Agence France-Press / Getty Images
朝鲜政府官员于2009年7月举行会议，纪念金日成逝世15周年。
朝
鲜劳动党预计将在下月召开44年以来最大的一场会议，届时全世界或许会第一次看到有望成为该国下任领导人的金正日第三子金正云(Kim Jong Eun)。但部分朝鲜观察人士认为，这次会议可能会揭开一个更大的意外：朝鲜开始从独裁统治走向集体领导。这次朝鲜劳动党代表大会可能会在9月6日左右开幕，但官方开幕日期一直没有公布。朝鲜的领导人接班过程一直不为多数朝鲜人所知，朝鲜以外的人们更不清楚，而大会的召开，将成为这个漫长过程的一个转折点。
朝鲜领袖金正日的家谱
这次会议是在6月份下令召开的，在某些方面和1980年金正日首次公开露面的那次会议相似。但今年的会议更加少见：上次有数千人出席的党代表大会还是在1966年，而金正日首次相亮的那次党代会规模更小。自朝鲜1948年建国以来，劳动党一共召开了六次党代会。
韩国警察科学研究所(Police Science Institute)朝鲜分析师Yoo Dong-ryul说，如果金正云的名字没有出现在这次会议上，那么他就当不了朝鲜的下任领导人；考虑到金正日身体状况很差，金正云应该会至少加入重要国家机关中的某一个。
金正日已经有好几个月没有出现在视频影像之中。上周五，位于韩国的“朝鲜开放电台”(Open Radio for North Korea)报道说，有两名曾在2008年医治金正日一种类中风疾病的法国医生本月和他一起呆了12天。
美国等国的外交人士相信，过去两年，金正日的权力有所削弱，形成一种真空，让官员们无法确知自己的未来，于是诉诸于朝鲜最极端的孤立、偏执传统。
这导致朝鲜与外界发生一些冲突，比如去年的核试验和今年3月份韩国天安号沉没事件（以韩国为首的国际调查人员已将此事归咎于朝鲜）。今年早些时候，朝鲜还整顿私人市场活动，以排除他们眼中的内部威胁。
Agence France-Press / Getty Images
金正云上学时期的照片，拍摄日期不详
分析人士认为，去年年初金正日就将自己的儿子确定为接班人，就像当年北朝鲜的缔造者金日成确定他为接班人一样。外界视金正日的妹夫为可能辅佐未来接班人的重要人物，他于6月被委任以国防委员会(National Defense Commissio)要职，该委员会是北朝鲜最高权力机构。
不过由于朝鲜的信息封锁，众评论分析人士无法获得更多可以分析的材料。关注该独裁体的国际观察员要做出论断，须根据从北朝鲜官媒空洞无物的论调中透露出的片言只语，或极少数前往中国做生意的朝鲜公民以及与叛逃至韩国者保持联系的消息人士。
小儿子金正云从未在北朝鲜的媒体中曝光。而在北朝鲜之外，人们也只看到过一些他十多年前在一所瑞士私立高中上学时的照片。
韩国和日本的媒体报道称，朝鲜的宣传机构已洗印了金正云数百万张照片，欲分发给普通百姓家庭，他们已经保留了上两代金氏领导人的照片。
金氏家族正试图实现父子传位，这已经是朝鲜观察人士的共识，但有人最近对传位能否成功提出了质疑。他们指出，据信代表金正云的一个宣传办公室近期发生人员变动，另据朝鲜在华贸易商传言，很多人认为如今只有26或27岁的金正云过于年轻，无法执掌大权。
曾写过一本描写北朝鲜战俘营成长经历的自传作者、北朝鲜出逃者姜哲焕(Kang Chol-hwan)，本周在韩国的朝鲜日报(Chosun Ilbo)上撰文称，金正日认为保持其权力的唯一方法就是子承父业，但是能否得到朝鲜劳动党的全体通过值得怀疑。
奥地利维也纳大学(University of Vienna)关注北朝鲜的经济学家兼教授弗兰克(Rudiger Frank)表示，他并不认为北朝鲜会接受金氏家族的第三代领导，因为该国经济现在十分萎靡，有精英人士希望掌权，而普通民众也不会相信为金正云杜撰的极其浮夸的溢美之词。
弗兰克说，我觉得第三代“伟大的领导人”不可靠，这就好像你不可能一直向酒里掺水还能保证其品质不变一样。
法兰克称，朝鲜劳动党有可能建立一个集体领导体制，金正云可以在这个体制中发挥一定的作用，但不是最高统治者。他说这种治理模式在共产主义国家非常普遍。
Evan Ramstad
（更新完成）
不过由于朝鲜的信息封锁，众评论分析人士无法获得更多可以分析的材料。关注该独裁体的国际观察员要做出论断，须根据从北朝鲜官媒空洞无物的论调中透露出的片言只语，或极少数前往中国做生意的朝鲜公民以及与叛逃至韩国者保持联系的消息人士。
小儿子金正云从未在北朝鲜的媒体中曝光。而在北朝鲜之外，人们也只看到过一些他十多年前在一所瑞士私立高中上学时的照片。
韩国和日本的媒体报道称，朝鲜的宣传机构已洗印了金正云数百万张照片，欲分发给普通百姓家庭，他们已经保留了上两代金氏领导人的照片。
金氏家族正试图实现父子传位，这已经是朝鲜观察人士的共识，但有人最近对传位能否成功提出了质疑。他们指出，据信代表金正云的一个宣传办公室近期发生人员变动，另据朝鲜在华贸易商传言，很多人认为如今只有26或27岁的金正云过于年轻，无法执掌大权。
曾写过一本描写北朝鲜战俘营成长经历的自传作者、北朝鲜出逃者姜哲焕(Kang Chol-hwan)，本周在韩国的朝鲜日报(Chosun Ilbo)上撰文称，金正日认为保持其权力的唯一方法就是子承父业，但是能否得到朝鲜劳动党的全体通过值得怀疑。
奥地利维也纳大学(University of Vienna)关注北朝鲜的经济学家兼教授弗兰克(Rudiger Frank)表示，他并不认为北朝鲜会接受金氏家族的第三代领导，因为该国经济现在十分萎靡，有精英人士希望掌权，而普通民众也不会相信为金正云杜撰的极其浮夸的溢美之词。
弗兰克说，我觉得第三代“伟大的领导人”不可靠，这就好像你不可能一直向酒里掺水还能保证其品质不变一样。
法兰克称，朝鲜劳动党有可能建立一个集体领导体制，金正云可以在这个体制中发挥一定的作用，但不是最高统治者。他说这种治理模式在共产主义国家非常普遍。
Evan Ramstad
（更新完成）
The biggest meeting of North Korea's ruling political party in 44 years, expected to be held next month, may give the world its first look at the country's potential next leader, Kim Jong Il's third son Kim Jong Eun. But some North Korea watchers think the meeting may reveal a bigger surprise: a step away from dictatorship to collective rule.
The representatives meeting of the Workers Party of Korea -- likely to begin around Sept. 6, though an official date hasn't been announced -- will mark a turning point in a drawn-out succession process occurring out of view of most North Koreans, let alone the rest of the world.
