2010年10月31日

分析:中国挑战美国太空霸权? Beijing looks beyond moon in quest for space station

 

中国将其第二颗探月卫星——嫦娥二号成功传回高分辨率图像视为该国航天领域最新成就。这些图像将用于规划中国拟在2013年进行的首次不载人登月。

但中国航天官员已将目光投向更远的目标。他们上周宣布,到2020年,中国应该拥有自己的载人航天站。

如果获得成功,中国将成为继美国和俄罗斯之后,第三个能够建造空间站的国家。

华盛顿国防情报中心(Center for Defense Information)中国项目主管孔哲文(Eric Hagt)表示,中国的目标是“成为拥有勘探和开发外太空所有权利的国家”。他接着说道:“中国的远大航天抱负有许多原因——威望、国内政治合法性和科技实力。”

然而,这正在加剧西方的担忧。孔哲文表示:“美国觉得中国可能正在挑战其在太空领域的主导地位。”尽管分析师表示,中国航天项目并非旨在全盘接手美国国家航空航天局(Nasa)的努力,但中国在小卫星开发等特定领域已经领先于美国。

中国正在建造能够“悄悄接近”敌国卫星进行侦察、或为其它中国卫星“保驾护航”的微型卫星——这些卫星具有重要的军事意义。

中国人的另一项优势在于,能够让一颗卫星装载三个不同负载——这种技术大幅降低了发射卫星的成本。

这些优势让中国的航天项目成本低于美国,而且在商业上更加可行——而目前美国某些航天项目正因缺乏资金而受到质疑。

哈尔滨工业大学航天学院(School of Astronautics HIT)教授金永德表示:“我们的航天产品越来越受到第三世界国家的欢迎。我们已经向委内瑞拉和巴基斯坦出口了通信卫星。”

但西方观察家更加关心的是,中国将利用其日益增长的航天能力做什么。中国分析人士表示,中国的长期抱负是在月球上建造一个空间站,以推进探索外太空的任务。

中国还希望开发氦等月球资源——这些资源可能帮助解决地球未来的能源需求。

但是正如其它国家的航天项目一样,中国的航天项目中至少有部分是用于军事用途。

美国国防部在其关于中国军力的最新年度报告中表示:“中国正在发展袭击敌国太空资产的能力,加速太空军事化。”

金永德显然深信以传说中的月神命名的嫦娥卫星的浪漫一面。

然而,当谈到嫦娥卫星的使命时,金永德就变得严肃起来。他表示:“(嫦娥卫星必须)精确绘制地月之间所有卫星和航天器的轨道,因此如果有人试图对中国不利时,我们就能够摧毁它们,或者干扰它们的通讯。”

包括日本和印度在内的许多国家正在寻求登上月球。半个世纪之前,前苏联在冷战期间首次实现了登月目标。

译者/何黎

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035282

 

 

China has hailed its latest success in space as Chang’e 2, the country’s second lunar probe, successfully sent back high-resolution pictures that are going to be used to plan the country’s first unmanned moon landing in 2013.

But the officials in charge of Beijing’s space programme have set their sights much further than that. They announced last week that by 2020, China should have its own manned space station.

If it succeeds, it will prove itself to be only the third country, following the US and Russia, capable of building a space station.

Eric Hagt, head of the China programme at the Center for Defense Information in Washington, said China’s aim was to claim “a stake as a nation with full rights to explore and exploit deep space”. He added: “The Chinese have big space ambitions for many reasons – prestige, domestic political legitimacy, and scientific and technological prowess.”

However, this is fuelling concerns in the west. “The US feels like China maybe is taking over its leading role in space,” said Mr Hagt. While analysts say China’s programme is not designed to take over what Nasa, the US space agency, does comprehensively, China has pulled ahead in certain areas, such as the development of small satellites.

China is building micro-satellites that can “sneak up” to enemy satellites to spy on them or act as “bodyguards” of other Chinese ones – capabilities which have great military significance.

Another Chinese strength is the ability to get up to three different payloads on one satellite – a technology that makes launching satellites much cheaper.

These strengths make China’s space programme cheaper and more commercially viable than that of the US – just as some American space programmes have been called into question because of a lack of funding.

“Our space products are becoming ever more popular in third-world countries,” said Jin Yongde, professor-emeritus at the School of Astronautics at Harbin Institute of Technology. “We export communications satellites to Venezuela and Pakistan already.”

But what western observers care more about is what China will use its growing space capabilities for. Chinese analysts say the country’s long-term ambition is to build a space port on the moon to facilitate missions farther out into space.

Beijing also aims to exploit lunar resources such as helium, which could help solve the planet’s energy needs for generations ahead.

But as with other countries’ space programmes, at least part of China’s efforts is aimed at military use.

“China is developing the ability to attack an adversary’s space assets, accelerating the militarisation of space,” the Pentagon said in its latest annual report on China’s military power.

Mr Jin is clearly captured by the poetic side of the Chang’e missions – named after a legendary goddess of the moon.

However, when it comes to defining the tasks, he gets very down to earth. “[Chang’e must] accurately map the orbits of all satellites and spacecraft between here and the moon, so when there is someone hostile towards China, we can destroy or damage them or interfere with their communication,” he said.

A number of countries, including Japan and India, are just seeking to reach the moon, half a century after the Soviet Union first did so during the cold war.

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035282/en

一个伦敦豪宅区的变迁

 

历史的变迁没有减退过伊顿广场的魅力,这个极品住宅区历来是政客、贵族、名流和富豪的热门栖身地。然而,变化在悄然发生着。

伦敦豪华地段的极品地产总是供不应求,某俄罗斯富豪曾乘坐自己的私人飞机专程赶到伦敦购买位于上流住宅区伊顿广场(Eaton Square)的一栋豪宅。很不幸,他抵达时竟被告知:房产已售出。

高端地产代理公司Prime Purchase的总裁娜塔莉・赫斯特(Nathalie Hirst)说,这种情况在伦敦豪华地段竞争激烈的房市中并不少见。

她说:“伊顿广场是举世闻名的居住地,被认为是极品中的极品,其非凡的配套设施及毗邻骑士桥的便利条件意味着即使在房市低潮期,它也能吸引各路买家,无论是英国贵族、俄罗斯垄断集团、美国百万富翁还是中国亿万富翁。”

格罗夫纳(Grosvenor)房产投资公司的主管约翰・克拉克(John Clark)说,尽管房市不甚景气,伊顿广场的房价在金融危机时期仍然保持强劲。格罗夫纳在威斯敏斯特公爵的授权下,负责管理广场的地产。他指出,“市面上供出售的房产数量很有限,因此供不应求。”

阿亚顿威利(Ayrton Wylie)地产代理公司的合伙人谢默斯・威利(Seamus Wylie)认为,伊顿广场是“贝尔格莱夫皇冠上的明珠,在这里住的都是行业老大和搞对冲基金的家伙”。

身着金属灰制服的看门人守在房屋前的台阶上。冬天清晨,街道一片宁谧,等待六十岁的屋主从墨绿色的宾利车里款款出来;也常见到穿着蜜桃色夹克的老妇人,由管家陪着在广场周围散步养生。

广场住宅区的主人总是非富即贵。《纽约时报》1937年5月26日的一篇文章这样描述英国首相间的权力更替:“首相斯坦利・鲍德温和将在本周五上任的准首相纳维尔・张伯伦的家具车,很快将在唐宁街10号与时尚的伊顿广场之间擦肩而过。”

嵌在广场各处的蓝色铭牌显示了它的高贵身份。其中一块是献给爱德华・伍德(Edward Wood)的,他是哈利法克斯市(Halifax)的伯爵,也是甘地暴力不合作运动时代的印度总督兼张伯伦政府的外交大臣;另一块则授予曾在此居住的乔治・皮博迪(George Peabody),他是维多利亚时代的美国银行家与慈善家。约阿希姆・冯・里宾特洛甫在授命希特勒成为纳粹德国外交部长前是驻英国大使,也曾居住于此。当然,这块宝地也不只吸引政客与商人。名演员劳伦斯・奥利弗(Laurence Olivier)、费雯丽(Vivien Leigh)、罗杰・摩尔(Roger Moore)以及作曲家安德鲁・劳埃德・韦伯曾经也都是这里的主人。

广场目前的屋主包括画商查尔斯・萨奇(Charles Saatchi),他与美食写手妻子妮歌拉・劳森(Nigella Lawson)在此拥有一整栋屋子。杰拉尔德・格罗夫纳,第六代威斯敏斯特公爵兼广场大部分不动产的所有者,在这里也有一个家,尽管他绝大多数时间在柴郡的伊顿厅度过。中国地产开发商中国控股有限公司的主席刘鉴雄也被报道以3300万英镑(5000万美元)的价格购下这里一栋带泳池、影院与员工卧房的豪宅。

在花园委员会的年会上,并不是伦敦的每个广场都有资本吹嘘自己的业主与男爵夫人—譬如简・道内(Jane Dawnay)夫人与比肖夫(Bischoff)夫人(劳埃德银行主席温・比肖夫爵士之妻)—过从甚密的。

 

伊顿广场成为众人追逐的对象,部分原因在于它在历史上的战略意义。当年英王乔治四世决定将白金汉宫用作皇宫之时,国王路(King's Road)穿越的地带成为朝拜国王的绝佳所在。1824年,威斯敏斯特第二任伯爵、拥有这块土地绝大部分(即如今贝尔格莱夫、皮姆利科及梅菲尔地带)的理查德・格罗夫纳(Richard Grosvenor)委托建筑大师托马斯・丘比特(Thomas Cubitt)将广场改建成大型联排别墅。

其吸引力是显而易见的:偌大的房子,毗邻斯隆广场、国王路以及切尔西皇家医院的便利条件。正如某要求匿名的住户所言:“我爱死了伊顿广场,原因在于它所处的位置、高品质的花园、照明安全以及门房服务。我很喜爱建筑的整体品质、厚实的墙体、透进房间的光还有它的宁静。我也喜爱门前宽阔的街道。”

这里的户主基本上都是些上了年纪的人,有一定的财富积累,渴望住在这样的地方—当然也有例外。佩特拉・埃克莱斯顿(Petra Ecclestone),一级方程式赛车创办人伯尼・埃克莱斯顿(Bernie Ecclestone)21岁的女儿最近刚搬进一栋四室的豪宅,售价2500万英镑。她的新奢侈品牌Form的办公地点就在伊顿附近。她说:“我喜欢住在伊顿广场。附近各种室内设计商品店很棒,能不断激发我的家装灵感。”而真正的卖点是“对我的四条狗来讲这里棒极了,它们不太吵,这样我就能宁静地入睡”。

然而广场的魅力远不止在建筑本身、网球场及其宁谧的环境。社会评论家、《上流社会青年指南》的作者彼得・约克(Peter York)说:“伦敦的广场总是比街道受欢迎。它们面朝绿地,向内的设计,它们看起来像个私人俱乐部。”在伊顿广场附近长大的心理学家、《富贵病与自私的资本家》的作者奥利弗・詹姆士(Oliver James)则持反面意见:“过去常有一些空负盛名的人住在那里。这很悲哀。”

某位希望匿名的近30岁本地女企业家说:“感觉像在一个团体里。如果你偶然遇到某人(恰巧是邻居),你就会觉得他是我们中的一员。那是种安全感。你知道你们可以自由交谈;对彼此的尊重自然流露。”

这种俱乐部式的亲近感甚至延伸到家庭员工身上,她说:“这里我们中的大多数都有司机。他们相互熟识,给彼此建议,(或是)相互打电话告知交通管制的动向。”

当然即使在社区之内,对于位置的微妙竞争还是存在。克拉克观察说:“北边(由丘比特设计)比南边(由威廉・霍华德・塞斯-史密斯设计)受欢迎一些。北边更开阔点,外墙打了更多持久性粉刷层,公寓也更大。”然而,若是说南北有明确分界线,则有些夸张了。

《地面控制:21世纪城市的恐惧与欢乐》一书的作者安娜・敏顿(Anna Minton)认为,尽管伊顿广场为超级富豪的聚居地,但它并不是一个“隔离区”。“过去十年,伦敦的区域划分两极化很分明:富人的热门地带与穷人的冷门地带”,她说,“伊顿广场一直维持着它黄金热门带的地位。但是那些开放性街道意味着它与那些门禁森严的富豪社区—譬如由Candy Brothers开发的第一海德公园(One Hyde Park),其公寓的窗户具有防弹功能,内部使用净化空气—大为不同。”

敏顿说,它证明“富人(区域)也能拥有睦邻友好的氛围”。当然,这种友好关系是有其限度的。正如有位户主评价的那样:“没有人会来敲门借勺糖。大多数人并不总是待在这里。”

 

观察家们认为,在新威斯敏斯特公爵的管理下,伊顿广场有了变化;他把格罗夫纳家族推到一个更为商业的角色上。格罗夫纳文具公司就在伊顿广场的拐角处,公司主管亨丽埃塔・玛考斯兰(Henrietta McCausland)已经为户主设计晚宴邀请函二十多年了。她说,“格罗夫纳在推广广场方面比过去卖力得多。他们不能干坐在那里守株待兔。”

约克说,“过去它更富有魅力—著名演员与超级富豪比肩而邻。老公爵情愿降低租金把房子租给他喜欢的人,为的就是维持一个与众不同的社群。它原来就是个味道醇厚的大布丁。现在形势不同了,它更加商业化。”

