兔年已经过去，人们开始转而关注龙年的运势。据说龙在中国是吉祥的象征，但前提是它天性中凶猛的部分能受到抑制。
投资者是否应感到害怕？抑或，神龙会带动股市一飞冲天？
里昂证券(CLSA)船运业分析师、偶尔也客串风水大师的周子诺(Philip Chow)对水晶球进行研究之后，用中国古代风水术对龙年进行了预测。
顺便提一句，去年是艰难的一年。兔子的胆小一定让大多数投资者印象深刻——这种动物很容易受到惊吓，每当有人提到EFSF（欧洲金融稳定安排）这四个字母，它就吓得躲回了洞中。兔年也饱受五行失衡之苦，金火过旺。中国股市表现不佳。
不过，作为12生肖中唯一虚构的动物，龙的秉性更加坚定。另外，龙年缺火，金也不足，大体上应该较为平稳。
不过，龙年上半年似乎运势不佳，龙（2012年天干的“壬”属水，地支的“辰”是生肖的龙，五行中的水属黑色，故这里的龙确切说是“黑水龙”）头一动不动地埋在水里。
夏季的几个月将遭遇酷暑，这意味着上半年市场都将表现平平，最差的局面可能出现在7月。投资者应在5月份抛售离场。
另一个让人不安的消息是，德国总理安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)是木马年（1954年）生人，与水龙年不和。实际上，周子诺预测道，默克尔的龙年运程显示“今年特别不顺”。由此推算，欧元区危机会继续全面加深，有可能在夏季升级。
不过，龙年本质上是转折之年，转变之大、速度之疾正是龙年的特点。
8月应会出现一个拐点，这是龙头出水、直飞冲天的月份。第三季度会出现强劲的反弹。
将成为下一任领导人的习近平的运势，也让我们看到了更大的希望。龙是改朝换代之兆。历史上，许多新的领导人上台前常常“见龙”，并因此得到上天的庇佑。习近平的龙年运程不错——虽失之平淡。即便中国真的要崩盘，也不会是在这一年。
金钱将从东向西流动。预计中国将继续抢购欧元区债券和欧洲资产，资金将继续流向曼哈顿的一套套豪华公寓。美国国债收益率将保持低位。
行业方面，主水、木，也就是说要投资澳门博彩业、航运业、旅游业等与水相关的行业，以及与木相关的农业和时尚业。特别值得关注的是水泥业——刚好是水和土（龙属土）的结合。
中国人有句话说：神龙见首不见尾，这是因为龙的速度很快。到12月份，反弹将会结束，龙年剩余的几个月，龙可能会安静休整。
身穿丝绸褂的周子诺特意强调，里昂证券的这个风水指数，大家看看则已，不可当真。实际上，去年的预测就不太灵。
不过，有心人看到“8月拐点”的预测时，不妨把杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)会议在笔记本里标上一笔。假如本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)宣布进行第三轮量化宽松(QE3)，可能就会改变整个局势。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001042885
With the year of the rabbit drawing to a close, thoughts turn to the prospects for the year of the dragon. Dragons are said to be highly auspicious, provided their natural ferocity can be kept in check.
Should investors be scared? Or do the soaring wings of the mythical beast offer equity markets a flight into the stratosphere?
CLSA’s Philip Chow, shipping analyst and occasional feng shui master, offered up his findings after a look into the crystal ball using the ancient Chinese art of feng shui.
As a quick reminder, last year was tough. Few investors will miss the timidity of the rabbit – an easily frightened animal, who bolted underground at the very mention of the letters EFSF. The year was also burdened by elemental imbalance, with a dangerous excess of fire and metal. Chinese markets performed poorly.
But the dragon – the only mythical beast among the 12 zodiac signs – is made of sterner stuff. What’s more, 2012 in has no fire in its charts at all, and only a touch of metal, making it a generally smoother ride.
However, the first half of the year looks troubling, with the dragon – a black water dragon to be precise – keeping its head firmly underwater.
The summer months will suffer from a scorching amount of heat, meaning the market is set for a lacklustre first six months, and July could see the worst of it. Sell in May and go away.
Another worrisome reading comes for Angela Merkel. The German chancellor is (zodiac-wise) a wooden horse, and is thus unsuited to a water dragon year. In fact, Chow says Merkel’s charts predict a “shocker of a year”. Assume the eurozone crisis continues throughout, perhaps escalating in the summer.
The dragon, however, is essentially a gamechanger, and is characterised by both dramatic turns of direction, and extreme speed.
August should see an inflection point, with the dragon bursting out of the sea and soaring into the sky. The third quarter rally should be a powerful one.
The reading for heir-apparent Xi Jinping offers further hope. Dragons herald a change in emperor. Historically, new leaders would often “see dragons” just before assuming power, and thus have the blessing of the gods. Xi’s charts look fine – if somewhat unspectacular. If China is about to crash, it won’t be this year.
The flow of money is set to head from east to west. Expect China to keep snapping up eurozone bonds and European assets, and expect capital outflows to continue making their way into Manhattan penthouses. Treasury yields will remain low.
As for sectors, it’s all about water and wood. That means load up on water-related sectors like Macao gaming, shipping, tourism, and woody plays in agriculture and fashion. Of particular interest should be cement – a neat mixture of water and earth.
There’s a saying in Chinese – you can never see the dragon’s head and tail at the same time. That’s because it moves so fast. The rally will run out of steam by December, and dragon is likely to rest for the remainder of the lunar year.
The silk-clad Chow is keen to stress that CLSA’s feng shui index is presented with tongue firmly in cheek. Indeed, last year’s predictions were somewhat off.
But those pondering an August inflection point would do well to mark the Jackson Hole address in the diaries. Any announcement of QE3 from Ben Bernanke could be just the catalyst needed to turn things around.
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