中国投资者不打算第二次上当。中国政府要让饱受重创的股市反弹，不止需要投入3000余万美元和官方的一波造势。
当中国主权财富基金的国内投资机构——中央汇金公司周一宣布，将购买中国四大国有银行的股份、以恢复投资者对它们的信心时，这让人感觉就像2008年的重演。但这一次，投资者的反应截然不同。
3年前，就在雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭后中国股市摇摇欲坠之际，中央汇金宣布了几乎一模一样的声明，刺激上证综指在两天内大涨了18%。
但过了两个月后，沪指又跌破干预前的水平。
直到中国政府出台了规模近6000亿美元的刺激计划，并放松了货币政策，中国的经济前景才明亮起来，市场像坐了火箭般蹿升。
而汇金本周宣布干预消息后，中国投资者的冷淡反应更为合理。周二，内地股市的银行类股上涨2%左右，但上海股市大盘仅微升0.2%。
分析师表示，要想再次提振市场，投资者必须看到货币政策的全面放宽，而不仅仅是由汇金小打小闹地购买股票。
上海咨询公司莫尼塔(CEBM)的策略师Robert Zhang表示：“利润增长将继续放缓，此举并未改变总体的基本面，因此，投资者仍十分谨慎。”
根据交易所披露信息，中央汇金周一共购买了1.97亿元人民币（合3100万美元）的股票，仅占沪市日成交量的0.5%，可谓是杯水车薪。
此次购买对四大行的股权登记状况几乎没有影响，例如，汇金持有的农行股权从40.0254%上升至40.0374%。中国政府已经通过汇金控股这些银行。
但是，按理说，此次干预的意义并不在于规模。汇金承诺未来一年期间将继续买进银行股，就像2008年的做法一样。
而且，中国政府还为汇金此次重返市场大肆造势，这是中国政府试图引导投资者购买股票时惯用的宣传手法。中国证券及银行监管机构的官方报纸《金融时报》在一则报道的标题中宣称，此举“发出多重积极信号”，文中进一步指出，此举表明“政府有意护盘、促使股票市场稳定好转、维持国内金融市场安全稳定”。
然而，投资者和分析师仍然把全部注意力放在以下两个因素上，这两个因素导致中国股市自4月以来下跌了23%、在周一汇金宣布增持消息前收于30个月低点。
首先，尽管中国经济继续保持增长，但已经开始放缓，而美欧问题也给中国上市公司的盈利前景蒙上了一层阴影。根据彭博的数据，沪市的预期市盈率（衡量股市价值的关键指标）为10.8倍，处于历史低点，表明投资者的预期有所下降。
其次，或许也更加重要的是，政府并未表现出放松流动性控制的意向，这使市场得不到使其活跃起来的资金。鉴于通胀在3年高位附近徘徊，分析师称，在确信物价压力减缓之前，中国政府不太可能改变方针。
“随着信贷持续紧缩，地方政府和企业家预计会在二级市场上抛出更多股票，”瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)经济学家陶冬(Dong Tao)说。
他还表示，自2008年以来，出现了一系列结构问题，从政府债务的攀升到房产泡沫的加重，这些将继续造成日益严重的压力。
对中国经济的悲观情绪打击了银行股，投资者担心，在过去3年的信贷狂潮之后，不良贷款将急剧上升。
在香港上市的中资银行股近期遭遇惨痛打击，在香港股市上，外国投资者的影响力远远比在上海股市高。过去2个月，中国银行(Bank of China)的H股已经下跌了30%，而该行A股跌幅为6%。
尽管汇金是在上海股市进行购股，但此举对香港上市股票的影响大得多，因为空头头寸的平仓帮助大幅抬升了股价。中国农业银行领涨，在香港暴涨12.8%，在上海上涨了2%。
汇金或许未能制造2008年那样的市场反弹，但至少向那些卖空中资银行的投资者发出了严厉警告：他们面对一个令人敬畏的对手，那就是政府。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001041118
Chinese investors are not about to be fooled twice. It will take more than $30m and a blast of official cheerleading for the government to turn round the battered stock market.
