直到不久以前，美国、欧洲或日本不会有多少工人花时间考虑，为什么他们挣的工资是中国工人的10倍、20倍甚至30倍。是什么使得一个在美国工厂堆放箱子的工人，挣得数倍于越南或墨西哥工人的工资？
有人可能一厢情愿地想象，他们工作得更卖力，或者换句话说，墨西哥或中国工人懒惰或者缺乏技能。也有人更为接近真实情况，把他们的高工资和高生产率归功于国家的制度优势：司法和教育系统、基础设施以及技术。还有人或许在潜意识中干脆认为，他们的优质生活水平是上天赋予的权利。
情况再也不是这样了。随着新兴经济的数亿工人，尤其是亚洲工人，加入全球劳动大军，他们开启了逐渐拉平收入的缓慢进程。发展中国家正在提高教育、基础设施和技术水平，即便它们在司法和政治制度方面仍然落后。收入差距正在缩小。1990年，以购买力平价计算，中国人均GDP为800美元，而美国为23000美元，相差29倍。根据苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)的数据，去年这一差距缩小至6.2倍。预计到2015年将降至4.3倍。
收入差距的缩小不应使我们感到惊奇。较贫穷的国家正在对产生于工业革命伊始的巨大收入差距进行纠正，在工业革命中，西方国家实现了生产率的空前提高。这种收入差距是一种失常，尽管持续了近200年。对一个希望最大多数的人获得最大幸福的中立观察者来说，这种趋势的逆转是一个好消息。毕竟，数亿人从贫困的大山下爬了出来。
回到当前的现实中，情形看上去就很不一样了。本周，美国参议院通过了一项法案，试图对中国压低人民币汇率施加惩罚。在周二的共和党总统候选人辩论中，最有希望获得提名的米特•罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)指责历届美国领导人“被中国人耍了”。
这些言论反映出，人们对于美国中产阶级“逐渐消失”的现实确实感到恼火。美国失业率仍徘徊在9.1%。美国人口统计局(US Census Bureau)表示，按实际价值计算，美国人的中间工资低于1999年的水平。“美国孩童自然会比父母更富有”这个假定的自然规律已经被推翻。财富向超级富豪的集中，令中产阶级的境遇更加悲惨。为发展中世界数以百万计的人带来机遇的全球化，也切合了全球精英的利益。
有一些办法可以让美国及其它发达国家提高生产率和解决贫富不均，但随意改动人民币汇率不是其一。理由已经反复讲得够多了：
* 许多人们以为产自中国的商品，其实只是在中国组装。亚洲开发银行研究所(Asian Development Bank Institute) 2010年的一份报告发现，一只iPhone手机的批发成本估计为178.96美元，而中国的装配工作在其中仅占6.5美元。大多数制造成本都用于并非在低工资经济体制造的高精密零件，这些零件都产自日本和韩国等高工资国家。
* 自2005年6月人民币首次与美元脱钩以来，人民币兑美元汇率已上升30%。鉴于中国的通胀率不断攀升，人民币实际升值幅度还要更高。而这并未改变贸易格局，对此我们不应感到奇怪。1985年签订《广场协议》(Plaza Accord)后，日元价值在两年内几乎翻了一番，可对日本出口几乎没有什么影响。
* 即使中国出口竞争力下降，就业也不太可能大批流向美国等高工资经济体，而更有可能流向其他低工资国家，如孟加拉国、越南、印尼和墨西哥。
少数攻击中国及其他低工资国家的刻薄话还带有种族主义色彩，这使问题变得更加复杂。最近FT网站上有人问：美国工人怎么竞争得过中国“苦力和奴隶般的劳动者”？这样的帖子并不罕见。使用第一个词语的用意是不言而喻的，第二个词语则带着一些（很可能并不真诚的）对全体受剥削的中国工人的关切。
这种观点是站不住脚的。中国数千万农民工离开乡下，并不是因为他们渴望被剥削，而是因为在城里机会更多。根据RBS的数据，过去20年里，中国制造业工人的平均工资上涨了10倍。与西方工资的差距正在不断缩小。有朝一日差距能否完全消失是另一码事。但是，要求中国加快让人民币升值无论如何都毫无意义。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001041149
Until recently, few workers in America, Europe or Japan spent much time worrying about why they earned 10, 20 or even 30 times what a Chinese worker did. What was it that allowed, say, someone stacking boxes in a US factory to earn multiples of the wage earned by a Vietnamese or Mexican worker?
