Andy Wong/Associated Press
重庆市市委书记薄熙来
尽
管中国最高领导层可能要到两年后才会进行换届，但眼下中国官员就已在力争上游，他们当中有些人采取了西方式的公关手段，表明中国领导人可能会推行一种更具民粹主义风格的政治管治。本届全国人民代表大会的召开使得权力竞争有所升温。外界经常把全国人大看做负责批准已有政令的橡皮图章，而且今年的会议日程并不涉及重大新法案或人事变动。
不过，在五年一届、改组中国领导层的共产党全国党代会于2012年召开之前，数千名中国政客仍涌入北京。虽然中国两个最高职位的继任者人选已是呼之欲出，但潜在的候选人仍在以或隐蔽或不那么隐蔽的手段力争获得其他高级职位。
Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg News
聚焦中国未来领导人
二人外号是两门大炮，他们都展开了引人瞩目的宣传攻势，并力求表现得与草根阶层息息相关。举例来说，薄熙来就因为在重庆的"打黑"活动成为了一位英雄式人物。
这两人都渴望跻身中国的最高权力机构──中共中央政治局常委。美国智库机构布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)高级研究员李成说，领导层改组看似遥远，但中国政界人士已经开始采取行动了；在2012年有望争夺最高权力的官员已投身于中国式的政治竞选。
在局外人看来，其结果更多的是在风格上而非政治方针上有所改变。虽然许多中国新的领导人可能看似与前任一样枯燥无趣，但他们当中有些人已经开始尝试公关活动。他们可能为中国政界引入一种新的民粹主义统治风格，而不再像中国此前的领导人一样大多只是技术官僚。
撰写过几本有关中国领导层书籍的李侃如(Kenneth Lieberthal)说，这些官员试图表明自己拥有新鲜的观点，并保证自己能够登上权利阶梯的最高层。
人们很难准确地知道在中国政治的幕后到底在发生些什么，而且中国领导人也很少接受西方媒体采访。但是中国问题观察员说，习近平可能接替胡锦涛成为下一任共产党总书记兼国家主席；副总理李克强可能接替温家宝出任总理。
中央政治局常委的构成则显得更具不确定性。现在该委员会的九名成员中有七人定于2012年退休，只有习近平和李克强能够继任。虽然委员会可能会减为七名成员，但这意味着还有五个空缺需要填补。
现年60岁的薄熙来去年在重庆掀起了打黑风暴，最新官方数据显示，那次行动共抓获了3,348名犯罪嫌疑人。
与此前打黑活动不同的是，此次也有给黑恶势力撑腰的共产党高管落网，其中包括薄熙来领导班子的成员以及警方高官。
在中国腐败被认为是非常严重的问题，因此打黑的成功为薄熙来赢得了人们的欢迎。共产党党报《人民日报》发起的在线民调将他评为"年度人物"，这一结果还用短信的形式发给了重庆的1,300万手机用户。
在上周六的人大会议重庆代表团开放活动上，薄熙来的魅力得到了展示。他迟到了45分钟，身后跟着一群尖叫着试图进入重庆厅的记者。
薄熙来面对的提问大多很友好，不过他为重庆打黑行动进行了强有力的辩护──有些法律分析人士批评重庆打黑更多的是毛泽东式的政治运动，而不是依法执行。薄熙来说，有时针对被告有100多位证人作证，比欧洲或美国法庭的证人要多。
一些观察人士指出，打黑行动无疑会给薄熙来与其前任汪洋抗衡的武器。很多被捕的都曾是汪洋手下的高级官员。
现年54岁的汪洋曾提出"解放思想"的公开呼吁──暗示如果他说了算的话，他将允许更多意识形态上的自由。
今年早些时候，中国媒体普遍转载了最早刊登在《人民日报》旗下一杂志上的有关汪洋的长篇讴歌性文章。文章称，汪洋是由中国经济改革之父邓小平挖掘出来的。
此外还有做派更为传统的领导人，比如低调的中共天津市委书记张高丽。一本有关中国新领导层的书援引张高丽的话说，张高丽想要"多做少说"。他被认为是帮助扭转天津经济命运的功臣，而此前天津在中国最近的蓬勃发展中落在了后面。
中国互联网的崛起使得控制信息变得更加困难，互联网可以更迅速地调动公众舆论，比以往更加强调有效性。
驻北京政治学家墨儒思(Russell Moses)说，接班过程不会是像传统的、朝廷里你死我活的权力斗争，而更多的是取决于接班人的实际能力。
Ian Johnson
（更新完成）
Chinese politicians are jockeying for position ahead of an expected shift in power two years from now, some with Western-style publicity campaigns that suggest China's leaders could bring with them a more populist style of governance.
