一些中国高级官员和接近中共领导人的人士表示，中共内部的改革派正试图抓住薄熙来近日被免职的机会，在未来几个月推动政治制度改革。
尽管改革最初可能是尝试性的，但中国总理温家宝及其盟友仍希望在今年晚些时候举行的中共“十八大”前，赢取对改革的支持。在“十八大”上，中国最高层领导中的大多数人将会卸任，中共届时将考虑修改党章。薄熙来的很多前盟友此前强烈反对政治和司法改革。
中国中央政府的一名资深官员表示：“宪政改革的条件几乎已经完全具备，现在是合适的时机了。温家宝将大力推进改革，即使在（明年初）退休以后还会继续。”
前重庆市委书记和中共政治局委员薄熙来被停职，他的妻子也因涉嫌谋杀英国商人尼尔•海伍德(Neil Heywood)被逮捕，这起事件引发了中共执政合法性危机，暴露出领导层内的分歧。但它同时增强了温家宝的影响力。在此之前，温家宝推动民主改革的努力被认为是软弱和低效的。
布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)研究中国精英政治的专家李成说：“在中国围绕宪政的争论中，薄熙来事件是一个转折点。要认为中国能在数月乃至数年内实现宪政，那就太天真了，不过看上去他们会抓住现在这个时刻推动这个进程。”
“温家宝及其改革派赢得了一场战役，但战争还没结束。如果中共想拯救自己，就必须让出部分权力，把自己置于宪法之下。”
一位在法律和司法领域身居要职的中共党员认为，薄熙来倒台是一个分水岭，在此之际一个共识正在形成——甚至连强硬派也加入了这个共识，即中共必须将自身事务置于法律管辖之下。他说：“根本问题是，中国没有真正的规则，党制定法律，但又说党和党员不受法律约束。这是不可持续的。”
尽管中国已历经三十多年快速而成功的经济改革，但它隐秘的政治架构仍同源自苏联的列宁主义架构惊人相似。一位认同温家宝改革思路的资深官员问道：“我们为什么不能借鉴西方民主制度呢？”
“毕竟，马克思是一位西方人，共产主义也来自西方。”
直到薄熙来的政治生命因牵连到谋杀和挑战中央权威而终结前，多数分析人士曾认为，中共已基本实现了“接班”程序的制度化。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001044323
Reformers within the Chinese Communist party are trying to exploit the recent ousting of Bo Xilai by pushing for constitutional and political change in coming months, according to senior officials and people close to party leaders.
While any reforms could be tentative at first, premier Wen Jiabao and his allies are hoping to build support in the run-up to the 18th party congress later this year, at which most of the country’s top leaders will step down and the party will consider revising its constitution. Many of Mr Bo’s former allies argued strongly against political and judicial reform.
“The conditions for political and constitutional reform are almost all in place – now is the right time,” one senior central government official said. “Wen will push very hard for this and will keep pushing even after his retirement [early next year].”
The suspension of Bo Xilai, the former Chongqing party boss and Politburo member, from his official posts and the arrest of his wife in connection with the suspected murder of British businessman Neil Heywood has prompted a crisis of legitimacy for the party and exposed rifts among the leadership. But it has also strengthened the hand of Mr Wen, who was previously seen as weak and ineffectual in his attempts to promote democratic reforms.
“Bo Xilai’s case is a tipping point for the debate over constitutionalism in China. It would be naive to say this will be accomplished in months or even years but this looks like the moment when they will push it,” said Cheng Li, an expert in Chinese elite politics at the Brookings Institution.
“Wen and his reformers have won a battle but the war is not over yet – if the party wants to save itself it must surrender some of its power and place itself under the constitution.”
One well-placed party member working in the legal and judicial sector argued that Mr Bo’s downfall represented a watershed as a consensus builds, even among hardliners, that the party needs to put its affairs under the purview of the law. “The fundamental problem is that there are no real rules in this country, the party makes the laws but then says it and its members are not subject to them,” this person said. “This is unsustainable”
Despite three decades of rapid and successful economic reform, China’s secretive political structure remains strikingly similar to the Leninist framework imported from the Soviet Union. “Why can’t we learn from western democratic systems?” asked one senior official aligned with Mr Wen.
“After all Marx was a westerner and communism comes from the west.”
Before Mr Bo’s spectacular political demise amid allegations of murder and insubordination, most analysts had assumed the party had basically achieved its goal of institutionalising its succession planning.
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