Any revelations about the secretive regime's future shape will be watched from South Korea, which has lived for decades under martial threats from the North, to the U.S., which recently passed new economic sanctions against the North Korean regime.
The meeting, called in June, appears in some ways similar to the 1980 event in which Kim Jong Il made his public debut. But it's even rarer: The last meeting of party representatives occurred in 1966 with thousands in attendance, while Kim Jong Il's debut occurred at a smaller party congress, six of which have been held since the country's start in 1948.
'If Kim Jong Eun's name doesn't come out in this meeting, he is not going to make it' as the next leader of the country, says Yoo Dong-ryul, a North Korea analyst at the Police Science Institute in South Korea. 'Given Kim Jong Il's poor health, Kim Jong Eun should join at least one of the important state organs.'
Kim Jong Il hasn't been seen in video images for several months. On Friday, Seoul-based Open Radio for North Korea reported that the two French doctors who treated Mr. Kim for a stroke-like illness in 2008 spent 12 days with him this month.
Mr. Kim's grip on power has weakened in the past two years, creating a vacuum that led officials to become uncertain about their future and resort to the regime's most extreme conventions of isolationism and paranoia, diplomats in the U.S. and elsewhere believe.
That resulted in confrontations with outsiders, including a nuclear test last year and March's sinking a South Korean warship, which Seoul-led international investigators have blamed on Pyongyang. Addressing perceived internal threats, the regime clamped down on private market activities earlier this year.
Analysts believe Mr. Kim early last year began positioning his son as his successor, just as he was to his father, North Korean founder Kim Il Sung. Kim Jong Il's brother-in-law, seen as a potential regent for Mr. Kim's son, in June took an important post in the National Defense Commission, considered North Korea's most powerful body.
Yet North Korea's information lockdown gives prognosticators little further information to work with. International observers of its authoritarian regime must base judgments on what information trickles out from the North's often-bombastic official media, the few people allowed to leave the country to do business in China, and informants who are in touch with defectors in South Korea.
The youngest Kim has never been mentioned in the North Korean media. Outside the country, he has been seen publicly only in photographs taken more than a decade ago when he attended a private Swiss high school.
South Korean and Japanese news media have reported that North Korea's propaganda agencies have printed millions of pictures of Kim Jong Eun to be distributed to the homes of ordinary citizens, who already keep photos of the older Kims.