Some may have fondly imagined that they worked harder or, put another way, that Mexican or Chinese workers were lazy or incompetent. Others, much closer to the mark, may have put their higher wages and productivity down to their country’s institutional advantages: its legal and education system, and its infrastructure and technology. Some, perhaps subconsciously, may simply have considered their superior living standards a god-given right.
Not any more. As hundreds of millions of workers in the emerging economies, especially within Asia, have entered the global workforce, they have begun the slow process of levelling the playing field. Developing countries are improving their standards of education, infrastructure and technology, even if their legal and political institutions still lag. Incomes are narrowing. In 1990, at purchasing power parity, gross domestic product per capita in China was $800 against $23,000 in the US, a differential of 29. By last year that had shrunk to 6.2, according to figures from Royal Bank of Scotland. By 2015 it is expected to narrow to 4.3.
This convergence should not surprise us. Poorer countries are correcting the huge divergence in incomes that occurred at the start of the industrial revolution when western economies made unprecedented strides in productivity. That was an aberration, albeit one that lasted nearly 200 years. For a neutral observer who wishes the greatest well-being for the greatest number of people, the reversal of that trend is good news. After all, hundreds of millions of people have crawled from under the rock of poverty.
Back on planet earth, the view looks very different. This week the US Senate passed a bill that seeks to punish China for holding down its currency. In Tuesday’s Republican debate, Mitt Romney, frontrunner as the party’s nominee, accused former US leaders of having “been played like a fiddle by the Chinese”.
That rhetoric echoes real anger about the “disappearing” US middle class. Unemployment is stuck at 9.1 per cent. The US Census Bureau says median wages are lower in real terms than they were in 1999. The presumed natural order, in which American children would automatically be richer than their parents, has been overturned. The plight of the middle class is made all the more bitter by the concentration of wealth among the super-rich. The globalisation that has uncorked opportunity for millions in the developing world has also served the interests of a global elite.
There are things America and other advanced countries can do to raise productivity and to address inequality. But tinkering with China’s currency is not one of them. The arguments, pretty well rehearsed, include:
* Many items supposedly made in China are just assembled in China. A report by the Asian Development Bank Institute in 2010 found that, of the estimated $178.96 wholesale cost of an iPhone, the value of assembly work in China accounted for only $6.50. Most of the manufacturing cost comprises high-precision components made not in low-wage economies, but in high-wage ones such as Japan and South Korea.
* Since June 2005, when the renminbi was first unpegged, the Chinese currency has appreciated 30 per cent against the dollar. The real rate of appreciation is greater given higher Chinese inflation. We should not be surprised that this has failed to do the trick. The yen virtually doubled in value within two years of the 1985 Plaza Accord, with little impact on Japanese exports.
* Even if Chinese exports do become less competitive, jobs are unlikely to flock to high-wage economies such as the US. Rather they will tend to go to other low-wage ones such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia and Mexico.
To confuse the issue further, a minority of the vitriol against China and other low-wage countries is spiced by racism. A not-untypical post on the FT’s website recently asked how American workers could be expected to compete against Chinese “coolies and slave labour”? Use of the first term speaks for itself. The second suggests a (probably insincere) concern for the lot of the exploited Chinese worker.
That view does not stack up. Migrant workers have left the countryside in their millions, not because they crave exploitation but rather because city life offers greater opportunity. According to RBS, the average manufacturing wage of Chinese workers has increased tenfold in the past two decades. The differential with western wages is narrowing. Whether it ever closes entirely is quite another matter. But demanding China revalue its currency a little faster won’t make a blind bit of difference either way.
没有评论:
发表评论