格罗夫纳几乎拥有广场380多套公寓的所有权(其中一些产权在独立法人手上)。它的经营体系很独特,60%的公寓其租期/产权期低于21年,也就意味着惯常的承租人权利在此没有保障。

克拉克指出说:“这种租约到期后,理论上讲他们必须离开,房产与他们毫无关系。”这样的方式填补了出租与高价购买长期租约之间的缺口。这是个“中档规模的产品,租期内租金固定且产权有保障。有些人租下这里,可能是因为他们想在职业生涯期间在伊顿广场有个20年的长期公寓。对有些人来讲,可能因为这里的租约税符合预算,或者因为这样有利于遗产与不动产的规划。”风险是租户很可能把资金都投到了这个房子上,租约到期时才发现无家可归。

广场的许多房产为国外超级富豪所拥有,作为他们在伦敦经商的基地;这些人常常在纽约与香港也拥有地产。有几处房子则属于银行,租来给老员工用。而很多伦敦的业主往往在乡下另有房产。奥利弗・詹姆士认为这对广场的“个性”产生了不利影响,“现在它几乎是个匿名区域了。”

海外财富在伊顿的历史上也不是件新鲜事了。在亨利・詹姆士(Henry James)1904年的小说《金碗》中,伊顿广场是美国大富豪亚当・福佛的居住地;他通过摩天大楼与电梯生意获得数百万资产。依据雅典大学英国研究专业的助理教授安娜・黛丝波托波罗(Anna Despotopoulou)的说法,“福佛通过向自己与家人提供很有社会地位的财产征服了英国。当他和亚历山大大帝、征服了墨西哥的西班牙殖民者荷南多・柯蒂斯联系在一起,他的改变旧世界的欲望就被描述成帝国主义行为。”其地址的象征意义很重要。如黛丝波托波罗所言,“不可估量的财富在他所购下的那些昂贵地产里得到彰显,说明其在财政上所向无敌。”

在作者眼里,如伊顿广场这般声望很高的地段,当时正受到新兴海外资本的觊觎;那会儿主要是美国。然而彼得・约克说,今时已不同往日。“过去,外国人来此是因为他们渴望成为魅力伦敦的一部分。如今,这里只是海外富豪们众多财产中的一部分。与把此处作为长期居所的人们不同,这些外来者并没有同样的公德心。”

(译者:小英)

(本文选自《FT睿》杂志2010年9月号) 

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035150

不能一味向顾客让步 Listening to customers can be bad business

 

不久前,Twitter和Facebook的网民有史以来首次迫使一家大公司的管理层举起了白旗。这一民主对专制的胜利,源自人们对一件事的强烈关注:三个字母到底应该出现在方块里面还是外面。

二十年来,在服装公司Gap的标识中,“G-a-p”三个字母一直放在一个深蓝色的方块里面。但4周前,该公司管理层宣布,三个字母将跳出方块,改为在字母“p”的上方压上一个小的蓝色方块。这一声明掀起了轩然大波,成千上万人在网上抗议。一周后,Gap打了退堂鼓,表示将沿用旧标识。

Gap的新标识较旧标识没有明显改进。而且让人看到管理层听取消费者意见、为迎合消费者喜好而妥协让步,似乎是件好事情。

但所发生的事情根本算不上什么好事。面对只知空谈的抗议大军,一家公司惊慌失措地举手投降,这不是进步,而是软弱。

我们把Gap这件事与普华永道(PwC)做个比较,后者近期也更换了标识。普华永道的新标识与Gap形似,只是更丑陋:三个斜体小写字母,一大堆(而不是一个)小方块散布在字母c上方。新标识的推出过程还是老一套:公司大张旗鼓地展示,高级管理层像往常一样发表蠢话连篇的声明,而后新闻记者和几个Twitter网民(对会计师的关心远远比不上对牛仔裤的关心)像往常一样冷嘲热讽。没什么新鲜的。

普华永道董事长表示:“我们认为,新标识从视觉上突出了PwC,就像我们员工的素质和专业技能突显出他们在普华永道的工作经历一样。”当然,这绝对是胡扯。三个小小的字母和几个方块丝毫体现不了素质或专业技能。

相反,标识并不蕴含实际意义;所有人跟我谈过的关于更换标识背后的想法都是愚蠢的。这是因为,这背后根本就没有什么想法,只不过是有人觉得该换点花样了。

普华永道的管理层显然认为换花样的时机已到,并且知道,任何乱子都会很快消停下来。有朝一日,人们甚至可能会喜欢上恶心的新标识——这里的“喜欢”,是就会计师事务所标识可能的受欢迎度而言。

现在回到Gap这件事上来。

Gap北美区总裁马尔卡•汉森(Marka Hansen)风闻抗议的规模后,很快在《赫芬顿邮报》(The Huffington Post)上发表了一篇文章,为“具备当代色彩和潮流性”的新标识辩护。她的文章堪称企业语言学习者的难得教材,它“生动活泼”、“行文工整”、“意思通畅”。然而,该文最醒目的特色是言不由衷。汉森肯定对她公司的新标识如此不受欢迎感到惊恐,但却表示乐见人们如此“热烈”地关注此事。

汉森同时发布在公司Facebook页面上表示友好的帖子,则更加令人恐怖,因为它试图“咬牙切齿”地说出欢乐的话语:“感谢大家对新标识提的意见!我们知道新标识引发了许多争议,我们很高兴看到人们就此展开热烈的争论!我们喜欢我们的版本,但我们愿意考虑其它想法。请在未来几天里继续关注这一群策群力项目的详细进展。”

但即使采取如此友好的姿态也不管用。网民们继续表达强烈不满,称自己憎恶新标识的设计。10月11日,汉森终于妥协了。

这次的语气更像是黛安娜王妃(Princess Diana)辞世。汉森表示,“消费者(对公司旧标识)倾注了强烈的情感”,并郑重宣布,三个字母最终仍将留在深蓝色方块内。

她不应该举手投降。她让网民看到了自己的胆怯,给其它公司帮了倒忙。由于网民们在这件事上得了逞,其它公司要坚持管理层的管理权,就会变得更加困难。

在消费者用对自己手中的钞票投票时,要听取他们的意见。但公司标识是另一回事,它的设计不应该在Twitter上以民主方式完成。如果公司管理层听任自己被Tweeter上的网民吓倒,他们将失去战斗力,变革将比以往更加艰难,现状将永远维持下去。

译者/汪洋

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035272

 

 

Last week, for the first time ever, the mob on Twitter and Facebook forced the management of a big company into defeat. This victory of democracy over autocracy was scored over something people feel strongly about: whether three letters belong inside or outside a box.

For the past 20 years, the letters G-A-P have resided in a dark blue square, but two weeks ago the management of the clothing company announced that the letters had escaped and that a smaller blue square would henceforth sit above the P. All hell then broke loose. Thousands of people protested online and, a week later, Gap backed down. The big box was going to stay.

The new Gap logo was not obviously an improvement on the old one. And the sight of management listening to customers and accepting humiliation in order to satisfy them seemed like a good thing.

Yet what happened was not really good at all. It isn’t progress when a company panics and surrenders when faced by an armchair army of protesters. It is feeble.

Compare Gap’s experience to that of PwC, which changed its logo two weeks earlier. The new PwC look is an even uglier version of the new Gap effort, with the letters in italicised lower case, and not one, but a whole jumble, of little boxes scattered over the C. This logo was launched old-style, with corporate fanfare and a statement of customary idiocy from senior management, followed by customary sniping from journalists and from a couple of tweeters (people don’t care as much about accountants as about jeans) and that was that.

“We think our new brand expression visually distinguishes PwC in the same way that the quality and expertise of our people differentiates the experience of working with PwC,” said the firm’s chairman. Which is, of course, absolute, total tosh. Three little letters and some squares cannot say anything about quality or expertise at all.

But then logos are a fluffy subject; I have never heard anyone say anything that wasn’t daft about the thinking behind any change. This is because there never is any thinking, save the idea that it’s time to do something different.

PwC’s management evidently judged that time had come, and knows that any fuss will quickly die down. One day people may even become fond of the nasty new look – to the extent to which it is possible to be fond of the logo of an accountancy firm, that is.

Now back to Gap.

Once Marka Hansen, the company’s president for North America, got wind of the scale of the protest, she wrote a piece on The Huffington Post defending the “contemporary and current” new logo. Her post is a marvel for students of corporate language, with its “living and breathing”, its “alignings”, and its “journeys”. But mainly it is remarkable for its disingenuousness. Ms Hansen was surely feeling shock and awe at how badly her new logo had gone down, but claimed to be delighted that everyone felt so “passionate” about it.

The chummy message that she simultaneously posted on the company’s Facebook page was even more frightening for its attempt to get down with the kidz and talk the right chirpy language through gritted teeth: “Thanks for everyone’s input on the new logo! We know this logo created a lot of buzz and we’re thrilled to see passionate debates unfolding! We love our version, but we’d like to see other ideas. Stay tuned for details in the next few days on this crowd sourcing project.”

But even this didn’t work. The mob continued to show its passion by saying it hated the new design and, last Monday, she gave up.

This time the tone was more like when Princess Diana had died. Ms Hansen spoke of the “outpouring of passion from customers” on the company’s old logo and solemnly announced that the letters would stay in the box after all.

She should not have capitulated. By letting tweeters see the whites of her eyes, she has done other companies a disservice. Now that the mob has got its way on this, it is going to be harder for other companies to insist on their management’s right to manage.

Listening to customers is one thing, when they are voting with their wallets. But company logos should not be designed democratically on Twitter. If managers allow themselves to be frightened of the tweeting mob, they will become emasculated, change will be even harder than it ever was, and the status quo will always prevail.

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035272/en

中日美角力东亚峰会 China-Japan dispute overshadows proceedings

 

希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)上周六在越南举行的东亚峰会上与16个政府首脑会晤,本应发出一个强大的信号,表明美国与该地区恢复了接触。

但在抵达河内之际,这位美国国务卿发现自己恰逢中日矛盾死灰复燃,这使得峰会的其它一切黯然失色。一名西方外交官形容称,中国方面突然爆发的激烈言辞,以及在最后一刻取消日本首相和中国总理的正式会谈,无异于一次“伏击”,完全出乎日本外交人士的意料。

中国总理温家宝和日本首相菅直人(Naoto Kan)上周六的确在没有摄像机的场合,进行了短暂的“非正式会晤”。但在那之前,北京方面发出了一个强烈的讯息,取消了两国领导人之间的正式会谈,这本来将是9月初日本在有争议水域拘留一艘中国渔船船长以来,中日领导人的首次正式会谈。

出席峰会的会议代表和分析人士表示,北京方面的愤怒和不满似乎主要集中在一个人身上,即新上任的日本外相前原诚司(Seiji Maehara),他被视为中国问题上的鹰派人士,并支持日本与美国建立更紧密的联系。

中国分析人士表示,北京方面显然已断定,前原诚司是中日关系中的一个障碍,因此自他卸任国土交通大臣、改任外务大臣以来,正采取一切能够采取的行动来拆他的台。

前原诚司是在9月初日方扣留中国渔船船长仅几天后受命出任外相的。这名船长后来获释,但在此之前中日关系已恶化到了至少5年来最糟糕的水平。

亲北京的香港《文汇报》上周六在一篇社评中称,坚持要逮捕那名中国船长的正是前原诚司,社评还称他是一个麻烦制造者,应该被革职,理由是他损害了中日关系。

“前原诚司长期对中国发表不友好言论,采取不友好行动,自那次事件发生以来,他那些不负责任的言论对修补关系没有帮助,”南开大学中日关系专家宋志勇对英国《金融时报》表示。“中国不能向日本建议应该由谁出任其外务大臣,但是,如果要修补中日关系的话,前原诚司就必须改变他的态度。”

与此同时,日本媒体报道的解读是,上周末的事件反映了中国政府对于国内民众对日本看法的紧张程度。

近几周,中国多个城市爆发了反日抗议,北京方面不愿做出任何示弱举动,以免引发示威者将愤怒的矛头转向执政的共产党。

导致北京方面突然发出激烈言辞、并取消温家宝与菅直人会谈计划的,似乎是上周五上午前原诚司与中国外长杨洁篪的会晤。媒体报道援引前原诚司在会后的讲话称,中方已同意举行高层会谈,并就东海有争议的天然气田与日方重启谈判。日本官员后来否认前原诚司说过那样的话。

但中国外交部部长助理胡正跃指责日方就两国外长的商讨“散布不实之词”,从而“破坏了两国领导人在河内会晤的应有气氛”。

胡正跃还提到希拉里与前原诚司上周四在夏威夷举行的会晤,美国国务卿在会晤期间重申了美方的立场,即按照美日签署的条约,美方有义务协助日本防卫上述有争议的岛屿。这些无人居住的岛屿是中日关系紧张的核心原因。

胡正跃表示,日本方面在峰会之前和峰会期间的行动破坏了两国领导人会晤的应有气氛。

与此同时,据中国官方媒体报道,希拉里上周六在河内与中国外长举行了亲切友好的会谈。

译者/何黎

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035279

 

 

Hillary Clinton’s meeting with 16 heads of state at the East Asia summit in Vietnam on Saturday was supposed to be a powerful signal of the renewed engagement of the US with the region.

