当印度国大党政治家扎拉姆・拉梅什(Jairam Ramesh)在2005年发明"中印度"(Chindia)这个词的时候，对于这两个新兴亚洲强国即将迎来一个睦邻友好的新时代，一些人曾寄予厚望。首先，他们认为，通过日益紧密的经济合作与不断扩大的贸易联系，"中印度"将成为现实。在2005年4月访问新德里期间，对于两国之间的贸易仅为其对外贸易总额的5%，中国总理温家宝曾公开表示遗憾。他呼吁，到2008年将双边贸易额从当时的136亿美元提高至200亿美元，2010年提高到300亿美元。时任印度商业和工业部长卡迈勒・纳特(Kamal Nath)表示，"在两三年内，"中国将取代美国，成为印度最大的贸易伙伴国。他们两人都说中了。2007年，中国取代美国，成为印度最大的贸易伙伴国。到2009年底，中印双边贸易额虽然较2008年的水平下降16%，但仍达到430亿美元。
然而，尽管两国贸易关系蓬勃发展，更广泛的睦邻友好关系却仍遥遥无期。问题根源在于双方未能解决长期存在的边界争端，这种争端曾导致两国在1962年爆发一场短暂但血腥的战争。中国政府宣称，自己拥有与不丹和西藏接壤的印度阿鲁纳恰尔邦9万平方公里土地的主权。与此同时，印度则表示，中国在克什米尔地区占据了印度3.8万平方公里的领土，是巴基斯坦非法割让的。这种公开争议是若干刺激两国关系的因素之一，随时可能在意想不到的领域爆发，让企业和投资者蒙受损失。比如，由于担心战略设施的安全风险，新德里最近拙劣地对中国工人实施入境限制，迫使中国企业暂停在印度承包的发电厂工程，而此类电厂正是印度填补其严重能源不足所需要的。区域内的竞争关系，仍可能让"中印度"的梦想落空。
Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析
译者/功文
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031957
When Jairam Ramesh, a Congress party politician, coined the term Chindia some time in 2005, hopes were running high that a new era of amity was about to dawn between the two emerging powerhouses of Asia. Above all, the argument went, Chindia would come into being through closer economic co-operation and expanding trade ties. During a visit to New Delhi in April 2005, Wen Jiabao, Chinese premier, publicly lamented that trade between them represented only 5 per cent of their combined foreign trade and called for bilateral commerce, then worth just $13.6bn, to reach $20bn by 2008 and $30bn by 2010. Kamal Nath, then India's commerce minister, for his part, suggested that "within two or three years" China would displace the US as India's largest trading partner. Both men were bang on the money. By the end of 2009, two-way trade was valued at $43bn, in spite of a fall of 16 per cent on 2008 levels. China replaced the US as India's largest trading partner in 2007.
Yet, while the trading ties flourish, a broader rapprochement remains distant. That is still hostage to the countries' failure to resolve a longstanding border dispute, the cause of a brief but bloody war in 1962. Beijing claims 90,000 sq km in the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, bordering Bhutan and Tibet. India, meanwhile, says China is occupying 38,000 sq km of its territory in Kashmir, illegally ceded by Pakistan. This open sore one of several causing bilateral irritation,has the potential to flare up in unexpected places. with consequences for business and investors. . New Delhi's clumsy recent restrictions on the import of Chinese skilled labour, for example, amid mutterings about the security risk to strategic installations, has forced Chinese companies to suspend construction of power plants that India needs to plug its crippling energy deficit. Regional rivalry may yet turn the Chindia dream sour.
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