2012年3月25日

梁振英当选香港特首 修补裂痕任重道远 Hong Kong Elites Select Leung as Leader

振英周日当选为香港新一任特区行政长官,凸显出该前英国殖民地与北京之间越来越紧张的政治关系,以及香港富人与劳工阶层之间越来越大的裂痕。

Associated Press
2012年3月25日,在香港会展中心投票站,梁振英向选举委员会成员招手致意。
在经历了同主要竞争对手唐英年之间相互揭丑的选战之后,警察之子梁振英在香港精英人士的第一轮投票中便赢得这次选举。选举地点在1997年举行香港回归仪式的闹市区会展中心,外面聚集了数百名示威者。

这位58岁的政治家在民意调查中一直保持持续领先,但直到北京在离选举仅剩数日之时暗示他们倾向于梁振英时,他的胜利才算有了十足把握。在那之前,人们不知道梁振英是否会获得当选必需的多数票。如果拿不到多数票,就必须重新进行选举,到时候可能就会有新的候选人加入竞争。

虽然梁振英和唐英年这两位候选人都得到了北京支持,但梁振英被认为同中央领导层有更密切的关系。唐英年则受香港富豪支持,他们控制着香港多数私有土地和大产业。

随着选举之日越来越近,中央政府在选举中的角色变得越来越尴尬,因为唐英年曾被认为是受中央支持的候选人,但一系列丑闻使他在民调中的支持率滑落到只有百分之十几的水平。在前几届选举中,因为都有一个明显领先的候选人,北京也就无需公开自己的想法。

当北京上周通过多次与选委举行会谈的方式介入选举时,香港居民被触到痛处。他们已经越来越在意内地在政治上和经济上施加的影响。近几个月,香港人对来访内地人的怨恨越来越深,指责他们大手笔开支推高房价、在洁净的地铁车厢里吃面条,内地人在港动辄得咎,两地间的关系变得相当紧张。

梁振英在胜选感言中感谢支持者,承诺要做一名"服务市民"的领导人,并将在激烈的选战之后将香港政界和商界团结起来。

但梁振英与内地的密切联系(他曾迫于压力一再澄清自己不是中共党员)是周日抗议活动的一个主题。他曾是一名测量师,后来在政途扶摇直上,1999年成为香港特区行政会议召集人。此外,他多年来一直是中国全国政协常委。


香港科技大学(Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)副教授成名(Dixon Sing)说,北京让梁振英担任特首,可能是为了尽量减少香港可能给中国的一党制带来的政治威胁。成名说,梁振英在政治上是一个极端保守派。

尽管梁振英提出的建造更多公屋以及缩小贫富差距的计划可能为他赢得了公众支持,但香港的商业巨头们却依然对他的民粹主义政纲表示高度怀疑。

相对地,包括亚洲首富李嘉诚在内的商业巨头们一直支持唐英年,这令香港当地居民大为不满,公众认为政府与香港当地商业利益关系过密。唐英年本人就是一位富有实业家之子,他因一系列丑闻失去了公众的支持,这些丑闻包括婚外情、在一处住所违规建造巨大的地下室(这个地下室里似乎还有一个酒窖)。

就这一点而论,梁振英的获胜体现了在一个政府缺乏强大话语权的城市中民意的转向。香港浸会大学(Hong Kong Baptist University)的政治分析人士戴高礼(Michael DeGolyer)说,他不欠房地产开发商任何东西,商业巨头们将不会有太大的能力来抵抗迫使他们让出更多利益的举措。

香港特首选举的独特之处在于,这是在一个拥有一切民主表象的城市中的一次非民主选举。民意调查跟踪候选人的支持率,显示出在选举几周前唐英年的支持率大幅下滑。中国国务院总理温家宝最近说,香港能够选出一个为多数港人所拥护的特首。

梁振英周日的得票率为58%,而最近的民意调查显示他的支持率为39%;唐英年在周日的选举中得票率为24%,而民调显示的支持率为22%;反对党候选人何俊仁周日的得票率为6%,民调显示的支持率为11%。