But on her arrival in Hanoi, the US secretary of state found herself in the midst of a flare-up in smouldering Sino-Japanese relations that eclipsed the rest of the summit. One western diplomat described China’s acrimonious outburst and last-minute cancellation of a formal meeting between the Japanese and Chinese prime ministers as an “ambush” that took Japanese diplomats completely by surprise.

Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, and Naoto Kan, the Japanese prime minister, did get together for a very brief “unofficial meeting” away from the cameras on Saturday. But that was only after Beijing had sent a strong message by cancelling what would have been the first official meeting between the two leaders since a spat that began in early September when Japan detained a Chinese fishing boat captain in disputed waters.

Delegates to the summit and analysts said Beijing’s anger and resentment appeared to be directed mostly at one man: Seiji Maehara, Japan’s newly appointed foreign minister who is regarded as a China hawk and supporter of closer ties with the US.

Chinese analysts said Beijing had clearly identified Mr Maehara as an obstacle in Sino-Japanese relations and was doing everything it could to undermine him since he stepped down as transport minister to take up his post.

His move came just days after the arrest of the Chinese fishing boat captain in early September. The captain was later released but not until Sino-Japanese relations had deteriorated to their lowest level in at least five years.

On Saturday an editorial in Wen Wei Bo, a pro- Beijing newspaper in Hong Kong, said it was Mr Maehara who had insisted on the arrest of the Chinese captain and called him a troublemaker who should be dismissed for harming Sino-Japanese relations.

“Maehara has a long history of unfriendly words and actions towards China and since the incident his irresponsible comments have not been helpful in repairing relations,” Song Zhiyong, an expert in Sino-Japanese relations at Nankai University, told the Financial Times. “It’s not up to China to recommend who Japan should appoint as their foreign minister but Maehara must change his attitude if Sino-Japanese relations are to be repaired.”

Meanwhile, Japanese media reports have interpreted the weekend’s incidents as a reflection of the nervousness of the Chinese government about domestic opinion towards Japan.

Anti-Japanese protests have broken out in cities across China in recent weeks and Beijing is loath to show any weakness that could prompt demonstrators to direct their ire at the ruling Communist party.

The trigger for Beijing’s outburst and cancellation of the planned meeting between Mr Wen and Mr Kan appeared to be a Friday morning meeting Mr Maehara held with his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi. Media reports quoted Mr Maehara afterwards as saying China had agreed to a high-level meeting and to restart talks with Tokyo over disputed gasfields in the East China Sea. Japanese officials later dismissed suggestions he had ever made such a claim.

But Hu Zhengyue, an assistant Chinese foreign minister, accused Japan of “ruining the atmosphere” for a planned Wen-Kan summit by making “false statements” about the foreign ministers’ discussions.

Mr Hu also referred to a meeting between Mrs Clinton and Mr Maehara in Hawaii on Thursday, in which the secretary of state restated the US position that it was bound by treaties with Japan to help defend the disputed uninhabited islands at the heart of Sino-Japanese tensions.

“[Japan’s] actions before and during the summits have damaged the atmosphere between the leaders of the two countries,” Mr Hu said.

Meanwhile, Mrs Clinton’s meeting with the Chinese foreign minister in Hanoi on Saturday was cordial and polite, according to Chinese state media.

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035279/en

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华人斥巨资收购伦敦物业 投资目的呈多元化趋势

http://www.sina.com.cn  2010年10月31日 09:48  中国新闻网

  中新社伦敦10月30日电 题:华人斥巨资收购伦敦物业 投资目的呈多元化趋势

  中新社记者 魏群

  持英国护照的香港商人梁日昌,日前以1300万英镑的高价收购临近伦敦华埠的莎士比利道一栋大型商业物业,创下近年来华人在伦敦个人投资地产成交价之最。

  上世纪八十年代曾在英国留学的梁日昌,回到香港后投身制鞋业,现为香港鞋业总会会长,在中国内地拥有多家工厂,目前年销售额达5亿元人民币。在对记者谈及为何选择在伦敦斥巨资收购物业时,他笑称,目前英镑走势低迷,而英国地产已经触底,选择此时出手正当其时。除临近华埠的那幢商业物业外,他还同时买下伦敦另外两处地产。

  实际上,选择当下时机抢购伦敦地产的华人,已远非梁日昌一人。

  负责完成此项交易的李贞驹律师对记者称,仅最近6个月,其律师行就已完成华人在伦敦置业的交易20件,交易额达1亿2千万英镑。如此之大的成交额,在以前根本无法想象。投资者既有来自上海、温州、北京、广州、南京、杭州等中国内地人,也有香港人及在英华人。

  李律师表示,华人在英置业呈“井喷”态势,除房价较低及汇率因素外,英国政府的鼓励政策也起到推波助澜作用。在经济不景之时,政府鼓励外来者出手英国地产,投资100万英镑(其中25万为购买物业)即可获得永居资格。

  同样在英置业,但投资者的目的却各有不同。

  梁日昌对记者称,目前制鞋业利润很薄,创自己品牌为未来必由之路。而伦敦是世界设计中心,在此地投资物业,目前可以暂时将其出租盈利,将来可作为公司办公用地,或将其抵押贷款,腾出资金打造自己的品牌。

  一位来自中国大陆的李女士,则利用自己学过建筑设计的特长,以独到眼光买下伦敦一些老旧物业,重新设计、装修后再转手,赚取不菲利润。

  另一位在中国一直做房产中介的张小姐,趁房价处于低谷之机,买下伦敦多处房产,为日后房价走高提前布局。

  一些家境殷实的留学生,也加入买房大军。小周今年就在泰晤士河边用老爸的钱付了一个小型公寓的首付,她说:“与其每月租房把钱给人家,还不如用这笔钱供房子,将来还能落下一处房产。”

  李贞驹律师对记者说,实际上许多在伦敦购房者并非自住,而是通过投资取得全家永居资格,为子女将来在英国立足做准备。李贞驹律师行的合伙人何达伟表示,来自中国内地及香港等地的投资者,一个优势是能迅速调动资金,很少需要贷款;另外英镑汇率疲弱,英国政府鼓励政策等因素,使得许多中国投资者把目光投向英国物业。英国物业中介也开始主动向华人律师行提供物业买卖信息,希望寻找华商投资。未来相当一段时期内,华人在英投资地产将会持续增温。

 

http://finance.sina.com.cn/j/20101031/09488874659.shtml

2010年10月30日

中金策略报告与市场背离 人才出走导致业绩下滑

http://www.sina.com.cn  2010年10月29日 23:11  经济观察报

  黄利明 王燕青 胡蓉萍 王玉

  中国国际金融有限公司(下称“中金”)正面临成立15年以来最为剧烈的人员流动。

  此前,哈继铭结束其在中金6年半的首席经济学家一职,加盟高盛投行部门任董事总经理。近日,据本报了解,供职中金12年半的中金投行部董事总经理贝多广将重回摩根大通,并执掌与第一创业证券合资的公司。据悉,紧随他们离开的中金高级雇员有一、二十位。

  与此相随的是,中金策略报告在今年暴跌与暴涨两个重要时点前判断均与市场走势背离。投行业务则从去年的行业收入占比19.56%下滑到如今的5.4%,由第一名跌至第四名。

  中金投行与研究两大业内顶尖业务正面临被削弱的挑战,而这些变化正发生在摩根士丹利运作将所持中金34.3%的股权出售给KKR与TPG的交易之时。

  挑战

  今年A股的走势中,最为关键的转折为4月16日开始的一轮暴跌,以及9月30日以来的大涨。

  但在这两个时间节点之前,中金公司策略研究判断均与市场趋势背离。4月12日,中金发布名为《一季度经济数据将为市场提供支持》的投资策略周报,维持其二季度看多市场的观点。

  4月16日,紧随股指期货上市,A股从3164.97点一路暴跌,至7月2日累计下跌达26.7%。

  暴跌前看多的中金公司,亦未能把握住暴涨前看多的先机。9月26日,中金发布题为《人民币升值提速难改市场资金面趋紧现状》的投资策略周报。9月30日,中金公司在市场策略“每日视点”中指出,新一轮的房地产调控政策将在短期内挫伤市场人气,同时国庆长假还可能面临着海外经济形势走坏等不确定因素,从而建议投资者在节前最后一个交易日降低仓位以提供防御性。

  但9月30日,A股开始飙涨,14个交易日内涨幅高达17.72%。相比之下,9月27日出炉的中信证券(15.51,-0.79,-4.85%)策略周报 《关注汇率博弈 建议节前加仓》则精确踩点。

  券商策略报告被认为是最具综合实力考验的方面。

  因此,一位投行人士近日接受本报采访时称 “中金的报告不太准”,这多少带有些失望的情绪,与中金的市场地位不符。北京一位基金经理则表示,其实中金报告基本面研究得比较扎实,大家现在对其的一些怨言基本在于其对于基本面与股价的联动把握能力有所欠缺。

  研究只是中金滑落的一面,其投行部更是面临强大的竞争压力。

  本报统计显示,在2005-2009年5年间,中金在355单IPO中,斩获20单,占比5.63%;在总计244.75亿元的发行费用中,占据17.57%的份额。但在今年以来的251单IPO中,其仅收获5单,并在总计153亿元的发行费用中占比不足6%。

  根据WIND数据统计,中金公司2009年主承销收入为10.97亿元,位列券商首位,行业占比19.56%;今年以来则滑落至第四,主承销收入合计7.41亿元,行业占比跌至5.4%。落后于平安10.47%、国信6.6%、招商6.59%的行业收入占比。

  一位北京的投行人士称,今年是中小板与创业板的天下,未来大盘股越来越少,中金投行面临更加艰难的未来,也许只有等待国际板的开局。但在这两年间,外资投行已经基本完成中国的合资布局,竞争将更加激烈。

  据悉,中金管理组合的业绩去年以来不甚理想。现实的局面是,社保基金投资部门在几次给予追加资金的境内投资管理人中,并没有中金公司。

  “失血”

  研究与投行两大优势业务双双遭遇挑战,与中金这两大业务板块人员纷纷离开不无关系。

  今年7月,中金首席经济学家哈继铭被传出转投高盛并获证实。

  在中金研究领域,哈继铭被认为是一杆旗帜。在他离开前后,中金策略分析师王汉峰转投高盛;首席策略师高挺转投瑞银证券任财富管理研究主管兼首席投资策略师;中金香港研究部副总经理沈建光转投瑞穗证券任大中华区首席经济学家等等。同时,中金董事总经理梁耀文、基础化工分析师时雪松也已显示离职。这只是中金众多出走人才中较为知名的。

  而在中金投行团队,投行部董事陆垠转投花旗任亚太区金融机构组董事。

  上周,有权威人士透露,中金公司投行部董事总经理贝多广将重回摩根大通,并将执掌摩根大通与第一创业证券成立的合资证券公司。近期,贝多广已经开始介入第一创业证券的部分管理。

  贝多广1998年4月加入中金,主要从事国内外资本市场企业重组、上市和并购等工作。

  据粗略测算,中金有一、二十人收到外资投行的加盟邀请。为应对大幅人员流失,中金也在寻找猎头公司四处挖角填补空位,而且对人才要求比较高。

  原高盛首席中国经济学家梁红赴任中金市场部负责人董事总经理,巴克莱资本中国首席经济学家彭文生接任哈继铭一职。据悉,彭文生系由哈继铭介绍,梁红则在投行部门就干得很开心。

  据本报了解,近期中金已从国信、海通、招商、国泰君安、安信等各大券商以及大成、汇添富等基金公司挖角。从中国证券业协会网站查询,今年6月份以来重新在中金获得注册证券从业人员证书的人士就有9位。

  今年中金下发奖金由此前的1月份延后,部分调整至6月份,这被理解为应对员工的跳槽计划。

  不过,一位频频与中金争夺项目的投行保荐人表示,即便如此,在高端人脉资源、管理与信息平台支持、相对的高薪以及大项目经验等方面中金投行依然是国内投行所难以比拟的。

  股权影子

  据中金内部人士透露,人才大幅出走主要有三方面因素,一是跳槽后薪水有不少提升;二是在中金管理过于严格,不少人认为受到束缚、干得不开心;另外则是复杂的人事关系,觉得中金的状况不够理想。

  不过,哈继铭、贝多广离职中金,正是摩根士丹利转让中金34.3%的股权之时。此前,市场普遍认为该笔股权作价约10亿美元,出售给美国私募股权投资基金KKR与TPG。

  据本报了解,中金公司有一笔逾5%的股权变更于今年5月4日递交申请并获得受理,在经过一次反馈意见后,于今年8月13日获得批复。不出意外,该笔股权应是摩根士丹利所需套现的部分。有券商行业分析师认为,这意味着这一交易可能于11月13日前完成,之后摩根士丹利很有可能将用这部分资金对其与华鑫证券的合资公司进行注资。

  与此同时,有消息称,中金引入了一个机制,允许部分高价值员工将其所持的“影子股权”套现。2004-2006年期间,中金将公司20%股权以影子股票的形式授予管理层和员工,这部分股权估价超过了10亿美元。

  当时中金正考虑上市,并冀望由此“拴住”公司管理层与骨干,并令他们其后分享上市成果。据外媒报道,中金已经开始向这部分人支付现金,这使得他们得以不用放弃太多钱,就能另谋高就。

