中国金融监管者现在看起来像是驾驶着快艇的拖船船长。他们对于如何驾驶中国市场这艘大船朝着理想的方向航行有着正确的直觉，但事实证明这艘船的发动机马力比他们最初想象的更足。
他们的目标是减小银行业的比例，使其在中国金融体系中不再占如此强大的主导地位。官方数据显示，目前银行贷款占到中国企业融资总量的80%，远远高于其他国家（无论是发达国家还是发展中国家）不超过50%的一般水平。
这些监管者精心制定了实现这一目标的计划。但如今，强大的市场力量正推动中国以远高于设想中的速度在这条航线上前行，并且催生极大的新风险。
中国政府想以小心谨慎、循序渐进的方式对金融业进行改革，近几个月来一直在逐步推动这一进程。最引人注目的是，随着6月初以来的两次降息，中国政府已在设定存款和贷款利率方面赋予了银行更大的自由。中国政府仍保证银行享有可观的利差，但比以往有所收窄，这迫使银行逐渐去适应这样一种情况——资金成本实际上也非常重要。
中国政府在企业债券市场上也取得了进展，该市场此前由于发行方面临繁琐的审批流程而长期停滞不前。监管者近来已放松了管制，加快了审批流程，并鼓励发行更多债券。
北京方面取得的成就值得称赞。毕竟，许多观察人士原以为，中国政府不会在2012年采取什么大动作。由于中共目前一心专注于十年一次的领导层换届，人们认为政府基本没有心思进行政策试验。
但与中国金融市场快速变化的步伐相比，中国政府取得的进展就显得很缓慢了。中国金融市场发生的变化，已超出了官方改革议程所涵盖的范围。
银行出售的理财产品就是真正利率自由化的例子。这些理财产品通常是把贷款再包装为短期投资产品，这在几年之前几乎不存在。但到今年第一季度末，理财产品总额达到10.4万亿元人民币，相当于银行存款总量的12%。
银行使用理财产品竞相争夺客户，用比存款利率上限还高的收益率吸引他们。但客户都非常挑剔。许多理财产品的期限短到只有一个月，到期之后投资者就可以转向另一家银行。竞争相当激烈，使得银行的利差降到了最低限度。
若要感受固定收益产品的繁荣盛况，请忽略普通的债券市场，把目光转向信托业。中国的信托公司发放贷款或进行股权投资，然后再把这些打包成固定收益产品卖给客户。
这些信托公司在十年前还默默无闻，如今管理的资产规模超过5.3万亿元人民币，就资产规模而言，信托业今年将令保险业黯然失色。与债券市场的对比结果甚至更令人震惊。信托产品总额大约是在中国的交易所交易的企业债券总规模的20倍。
信托和理财产品的成功很容易理解。在中国，对任何有可能带来合理、安全回报的投资产品，投资者都有着被压抑的需求。由于利率过低，储户已厌倦了把钱存进银行。股市被视为从事内部交易的秘密堡垒，房产价格也在下降。投资者迫切需要新的投资产品。
但信托和理财产品的迅速崛起，也带来了巨大的风险。中国政府鼓励了一种信念，即债务违约几乎是不可能的，因为它可以命令银行为濒临违约的公司纾困，比如今年早些时候的人造纤维制造商山东海龙(Shandong Helon)。许多理财和信托产品在出售时，都带有"债务人不会违约"的隐性担保。投资者可能在毫无准备的情况下遇上糟糕的结果。
还存在市场改革操之过急的系统性风险。中国政府变得谨慎是有理由的。就在十年之前，中国的各家银行实际上是资不抵债。政府必须注入巨额资金帮助银行恢复健康，同时也希望给它们时间站稳脚跟、成为以盈利为导向的机构。
多年以来，中国监管者的态度都极为谨慎，不敢引导金融体系驶向竞争的"惊涛骇浪"。他们最终还是朝着这个目的地驶去，而金融体系就更加迫不及待了。
欧阳德是英国《金融时报》驻北京记者
译者/邢嵬
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001045589
China's financial regulators are beginning to look like tugboat captains on a speedboat. They have the right instincts for steering their vessel – the country's markets – in the desired direction, but the engine is proving more powerful than they at first thought.
Their objective is a smaller banking sector, one that is less dominant in China's financial system. At present, banks account for 80 per cent of corporate financing in China, according to official data, well above the norm of 50 per cent or less in other countries – be they developed or developing.
These regulators have a carefully charted plan to reach that destination. But powerful market forces are now propelling China along this course far more quickly than intended and creating new, dangerous risks in their wake.
Beijing wants to bring change to the financial sector in a careful, step-by-step way and it has nudged this agenda forward in recent months. Most notably, with its two interest rate cuts since the start of June, the government has given banks more freedom to set deposit and lending rates. It still guarantees them a tidy interest margin, but the margin is smaller than before – forcing bankers to get used to a world where funding costs actually matter.
The government has also made progress in the corporate bond market, which was long hobbled by an onerous approval process for issuers. Regulators have recently lightened their touch, fast-tracking approvals and encouraging more bond issuance.
Beijing deserves credit for its accomplishments. After all, many observers had thought 2012 would be a quiet year for government initiatives. With the Communist party consumed by a once-in-a-decade leadership transition, there was supposed to be little appetite for policy experiments.
But Beijing's progress looks slow when set against the rapid pace of change in Chinese financial markets, which is occurring beyond the confines of the official reform agenda.
The wealth management products that banks are selling are an example of real interest-rate liberalisation. These products, which are typically loans repackaged as short-term investment products, barely existed a few years ago. By the end of the first quarter of this year, they were worth about Rmb10.4tn – equal to 12 per cent of total bank deposits.
Banks use these wealth products to fight for customers, luring them with higher yields than they can offer on capped deposit rates. But customers are a picky bunch. Many products expire after as little as one month, at which time investors can switch to another bank. The competition is fierce, leaving banks with the slimmest of interest margins.
To measure the boom in fixed income products, forget the formal bond market and look to the trust sector. Chinese trusts are companies that extend loans or make equity investments, then combine them into fixed-income products for customers.
Barely a blip on the radar a decade ago, these trust companies manage more than Rmb5.3tn today – putting them on track to eclipse the insurance sector in asset size this year. The comparison with bonds is even more striking. Trust products are worth about 20 times more than the total amount of corporate debt traded on China's exchanges.
Understanding the success of trusts and wealth management products is easy enough. There is pent-up appetite in China for any investments promising reasonably good, seemingly safe returns. Savers have grown tired of storing their money in bank accounts with low interest rates. The stock market is seen as a bastion of insider trading and property prices are falling. Investors were hungry for something new.
But the rise of trusts and wealth products also presents serious risks. The government has encouraged a belief that debt defaults are almost impossible by ordering banks to bail out companies on the brink of trouble, such as rayon maker Shandong Helon earlier this year. Many wealth and trust products have been sold with implicit guarantees that debtors will not default. Investors could be in for a nasty surprise.
There is also the systemic risk of market reforms getting ahead of themselves. Beijing has been deliberate for a reason. Just a decade ago, China's banks were in effect insolvent. A huge injection of capital from the state was needed to nurse them back to health and the government wanted to give them time to find their feet as profit-focused institutions.
For years, China's regulators have been supremely cautious about steering the country's financial system into the stormy waters of competition. The regulators are finally heading toward that destination, but the financial system is in a much bigger hurry to get there.
Simon Rabinovitch is the FT's Beijing Correspondent
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