在几年后尝试让薄卷土重来。
这些疑问中的一些，将在未来几周揭晓答案。中国的一个历史惯例是，一旦政治领导层下定决心，就迅速处理政治敏感案件，有鉴于此，谷开来一案预计将在未来几周内开庭审理，并很快审结。
这将为中国共产党第十八次全国代表大会扫清障碍，对薄熙来命运的最终决定，则可能在很久之后才会做出。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001045728
In public at least, China’s political leadership transition was supposed to follow a carefully crafted script. Months of behind-the-scenes struggles over the top jobs in the Communist party were to be crowned with a ceremony that would see the victors walk on to a stage and the audience ascertain their ranking from the order of their appearance.
The reality so far, of course, has been much more complicated. The decision of the ambitious politician Bo Xilai to make a very public quest for power and his subsequent and spectacular fall from grace have ensured that.
But with the state media announcement that Gu Kailai, Mr Bo’s wife, and a family aide have been charged with murder in connection with the death of Neil Heywood, a British businessman who worked as a fixer for the family, Beijing has signalled that things are back on script.
With Ms Gu’s indictment, the party is showing that it has reached consensus over how to deal with the case and is ready to move ahead. “I expect an announcement very soon that Bo Xilai will be kicked out of the party and a legal process will be started for him as well,” says Cheng Li, an expert on Chinese elite politics at the Brookings Institute. He also sees the announcement as a confirmation of the promise of Wen Jiabao, premier and long-time proponent of political reforms, that the case will be dealt with in a transparent manner and according to the law.
Until March, Mr Bo ruled in Chongqing, a municipality in western China with a population of more than 30m, like a powerful local lord. He also carried added authority as the “princeling” son of revolutionary Red Army commander Bo Yibo, one of the all-powerful party elders, known as the “eight immortals”, who controlled Chinese politics from behind the scenes in the 1980s and early 1990s.
But Mr Bo was removed as Chongqing party secretary and sacked from his other party posts after his police chief Wang Lijun fled to the US consulate in a neighbouring provincial capital claiming he had had a falling-out with his boss and offering information on Mr Bo. In April, Mr Bo and Ms Gu were detained. He was accused of violations of party discipline – understood to refer to corruption – and she was said to be under investigation in connection with the murder of Mr Heywood.
Analysts say a prosecution of Mr Bo, who is still in the hands of the party-internal Discipline Inspection Commission and not the judiciary, would most likely be on corruption-related charges.
That, however, raises other questions. “One very strange thing is that there are no accusations of corruption against Ms Gu,” said Pu Zhiqiang, a prominent rights lawyer. “I am afraid this could lead to a situation where no corruption charges are raised against Mr Bo either.”
Jerome Cohen, an expert on Chinese law at New York University, says given the party’s control over the judiciary in China, all charges and procedures against the couple will be carefully crafted to serve the party’s interests.
Mr Cohen says that by now the party leadership would “also have concocted a scenario for what Mr Bo is to be accused of”.
Corruption charges in Ms Gu’s trial “would have meant they would have to indict him as well, and that would have besmirched his reputation,” he adds.
But on the other hand, some political analysts believe that not prosecuting Mr Bo at all would open the door for his supporters to try to stage a comeback a few years from now.
Answers to some of these questions are likely to emerge over the coming weeks. As China has a historical record of dealing with politically sensitive cases quickly once the political leadership has made up its mind, the trial is expected to open within weeks and be over soon.
That would then free the way for the 18th party congress to proceed. The final decision over Mr Bo’s fate may well be made much later.
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