  对于人员流动,中金公司公关部人士称:“中金确实走了一部分人,但是一直在注入新的人员,并且现在的人员队伍比原来还大。”同时,中金公司董事总经理林寿康接受本报采访时称:“投行的人员流动一向很大,中金公司的人员已经算是比较稳定的了。”

  本报就摩根士丹利股权出售及影子股权处理等相关情况多次致电中金公司相关人士,均未获得回答。

  一位曾经关注过中金影子股权的研究员称:“人员流动性过大,队伍的人心不稳,研究部门的水平下降对交易、投行等业务都会产生一定的影响。”

  值得一提的是,最近几年,瑞银、高盛、摩根大通、摩根士丹利、瑞士信贷等外资投行均已通过合资的方式进入中国,虽然在股权上暂无绝对控股突破,但在管理上却是获得主导权,因此有国际背景的中金公司成为挖角的重点。

 

http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/qsth/20101029/23118871328.shtml

楼市新政满月调查:京沪穗等地房价仍坚挺

http://www.sina.com.cn  2010年10月30日 07:59  大洋网-广州日报
楼市新政满月调查:京沪穗等地房价仍坚挺

  “9・29”楼市二轮调控新政出台正式满月,从各地隐约呈现却至今仍未得到数据证实的“退订”、“退房”潮中,除了可以窥见“限贷”、“限购”政策的威力之外,也包含了市场中买方对房价下降的预期正在呈现。不过,本报记者新政满月后回首观察北京、上海、广州三地楼市却发现,虽然楼市调控措施逐步加温,已经“很给力”,但是处于调整状态之中的房价降幅依然非常有限。不过,不少业内人士预期,随着成交量的萎缩,市场观望情绪逐步浓厚,在资金压力下开发商只能以价换量,房价“真摔”在未来依然可期。

  文/记者赖伟行、赵琳琳、李媛

  本报讯 (记者李凤荷、陈白帆)国庆前后,随着北京、上海、深圳、南京等地陆续出台限购令,不到1个月时间,已经有14个城市出台了限购令。从限购令出台后的效果看,再加上严格限制第三套房贷和加息等因素,各大城市观望气氛浓厚,9月的热销势头不复出现,相当多投资性买家因限购和贷款因素而暂不出手。然而,尽管绝大部分城市都未说明限购时间,但依然很多人担心一旦限购令解除,之前被压抑的强大需求将如洪水泛滥。因此,如何保证限购令解禁后的楼市仍健康稳定,房产税很可能是不得不祭出的终极一招。

  一线城市扫描

  广州:

  新楼开盘低调卖价高开

  刚刚过去的10月,在限购令即将出台消息的影响下,广州楼市以15日限购令正式出台为界经历了一段先扬后抑的过程,网签量在15日之前连续数天维持在过千套的惊人水平上,之后急速回落至3位数的水平。但全月的成交量仍然将创下同期新高,有机构的监测就显示,截至目前10月广州十区成交量已经超过15000套,环比9月增长了1倍以上,而十区成交均价大约为13277元/平方米,环比下降0.15%。从目前情况来看,广州房价并没有出现实质性的下降。

  不少业内人士认为,政策高压下成交却如此惊人,其实是由多方因素造成。首先,9月底多个新盘抢闸,且成交理想,但由于网签的滞后性,其成交情况多反映在10月份的成交里面,其中不乏推货量过千套开盘当天成交也近千套的十年小雅,而于中秋期间开盘的几个热点盘君华香柏广场、合生颐景华苑、万科华庭等,开盘当天成交均过百套,但也集中反映在10月的成交中;第二,十一期间虽然政策施压,但主打刚性需求、且总价多在120万元以内的楼盘依然受到市场的追捧,例如时代南湾、招商金山谷、一品湖山和雅宝新城等。至于作为政府工程的亚运城,由于其自身的特殊性以及较好的投资前景,成交也一样飘红;第三,由于“9・29”新政后,多个城市推出了限购令,广州也放出了风声,因而市场出现了一场限购前的“抢购潮”,购房者抢闸购房,而开发商也加速签约,以致15日之前几天的网签量暴增。

  记者走访发现,在新政调控之下,部分逆势开盘的楼盘都较以前转趋低调,没有过多的宣传和造势活动,同时在开盘中采取吹风价比开盘价高出一截的营销模式,吸引买家入市。位于南洲板块的某楼盘在新政后开盘就非常低调,除了在开放样板房后推出交付5万元诚意金可享受九五折优惠活动之外,在营销方面没有特别的手段。在报价方面,销售人员一贯保持价格往高处报的作风,让人产生楼盘涨价幅度很大的假象。但在开盘日价格反而是略低于之前均价2万元/平方米的报价,实际上只有少部分的高层单位价格超过2万元/平方米,而其他的楼层单位均价在18000元/平方米左右,并有少部分17600元/平方米的单位,最终当天就销售了接近一半大约过百套的货量。

  经纬行研究中心主任许婉婷认为,继9月底二次调控新政和地方限购后,央行于10月19日宣布加息0.25个百分点,次日住建部也相应提高了公积金的存贷款利率,进一步强化了楼市调控的力度,表明了政府调控房价的决心。三年来首度加息意味着信贷政策的调整。适度宽松的货币政策开始收紧,之前由于宽松货币政策而导致的资产价格泡沫有望得到控制,通胀压力将得到缓解,部分因通胀预期寻求资产保值的购房者或重回观望态势。另外,加息意味着购房成本增加,也意味着开发商降价的动力将加大。银行贷款利率提高意味着开发商已有的贷款成本将提高,虽然目前来说并不至于对开发商产生太大的冲击,但并不代表连续加息后开发商依然能够承受。目前金融机构已收紧新增开发贷款,开发商的融资渠道变窄,于是多选择民间资本和信托平台这类融资渠道,相应的成本也提高,若是已有银行贷款的成本因连续加息后进一步增加,则开发商的资金运转将更难,届时唯有加快销售回款。在这种预期情况,不排除一部分资金压力大或一直采取快速销售战略的房企在本轮加息中就率先降价,以实现资金的快速回笼。房价预期的改变意味着更多的购房者将陷入观望,当市场陷入持续观望状态,离开发商降价也就不远了。

  上海:

  豪宅热销大幅推高均价

  “9・29”新政满月,上海楼市也如申城天气一般遭遇寒流过境,商品住宅成交量持续下滑。但普通百姓最关心的房价却“表现不佳”,只有少数外围楼盘微微下调,远远达不到“跌”的程度。有业内人士指出,目前,上海房屋均价仍然站在超过22000元/平方米这一价格高位的重要原因之一,就是上海星河湾等豪宅在本月的集中成交。根据汉宇地产市场研究部发布的一手房数据,10月18日~24日这一周,全上海市公寓成交均价已经上涨至22406元/平方米,环比上涨13.4%,成为近两个月周成交均价的新高。但在扣除上海星河湾、仁恒怡庭这两个豪宅的价格影响之后,全上海市公寓的均价只有17958元/平方米。但记者在采访中发现,即便是把贵价豪宅排除在外,上海楼市也没有出现明显的价格下跌。事实上,上海一般商品住宅的价格仍然保持稳定,之前喊出“降价”口号的,只是一些一度热销的郊区外围楼盘,特别是外环以外的板块。而汉宇地产的数据也显示,即便是这些偏远板块的楼盘,价格跌幅也都在5%以内。有业内人士向记者表示,这些楼盘与市区内的楼盘相比,本身并不算稀缺,也就难在市场环境欠佳时“保值”。而且在调控措施出台前,这些板块楼盘的价格都曾有过大幅度的提升。

  汉宇地产对旗下100多家门店的调查数据显示,10月以来,主动撤销购买意向的客户数量占到总成交的三成左右,其中首次购房和改善型购房客户各占一半。但这不意味着购房者已经彻底打消购买念头,除了那些确实承担不了首付和利率的买家不得不“被退房”和“被观望”,仍有不少人“伺机而动”。上海的符阿姨就代表了不少购房者的心态,她告诉记者,受“限购令”影响,自己一家原来“逐步渐进”式的购房计划已经全盘打乱,现在的计划是一步到位。

  目前上海楼市普遍打出“优惠”牌。据搜房网数据监控中心统计,截至10月19日,11月份预计打折优惠楼盘148个,环比再涨4%。但是,超过半数的打折楼盘不过是总价9折甚至以上、总价优惠10万元以内,远未达到购房者的心理预期。

  受10月份零星出现的“退房潮”影响,不少楼盘选择延迟开盘,尤其是十多个上海内环以内高档楼盘“集体迟到”。

  与此同时,10月28日,上海10月份最后一块出让的住宅用地被旭辉集团以4.56亿元拿下,溢价193%,楼面地价达8160元/平方米。旭辉方面表示“物有所值”。有业内人士表示,种种迹象说明,尽管调控影响逐步显现,但较为稀缺的优质住宅地块仍不乏开发商追捧,开发商仍然“不差钱”。

  北京:

  房价振荡调整降幅不大

  中国指数研究院高级分析师袁秀明昨日在接受本报记者采访时表示,新政对北京房地产市场影响较大。从今年4月的调控政策出台后,北京住宅销售量就明显呈现下降,到了今年8、9月份又出现了明显回升的势头。今年9月下旬,国家又出台了一系列调控政策,北京市也出台预售资金管理等调控措施,成交量在经过一系列冲高后,在今年10月份之后又出现了明显下降趋势。“总体来看,政策影响很大。而从价格来看,4月份的调控政策出台后,北京房价未再出现大幅上涨,呈现调整态势,个别楼盘上涨,而更多楼盘价格呈现下跌趋势,但降幅不大。”她说。

  记者了解到,就房价及成交量而言,9月20日~26日,北京市商品住宅周销售面积约为20.94万平方米,之后一周,冲高到33.7万平方米,国庆后下降至17.93万平方米,之后,又升高到21万平方米。而截止到10月18日~24日,该周销量仅为15.02万平方米。就销售价格来看,10月之后,北京商品住宅销售价格徘徊在每平方米18000~20000元之间。

  “我们认为,这种影响在相当长一段时间内,北京房价不太可能再快速大幅上涨。”袁秀明说,此次调控相对比较彻底,但是也并非完全彻底。促使房价上涨的机制仍然在,因此,房价大幅度下降的可能性并不大。之前的调控政策总体以行政性措施为主,尽管并不完全彻底,但肯定会起到一定作用,并且会持续较长一段时间。“总体看,国家下决心进行调控主要是从国家整体经济发展状况而进行的,目前,中国经济正处于新一轮的上升阶段,经济状况良好,在这种情况下,很容易造成房价大幅上涨,这样更需要遏制房价上涨的局势。长期而言,如果房价出现快速上涨的苗头,这样的调控措施可能会如影随形,新的调控政策会到位,或者现有调控政策会更加严厉。”她说,如果政府没有经济增速下滑的顾虑,其最先进行调控的将是房地产行业,因为其牵涉金融和房地产两个行业领域,其存在金融风险,以及产业过度发展会造成经济发展失衡的风险,因此,无论从金融安全或经济结构调整角度考虑,政府都要遏制房价的过度上涨,而不会让房地产市场过热。因此,北京房价出现大幅暴涨的可能性已不太大。

  就北京二手房市场而言,有北京专业研究机构在分析新政影响后指出,新政对北京二手房市场的调控确有影响。据相关统计数据,10月以来,截至本月27日,北京二手住宅网签成交套数环比9月下降了一成多,出售房源量环比9月下降8.44%,求购客户量下降了1.11%,北京二手房市场10月成交量下降,几乎已经成为定局。

  天津:

  “限购令”或成“抢房令”?

  本报天津讯 (特派记者张莹)10月14日,天津市政府正式下发《暂时实行限定居民家庭购房套数政策》的通知,限购政策的开始时间为10月13日,但没有明确的截止时间。据了解,天津“限购令”不仅不计个人之前所购的房屋数量,限购的实行范围也仅仅是不包括滨海新区和环城4区在内的市内6区。

  与深圳、南京等城市直接对第三套房“限购”的“严厉派”相比,天津等城市不计个人之前拥有房屋的数量,以家庭为单位仍可再购一套新房的宽松政策,确实显得“温柔”了许多。

  记者从天津多家地产公司和楼盘了解到,实行“限购后”,天津的整体房价和市内6区的房价均呈现出量升价跌的态势,而环城4区和滨海新区的新房和二手房市场却呈现出不均衡的发展态势。对此,业内人士认为,将限购范围规定在市内6区的商品房,对于打压炒作市内房产这个天津楼市的“龙头”有一定积极作用,而限制市内新楼盘的购买是否会迎来天津环城4区和滨海新区楼市的“春天”则有待时间的证明。

  “稀缺资源”扛得住?

