终
于要结束了。第二轮量化宽松（QE2）的帷幕即将落下。回顾往昔，它承受了种种打击，但还是以自己的方式坚持了下来。遗憾也有一些，实际上恐怕还不止"一些"。对于它有用无用，经济学家基本上是各执一词。美联储(Fed)这一债券购买计划将在美东时间周五上午11点（北京时间周五晚上11点整）结束，它可能是防止了双底衰退的发生，但如果没有这个计划双底衰退是不是就一定会发生呢？那就很难讲了。
QE2的绝对赢家相当少，但输家（不注意的人可能会称之为"失败者"）就要多一些。
Getty Images
股市：自贝南克(Ben Bernanke)去年8月27日在杰克逊霍尔发表讲话，承诺实施QE2以来，道琼斯指数上涨24%。这是一个相当明显的赢家。
美国商界：不仅股价飙升，利润也已经稳步上升，而且公司得以借到数额前所未有的资金，利率是20世纪40年代以来最低的。
大宗商品：杰克逊霍尔讲话以来，原油价格上涨30%，金价上涨21%。赢家。
银行：赢得不是那么明显。它们受益于超低的短期利率，但美联储不管在多大程度上压低了更长期利率，都限制了银行的净息差。它们的股票是今年以来市场中表现最差的，不过自杰克逊霍尔讲话以来仍然有14%的涨幅。
输家：
美元：是所有输家当中最明显的。杰克逊霍尔讲话以来，美元指数下跌了10%。
就业：失业率已从2010年8月份的9.6%降至9.1%，方向肯定是对的，但没有谁会误以为就业市场已经繁荣得令人兴奋。
房价：据凯斯-希勒(Case-Shiller)20城房价指数，杰克逊霍尔讲话以来，住房价格已下降6.5%。
新兴市场：它们经历的是大起大落。杰克逊霍尔讲话之后，随着投资者拿着无息资金疯狂投资，新兴市场获得了巨大利益，但在更近的时候，它们又因为增长过快和通货膨胀而陷入困境。上证综合指数自杰克逊霍尔讲话以来上涨了6%，但这主要是因为10天左右以前开始了一轮反弹。而在那之前上证综指自4月底开始下跌了14%。
美国国债：我要大胆地说一句，美国国债非常失败。格罗斯(Bill Gross)不会同意这个说法，但10年期国债收益率已经从杰克逊霍尔讲话前夕的2.48%升至当前的3.15%。
美联储公信力：这方面还没有定论。QE2启动的时候，美联储招致外国官员的大量批评，但随着全球经济继续挣扎，这些批评声音已经平息。美国国内对美联储仍有很多批评，QE2会留下什么影响仍然有待观察。
Mark Gongloff
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
And now, the end is here. QE2 has faced the final curtain. The record shows it took the blows and did it QE2's way.
Regrets, it has a few. Actually, maybe more than a few. Economists are nearly evenly split on its usefulness. The Fed's bond-buying program, which breathed its last at 11:00 a.m. ET, may have prevented a double-dip recession, but good luck proving a counterfactual.
The list of clear-cut winners in QE2 is pretty short, while the list of 'non-winners,' which those less sensitive among us might call 'losers,' is a bit longer.
Winners:
Stocks: The Dow has enjoyed a 24% rally since Ben Bernanke's Aug. 27 speech in Jackson Hole promising QE2. Pretty clearly a winner.
Corporate America: Not only have stock prices soared, but profits have risen steadily, and companies have been able to borrow record amounts of money at the lowest rates since the 1940s.
Commodities: Crude oil is up 30% since Jackson Hole. Gold is up 21%. Winning.
Banks: This one is less clear-cut. They've benefited from super-low short-term rates, but whatever effect the Fed had in keeping longer-term rates down has kept a lid on their net interest margins. Their stocks have been the worst performers in the market this year -- though they're still up 14% since Jackson Hole.
Non-Winners:
The Dollar: The clearest-cut loser of the whole thing. The dollar index is down 10% since Jackson Hole.
Employment: The unemployment rate has fallen from 9.6% in August 2010 to 9.1%, which is certainly a move in the right direction. No one would mistake this for a rousing job boom, however.
Housing: Home prices have fallen 6.5% since Jackson Hole, based on the Case-Shiller 20-city index.
Emerging Markets: They've been on a wild ride, enjoying huge gains after Jackson Hole as investors went crazy with the free money, but more recently struggling with the effects of too much growth and inflation. The Shanghai Composite is up 6% since Jackson Hole, but that's mainly been due to a bounce that started about 10 days ago, following a 14% drop since late April.
Treasury debt: I'm going to go out on a limb and call this one a big loser. Bill Gross would disagree, but the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has risen from 2.48% just before Jackson Hole to 3.15% today.
Fed credibility: The jury's out. There was a lot of criticism of the Fed by foreign officials when QE2 began, but that has quieted down as the global economy has continued to struggle. There's still a lot of criticism of the Fed here at home, and its legacy remains to be seen.
Mark Gongloff
Regrets, it has a few. Actually, maybe more than a few. Economists are nearly evenly split on its usefulness. The Fed's bond-buying program, which breathed its last at 11:00 a.m. ET, may have prevented a double-dip recession, but good luck proving a counterfactual.
The list of clear-cut winners in QE2 is pretty short, while the list of 'non-winners,' which those less sensitive among us might call 'losers,' is a bit longer.
Winners:
Stocks: The Dow has enjoyed a 24% rally since Ben Bernanke's Aug. 27 speech in Jackson Hole promising QE2. Pretty clearly a winner.
Corporate America: Not only have stock prices soared, but profits have risen steadily, and companies have been able to borrow record amounts of money at the lowest rates since the 1940s.
Commodities: Crude oil is up 30% since Jackson Hole. Gold is up 21%. Winning.
Banks: This one is less clear-cut. They've benefited from super-low short-term rates, but whatever effect the Fed had in keeping longer-term rates down has kept a lid on their net interest margins. Their stocks have been the worst performers in the market this year -- though they're still up 14% since Jackson Hole.
Non-Winners:
The Dollar: The clearest-cut loser of the whole thing. The dollar index is down 10% since Jackson Hole.
Employment: The unemployment rate has fallen from 9.6% in August 2010 to 9.1%, which is certainly a move in the right direction. No one would mistake this for a rousing job boom, however.
Housing: Home prices have fallen 6.5% since Jackson Hole, based on the Case-Shiller 20-city index.
Emerging Markets: They've been on a wild ride, enjoying huge gains after Jackson Hole as investors went crazy with the free money, but more recently struggling with the effects of too much growth and inflation. The Shanghai Composite is up 6% since Jackson Hole, but that's mainly been due to a bounce that started about 10 days ago, following a 14% drop since late April.
Treasury debt: I'm going to go out on a limb and call this one a big loser. Bill Gross would disagree, but the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has risen from 2.48% just before Jackson Hole to 3.15% today.
Fed credibility: The jury's out. There was a lot of criticism of the Fed by foreign officials when QE2 began, but that has quieted down as the global economy has continued to struggle. There's still a lot of criticism of the Fed here at home, and its legacy remains to be seen.
Mark Gongloff
没有评论:
发表评论