值得注意的是,在周日的投票中,仅有12%的选委投了弃权票、白票或废票。一般来说,投出这类选票表示不支持任何候选人。而民调却显示,高达21%的受访者对所有候选人都不支持。在上周末举行的模拟民主在线投票中,54%的自荐选民拒绝对候选人做出选择。这次模拟公投由香港大学(University of Hong Kong)组织进行,有近22.3万人参加,规模是主办方估计的五倍。

此外,周日的投票还具有另外一层重要意义,因为五年后的下一届特首选举应该是民主选举,不过香港市民对中央政府是否允许香港进行自由选举持怀疑态度。

中国内地禁止媒体报道这次香港特首选举,不过新浪微博等内地社交媒体网站对此却非常关注。周日下午梁振英当选的消息成为新浪微博的最大热门话题。

内地对香港选举的浓厚兴趣与今年1月对台湾选举兴趣高涨如出一辙。当时,数千名社交媒体用户都在关注台湾民主表决的情况并纷纷做出评论。同样,本月初乌坎村选举也引发了一轮类似的热议。乌坎是中国南方的一个村子,村民在就官员涉嫌强占土地和其它违规行为进行抗议后,获得了民主选举的机会。

当选香港特首的梁振英将不得不面对一系列摆在香港面前的问题,包括污染严重、教育体系过度扩张和全球经济不利因素等。记者出身的政治评论人士Johnny Lau说,香港的经济基本面看起来还是稳健的,但在全球经济放缓的情况下,隐忧正逐渐浮出水面。

Lau说,如果梁振英处理不好与香港企业巨头的紧张关系,香港经济的不确定性就会增加。梁振英将于7月1日接替曾荫权担任香港特首。

国际商业领袖立即对新当选的香港特首梁振英表示支持。花旗集团(Citigroup)亚太区首席执行长鲍史汶(Stephen Bird)说,梁振英的强力胜出搭建了一个做实事的平台,这对香港以及香港在大中华地区和世界舞台上所发挥的作用来说应该是个利好消息。

数百名抗议者在投票地点外高呼口号。一些人步行来到中央人民政府驻香港特区联络办公室,不过这次抗议没有形成气候。周日早间,几十名亲民主选委放弃投票,谴责香港选举搞"小圈子"。

Te-Ping Chen / Chester Yung

(更新完成)

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


The selection Sunday of Leung Chun-ying as Hong Kong's next chief executive highlighted the growing political tensions between the former British colony and Beijing, and the deepening divide between the city's rich and its working class.

Mr. Leung, the son of a policeman, won the vote by Hong Kong's elites on the first ballot after a mudslinging campaign between him and his main opponent, Henry Tang. Hundreds of protesters gathered outside the site of the vote, the same downtown convention center where the British handed over Hong Kong to China in 1997.

The 58-year-old politician was consistently ahead in public-opinion polls, though his victory wasn't assured until Beijing signaled just days before the vote that he was their favored candidate. Until that point, it was unclear whether he would get the majority necessary to win, potentially forcing a rerun of the election with new candidates.

While the candidacies of Messrs. Leung and Tang were supported by Beijing, Mr. Leung was considered closer to the Chinese leadership. Mr. Tang, meanwhile, got the backing of Hong Kong's tycoons, who control most of the city's privately held land and its biggest industries.

The role of China in the race became increasingly awkward as the vote grew closer because Mr. Tang had been considered its favored candidate, but a series of scandals pushed his poll numbers into the low teens. Hong Kong's previous selections had a clear leader, so Beijing didn't need to make its views known.

When Beijing weighed in last week in a series of meetings with electors, it touched a sore spot with Hong Kong residents, who are increasingly sensitive about the influence of the mainland, both politically and economically. China-Hong Kong relations have been particularly strained in recent months amid growing resentment over visiting mainlanders, who are accused of everything from driving up property prices with their big spending to eating noodles on the city's immaculate subway cars.

In his victory speech, Mr. Leung thanked his supporters and vowed to be a leader 'for the people,' working to unite the local political and business community after a very heated campaign.

