2010年8月22日

东南亚低薪制胜 欲与中国一争制造业天下 Linking Up To Compete With China

着生产商在全世界范围内四处寻找成本更低廉的产地,中国不断上升的劳动力成本对其他发展中国家来说是一种机会。

但中国的薪资上涨已经波及到这些新领地中的一部分,并且在一定程度上引起了柬埔寨、孟加拉等国最近的劳资纠纷。

REUTERS
柬埔寨金边一个服装 ,工人们正在工作。东南亚劳动力成本比中国低,但基础设施比较落后。
这一切意味着,这些市场需要做的将不仅是同中国展开薪资竞争。它们将需要升级基本的基础设施和经济中的其他方面,才能够成为中国以外的可行替代选择。

瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)最近对欧美大公司展开的调查发现,只有约五分之一的公司说把采购来源地从中国换为其他国家将是容易办到的。这是因为中国有着扎实的供应商网络和货运基础设施。约90%的公司说,如果要从中国搬迁到其他国家,成本将会非常高昂。

虽然如此,经济学家相信,随着中国的成本越来越高,投资将不可避免地流向其他地区,从而加快这些地区改善供应链和基础设施的工作。

汇丰银行(HSBC)驻香港高级亚洲经济学家范力民(Frederic Neumann)说,15年来,随着投资者为了廉价劳动力而涌入中国,中国差不多是把所有国家都挤在了一边,而现在,随着中国向价值链上游转移,其他国家又有机会趁势进入价值链的较低端。

一个重要例子是东南亚。这个地区人口接近6亿,一度是世界投资热门,直到它在中国面前黯然失色。去年越南工厂工人的平均月薪约为136美元,印度尼西亚约为129美元,远低于中国413美元的平均月薪。

但东南亚也有着巨大的障碍,其中包括司法系统欠发达和腐败问题。而随着当地工人对中国的涨薪有了更多了解、向厂方施压要求加薪,那么成本的螺旋上升可能会比预料的更严重。

香港贸易公司利丰有限公司(Li & Fung Ltd.)总裁乐裕民(Bruce Rockowitz)最近在一次新闻发布会上说,如果说不是所有国家,至少也是多数国家都从中国获取定价指引。尽管如此,利丰公司通过向印尼、越南等地转移业务,还是得以化解了部分成本上升压力。

东南亚好几个国家,包括柬埔寨、越南和印尼,虽然工资比中国低得多,但它们都存在基础设施不足的问题,无法支撑起规模比原来大得多的制造产业。

此外,任何一个单独的东南亚国家都不具备吸收从中国流入的大规模工作机会的实力。

东南亚各国领导人正在积极推进合作计划,希望到2015年可以将各自国家零散的资源整合起来,形成一个统一的市场和生产平台。如果该计划得以完全实现,那么该地区熟练工人在各国间流动的限制性就会更少,关税程序也会有所简化。

不仅如此,东南亚各国在公路与铁路投资方面也取得进展。得益于亚洲开发银行(ADB)及其它机构的共同资助,该地区已建成三大跨国贸易走廊,改善了连接柬埔寨、泰国、越南和老挝的多条高速公路。

东南亚很多公司也为实现企业间的合作目标而努力。有十多个东南亚服装供应商近期达成协议,期望建立柬埔寨等成衣加工公司与泰国或其它邻国原料供应商的合作,从而进一步整合其服装供应链。事实上,这些公司是达成了合作生产商品的协议,以期提供类似中国服装供应商提供的制衣“一条龙”服务,即在同一地区实现采购纱线、布料、纽扣和缝纫等各个环节。

柬埔寨制衣厂商会(Garment Manufacturers Association in Cambodia)主席文舒扬(Van Sou Ieng)说,东南亚地区的远景目标是要实现“一国多省”的运作模式,而不是一个地区十个国家分而治之。他表示,各国尽管差异很大,但我们必须从中国手中争夺更多业务。

该商会成员之一的马来西亚PCCS Group在中国和柬埔寨都有业务。该公司总经理助理Yik Thong Choon说,他们在中国有两个工厂,过去6个月,厂里工人工资飙升了50%左右,由于劳动力稀缺,两个厂子启用的产能现还不足一半。

与之形成鲜明对比的是,该公司在柬埔寨的工厂应征者人数超过其实际需要。这一劳动力供大于求的局面慢慢会得到改变,不过即使日后出现用人紧张的压力,应该也可得到缓解,因为该公司最近正在推动建立与一家泰国布料生产商的合作,以期联手为香港服装零售商业务提供支持,这样就使得该公司有机会利用更大的地区级劳动力市场来完成服装成品。

Patrick Barta / Alex Frangos

(更新完成)
 
 
China's rising labor costs represent an opportunity for other developing countries, as producers scour the globe for cheaper places to make things.