  由于天津市内6区相对面积较小,房源相对较稀缺,因此对于很多家庭来说,这个本意旨在抑制每个家庭购房数量的政策,亦有可能导致“每个家庭都不会放过的这唯一的一次市内购房机会,令当地居民或外地投资者在短时间内抢购市内6区的房源”的情况出现。如此来看,天津的这个市内6区“限购令”则有可能演变成“抢房令”。

  对此,链家地产市场部相关负责人表示,目前天津楼市主要靠刚性需求来支撑的,限购令的出台,在严厉打击投机行为之余,无疑会对部分改善型住房的刚需购房群体造成一定影响,甚至可以造成市场不理智的“疯狂”。昨日,记者来到市中心包括老城厢、南京路等地段的多家售楼处,几乎得到异口同声的回答:“我们的房子位于市中心,属于稀缺性资源,无论怎样调控价格也不会降。”

  而在本月17日开盘的天津保利大都会一期,开盘首日上午就卖了300多套,据该售楼中心置业顾问刘小姐介绍,楼盘的销售均价为2万元/平方米,“由于楼盘所处的位置是位于天津市和平区中心地段的南市,价格又比附近的其他几个楼盘定得低一点,因此开盘后销售的异常火爆不足为奇。”

  随后,记者又来到位于河东区津滨大道的万达广场,“我们的商品房目前已经全部售完。”该项目的销售主管孙莹告诉记者,该楼盘在春节后刚开盘的时候均价只有八九千元/平方米,但卖到最后均价已涨到1.5万元/平方米。

  “我觉得限购令对我个人没什么影响,尤其是在不需要贷款的情况,而市内6区的新楼盘本来就不多了,估计几年以后都只能买二手房了。”在位于天津梅江的富丽津门湖选房子的蔡先生认为,实行“限购令”根本无法挡住真正想买房的人,即使把自己新购一套房的“指标”用完了,也可以找到亲戚朋友的“空闲指标”。

  在位于河北区、红桥区附近的几个楼盘销售处,均被工作人员告知没有特别优惠。即使有个别项目推出几套特价房,优惠幅度也很小。

  14城出台限购令,为房产税出台铺垫?

  为何是这些城市出台“限购令”?

  记者发现,目前出台限购令的城市主要集中在长三角、珠三角、环渤海以及海南等经济发展较快的一线和二线城市,同时还包括三亚、海口这种拥有稀缺自然资源、面对全国客户的旅游城市。在城市发展前景看好的情况下,不管是本地的购买力、周围的购买力还是来自全国各地的购买力,均为这些城市的房价上涨提供了坚实的基础。应该说,北京、上海这两个全国最中心的城市除了拥有本地强大的购买需求外,全国各地的高端买家亦会为在北京、上海拥有房产而感到自豪。深圳、宁波、福州则是投资性客户发家的几个大城市,在炒家盛行的情况下,这些城市的楼价总是会大起大落。杭州、大连、三亚和海口则拥有较珍惜的自然旅游资源,特别是今年年初海南国际旅游岛的建设上升为国家策略的消息发布后,三亚和海口楼市旋即被来自全国各地的疯狂买家所包围。南京、天津、广州则是中国东南片区的核心城市,近几年不断加强的城市建设以及不断提高的城市地位,也使得这几个核心城市的价格2009年~2010年相对于2008年有较大涨幅。

  从综合归纳了各地限购令的表格中不难看出,由于禁止购买第三套房,深圳、南京的“限购令”可谓最为严格。而上海、杭州等其他城市则对原先所拥有的房屋数量不予考虑,机会平等,每个居民家庭仍可再购一套新房,因此也被称之相对“温柔”的限购令。广州的限购令虽然也允许每个家庭(除无纳税、社保证明的)再买一套新房,但由于为了堵住投资者钻空子的机会,还特别规定18岁以下的未成年人不得单独购买商品房,其严格程度比业内想象中强,介乎于“严格版”和“温柔版”限购令之间。至于厦门、福州以及海口等已经规定了限购令期限到今年年底的城市,则被当地市民质疑其出台限购令的“诚意”,甚至担心“限购期”结束后,市场反而会出现报复性反弹。

  中小房企年底资金压力变大

  记者发现,全国14个城市的限购令,大部分是对新购房屋数量作出限制,少数对包含存量房屋在内的房屋总数作出限制。房地产人士表示,在限购令之下,买卖双方对楼市前景分化严重,不像2007年二套房贷政策首次实施后,买卖双方对楼市前景一致看跌,从而导致2008年楼价有所松动。作为业主一方,大部分人认为房子“卖了买不回来”,故此停止放盘,等限购令过了再说。至于购房者一方,一部分人认为政府调控楼价决心很足,还是暂时不入市;另一部分人则认为,只有供应稀缺的商品才会限购,满大街吐血大甩卖的商品没人买,故此若自己仍符合资格新购房屋,他们还是会入市。甚至有的之前没想过入市的市民,也会因为不想浪费指标而入市。

  2007年二套房贷政策宣布,2008年开发商减价促销导致楼市出现拐点,本次全国14个房价上涨过快的城市实施临时限购,让市场揣测2010年是否也出现楼市拐点。

  业界人士分析,开发商会不会降价售房,主要取决于两大因素:一是资金状况,二是对未来房价的预期。

  资金方面,不少房企今年销售依然火爆,销售回款增加明显,但其融资渠道多受限制,不少企业的购置土地费用大幅增长。记者从一些开发商了解到,对于一些资金紧张的中小房企来说,年底不少贷款也将到期,企业会面临较大的资金压力,有可能会出现降价销售的可能。

  限购令后,会是房产税吗?

  作为一个临时出台的行政措施,截至目前,各地限购令除厦门、福州和海口外都没有宣布限购令的持续时间。“临时执行”与“在限购令内”成为限购令中的模糊字眼。尽管厦门、福州和海口的限购令有效期截止到12月31日,不过当地业界人士对限购期并不乐观,他们认为政府是在“观其行,听其言”,若3个月内未达调控成效的话,限购令有可能延期执行。房地产业界人士认为,限购令至少应该持续半年才会显现调控效果,年底的旺季与明年开春的淡季有可能都被限购。市场也在猜测限购期结束后会不会就是房产税实施的开始?毕竟政府也在担心限购结束时冲闸而至的入市洪流会再次推高楼价,使得限购再次成为“中央空调”。限购令持续时间的拿捏及房产税开征的时机,或许已在政府的通盘考虑中。

  据了解,重庆、上海很可能成为住宅征收房地产税的试点城市。根据各媒体报道,重庆目前上报至财政部、国家税务总局、住房和城乡建设部的试点方案,采用“套数越多、面积越大”——税率逐级提高的累进计税方式。而上海的房产税征收税率则预计为0.3%~0.4%。有消息称,北京、深圳亦有可能被列入试点城市之中,中央对房产税的开征比较急切,希望在几个试点城市实行房产税后,明年能够在全国进行推广。不过,由于在征收税种和征收范围、税率、采取方式等方面各试点城市难以达成一致意见,因此房产税的具体开征时间仍未明确。

 

http://finance.sina.com.cn/g/20101030/07598873220.shtml

宗庆后夺双料首富

http://www.sina.com.cn  2010年10月29日 07:30  东方早报

  娃哈哈集团掌门人宗庆后在成为2010胡润百富榜首富后,再次登上福布斯富豪榜首富宝座。

  早报记者 宦艳红  

  2010年福布斯中国富豪榜昨日发布,娃哈哈集团掌门人宗庆后在成为2010胡润百富榜首富后,再次登上福布斯富豪榜首富宝座,身家达到80亿美元(约合人民币534亿元);百度的李彦宏、三一集团的梁稳根分别位列第二、第三名。去年的首富王传富财富缩水15亿美元,以42.5亿美元排名第十。

  与胡润百富榜相比,这份榜单的前五名少了玖龙纸业的张茵家族和华彬集团的严彬。

  今年福布斯富豪榜的上榜门槛为4.25亿美元,较去年的3亿美元大幅增加。福布斯统计,去年一年,中国新涌现了49名10亿美元级富豪,中国10亿美元级富豪总人数从去年的79名上升至今年的128位,而在2000年,达到这个级别的人数仅2名。但是与美国富豪相比,中国富豪的财富还不算多。9月份公布的福布斯美国富豪榜显示,400名美国富豪的财富达到13689亿美元,而中国400人的累计财富为4232美元。

  40岁以下的26位上榜富豪中,排名最靠前的为39岁的马化腾。在年轻的上榜富豪中,被媒体广泛关注的“富二代”并不多,大部分资产来自父辈的“富二代”仅有碧桂园的杨惠妍和海鑫实业的李兆会,他们也是富豪榜中仅有的两名年龄在30岁以下的富豪。  

  与去年不同的是,今年的IPO新贵主场从香港联交所转向了深交所中小板,89家中小板新上市企业中共诞生了34名福布斯中国新富豪,医药、医疗器械行业是今年聚集IPO新贵最多的行业。

  福布斯中国富豪榜前五名

  姓名      财富(亿)  公司           

  宗庆后    534       娃哈哈集团

  李彦宏    480       百度   

  梁稳根    394       三一集团 

  张近东    380       苏宁电器(15.33,0.04,0.26%)

  李锂夫妇  360       海普瑞(124.69,0.34,0.27%)药业 

 

http://finance.sina.com.cn/leadership/crz/20101029/07308865769.shtml

2010年10月29日

韩国总统呼吁朝鲜借鉴中国经济模式 South Korea urges North to emulate China’s reform model

 

韩国总统李明博(Lee Myung-bak)呼吁朝鲜借鉴中国经济模式,理由是只有“共同繁荣”与和平才能带来最终的统一。

李明博在接受英国《金融时报》采访时发表的言论,也许会令近期觉察到首尔方面失望情绪的观察人士感到意外,这种情绪针对的是中国政府拒绝谴责平壤在3月份击沉一艘韩国军舰。但李明博表示,他明白中方在私下所持的观点与公开场合的声明有所不同,目的是为了维护朝鲜半岛的稳定。

“我真的希望(朝鲜的)金(正日)委员长到中国——当今的中国——好好看看,亲眼见证一下,当你向世界开放后,一个国家的繁荣景象会发生怎样的变化,”李明博表示。

中国官员曾在5月份接待到访的金正日,带他参观了一系列港口和工厂,希望启发他推动深陷困境的朝鲜的发展。但是,传统上对中国怀有疑心的朝鲜迄今抵制根本性改革,这种改革带有政治和社会变革的风险。

咨询机构“控制风险”(Control Risks)朝鲜问题高级分析师安德鲁•吉洛姆(Andrew Gilholm)表示,李明博的话偏于乐观。“朝鲜并不能承受那种全面改革。中国能够成功地分隔经济和政治领域,但朝鲜则要脆弱得多,”他表示。他还补充称,只有金家王朝终结,才能使统一有望成真。

多数韩国人希望国家统一,但许多人担心重建贫穷、挨饿的朝鲜所需的潜在成本。据韩国政府估计,重建朝鲜大约需要1万亿美元。李明博表示,朝鲜应当付出努力,缩小与韩国之间越来越大的差距。目前韩国经济总量达到朝鲜的38倍。

不过,和平仍十分渺茫。李明博表示,3月份朝鲜一艘潜艇发射鱼雷、击沉一艘韩国军舰后,朝鲜仍是一股“好战的”势力。他还强调称,朝鲜确定金正日的三儿子金正恩(Kim Jong-eun)为接班人后,平壤方面没有任何缓和迹象。

今年早些时候,李明博曾提议开征一项统一税,以筹备国家统一后的建设成本。他否认自己提议这一税种是因为担心朝鲜突然崩溃,他表示,这是为了提醒韩国人记住未来的挑战。

尽管呼吁金正日从中国得到发展经济的启迪,但李明博强调称,平壤更深地陷入北京的政治影响对首尔是“难以接受的”。但他表示,如果朝鲜的内部分歧导致政权突然垮台,韩国也同样难以接受。

他能够期盼的最佳出路是渐进式改革。“朝鲜将会改变,尽管速度很慢,”他表示。

译者/何黎

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035261

 

 

Lee Myung-bak, South Korea’s president, has called on North Korea to emulate China’s economic model, as only “common prosperity” and peace could lead to an eventual reunification.

Mr Lee’s remarks in an interview with the Financial Times may surprise observers who have detected frustration from Seoul about Beijing’s refusal to condemn Pyongyang over the sinking of a South Korean warship in March. But Mr Lee said he knew China’s private views differed from what it said in public to preserve stability on the peninsula.

“I would really like [North Korea’s] chairman Kim [Jong-il] to see a lot more of China, the China of today, witnessing with his own eyes the result of what can happen to a country’s prosperity when you open up to the world,” Mr Lee said.

Chinese officials in May treated Mr Kim to a series of visits to ports and factories that they hoped could inspire him to develop his destitute country. But North Korea, which is historically suspicious of China, has resisted fundamental reforms, which carry the risks of political and social change.

Andrew Gilholm, senior North Asia analyst at the Control Risks consultancy, said Mr Lee was being highly optimistic. “North Korea could not really survive sweeping reforms of that kind. China could successfully keep the economic and political spheres separate but North Korea is much more fragile,” he said, adding that only the demise of the Kim dynasty would make unification likely.

Most South Koreans want reunification but many fear the potential costs of rebuilding the poor, starving country, estimated by the south’s government at about $1,000bn. Mr Lee said North Korea should work to narrow the yawning divide with the south, where the economy is 38 times bigger.

However, peace remains elusive. Mr Lee said Pyongyang remained a “belligerent” force after one of its submarines torpedoed a South Korean ship in March. He also stressed there was no sign of a detente from Pyongyang while Kim Jong-eun, the third son of Kim Jong-il, was being styled for power.

Earlier this year, Mr Lee proposed a unification tax to help prepare for the costs of a united Korea. He denied he had proposed this levy due to fears the North could suddenly collapse, but to remind South Koreans of future challenges.

