2012年1月8日

向巴菲特提问?先抢到话筒再说 Q: What Does It Take to Get to the Oracle?

投资者来说,能够在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的股东年会上向沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)提一个问题,简直就是莫大的荣誉。但在2011年,富达投资(Fidelity Investments)神奇地攫取了更多的提问机会。

Bloomberg News
在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股东年会上,巴菲特非常抢手。
显然,这是处心积虑的结果。在自己的地盘上被人使了诈的“奥马哈先知”(Oracle of Omaha)很不满意。现在,他准备翻盘了。

巴菲特说,毫无疑问,他们找到了钻空子的方法。他表示自己并不欣赏富达投资的做法,因为“那不符合召开股东会议的精神”。

巴菲特表示,他还在思索应对之策,可能在5月5日召开下次股东年会时宣布采取新的提问机制。

多年来,成千上万人每年都会赶往美国内布拉斯加州的奥马哈市,参加伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股东年会。因为巴菲特平时不与公司股东或分析师单独举行电话会议和私下会晤,一年一度的股东大会就成了投资者当面接触这位伯克希尔哈撒韦公司董事长兼首席执行长的稀有机会。近几年,每年都有三万多人参加这个“为资本家举办的伍德斯托克音乐节”(Woodstock for Capitalists),而现场50来次的提问机会更是受到很多人的觊觎。

有时候,人们为了争抢麦克风甚至引发混战。三年前,巴菲特曾试图改变这种状况。他制定了随机抽取提问者的规则,在会场不同区域靠近13个麦克风的地方设置抽问点。股东们也可以通过一个记者团提问,这些记者与现场的投资者交相发问。

Illustration by Jeffrey Mangiat for The Wall Street Journal
富达投资是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司最大的外部股东之一,通常都会派出一个庞大的代表团参加股东年会。据知情人士称,在富达投资内部,参加伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股东年会被视为年轻分析师的一次学习机会,甚至对那些希望提高投资眼光的资深投资经理来说也是如此。

年复一年,出席年会的一些富达投资代表对现场提问的水平渐感厌烦,因为很多时候问题都偏到了巴菲特的个人爱好、推荐读物、对学生有何建议之类上。提问机制改革前,一些人更是因为在会场抢不到麦克风而恼怒不已。一位富达投资基金经理回忆起曾经参加过的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股东年会时表示,那简直是一场体力劳动,很多时候还徒劳无功。

抽问方式推出后,富达投资的一些分析师和理财经理开始想方设法增加与巴菲特现场交流的机会。2010年,他们曾试过人群战术,在报名人数较少的抽问点安插更多人手。

但结果收效甚微。据知情人士透露,随后,他们又开始谋划一种在该公司内部号称为“增强版”的策略。

2011年,富达投资派出40多名代表出席股东大会,他们在会场四下散开,到各个抽问点进行报名。据伯克希尔哈撒韦公司表示,大约有500-800人进入了抽问程序。

富达投资的新策略并不算高深,但确实奏效了:投资者总共有27个提问名额,富达投资的代表就获得了六个,占比超过五分之一。按照惯例,拿到麦克风的提问者只需报下自己的姓名和籍贯,无需说明所供职的公司。加上通过记者提出的两个问题,2011年富达投资共获得了54次提问中的八次提问机会。

巴菲特后来才得知富达投资抽到了如此多的提问机会,称这是“异常高的命中率”。

富达投资的一位发言人拒绝就伯克希尔哈撒韦公司和巴菲特置评,但表示,该公司投资部门员工与任何公司会晤都会争取“问合适的问题,以便能够获取用于分析和评估目标公司的充分信息”。富达投资持有价值约40亿美元的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股票,相当于大约2%的股权。

在4月份召开的2011年股东年会上,富达投资的代表向巴菲特及其商业伙伴查理•芒格(Charlie Munger)问到伯克希尔哈撒韦公司持股银行的未来前景,以及他们如何评估一家公司的成长性。富达投资一位资历很深的股票基金经理约耳•提灵何(Joel Tillinghast)则询问了他们对企业资本回报率的看法。约耳•提灵何目前正在撰写一本关于投资的书。

其他一些定期赴奥马哈“朝圣”的投资者表示,想要拿到麦克风也并非那么难,只需提前筹划一下,这是该股东年会不足为道的一个小秘密。在2011年的年会上,纽约投资公司T2 Partners LLC的执行合伙人惠特尼•蒂尔森(Whitney Tilson)和格伦•汤格(Glenn Tongue)在一个提供视频连线的备用待客宴会厅参与了抽问,均成功命中。该宴会厅聚集了数百名迟到或者无法在主会场找到位子的投资者。

蒂尔森过去几年也都获得过提问机会,他注意到有时在备用待客室报名参加抽问的人很少。他表示,自己很久以来一直都在备用待客室参加股东年会,就是“因为备用待客室没那么乱哄哄的,更加舒适一些”。(巴菲特点评道,“他发现了薄弱环节。”)

对于下次的股东年会,巴菲特目前已确定要将投资者的提问机会减少三分之一左右,因为一组华尔街分析师将被加入提问队列。他还表示,伯克希尔哈撒韦公司将采取措施以确保与会者获得提问机会的偶然性。

富达投资的一些员工表示,无论巴菲特推行什么提问机制,他们都会设法寻找对策──当然,前提是不违反规则。巴菲特表示,他不会因为富达投资员工这样的做法而责难他们。他说,“我在他们那么大时,可能也做过同样的事情。”

SERENA NG

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


Among investors, there are few prizes more coveted than the opportunity to ask Warren Buffett a question at Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholders meeting. But this year, Fidelity Investments mysteriously claimed more than its fair share.