But China's wage increases are already rippling to some of those new frontiers and have contributed to worker unrest recently in countries such as Cambodia and Bangladesh.

All that means these markets will have to do more than compete on wages. They will have to upgrade basic infrastructure and other parts of their economies to be viable alternatives to China.

Only about a fifth of major U.S. and European firms surveyed recently by Credit Suisse said it would be easy to switch sourcing of goods from China to other countries, thanks to China's robust network of suppliers and shipping infrastructure. Roughly 90% said relocating would be very costly.

As China becomes more expensive, though, economists believe investment will inevitably flow to other areas, accelerating work to improve supply chains and manufacturing infrastructure.

'China sort of pushed everyone aside for 15 years' as investors flocked there for cheap labor, says Frederic Neumann, senior Asia economist for HSBC in Hong Kong. Now, he adds, China's move up the value chain 'opens up room again for other countries to jump in at the lower end of the scale.'

A key example is Southeast Asia, a region of nearly 600 million people that was once one of the world's investment darlings until it was eclipsed by China. The average factory worker in Vietnam made about $136 a month last year, in Indonesia, $129 a month, well below the $413 a month in China.

But Southeast Asia also faces enormous hurdles, including underdeveloped legal systems and problems with corruption. There is also the possibility that costs could spiral more than expected as workers learn more about wage gains in China and press for raises.

'Most of the countries, if not all, look to China for pricing direction,' said Bruce Rockowitz, president of Hong Kong-based trading company Li & Fung Ltd. at a recent press conference. Even so, Li & Fung has been able to mitigate some of its rising costs by shifting business to places such as Indonesia and Vietnam.

Several Southeast Asian countries -- including Cambodia, Vietnam and Indonesia -- lack sufficient infrastructure to support much larger manufacturing industries, even though their wages are cheaper than China's.

Individual Southeast Asian countries also lack the scale to single-handedly absorb a massive influx of jobs from China.

Leaders in the region are pressing ahead with plans to stitch together the patchwork of nations into a common market and production platform by 2015. If fully realized, the project will include fewer restrictions on the movement of skilled labor from country to country and streamlined customs procedures.

Southeast Asian countries are also making headway on road and rail investments. Efforts funded by the Asian Development Bank and others have created three major overland trade corridors, with improved highway connections across Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam and Laos.

Many companies are pursuing the same goals on their own. In the garment industry, more than a dozen Southeast Asian suppliers have reached agreements recently to more-closely integrate their supply chains by linking stitching companies in places such as Cambodia with raw-material makers in Thailand or other nearby countries. The companies effectively agree to market goods jointly so that they appear similar to suppliers in China, which often offer all the steps needed to make a whole garment, including access to yarns, fabrics, buttons and sewing, in the same area.

The long-term goal is to make Southeast Asia operate like one country with many states, rather than a region of 10 nations, says Van Sou Ieng, chairman of the Garment Manufacturers Association in Cambodia. 'We have huge differences, but we have to make it happen' to grab more business from China, he says.

One of the companies involved, Malaysia's PCCS Group, has operations in both China and Cambodia. In China, the firm's two factories have seen wages shoot up roughly 50% in the past six months, with labor shortages leaving the factories operating at less than half-capacity, says Yik Thong Choon, a PCCS assistant general manager.

In Cambodia, by contrast, the company gets more job applications than it needs. That will change over time, but any pressures may be eased by the company's recent push to team up with a Thai fabric producer to jointly pitch for business with garment retailers in Hong Kong, allowing it to leverage a bigger regional labor pool to complete a finished product.

Patrick Barta / Alex Frangos
 

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