That the family is attempting another generational succession has become accepted wisdom among North Korea observers, but some have recently started to express doubts about the regime's ability to pull it off. They point to a recent personnel exodus in a propaganda office that was believed to be working on Kim Jong Eun's behalf and chatter among North Korean traders in China that the son, at age 26 or 27, is perceived by many people as too young to hold power.
'Kim Jong Il believes that the only way for him to maintain his power is to establish the hereditary succession of his son,' Kang Chol-hwan, a defector who wrote a book about growing up in a North Korean prison camp, wrote in South Korea's Chosun Ilbo newspaper this week. 'But it is doubtful the entire party agrees.'
Rudiger Frank, an economist and professor at the University of Vienna in Austria who follows North Korea, said he doesn't think North Koreans will accept a third generation of Kim leadership because the country's economy is in shambles, its elites want power and common people won't believe a new set of superlatives and myths about another Kim.
'I don't think a third 'great leader' will work,' Mr. Frank said. 'You cannot endlessly pour water into wine and have it still taste good.'
Instead, he said the party is likely to set up a collective leadership structure that may involve the younger Kim but not as a supreme leader, a type of control he said was common in communist countries.
Evan Ramstad
The representatives meeting of the Workers Party of Korea -- likely to begin around Sept. 6, though an official date hasn't been announced -- will mark a turning point in a drawn-out succession process occurring out of view of most North Koreans, let alone the rest of the world.
Any revelations about the secretive regime's future shape will be watched from South Korea, which has lived for decades under martial threats from the North, to the U.S., which recently passed new economic sanctions against the North Korean regime.
The meeting, called in June, appears in some ways similar to the 1980 event in which Kim Jong Il made his public debut. But it's even rarer: The last meeting of party representatives occurred in 1966 with thousands in attendance, while Kim Jong Il's debut occurred at a smaller party congress, six of which have been held since the country's start in 1948.
'If Kim Jong Eun's name doesn't come out in this meeting, he is not going to make it' as the next leader of the country, says Yoo Dong-ryul, a North Korea analyst at the Police Science Institute in South Korea. 'Given Kim Jong Il's poor health, Kim Jong Eun should join at least one of the important state organs.'
Kim Jong Il hasn't been seen in video images for several months. On Friday, Seoul-based Open Radio for North Korea reported that the two French doctors who treated Mr. Kim for a stroke-like illness in 2008 spent 12 days with him this month.
Mr. Kim's grip on power has weakened in the past two years, creating a vacuum that led officials to become uncertain about their future and resort to the regime's most extreme conventions of isolationism and paranoia, diplomats in the U.S. and elsewhere believe.
That resulted in confrontations with outsiders, including a nuclear test last year and March's sinking a South Korean warship, which Seoul-led international investigators have blamed on Pyongyang. Addressing perceived internal threats, the regime clamped down on private market activities earlier this year.
Analysts believe Mr. Kim early last year began positioning his son as his successor, just as he was to his father, North Korean founder Kim Il Sung. Kim Jong Il's brother-in-law, seen as a potential regent for Mr. Kim's son, in June took an important post in the National Defense Commission, considered North Korea's most powerful body.
Yet North Korea's information lockdown gives prognosticators little further information to work with. International observers of its authoritarian regime must base judgments on what information trickles out from the North's often-bombastic official media, the few people allowed to leave the country to do business in China, and informants who are in touch with defectors in South Korea.
The youngest Kim has never been mentioned in the North Korean media. Outside the country, he has been seen publicly only in photographs taken more than a decade ago when he attended a private Swiss high school.
South Korean and Japanese news media have reported that North Korea's propaganda agencies have printed millions of pictures of Kim Jong Eun to be distributed to the homes of ordinary citizens, who already keep photos of the older Kims.
That the family is attempting another generational succession has become accepted wisdom among North Korea observers, but some have recently started to express doubts about the regime's ability to pull it off. They point to a recent personnel exodus in a propaganda office that was believed to be working on Kim Jong Eun's behalf and chatter among North Korean traders in China that the son, at age 26 or 27, is perceived by many people as too young to hold power.
'Kim Jong Il believes that the only way for him to maintain his power is to establish the hereditary succession of his son,' Kang Chol-hwan, a defector who wrote a book about growing up in a North Korean prison camp, wrote in South Korea's Chosun Ilbo newspaper this week. 'But it is doubtful the entire party agrees.'
Rudiger Frank, an economist and professor at the University of Vienna in Austria who follows North Korea, said he doesn't think North Koreans will accept a third generation of Kim leadership because the country's economy is in shambles, its elites want power and common people won't believe a new set of superlatives and myths about another Kim.
'I don't think a third 'great leader' will work,' Mr. Frank said. 'You cannot endlessly pour water into wine and have it still taste good.'
Instead, he said the party is likely to set up a collective leadership structure that may involve the younger Kim but not as a supreme leader, a type of control he said was common in communist countries.
Evan Ramstad
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