When Central Huijin, the domestic investment arm of China’s sovereign wealth fund, said on Monday it would buy shares in the biggest state-owned banks to restore confidence in them, it felt like a replay of 2008. But the reaction of investors could scarcely have been more different.
Three years ago, with stocks reeling after the Lehman Brothers collapse, a near-identical announcement by Huijin sparked an 18 per cent two-day rally in the Shanghai market.
Yet a couple of months later, stocks had fallen back below their pre-intervention level.
It was not until the government unveiled an almost $600bn stimulus plan and loosened monetary policy that the economic outlook brightened, lighting a rocket under the market.
Fast forward to the Huijin announcement this week, and the phlegmatic reaction of Chinese investors makes more sense. Bank shares rose 2 per cent or so in the mainland market on Tuesday, but the broader Shanghai index edged up just 0.2 per cent.
Investors need to see a comprehensive relaxation of monetary policy, not just Huijin buying shares around the margins, for the market to get going again, analysts say.
“Profit growth will continue to slow and this hasn’t changed overall fundamentals, so investors are still quite cautious,” says Robert Zhang, a strategist with CEBM, an advisory company, in Shanghai.
According to stock exchange disclosures, Huijin bought Rmb197m ($31m) in shares on Monday, a drop in the ocean at 0.5 per cent of the daily trading volume in Shanghai.
The purchases barely made a dent in the shareholder register of Chinese banks, which were already controlled by the government through Huijin. For example, its stake in Agricultural Bank of China increased to 40.0374 per cent from 40.0254 per cent.
But the size of the intervention was supposed to be beside the point. Huijin committed to keep buying bank shares over the coming year, as it did in 2008.
What is more, its return to the market was trumpeted with the propaganda flair that is customary of the Chinese government when trying to cajole investors into buying shares. The Financial News, official newspaper of the stock market and banking regulatory agencies, proclaimed in a banner headline that the move sent “multiple important signals”. The government intended to “protect the market, stabilise it and promote its recovery”.
For investors and analysts, however, the focus remained squarely on the two factors that have driven the Chinese stock market down 23 per cent since April and to a 30-month closing low on Monday before the Huijin announcement.
First, although China growth has held up, the economy is starting to slow and troubles in the US and Europe are casting a shadow over the profit outlook for listed companies. Reflecting the diminished expectations, Shanghai is trading at 10.8 times forward earnings, a record low for this key gauge of a stock market’s value, according to Bloomberg data.
Second, and perhaps even more important, the government has shown little willingness to ease its grip on liquidity, sapping the market of the cash needed to juice it up. Inflation has been running near a three-year high, and analysts say Beijing is unlikely to change course until it is certain price pressures are abating.
“Local governments and entrepreneurs are expected to offload more stakes in the secondary market as the credit crunch continues,” Dong Tao, economist with Credit Suisse, says.
He adds that a series of structural problems has emerged since 2008, from higher government debt to a more serious property bubble, and these will continue to weigh.
Bank shares have been hit by pessimism over the Chinese economy, with investors worried they will see a sharp rise in non-performing loans after issuing a torrent of credit over the past three years.
The pain has been sharp for China bank shares listed in Hong Kong, where foreign investors play a far bigger role than in the Shanghai market. Bank of China shares in Hong Kong had been down 30 per cent over the past two months, compared with a 6 per cent fall in Shanghai.
Although Huijin made its purchases in Shanghai, the impact on the Hong Kong-listed shares proved much larger as an unwinding of short positions helped spark big gains. Agricultural Bank of China led, rising 12.8 per cent in Hong Kong and 2 per cent in Shanghai.
While Huijin may not have produced the same market rally as in 2008, it has at least delivered a stern reminder to investors betting against Chinese banks that they face a formidable opponent in the form of the government.
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