欧洲向中国的“求欢”正朝着一个新的、也更为热切的层面演变。欧元区纾困基金负责人克劳斯•雷格林(Klaus Regling)目前正在北京谋求中国的支持。而就在几天前，法国总统尼古拉•萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)还与中国国家主席胡锦涛通话，以争取中方的支持。他们不应抱过高的期望。
他们将会听到中国的客套话：中国愿意、也有能力提供援助。自从欧洲爆发主权债务危机以来，中国多次表示愿意向欧洲施以“援手”。然而，欧元区国家必须明白，它们将必须要自救。指望“红衣骑士”出手援助可谓大错特错。
要清楚，出于地缘政治方面的原因，一个强大的欧洲总是会受到中国政府的欢迎。同时，作为中国最重要的贸易伙伴，一个财政稳健、繁荣兴旺的欧洲肯定符合中国的利益。当然，像中国这样坐拥3.2万亿美元外汇储备的国家是有能力提供援助的，但尽管它愿意出手相助，也并不是无条件的。
正如中国总理温家宝在2011年大连世界经济论坛(WEF)上所指出的那样，欧盟(EU)必须首先“把自己的事情做好”。当欧元区各国和各党派彼此就如何推进纾困方案争吵不休之际，中国怎么可能支持那些匆忙拼凑而成的纾困方案呢？
事实证明，中国对美元的信心是错误的，它承担不起再犯同样错误的代价。近来欧洲扩大纾困基金规模的协议被视为积极之举，但通过部分担保以“杠杆化”欧洲稳定安排(EFSF)的想法则无法让人放心。这远非EFSF债券的初衷。
从中国国内政治的角度看，用中国的钱为欧盟国家纾困让中国人很难接受。中国的数千万老年人会要求知道：在他们自己还没有一个像样的养老体系的情况下，为何还要援助富裕的欧洲人、让他们早日退休？与累积了巨额外债的美国不同，欧元区整体的外部（负债）状况比较健康。这意味着，只要德国和一些北欧国家乐意出钱，欧元区国家就能够用自己的资金解决主权债务危机。中国人将会质问：如果德国人不愿意掏更多的钱，中国又何必操这份心？
话虽如此，但这并不意味着中国应该袖手旁观。正如中国已经做过的那样，中国将乐于以一种有分寸的方式投资于EFSF债券。如果说欧元区债券应该发行，那么中国也应该投资。就针对欧洲主权债券的任何重大投资而言，安全都是关键，这意味着需要百分百的担保以及国际货币基金组织(IMF)的介入。此外还有许多方式，可以让中国在不承担主权债务风险的情况下提供援助。中国主权财富基金可以购买欧洲财务稳健的非金融及金融企业的股票。中国企业可以向欧元区经济注入数十亿欧元的定向直接投资。
此外，中国还可以提供间接援助。中国政府应该允许人民币对欧元升值，给予欧洲企业更多进入中国市场的机会——这当然需要欧洲方面也有所回报。通过贸易和中国对欧洲的投资，欧元区经常账户情况得到改善，将解放欧洲内部的资金，从而使更多的储蓄流向各国政府。
虽然中国应继续与单个欧洲国家开展双边合作，但中国政府应该与欧元区集体（而非单个国家）谈判金融纾困方案。否则，由于各国对中国举措的态度肯定会有所不同，这可能导致欧洲内部出现不和。
我们要清楚，中国不应给外界留下利用他人不幸牟利的印象。但对中国政府而言，金融决策应建立在金融考量的基础之上。如果中国的帮助未能达到你们的预期，切勿出言责备。中国从未说过它能够将你们从债务泥潭中解救出来——而且如果仅凭中国的力量，它也不会这么做。
本文作者曾担任中国央行货币政策委员会委员
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001041490
Europe’s courtship of Beijing is moving to a new and more intense level. Klaus Regling, the chief of the eurozone bail-out fund is in Beijing discussing possible support. Just a few days ago, French President Nicolas Sarkozy conferred with Chinese President Hu Jintao to win Beijing’s support. They should not hold out their hopes too high.
They will have had a courteous hearing: China is willing and able to help. Since the beginning of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, China has repeatedly expressed its wish to offer “a helping hand” to Europe. eurozone countries, however, have to understand that they will have to save themselves. Expectations for a “red knight” to come riding to the rescue are sorely misplaced.
To be clear, a strong Europe is always welcome by Beijing for geopolitical reasons. Also, as China’s most important trade partner, a financially sound and a prosperous Europe is firmly in China’s interests. Also of course, sitting as it is on a pile of $3,200bn of foreign exchange reserves, China can help, but while it is willing to do so, it is not without conditions.
As premier Wen Jiabao pointed out at the 2011 Dalian World Economic Forum, the European Union has first to put its house in order. When countries and political parties in the eurozone squabble among themselves over how to proceed, how can China support any hastily cobbled together rescue packages?
China’s faith in the US dollar has been proved misplaced, it cannot afford to make the same mistake again. The recent agreement on expanding the scale of the bail-out fund is perceived as positive, but the idea of “leveraging” the European financial stability facility by partial guarantees is not reassuring. That is a far cry from the original design of EFSF bonds.
From the perspective of domestic politics, bailing out EU countries with Chinese money is hard for the Chinese people to accept. The tens of millions of elderly Chinese will demand to know why they should pay for rich Europeans to retire early when they do not have a decent pension system of their own. Unlike America, which has accumulated huge foreign debts, the eurozone as a whole has a healthy external position. This means that eurozone countries can solve their sovereign debt crisis with their own money, as long as Germany and some northern European countries are prepared to foot the bill. The Chinese people will ask: if Germans do not want to contribute more money, why should China bother?
That said, it doesn’t mean China should stay on the sidelines. China would be happy to invest in EFSF bonds in a measured way, as it has already done. If a eurobond should emerge, China should also invest. For any major investment in European sovereign bonds, safety is the key, which means that a 100 per cent guarantee and the involvement of the International Monetary Fund are necessary. Besides, there are many ways to help without exposing China to sovereign debt. Its sovereign wealth funds can buy shares in solid European non-financial and financial companies. Chinese enterprises can inject billions of euros of fixed direct investment into the eurozone economy.
Furthermore, there are indirect ways to help. Beijing should allow the renminbi to appreciate against the euro and give European companies greater access to Chinese markets – which of course needs to be reciprocated. An improved eurozone current account through trade as well as Chinese investment into Europe will free up funding within Europe and allow more savings to be directed towards governments.
Though China should continue its bilateral co-operation with individual European countries, Beijing should negotiate financial rescue packages with the eurozone collective, not individual states. Otherwise, it may sow discord within Europe as the attitudes of individual countries towards Chinese actions are bound to differ.
To be clear, China should not give the impression it is taking advantage of the misfortune of others. But for Beijing, financial decisions should be based on financial considerations. Don’t blame it, if China’s help is short of your expectations. China has never claimed it can save you from the debt dragon – and, on its own, it will not.
The writer is a former member of China’s Central Bank monetary policy committee
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