中国股市正处于一个转折点上。中央汇金公司周一增持中国四大银行股份这一干预举动，如果标志着股市触底反弹，那就证实中国股市是对政府干预时机和轨迹的豪赌。另一方面，如果此后股价横盘整理震荡，或再度下跌，那将是中国股市走向成熟的表现。来自政府的任何强迫行动，都不能让市场克服对于美国/欧盟经济衰退、国内通货膨胀、楼市紧缩和不良贷款上升的恐惧。
就目前而言，后一种结局似乎更有可能。例如，汇金公司斥资6千万元人民币，在公开市场买入中国工商银行(ICBC)在上海上市的股票，起初曾令这只总市值高达13680亿元人民币的股票周二上涨逾4%，领先于大盘。但在收盘时涨幅减少了一半以上，而整个市场呈持平状态。投资者似乎想说：主权财富基金中投公司的国内部门，尽可以寻求增进其资产的价值。但是，政府之手可以通过调整印花税或冻结新股发行等手段，来直接引导股价根本走向的时代已经结束。
毕竟，中国股市已有所成长。一些获批准的机构现在已可利用股指期货和融资融券等手段。而禁售期届满意味着，8月份A股的流通股已占总市值的82%，比三年前的30%大为提高。不到四年前，上海股市的市净率为美国标普500指数的4倍还多，但现在已几乎一致。来自汇金公司的干预如果成功，将代表中国股市倒退一步，退向一个不那么开明的时代：在那个时代，基本面因素也许大声告诉人们"买入"，但没有人胆敢行动，直到政府告诉他们这么做。
Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析
译者/艾卜
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001041116
China's equity market is at an inflection point. If Monday's intervention from Central Huijin to buy shares in the country's four biggest banks proves to mark a bottom for stocks, then the market would be confirmed as a giant bet on the timing and trajectory of government meddling. If, on the other hand, prices keep meandering sideways and downwards from here, it is a sign that the market is maturing. No amount of coercion from the government can overcome fears over US/European Union recession, domestic inflation, a property crunch and rising bad loans.
For now, the latter outcome seems more likely. Huijin's open-market purchases of Rmb60m-worth of Shanghai-listed shares in ICBC, for example, initially sent the Rmb1368bn stock up more than 4 per cent on Tuesday, leading the broader market. But by close the bank's gain had more than halved, while the market was flat. Investors seemed to be saying: the domestic arm of China Investment Corp, the sovereign wealth fund, can look to enhance the value of its assets all it wants. But the days when the arms of the state can seek to direct the fundamental course of equity prices, by tweaking stamp duty or by freezing new issuance, are over.
The market, after all, has done some growing up. Select institutions now have access to index futures, margin trading and short selling. The expiry of lock-ups means that the tradable market capitalisation of A-shares was 82 per cent of the total in August, up from 30 per cent just three years before. Shanghai's price/book multiple, more than quadruple that of the S&P 500 less than four years ago, is now virtually identical. A successful intervention from Huijin would represent a step backwards to a less enlightened age: one in which fundamentals might scream "buy," yet no one actually does so until the state tells them to.
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