The jockeying is being spurred by the meeting of the National People's Congress. The legislative body is often seen as a rubber stamp for decisions made elsewhere, and this year's agenda lacks significant new bills or personnel changes.
But the thousands of Chinese politicos are descending on Beijing in advance of a change in power in 2012, when the Communist Party's once-in-five-years congress is held. While the top two jobs are considered spoken for, potential candidates are engaging in subtle and not-so-subtle campaigns for other plum positions.
They include Bo Xilai, Communist Party secretary of the big city of Chongqing, and rival Wang Yang, his predecessor in the job and now governor of southern Guangdong province.
Nicknamed the 'two cannons,' both have pushed showy slogans campaigns and tried to connect with people at the grass roots. Mr. Bo, for example, has launched a crackdown on organized crime that has turned him into a popular hero.
Both men also aspire to a seat in the country's most powerful body, the Standing Committee of the Communist Party's Politburo, China's top policy body. 'The change in leadership might feel remote, but Chinese politicians are already beginning to take action,' says Li Cheng, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank. 'The main contenders for the top positions in 2012 are already engaged in Chinese-style political campaigns.'
For outsiders, the result is likely to be less a change in policy in China than a change in style. While many of China's new leaders are likely to be as bland as their predecessors, some are making tentative stabs at public-relations campaigns. That could herald a new, more populist style of governance in contrast to the largely technocratic bent of China's previous leaders.
'People try to demonstrate they have fresh ideas and warrant being elevated to the highest echelons of the system,' says Kenneth Lieberthal, author of several books on China's leadership.
It's difficult to know exactly what is happening behind the scenes in Beijing, and top Chinese politicians rarely speak with the Western media. But China watchers say current Communist Party leader and head of state Hu Jintao is due to be succeeded by senior Communist Party official Xi Jinping, while Mr. Wen is expected to be succeeded by his lieutenant, Vice Premier Li Keqiang.
The powerful Standing Committee is more uncertain. That group currently has nine members but seven are due to retire in 2012, with only Messrs. Xi and Li remaining. It could also be whittled down to seven members, leaving five open slots.
Over the past year, the 60-year-old Mr. Bo has conducted a campaign against organized crime that has resulted in the arrests of 3,348 people, according to the latest official figure.
In a departure from previous campaigns, those arrested include Communist Party officials who backed the alleged criminals, including members of Mr. Bo's own administration and members of the police force.
These successes have made Mr. Bo widely popular in a country where corruption is seen as a serious problem. He was named man of the year on an online poll conducted by People's Daily, the Communist Party's official newspaper, and sends out text messages to the city's 13 million cellphone users.
His appeal was on display Saturday when the Chongqing delegation had a public meeting at the congress. Mr. Bo arrived 45 minutes late, followed by a gaggle of reporters who squealed and shouted as they all tried to enter the meeting room.
Mr. Bo faced mostly friendly questions but gave a robust defense of the crackdown, which has been criticized some legal analysts as being more of a Maoist-style political campaign than an exercise in the rule of law. 'Sometimes there have been over 100 witnesses' against the accused, Mr. Bo said. 'That's more than you get in European or American courts.'
Some observers note that the campaign is certain to give Mr. Bo ammunition against his predecessor in Chongqing, Mr. Wang. Many of those arrested were senior officials under Mr. Wang.
Mr. Wang, 54, has countered with public calls for 'thought emancipation'-a hint that he would allow more ideological freedom if he had a say.
Earlier this year, Chinese media widely reprinted a long, hagiographic article about Mr. Wang that had originally appeared in a magazine run by the People's Daily. The article claimed that Mr. Wang had been discovered by the father of China's economic reforms, Deng Xiaoping.
Then there are more conventional leaders, such as Zhang Gaoli, the publicity-shy party secretary in the port city-state of Tianjin. Mr. Zhang is cited in a book on China's new leadership as wanting to 'Do more. Speak less.' He is also credited with helping to turn around the economic fortunes of Tianjin, which had been somewhat left behind in the country's recent boom.
The rise of the Internet in China, which makes controlling information more difficult and can more quickly mobilize public opinion, has put a greater premium than before on effectiveness.
