当约翰•保尔森(John Paulson)的对冲基金在2009年初购买了近100吨黄金时，保尔森，这位全世界最受尊敬的对冲基金经理之一，他的公开支持对黄金市场而言可谓是一大利好。
如今，保尔森的“一掷千金”似乎更像是一种诅咒。
Paulson & Co目前正处境艰难，这几乎已是人尽皆知的秘密。2011年，其主要基金Advantage Plus的价值缩水了一半左右。
由于该基金的黄金投资具有众所周知的特性，这就给黄金投资者带来了一个问题。这只基金的大部分投资是通过持有交易所交易基金SPDR Gold Trust，而各基金须就持有该ETF的情况递交季度性报告。
既然知道了Paulson & Co持有的黄金规模甚至超过了多家中央银行，并且该公司眼下正艰难度日，因此不难想象，人们开始担心保尔森也许要被迫抛售黄金了。这一幕的确出现过：去年第三季度，Paulson & Co出售了相当于约34吨黄金的ETF份额——当年9月，金价下跌11%。
保尔森因此成为了“仓促变现”交易的象征，这类交易通常令金价承压。毋庸置疑，对被迫变现的担忧——首当其冲要数Paulson & Co——是黄金市场12月份之所以充满不确定性的原因之一，许多投资者如今依然紧张不安。
Paulson & Co并不是唯一一家因自身财务问题而令市场承压的黄金持有者。希腊、西班牙、葡萄牙以及意大利央行共持有3200吨黄金，尽管多数市场观察人士和官员排除了上述央行会将黄金全部抛售的可能性，但毫无疑问，与Paulson & Co一样，这些央行也成为了人们心中的一大隐忧。
就在分析师要对接下来的一年作出预测时，上述问题会对黄金市场产生举足轻重的影响。
看看储金银行和交易机构发布的预测，任何人都会认为，眼下买入黄金正当其时：尽管金价近期下跌，但人们普遍的看法依然是一致看涨。
以伦敦金银市场协会(London Bullion Market Association)的一项年度调查为例，该协会对26名分析师和交易员进行的调查显示，除3人外，其余所有人都预计2012年黄金的平均现货价格将超过目前的每盎司1615美元左右。大多数受访者预测金价将在2000美元之上见顶。
然而，现在或许还没到双脚都跳回黄金市场的时候。虽然分析师表达出普遍的乐观情绪，但平均来看，他们预测金价将跌至每盎司1443美元的低位——比目前的价格低10.9%——而与我交谈过的大部分人都认为，这将发生在今年的前几个月。
在2月中旬之前，投资者无法得知Paulson & Co 2011年第四季度是否抛售了黄金。但这一点几乎无关紧要。在Paulson & Co和其它大型黄金持有者能够果断解决自身问题之前，笼罩在黄金市场上空的阴云也许不会消散。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001042638
When John Paulson’s hedge fund bought almost 100 tonnes of gold in early 2009, the public support from one of the world’s most respected hedge fund managers was a boon for the bullion market.
Now Mr Paulson’s enormous investment seems more like a curse.
It is little secret that Paulson & Co is struggling. Its main fund, Advantage Plus, lost about half its value over the course of 2011.
That creates a problem for gold investors, due to the very public nature of the fund’s gold investment – a large part of which is held through the SPDR Gold Trust exchange traded fund, holdings in which funds must report on a quarterly basis.
Knowing that Paulson & Co holds more gold than many central banks, and that it is struggling, it only takes a short leap of imagination to worry that he might be forced to sell it. Indeed, in the third quarter of last year, Paulson & Co sold ETF shares equivalent to roughly 34 tonnes of gold – and in September the gold price fell 11 per cent.
Mr Paulson has therefore become symbolic of the “dash for cash” trade that has weighed on gold. There is no doubt that fears of forced liquidation – with Paulson & Co at the top of the list – was a cause of uncertainty in December and many investors are still nervy.
Paulson & Co is not the only holder of gold whose financial problems are weighing on the market. The central banks of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy between them hold 3,200 tonnes of gold, and even though most market observers and officials dismiss the possibility of outright sales, there is no doubt that, as with Paulson & Co, they are a cause of concern.
Such woes matter to the gold market as analysts go through the annual rigmarole of forecasting the year ahead.
Anyone glancing at the forecasts being published by bullion banks and trading houses would think now is the time to buy gold: despite the recent price drop, the consensus remains unanimously bullish.
The London Bullion Market Association’s annual survey of 26 analysts and traders, for example, showed that all but three expected gold to average higher than the current spot price of about $1,615 a troy ounce over the course of 2012. The large majority expects a peak above $2,000.
Nonetheless, it may not yet be time to jump back into the gold market with both feet. Despite their general optimism, the analysts on average expect gold to fall as low as $1,443 an ounce – down 10.9 per cent from current prices – and most I have spoken to believe that will happen in the first few months of the year.
Investors will not know until mid-February whether Paulson & Co sold gold in the fourth quarter of 2011. But that is almost insignificant. The pall over the gold market may not lift until it and other large holders of bullion decisively put their woes behind them.
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