Turns out, it was no accident─and the Oracle of Omaha is none too pleased about being outfoxed on his own turf. Now he is turning the tables.

There's no question they figured out how to game the system,' Mr. Buffett says. He said he didn't like Fidelity's ploy because 'it's not in the spirit of the meeting.'

Mr. Buffett says he is still formulating his countermove and is likely to detail a new questioning system before the next meeting on May 5.

For years, thousands of people have flocked to Omaha, Neb., to attend the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. It is one of the few occasions where investors can hear directly from Mr. Buffett, Berkshire's chairman and chief executive, who shuns conference calls and private meetings with individual shareholders or analysts. Attendance has been above 30,000 in recent years at the so-called Woodstock for Capitalists, with many aspiring to ask one of the 50 or more audience questions allowed each year.

Three years ago, Mr. Buffett tried to put an end to footraces to the microphones that at times became scrums. He set rules to pick questioners at random, through drawings held next to 13 microphones in different parts of the auditorium. Shareholders could alternatively send questions to a panel of journalists that would alternate with the crowd in asking them.

Fidelity, one of Berkshire's largest outside shareholders, typically sends a large contingent to the event. The trip is viewed within the firm as a learning experience for younger analysts and even experienced managers who want to glean investing insights, according to people familiar with the matter.

Over the years, some Fidelity employees grew frustrated by the quality of questioning, which often drifted to Mr. Buffett's personal habits, recommended reading, and his advice for students. Others were exasperated by fruitless sprints to auditorium microphones in the old system. 'It was a strain on the legs, and a lot of wasted effort,' recalls a Fidelity portfolio manager who previously took part in the event.

After the raffle system was introduced, a group of Fidelity analysts and money managers began plotting ways to get more face-time with Mr. Buffett. In 2010, they tried to increase their chances of being picked by having multiple people take part in a small number of raffles.

That effort was only moderately successful, so they began plotting what was known internally as the 'enhanced version' of the strategy, according to people familiar with the matter.

This year, more than 40 Fidelity representatives went to the meeting, fanning out and entering raffles held all over the auditorium. Roughly 500 to 800 people entered the drawings, according to the company.

It wasn't rocket science, but Fidelity's plan worked: Representatives from the Boston-based firm got to ask six out of 27 questions allocated to the crowd, or more than one out of five questions. Following the custom of past meetings, those that took the microphone identified themselves by their name and hometown, without mentioning their employer. Two more questions were asked on the firm's behalf by the journalists, getting Fidelity a total of eight out of 54 questions.

Mr. Buffett didn't learn that Fidelity was so prominently featured until later, and termed it 'an unusually high hit rate.'

A Fidelity spokeswoman declined to comment on Berkshire and Mr. Buffett, but said the objective of Fidelity's investment staff when meeting any company is to 'ask the right questions so they can obtain the best information to analyze and evaluate that company.' Fidelity holds about $4 billion of Berkshire shares, or a roughly 2% stake in the company.

At the April meeting, Fidelity representatives asked Mr. Buffett and his business partner Charlie Munger about the outlook for banks Berkshire had stakes in and how they estimate a company's growth. Joel Tillinghast, a longtime Fidelity stock fund manager who is writing a book about investing, asked how they think about companies' returns on capital.

Other regular pilgrims to Omaha say the meeting's dirty little secret is that, with a little planning, it is not that hard to get microphone time. Whitney Tilson and Glenn Tongue, managing partners of New York investment firm T2 Partners LLC, both asked questions this year after taking part in a drawing held in an 'overflow room,' a ballroom with a video link that accommodates hundreds of attendees who arrive late or can't find seats in the main auditorium.

Mr. Tilson, who has also asked questions in previous years, says he noticed some time back that few people in the overflow room signed up for the opportunity. He says he has long watched the meeting from that location simply 'because it's less chaotic and more comfortable.' ('He figured out the weak link,' observes Mr. Buffett.)

For next year's meeting, Mr. Buffett has so far decided the crowd will get roughly a third fewer questions because a panel of Wall Street analysts will be added to the lineup. He also says Berkshire will 'take steps to make sure that the questions from the audience are really by chance.'

Whatever system Mr. Buffett comes up with, some Fidelity insiders say they will look for a way around it─within the rules, of course. Mr. Buffett says he doesn't fault them for trying. 'I might have done the same thing when I was that age,' he says.

SERENA NG
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