'The succession process is not going to be played by the same old game of cutting people's knees out from under them,' said Russell Moses, a Beijing-based political scientist. 'It's more [a question of] of what can you do out in the field.'
Ian Johnson
The jockeying is being spurred by the meeting of the National People's Congress. The legislative body is often seen as a rubber stamp for decisions made elsewhere, and this year's agenda lacks significant new bills or personnel changes.
But the thousands of Chinese politicos are descending on Beijing in advance of a change in power in 2012, when the Communist Party's once-in-five-years congress is held. While the top two jobs are considered spoken for, potential candidates are engaging in subtle and not-so-subtle campaigns for other plum positions.
They include Bo Xilai, Communist Party secretary of the big city of Chongqing, and rival Wang Yang, his predecessor in the job and now governor of southern Guangdong province.
Nicknamed the 'two cannons,' both have pushed showy slogans campaigns and tried to connect with people at the grass roots. Mr. Bo, for example, has launched a crackdown on organized crime that has turned him into a popular hero.
Both men also aspire to a seat in the country's most powerful body, the Standing Committee of the Communist Party's Politburo, China's top policy body. 'The change in leadership might feel remote, but Chinese politicians are already beginning to take action,' says Li Cheng, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank. 'The main contenders for the top positions in 2012 are already engaged in Chinese-style political campaigns.'
For outsiders, the result is likely to be less a change in policy in China than a change in style. While many of China's new leaders are likely to be as bland as their predecessors, some are making tentative stabs at public-relations campaigns. That could herald a new, more populist style of governance in contrast to the largely technocratic bent of China's previous leaders.
'People try to demonstrate they have fresh ideas and warrant being elevated to the highest echelons of the system,' says Kenneth Lieberthal, author of several books on China's leadership.
It's difficult to know exactly what is happening behind the scenes in Beijing, and top Chinese politicians rarely speak with the Western media. But China watchers say current Communist Party leader and head of state Hu Jintao is due to be succeeded by senior Communist Party official Xi Jinping, while Mr. Wen is expected to be succeeded by his lieutenant, Vice Premier Li Keqiang.
The powerful Standing Committee is more uncertain. That group currently has nine members but seven are due to retire in 2012, with only Messrs. Xi and Li remaining. It could also be whittled down to seven members, leaving five open slots.
Over the past year, the 60-year-old Mr. Bo has conducted a campaign against organized crime that has resulted in the arrests of 3,348 people, according to the latest official figure.
In a departure from previous campaigns, those arrested include Communist Party officials who backed the alleged criminals, including members of Mr. Bo's own administration and members of the police force.
These successes have made Mr. Bo widely popular in a country where corruption is seen as a serious problem. He was named man of the year on an online poll conducted by People's Daily, the Communist Party's official newspaper, and sends out text messages to the city's 13 million cellphone users.
His appeal was on display Saturday when the Chongqing delegation had a public meeting at the congress. Mr. Bo arrived 45 minutes late, followed by a gaggle of reporters who squealed and shouted as they all tried to enter the meeting room.
Mr. Bo faced mostly friendly questions but gave a robust defense of the crackdown, which has been criticized some legal analysts as being more of a Maoist-style political campaign than an exercise in the rule of law. 'Sometimes there have been over 100 witnesses' against the accused, Mr. Bo said. 'That's more than you get in European or American courts.'
Some observers note that the campaign is certain to give Mr. Bo ammunition against his predecessor in Chongqing, Mr. Wang. Many of those arrested were senior officials under Mr. Wang.
Mr. Wang, 54, has countered with public calls for 'thought emancipation'-a hint that he would allow more ideological freedom if he had a say.
Earlier this year, Chinese media widely reprinted a long, hagiographic article about Mr. Wang that had originally appeared in a magazine run by the People's Daily. The article claimed that Mr. Wang had been discovered by the father of China's economic reforms, Deng Xiaoping.
Then there are more conventional leaders, such as Zhang Gaoli, the publicity-shy party secretary in the port city-state of Tianjin. Mr. Zhang is cited in a book on China's new leadership as wanting to 'Do more. Speak less.' He is also credited with helping to turn around the economic fortunes of Tianjin, which had been somewhat left behind in the country's recent boom.
The rise of the Internet in China, which makes controlling information more difficult and can more quickly mobilize public opinion, has put a greater premium than before on effectiveness.
'The succession process is not going to be played by the same old game of cutting people's knees out from under them,' said Russell Moses, a Beijing-based political scientist. 'It's more [a question of] of what can you do out in the field.'
Ian Johnson
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