Despite his call for Mr Kim to take economic inspiration from China, Mr Lee stressed it was “unpalatable” for Seoul that Pyongyang fall even more deeply under Beijing’s political influence. But it was equally unpalatable for the south that internal divisions in the north could provoke a sudden collapse, he said.

The best he could hope for was gradual reform. “North Korea will change, albeit in a very slow fashion,” he said.

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035261/en

10月29日著名分析师胡�老师解盘:资金从集中到分散 心态从中线到短炒

  又是一周的交易结束了。本周的市况应该说和上周是差不多的,这表明在所谓的“两个3000”关口的盘整和折腾还没有完。我周一看到大盘重新全面走强之后,以为“两个3000”的关口这就算过了。现在看来还是太乐观了,其实还没有过。

  虽然到现在为止,从指数上面来看,调整还不足以破坏前期整个上涨趋势。但是本周盘中所反映出来的资金从集中到分散、心态从中线到短炒的特征是令人担忧的。如果这种资金分流的现象下周不能得到遏制的话,那这波行情大致也就是到3000-3100点一带,很难再进一步往上发展了。从盘中观察,非常明显地可以看到资金是从前期领涨的那几个主流板块往外流,流向哪里?完全杂乱无章。如果能够形成一、两个炒作热点,那倒是对大盘有利的。问题是资金流是流出去 了,但是形不成集中的热点。有人也许会争辩说资金是流向中小盘的股票了呀。那么好,现在中小板的股票有将近500个,创业板又有100多个,两者加起来有600多个股票。如果资金是从几十个前期的主流股票中流向600多个中小盘股票的话,那基本上意味着散席了。所以我觉得这种资金分流的现象应该得到及时的遏制,如果下周不能遏制的话,那就对前景不能再乐观了。

  另外,资金集中在前期的那些主流板块中的时候,很明显是具有中线趋势的想法的。而且这些股票从它们的业绩、股价、市盈率来看也确实处于合理的范围、也确实还有进一步的上涨空间,因此资金筹码的锁定性是比较好的。但是这些资金流到中小盘的股票里面之后心态就完全不同了,只能短线打游击了。因为大家都知道中小盘的股票本身发行价就高,前面几个月又经过充分的炒作,因此再吃回头草的花就只能玩击鼓传花的游戏了,也就是炒个一、两天、抓个短线而已。那么这种资金的流动所伴随着的是资金持有者的中线思路到短线思路的变化,最后的结果就是全面的撤离了。

  所以我觉得本周资金回流中小盘股票、中小盘股票再度活跃对大盘不是件好事,这波行情很有可能就这样被扼杀了。但愿下周能够扭转这种资金分流的迹象,否则的话虽然暂时还不至于有大的下跌,但是整个大盘指数想要进一步向上可能性是极小极小的。
 

每日精点(10.29):利好效应逐一兑现

    与我们前期说的一样,市场果真跌到2955点,然后就不跌了。虽然最终仍然没有收红盘,但尾盘的几波拉升,激活了多头的热情,满屏的涨停个股,彰显着多头对后市的信心。

 

    金融、地产、煤炭、有色等权重板块中的大盘股没有发力,指数没有前些天那么有神采,但这正是我们想要看到的。指数的横向整理给未来留下空间,也给中小盘个股表现的机会。

 

    主力机构把目标撤出了大盘指标股,一方面是因为那些指标股短期涨幅已经不小了,一方面不希望指数一步到位并给自己留条后路,另外重要的一方面,也是政策利好的吸引和支撑。十二五计划中涉及到的新兴产业,新能源、新能源汽车、稀土、锂电池、物联网以及节能减排等行业,前期有表现的再次复苏,没好好表现的则开始焕发着勃勃的生机。

 

    纵观后市,指数估计要围绕着3000点来回震荡一段时间,上下空间不会超过100个点。但个股机会比较多,有些像是8月份的行情,我们就抓紧机会,好好做个股吧。
 

2010年10月28日

猎头的自白 Successful executives keep an eye on the next move

 

莫伊拉•本森(Moira Benigson)是MBS高管搜寻集团(MBS Executive Search Group)创始合伙人

你是如何得到现在的工作的?

我不是“得到”了一个工作,我是在23年前得到了一个客户,借此创建了一家咨询公司。我的第一个客户是蒙蒂•唐(Monty Don),那时候他还在从事零售业。我从此便踏上了成功之路。

你是否在从事某一专业领域的工作?

我们的咨询公司专注于消费品、零售业、旅行和休闲。我们的客户包括森宝利(Sainsbury's)、苹果(Apple)、Liberty、耐克(Nike)、维珍(Virgin)和Jamie Oliver Enterprises。

猎头工作吸引你的是什么?

我通过为企业介绍人才,向它们提供了解决方案。我热爱自己的事业,因为它能给企业带来切实的帮助,这一点最令我感到满足。

你多久“捕获一次猎物”?

对我而言,这个过程本身与最后找到候选人同样重要,最关键的是候选人的质量,而不是数量。

你最棒的一次推荐是哪次?

是我在1993年首次为上市公司推荐董事会人选那次。我当时不敢相信自己居然破天荒的得到了在董事会层次开展工作的机会。西尔斯公司(Sears plc)当时的首席执行官利亚姆•斯特朗(Liam Strong)是一位鼓舞人心的客户,他确实改变了我们作为咨询公司的工作方式,也给了我在广阔的国际竞争舞台开拓自己事业的机会。

最有效的沟通模式是什么?

即使在新媒体时代,与人交谈,最好是面对面交谈或打电话,也仍是最好、最有效的沟通方式。

如何看待社交媒体的作用,例如LinkedIn?

它只是另一种工具。对我们而言,人际沟通和人际关系才是猎头过程的关键。这个工作的一个关键部分是建立人际网络,这样我们才能综合借助知识、推荐和调研确定可能的候选人。

如何打电话接洽一位重量级的候选人?

我在这个领域从业已经有23年,所以在我打电话接洽的候选人中,有许多我都认识。我只有在确定自己手上有他们想了解的信息时才会给他们打电话。

是不是某些行业的高管比其它行业的高管更乐于接你的电话?

零售业者很忙,即使人在店里也经常不在办公桌旁。我对人有着天生的好奇心和真诚的兴趣,所以我觉得确定候选人并不难。因为我做这一行已经很长时间,所以许多人是经人推荐给我打电话的,也有许多人我已经关注了20多年。我经常出于兴趣去接洽人选,说不定会有意外之喜。

有没有什么“行业秘诀”?

我从来不劝说不愿换工作的人跳槽,必须要在双方看来都合适才可以。

能否给那些被猎头联系的人提条最重要的忠告?

一定要倾听,说不定会有什么机遇自动找上门来,或许能给你的事业带来转机。

应该怎样与猎头建立最良好的关系?

就像南妮•麦克菲(Nanny McPhee)说的:“你应当对我的工作方式有这点了解,如果你需要但不想要我的帮助,那我肯定会继续关注你。如果你想要但不需要我的帮助,那我只能和你说白白了。”换句话说,不要只想着眼前的需要。猎头经常能帮到你。很有趣,通常都是那些最重要、最成功的高管经常与我交谈——原因很简单,他们经常关注自己的下一个机遇在哪里。

译者/王柯伦

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035256

 

 

Moira Benigson is founding partner for the MBS Executive Search Group

How did you get your current job?

I didn’t get a job – I got a client and started a consultancy 23 years ago. My first client was Monty Don when he was in retail and I have never looked back.

Do you work in a specialist area?

The consultancy specialises in consumer, retail, travel and leisure. Our clients include Sainsbury’s, Apple, Liberty, Nike, Virgin and Jamie Oliver Enterprises.

What is it about headhunting that appeals to you?

I bring solutions to companies via the people that I bring in. I love what I do because it makes a difference to organisations, which is most satisfying.

How often do you “capture your prey”?

To me, the process itself is as important as landing a candidate at the end of it – it’s about quality of delivery not quantity.

What was your best placement?

My first plc board placement in 1993. I could not believe it when I got my first opportunity to work at board level. Liam Strong, the then chief executive at Sears plc, was an inspirational client who really changed the way we worked as a consultancy and gave me the opportunity to begin my career competing on an international, big playing field.

What is the most effective mode of communication?

Even in this age of new media, speaking to people, preferably in person or on the telephone, remains the best and most effective method of communication.

How do you see the role of social media, such as LinkedIn?

It’s just another tool – for us, personal communication and relationships are key to the process. A major part of this job is networking so that we can identify likely candidates through a combination of knowledge, recommendations and research.

How do you approach the big phone call?

I have been working in this sector for 23 years so I know many of the people I am calling. And I only call people when I think I’ve got something they’ll want to know about.

Are executives in some sectors more receptive to calls than others?

Retailers are very busy and are often not at their desks as they are in their stores. I don’t find it difficult to identify candidates as I have a natural curiosity and genuine interest in people. Because I have been doing this for such a long time, many people are recommended to call me – and others I have tracked for over 20 years. I often just meet people out of interest as you just never know.

What are the “tricks of the trade”?

I never persuade reluctant movers – it has to be right on both sides or it will not work.

Your best piece of advice for anyone contacted by a headhunter?

Always listen – you never know what opportunity might present itself – and what it might do for your career.

How can people best develop their relationships with headhunters?

As Nanny McPhee says: “There is something you should understand about the way I work. When you need me but do not want me, then I must stay. When you want me, but do not need me, then I have to go.” In other words, don’t just think about an immediate need. Headhunters can often help you. It is interesting that it is usually the most important and successful executives that talk to me for the very reason that they are often looking at where their next opportunity is going to come from.

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035256/en

中国如何打好稀土牌?

 

在即将到来的二十国集团(G20)首尔峰会上,汇率问题无疑是各方讨论的焦点。不过,美国白宫发言人吉布斯26日称,美国将在此次峰会上提出稀土议题。德国经济部长布吕德勒26日称,自由贸易协议必须适用于所有商品,特别是稀土资源。任何国家要保持在国际市场的活跃度,就必须同时开放本土市场。德国工业联合会当日还呼吁,美国和欧洲应协同合作,减少对中国稀土的依赖。

当各国政要还在为此问题大打嘴仗时,嗅觉灵敏的投资客早已进场了。统计数据显示,2008年底至今,美国的稀土类股票已整体上涨了12倍,在最近一个月内更是累计上涨了35%。有分析师警告道,稀土价格在如此短时间内急速上升,已经充满了泡沫,“现在的稀土市场就像20世纪90年代的网络行业。”因为一些稀土类公司到目前为止还属于项目可行性研究阶段,很可能根本就无法投入生产,但是它们的股票也出现了暴涨。此外,过去四周内,在纽约上市的稀有元素资源公司的股票价格上涨了135%,自年初至今的涨幅更高达300%。而2009年该公司仅有两名全职员工,且到2015年才有望正式开始投产。

稀土这个概念能在政商两界炒得这么热,得益于稀土是一种重要的战略资源。与战略资源相关的资产交易可视为战略金融,必和必拓、力拓搞的铁矿石指数化定价体系,就是战略金融的一种表现。安邦首席研究员陈功强调,稀土问题实质上是个战略金融问题,而不是出口规模大小的问题。在稀土战略问题上,中国也不要真地以为拿住了西方国家的命脉,更不能以此为目的。西方武器的生产和制造不会有问题,因为他们有足够的储备,其他国家扩张稀土生产也会弥补中国减少出口带来的缺口。西方国家看到了稀土价格上涨带来的巨大市场,但西方资本目前还无法大量参与这个市场。这种相对稀缺性和暂时的焦虑情绪推动了与稀土相关的资产价格急剧上涨。

虽然中国手中握有稀土这一重要的资源工具,但如何打好这张牌?这是国内各界应该冷静思考的。此事现在是国内国外两头热,美国要在G20峰会上抛出这个问题,这明显是要制造筹码,在G20平台上加大谈判筹码,与人民币汇率问题左右策应,总有一头会有收获。在国内,削减稀土出口配额让地方政府、企业和资本猛然都看到了稀土的重要性,大家都一猛子扎到资源控制的竞争中。不过,在中国管住稀土出口之后,还应该做些什么?怎样才能把稀土资源从战略上真正用好?