But his close connection to China─he has been forced to repeatedly deny he is a member of China's Communist Party─was a key subject of Sunday's protests. A trained surveyor, he had a speedy rise through the ranks of power, becoming Hong Kong's cabinet head in 1999. Mr. Leung has also for years been a senior member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, an advisory body to China's parliament.

'Beijing likely put Leung in place to minimize possible political threats that Hong Kong may pose to China's one-party rule,' said Dixon Sing, an associate professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, describing Mr. Leung as 'extremely politically conservative.'

Still, Mr. Leung's plan to build more low-income housing and address the wealth gap likely won him support from the public, though the city's tycoons have remained highly skeptical of him for such populist rhetoric.

Instead, the tycoons, including Asia's richest man, Li Ka-shing, have supported Mr. Tang, angering residents who see the government as being too closely aligned with local business interests. Mr. Tang, himself the son of a wealthy industrialist, lost his popular support in a series of scandals, including an extramarital affair and the illegal construction of a huge basement that appeared to contain a wine cellar, at one of his homes.

As such, Mr. Leung's victory represents a reversal in a city where there hasn't been a strong government voice. 'He doesn't owe the property developers a damn thing,' said Michael DeGolyer, political analyst at Hong Kong Baptist University. 'The tycoons aren't going to have much ability to resist moves to force them to share more of the pie.'

The leadership race was unique in that it was a nondemocratic election in a city with all the trappings of democracy. Public-opinion polls tracked the popularity of candidates, showing Mr. Tang's collapse in the weeks before the election. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said recently that the city should choose a leader who enjoys the 'support of the vast majority of the population.'

Mr. Leung took 58% of the vote Sunday, versus 39% in the most recent polls. Mr. Tang got 24% versus 22% in the polls, and opposition candidate Albert Ho got 6% Sunday versus 11% in the polls.

Notably, in the Sunday vote, just 12% of voters abstained or cast blank or invalid ballots, generally indicating support for none of the candidates, though in the polls, a far higher 21% rejected all the candidates. In a mock democratic online vote over the weekend, 54% of the self-selected voters refused to pick a candidate. The civil referendum, conducted by the University of Hong Kong, recorded nearly 223,000 participants, five times the organizer estimate.

Sunday's vote had added significance because the next chief executive election five years from now is supposed to be democratic, though Hong Kong residents are skeptical that China will allow a free election.

In mainland China, where coverage of the election was banned in the media, there was deep interest in the race on social media sites such as microblogging site Sina Weibo where Mr. Leung's victory was the top trending topic on Sunday afternoon.

The deep interest in Hong Kong's election echoes the surge of interest on the mainland in Taiwan's elections in January, during which thousands of social-media users followed and commented on the island's democratic vote. Likewise, earlier this month, elections in Wukan─the southern Chinese village granted a vote after an uprising over alleged land grabs and other official misdoing─spurred a similar wave of commentary.

As chief executive, Mr. Leung will have to confront a raft of issues currently facing the city, including high levels of pollution, an overstretched education system and global economic headwinds. 'It seems the economic fundamentals of Hong Kong remains solid, but hidden concerns are emerging amid the global slowdown,' said political pundit and former journalist Johnny Lau.

If Mr. Leung can't handle tensions with big business in the city, Mr. Lau said, 'it will add uncertainties to Hong Kong's economy.' The new chief executive takes over from Donald Tsang on July 1.

International business leaders were quick to add their voices of support to the newly selected leader. Mr. Leung's 'strong win' creates a 'real platform to get things done, which should be good for Hong Kong and its role in greater China and the world,' said Stephen Bird, Citigroup's Asia-Pacific chief executive.

Several hundred protesters shouted slogans outside the voting site. Some marched off to the office of the Chinese government's liaison office in Hong Kong, though the movement failed to gather strength. Early in the day, dozens of pro-democracy electors walked out of the vote proceedings, condemning the 'small-circle' nature of the city's elections.

Te-Ping Chen / Chester Yung

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