在我们看来,中国控制稀土资源出口只是第一步,在稀土产业的发展上,中国更大的问题来自内部。首先,在产业链和价值链上,中国最大的优势是资源秉赋,但在稀土产业链上基本处在价值链低端,在应用部分基本处于全面落后的状态。尤其是把稀土用于其他产业时,我们的产业领域和应用模式的价值都很低。稀土应用的很多专利都掌握在日本等国的企业手中,中国企业和研究机构极少拥有专利。实际上,这是工业能力、产业结构和技术能力的问题。其次,在资源利用上,国内也十分混乱,资源开采和利用缺乏系统的战略安排,往往形成中央企业、地方企业、乡村企业多头参与开发的混乱局面,资源浪费极大。据称,在南方某重稀土产区,稀土资源开采中的浪费量比最后的使用量还多一倍!同时,国内开采方式极为粗放,对环境的毁灭性破坏极大。第三,中国控制稀土资源的政策缺乏弹性和结构差别。如果“一刀切”控制资源出口,也会限制国内相关产业的发展。有专业人士建议,中国控制出口应该“轻重分开”,储量丰富的轻稀土的出口量可以适当增多,而稀缺的重稀土则要从严控制——这既堵住了发达国家的嘴,又保护了最珍贵的资源。

此外,稀土争端也是个外交问题,中国必须调整策略,找到应对国际指责的办法。一是要找到更好的限制开采的理由,诸如资源滥用、环境污染等,可以考虑将环境毁坏情况拍成影片,在多个国际场合播放;或者邀请指责中国最厉害的外国议员和企业代表,到中国稀土开采地去参观环境毁坏的情况。这不仅让他们了解中国控制开采的正当理由,还可以为资源加价提供支持——这是要计入环境成本!总之,要用国际上懂的理由、用国际语言来解释,而不是自始至终只会用一种冰冷的外交辞令来应付。

最终分析结论(Final Analysis Conclusion):中国限制稀土资源出口,只是朝利用好资源迈出的第一步。中国还必须考虑到稀土资源的战略金融属性,理顺国内的体制机制,协调好产学研的合作,把国内的稀土产业利用发展好,才能打好这张战略牌。

(注:安邦咨询公司是中国内地一家独立智库机构,专注于财经与公共政策研究。本文只代表该机构观点。)
 

分析:谁是稀土危机的受益者? US rare-earths concern is well-placed to profit

 

正如一名分析师所说的那样,假如把稀土矿业公司比作新的网络股,那么莫利矿业公司(Molycorp)俨然就是亚马逊(Amazon)。

凭借今年8月融得的3.79亿美元资金,以及一项经过证实有着大规模生产历史的资产,这家总部位于科罗拉多州的公司现在似乎处在独一无二的有利地位,可从中国限制稀土出口引发的稀土供应担忧中获利。

然而,若想实现成为50年来首家在美国开采稀土矿的公司的梦想,即便是市值已达26亿美元左右的莫利矿业,也需要跨过几个障碍。

如果不是因为特别稀有,稀土根本不会受到关注。这种矿产对于制造各种高科技产品(从智能手机到巡航导弹)至关重要,而中国的稀土产量占全球的97%。

一些安全专家主张,美国的稀土生产在商业方面存在许多变数,因此需要政府扶持。

莫利矿业的矿山位于加州东部莫哈韦沙漠的帕斯山。曾经有几十年,这里一直是美国唯一的稀土来源,产量约占全球的一半。

此前,该矿山由美国石油集团优尼科(Unocal)所有。2005年,中海油(CNOOC)曾竞购过优尼科,此举曾引发美国对稀土的担忧。

后来,美国第二大石油公司雪佛龙(Chevron)收购了优尼科,使之摆脱了中海油的追逐。接着在2008年,雪佛龙将矿山出售给了私人股本投资者,包括资源资本基金(Resource Capital Funds)和高盛(Goldman Sachs)。

曾为优尼科掌管这块业务的马克•史密斯(Mark Smith)成为莫利矿业首席执行官。

截至那时,帕斯山矿山已关闭六年。2002年,该矿山失去了生产牌照,因为此前受到镉和铅等金属污染的废水出现泄露。

2004年,优尼科重新获得牌照,有效期30年。但稀土价格当时萎靡不振,2001年上半年至2002年底,稀土价格下跌逾50%。莫利矿业认定,该矿山的生产已不具经济效益。

但该公司认为,这块业务仍值得投资。2004年至2006年,该公司一直致力于找到加工稀土矿石的新方法,以消除污染风险。

今年8月,莫利矿业通过首次公开发行(IPO)融资3.79亿美元。迄今股价已累计上涨约160%。

这笔资金将用来在帕斯山建设采矿设施,明年年初将破土动工,计划于2012年底投产。

莫利矿业的目标是每年生产约1.9万吨稀土产品,占全球产量的约六分之一,超过美国需求总量。

然而,该项目的总成本预计为5.11亿美元,因此融资缺口约为1.5亿美元。要填补这一缺口,有三种选择:设备销售商提供的卖方融资,商业银行贷款——该公司已聘用法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)安排相关交易——或者以美国政府拨款为担保的贷款。

莫利矿业早先曾申请过这类贷款,并遭到拒绝,但它现在正尝试再次申请。

融资工作很复杂,因为稀土价格波动很大。

举例来说,银行不得不做出判断:氧化铈的价格将接近哪个水平,是每磅1.83美元的三年平均水平,还是9月份的每磅16.33美元。

阴谋论者提出,中国可能会增加出口,目的是再度压低价格,这可能会让外国稀土生产商停业。

行业组织Technology and Rare Earth Metals Centre的亚龙•沃罗纳(Yaron Vorona)警告称,环境规定或其它政策的变化可能会扼杀美国的稀土生产。

他表示:“现在的一个问题是,该行业无法防范政策风险。”

莫利矿业辩称,该公司考虑到了这些问题。它表示,新的分离加工方法将避免产生环境问题,同时还会让该公司的生产成本降至中国竞争对手的一半。该公司正在使用这一方法加工2002年以前开采出的矿石。

对这个曾经大起大落的行业来说,未来可能会出现更多状况。

译者/梁艳裳

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035249

 

 

If rare-earth mining companies are the new dotcom stocks, as one analyst has put it, then Molycorp looks the most like Amazon.

With a $379m fundraising in August and an asset with a proven history of large-scale production, the Colorado-based company seems uniquely well-placed to profit from the alarm over supplies of rare earths caused by restrictions on Chinese exports.

Yet, even Molycorp, with a market capitalisation of about $2.6bn, still has several obstacles to surmount to realise its ambition of becoming the first company to open a rare-earth mine in the US for five decades.

Rare earths, minerals that are obscure if not particularly rare, are vital for the manufacturing of high-tech products from smartphones to cruise missiles, and China accounts for 97 per cent of world production.

Some security experts argue that US production of rare earths is so commercially uncertain that it needs government support.

Molycorp’s mine – Mountain Pass in the Mojave desert, eastern California – was for decades the sole source of rare earths in the US, accounting for about half of global production.

The mine was previously owned by Unocal, the US oil group that was bid for by Cnooc of China in 2005; a move that stirred up US concerns about rare earths.

Chevron, the second- biggest American oil company, bought Unocal to keep it out of Cnooc’s hands and then in 2008 sold the mine to private equity investors, including Resource Capital Funds and Goldman Sachs.

Mark Smith, who ran the business for Unocal, became chief executive.

By then, Mountain Pass had been shut for six years. It lost its licence to produce in 2002, after leaks of waste water contaminated with metals such as cadmium and lead.

In 2004, Unocal managed to renew the licence, for 30 years, but rare-earths prices were weak – they fell more than 50 per cent between the first half of 2001 and the end of 2002 – and the company decided that production was uneconomic.

However, it decided the business was still worth investing in and spent 2004-06 working on new ways to process the ore, to remove the pollution risk.

It raised $379m in the initial public offering in August, and since then the shares have risen about 160 per cent.

The money will be used to build facilities at Mountain Pass, with ground broken at the start of next year, to enable production to be started by the end of 2012.

The target is to produce about 19,000 tonnes of rare-earth products per year: about one-sixth of global production and more than the entire US demand.

However, the total cost of its project is estimated at $511m, so it has a funding gap of about $150m. There are three options for filling it: vendor finance from equipment sellers, commercial bank lending – the company has hired BNP Paribas to arrange a facility – or loans backed by US government grants.

A previous application was rejected, but Molycorp is now trying again.

The financing is complicated because rare-earths prices are so volatile.

Lenders have to judge whether cerium oxide, for example, will be closer to its three-year average of $1.83 per pound or its $16.33 per pound in September.

Conspiracy theorists suggest China could raise its exports in order to drive prices back down again, potentially shutting down foreign producers.

Yaron Vorona of the Technology and Rare Earth Metals Centre, an industry group, warns that changes in environmental regulation or other policies could stifle US production.

“One of the issues here is the inability of the industry to insure itself against policy risk,” he says.

Molycorp argues that it has those issue covered. It says its new separation process, which it is using with ore mined before 2002, will both avoid environmental issues and allow it to produce at half the cost of the Chinese competitors.

In a sector that has shown huge volatility, there is likely to be more to come.

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035249/en

中国将决定未来金价走势 China holds the key to future increases in gold prices

 

最近黄金价格的飙涨,不过是新一轮牛市的第一阶段——到2015年,此轮持续数年的牛市将把金价推升至每盎司2000美元以上。推动金价上涨的除了经济因素,还有各机构在购买黄金方式上的创新。但最重要的驱动因素还未出现。

首先,让我再概述一下将金价推升至当前水平的各项因素。经济因素集中体现在货币政策和通胀风险上。一些工业国正努力让本币贬值,并将动用货币政策来支持这一目标。日本为了让日元走软,投入240亿美元进行非冲销式干预。这一政策获得了成功,尽管效果十分短暂。2003-04年间,日本在干预汇市上的花费超过了3500亿美元,有可能轻松地采取同样的做法。这一政策会增加美元流动性,同时促进日本自身的货币增长。美联储(Fed)也越来越明显地暗示,将出台新一轮定量宽松政策。这种重大的政策举动将立即引发投资者抛售美元,并且可能为其它货币的竞争性贬值打下伏笔。

5年前交易所交易基金(ETF)的推出,也对金价起到了推动作用。通过这些基金,投资者能够像购买股票那样轻易地购买金块。2010年第二季度,投资者通过此类基金购买了逾274吨黄金。这些基金的黄金持有量已超过2000吨,成为全球第六大储备者,仅次于国际货币基金组织(IMF)以及美国、德国、法国和意大利等国央行的官方储备。按照目前的增速计算,到2012年底,这些基金将成为第三大储备者。在长期出售黄金之后,各国央行再次转为买家。中国去年透露,已购入450吨黄金。去年10月,印度购入200吨。俄罗斯今年购入71吨黄金,而毛里求斯、泰国、孟加拉和斯里兰卡也进行了少量购买。韩国上周宣布,可能会动用2900亿美元外汇储备中的一部分资金来购买黄金。过去20年间,各国央行总共售出4500吨黄金。

但有可能影响黄金市场的最重要的新因素是中国。中国拥有逾2.4万亿美元的外汇储备,但其中仅有1.7%用于投资黄金。IMF预计,未来5年,中国经常账户盈余将达到2.6万亿美元。如果真是这样,其外汇储备有望升至5万亿-6万亿美元。即使是保持当前的黄金储备比例不变,中国仍需再购入1000至1500吨。但中国很可能选择扩大黄金在外汇储备中的比重,以降低美元贬值造成的冲击,并巩固人民币作为全球货币的地位。

与100年前的美国一样,中国很可能将大量持有黄金,视为展示财力的一种方式。1913年,在美元成为全球货币之前,美国拥有2293吨黄金,而英国、德国、法国和俄国分别仅持有248吨、 439吨、1030吨和1233吨。随着一战使英国的财政状况陷入瘫痪,美国庞大的黄金储备,让美元自然而然地取代了英镑。美国目前的财政政策与英国战时的政策有着诸多相似之处。某种意义上讲,这种政策还可能削弱美元的全球角色。一些中国官员已公开呼吁中国央行购入1万吨黄金。中国央行拒绝就这些提议置评,但如果美国奉行美元贬值的策略,同时人民币的全球化程度逐渐提高,这些提议的吸引力将会越来越大。

还存在一种可能:中国外汇储备的大规模扩张,会导致货币增长加快,并推高其通胀率。如果是这样,中国对黄金的私人需求将骤然增加。自2008年中国解除对黄金市场的管制以来,对黄金的私人需求一直增长迅速。过去12个月,中国私人共购买了143吨黄金,而2009年和2008年仅分别为73吨和17吨。如果投资者察觉到中国的货币增长将导致通胀上升,那么这一数字很容易就会升到数百吨。美国政府一直对人民币盯住美元的政策表示不满,但如果中国开始推行非冲销式汇率干预政策,允许通胀加速,它将停止指责。那样,人民币实际汇率将上升,从而导致中国商品的竞争力下降。

人们无法预测中国何时会购买黄金,但毫无疑问,这将扩大对黄金的需求。未来25年内,来自中国的需求将使其它所有因素都相形见绌,并确保无论美联储采取何种政策,金价都会大幅上扬。

作者是戴维•黑尔全球经济咨询机构(David Hale Global Economics)主席

译者/何黎

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035252

 

 

The recent gold price rally is the first stage of a multi-year bull market that will drive the gold price to at least $2,000 an ounce by 2015. A mixture of economic factors and innovations in how institutions can purchase the metal have moved prices. But the biggest driver of gold prices is yet to come.

First, a recap of the factors that have taken gold prices to present levels. The economic causes centre on monetary policy and the risk of inflation. Some industrial countries are striving to devalue their currencies and will use monetary policy to support the goal. Japan has spent $24bn on unsterilised intervention trying to weaken the yen. The policy succeeded, albeit briefly. In 2003-04, Japan spent more than $350bn on intervention and could easily do so again. This policy would increase dollar liquidity while nurturing more monetary growth in Japan itself. The Federal Reserve has also been dropping ever bigger hints that it will embark on a policy of further quantitative easing. A significant policy move will trigger immediate selling of the dollar, and could set the stage for competitive devaluations elsewhere.

The gold price has also benefited from the introduction of exchange-traded funds five years ago. These funds allow investors to purchase gold bullion as effortlessly as a share of stock. In the second quarter of 2010, investors purchased more than 274 tonnes of gold through ETFs. Their holdings exceed 2,000 tonnes, and are the sixth-largest in the world after the official stocks at the International Monetary Fund as well as the central banks of the US, Germany, France, and Italy. At current growth rates, these ETFs could rank in third place by the end of 2012. After a long period of selling gold, central banks are also re-emerging as buyers. China revealed last year that it had purchased 450 tonnes of gold. India bought 200 tonnes last October. Russia has bought 71 tonnes of gold this year, while there have been small purchases by Mauritius, Thailand, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. South Korea announced last week that it might use some of its $290bn of foreign exchange reserves to buy gold. During the previous two decades, central banks sold nearly 4,500 tonnes.

But potentially the most important new factor in the gold market is China. China has more than $2,400bn of foreign exchange reserves, but only 1.7 per cent of them are invested in gold. The IMF is projecting that China will run a current account surplus of $2,600bn over the next five years. If it does, its forex reserves could rise to the $5,000bn-$6,000bn range. Even if it keeps the gold share of its reserves constant, it will have to buy another 1,000-1,500 tonnes. Yet the odds are high that China will want to expand the gold share of its reserves to lessen its vulnerability to dollar devaluations and strengthen the renminbi's status as a global currency.

As with the US 100 years ago, China will probably regard large gold holdings as a way to project financial power. In 1913, before the dollar had emerged as a global currency, the US had 2,293 tonnes of gold compared with 248 tonnes for Britain, 439 tonnes for Germany, 1,030 tonnes for France, and 1,233 tonnes for Russia. America's large gold reserves made the dollar a natural replacement for sterling when the first world war crippled Britain's financial position. The US is running a fiscal policy that has parallels with Britain during war time. It could also undermine the dollar's global role at some point. Some Chinese officials have publicly called for the central bank to purchase 10,000 tonnes of gold. The central bank has declined to comment on these proposals, but they will become increasingly attractive if the US pursues a policy of dollar devaluation while the renminbi emerges as a more global currency.

 

It is also possible that the huge expansion of China's foreign exchange reserves could spawn faster monetary growth and lift its inflation rate. If it does, there could be a sharp rise in Chinese private demand for gold. China has deregulated its gold market since 2008 and private demand is rising rapidly. It totalled 143 tonnes in the past 12 months compared with 73 tonnes in 2009 and 17 tonnes in 2008. It could easily rise to several hundred tonnes if investors perceive that China's monetary growth is going to produce higher inflation. The US government has been critical of China's policy of pegging the renminbi to the dollar, but it would abandon this criticism if China pursued a policy of unsterilised currency intervention and allowed inflation to accelerate. The renminbi would then appreciate in real terms, and make Chinese goods less competitive.

There is no way to predict the timing of China's future gold purchases, but there can be little doubt that they will create a demand for gold that will dwarf all other factors during the next quarter century and guarantee large price gains irrespective of what happens to Federal Reserve policy.

The writer is chairman of David Hale Global Economics

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035252/en

美国政治广告拿中国说事 China’s muscle becomes campaign issue to wrestle with

 

“为什么强大的国家都会走向灭亡?”2030年,在北京某大学的课堂上,一名中国教授这样问下面专注听讲的学生。“古希腊、罗马帝国、大英帝国、美国。因为他们都犯了同样的错误:与原来使得他们伟大的原则背道而驰。”

以上场景出自独立团体“公民反对政府浪费”组织(Citizens Against Government Waste,简称:CAGW)最近投放的一个别出心裁的广告。一些学者已经将这个广告封为中期选举期间的“最佳广告”。早在6个月前,就有许多人预计,中国——确切地说是对中国的恐惧——将在美国中期选举中扮演更重要的角色。

但直到上周以前,对中国经济实力的怨恨,还只像一条恶狠狠但基本上很少吠叫的狗。况且,CAGW广告攻击的矛头是美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)据称的过分支出计划,而并未触及美国国内有关就业继续向东亚流失的普遍看法——这一点从日益强烈的反贸易情绪中可见一斑。不久前由全国广播公司(NBC)和《华尔街日报》(WSJ)联手进行的一次民调显示,有53%的美国人认为自由贸易对美国不利。

但民主党人基本上避免了将贸易作为一项竞选议题。相反,他们将重心放在匿名企业捐助在中期选举期间的作用上——今年早些时候,美国最高法院的一项裁定,为企业在竞选期间在自己关心的议题上自由支出打开了闸门。

奥巴马曾短暂地试图引发针对美国商会(US Chamber of Commerce)海外会员费的众怒,他暗指外国企业正为共和党的竞选提供资助。

而本月早些时候由民主党全国委员会(Democratic National Committee)推出的另一则广告,也许算得上中期选举期间第二值得关注的广告。广告里的情节显示,藏在暗处的中国捐助者是罪魁祸首。该广告被命名为“窃取我们的民主”,声称共和党人正从外国资助中受惠。在一位女士的手提包在地下停车场遭抢这个模糊背景下,有人在点数一沓面值为100元、印有毛泽东头像的人民币钞票。

然而这个问题未能引起共鸣。而奥巴马的高级政治顾问戴维•阿克塞尔罗德(David Axelrod)在全国电视上被要求解释奥巴马政府是否有证据证明美国商会将外国资金用于竞选活动时,只是笨拙地说,美国商会应当证明自己没有动用海外资金。对此,哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)主播鲍勃•席费尔(Bob Schieffer)反问道:“这就是你能提供的最佳答复吗?”

除了成为美国公众对失业率长期居高不下普遍忧虑的矛头,中国在中期选举竞选过程中的角色,还牵扯到人们对美国国力衰落的更为广义的恐惧。英国《金融时报》对库克政治报告(Cook Political Report)列出的68个“摇摆”地区所做的分析显示,这些地区的失业率升幅和家庭收入中值降幅均超过美国平均水平。

然而,在这些地区挑战现任民主党议员的共和党人,很少把制造业就业流失或向中国外包当作竞选宣传中的关键问题。矛盾的是,虽然中国去年成功推行了有效(而且相对更大)的财政刺激计划,但共和党人大都局限于攻击奥巴马的支出记录。这也是“公民反对政府浪费”组织广告的攻击目标。

这则广告中,那名中国教授一边阴险地假笑,一边总结道:“当年美国企图以庞大的开支和税收来摆脱严重的经济衰退,出台巨额的所谓刺激支出、医疗改革、政府接管私有企业,搞得债务积重难返。当然,我们是他们的大债主,”他停顿了一下,笑了一声。“现在他们得给我们干活。”台下听众爆发出一阵狂笑。

译者/何黎

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035251

 

 

“Why do great nations fail?” a Chinese professor asks an auditorium of attentive students in Beijing in 2030. “The ancient Greeks, the Roman Empire, the British Empire and the United States of America. They all made the same mistakes. They turned back on the principles that made them great.”

The slickly produced advertisement, which was put up last weekend by Citizens Against Government Waste, an independent group, has been described by some pundits as the midterm “advert of the season”. Six months ago many had been expecting that China – or fear of China – would play a larger role in the US midterm elections.

But until last week resentment of China’s economic prowess was the dog that had largely failed to bark. Furthermore, the CAGW advert, which targets President Barack Obama’s allegedly excessive spending, sidesteps the widespread view across the US that jobs continue to be exported to east Asia – one that also features in ever stronger anti-trade sentiments. A recent NBC/WSJ poll showed that 53 per cent of Americans think free trade has been bad for the country.

But Democrats have largely avoided making trade into a campaign issue. Instead, they have focused on the role of anonymous corporate spending in the midterm elections following a Supreme Court ruling earlier this year that opened the floodgates for companies to spend freely on their issues during elections.

Mr Obama briefly attempted to generate outrage over the US Chamber of Commerce’s overseas membership dues – insinuating that foreign companies were bankrolling the Republican party’s campaign.

And in what may be the second most noteworthy advert of the campaign, the Democratic National Committee earlier this month put out a spot that highlighted shadowy Chinese donors as the culprit. The advert, entitled “stealing our democracy”, alleged the Republicans were benefiting from foreign money. Against the grainy backdrop of a woman having her bag snatched in an underground car park, the advert shows someone counting out 100-renminbi notes bearing Mao Zedong’s face.

But the issue failed to catch on. And David Axelrod, Mr Obama’s senior political adviser, was caught fumbling on national television when he was asked to explain whether the Obama administration had any evidence the US Chamber of Commerce had channelled foreign money into the campaign. “Is this the best you can do?” asked Bob Schieffer, the CBS host, when Mr Axelrod said the chamber should prove it had not used overseas funds.

Instead of acting as a lightning rod for popular angst over continued US joblessness, China’s role in the midterm campaign has been bound up with more generalised fears about declining US power. According to a Financial Times analysis of the 68 “toss-up” districts identified by the Cook Political Report, unemployment has risen faster and the median household income has fallen further in those districts than in the average across the US.

But few of the Republican challengers to Democratic incumbents in those districts have made the loss of manufacturing jobs, or outsourcing to China, a strong plank in their election campaigns. Paradoxically, given China’s success in pushing through an effective – and relatively larger – fiscal stimulus last year, Republicans have largely confined themselves to attacks on Mr Obama’s spending record. That is also the target of the CAGW advert.

With a menacing half-smile, the Chinese professor concludes: “America tried to spend and tax itself out of a great recession with enormous so-called stimulus spending, reforms to healthcare, government takeover of private industries, and crushing debt. Of course, we owned most of the debt,” he says, pausing for a chuckle. “And now they work for us.” The audience erupts into laughter.

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035251/en

621家公司预告全年业绩 七成报喜两成增长翻番

  ⊙记者 赵一蕙 ○编辑 裘海亮

  三季报披露临近落幕,上市公司全年业绩基本也有概貌。据上证报资讯统计,截至10月28日,已有621家上市公司对2010年全年业绩作出预告,其中“报喜”公司总计445家,占比达71.7%。元器件、有色金属、机械设备等多个行业在三季度业绩增长的同时,全年业绩有望继续保持稳定态势。

  全年业绩“报喜”的445家公司中,有403家预告同比增长、42家扭亏;“报忧”公司共计86家,占比13.8%,包括55家预告同比下降,31家首亏。另有78家公司预平,12家公司预告业绩不确定。

  在业绩同比增长的403家公司中,228家公司业绩增幅在50%以下,占比为56.6%,将近六成;预告最高增幅超过100%的公司达到89家,占比约22%,其中2家预测增幅在10倍以上,分别为大族激光(16.14,-0.27,-1.65%)大港股份(10.37,0.00,0.00%),最高预测增幅分别为11930%和2100%。两者除了全年业绩基数较低外,前者业绩大幅上升包括了主要客户需求增长外、动迁补偿和投资收益等因素;而大港股份除拥有交付的房地产外,所投资的新能源子公司大幅扭亏也是推动业绩上升的重要原因。而增幅在5倍至10倍之间的有包钢稀土(91.01,-0.27,-0.30%)湘潭电化(24.52,0.41,1.70%)沈阳机床(14.45,-0.10,-0.69%)等8家公司。

  预增的403家公司中,中小板及创业板公司占到338家,占比将近84%;其中增幅在50%以上的有115家,占34%。

  分行业看,上述报喜的公司主要集中在电子元器件、机械设备、生物医药、有色金属等行业。元器件、有色金属行业高增长明显。在电子元器件48家公司中,41家同比报喜,其中增幅超过50%或扭亏有24家,有12家最高增幅超过100%;有色金属行业已预告全年业绩的24家公司中,有14家业绩增幅超过50%或扭亏,增幅超1倍的为9家。纺织服装、生物医药整体增幅较小;28家纺织服装行业增幅在50%以内的占比超过大半,但也有像新野纺织(6.07,-0.04,-0.65%)、华孚色纺等增幅在100%以上的公司,这两家公司都提到前期储存的低价位棉花对业绩的影响。而医药行业增幅在50%以下的占比超过一半。此外,机械设备作为大分类,96家预告全年业绩的公司中,有70家业绩同比增长,幅度超过100%的有27家。

  与此同时,房地产行业全年业绩目前来看并不那么悲观,尤其是二、三线城市房企,增幅可观。有22家公司发布预告,其中15家同比增长或扭亏,津滨发展(6.89,0.63,10.06%)、华丽家族同比增幅在400%至500%间,诸如荣盛发展(13.44,-0.22,-1.61%)滨江集团(12.11,-0.19,-1.54%)等地区龙头,预告的全年业绩涨幅也在50%至70%左右。而万科、保利等行业龙头尽管未对全年业绩做出具体预测,但前者拥有大幅未结算收入,预计第四季度结算收入将超过前三季度总和,后者预计今年业绩超出去年。而调控的作用尚待市场消化。

  “报忧”公司的行业特征尚不明显,化工、公用事业(2334.611,-15.48,-0.66%)等领域分化较为明显。公用事业行业中,预告全年业绩的15家公司中,9家预告预增或扭亏,水处理行业的碧水源(114.000,0.88,0.78%)增幅在50%至100%,但发电企业的情况不容乐观,华电国际(4.07,0.02,0.49%)预告业绩下降50%,漳泽电力(4.38,-0.03,-0.68%)华银电力(4.98,0.06,1.22%)均预告全年亏损。

 

http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/20101029/03318865011.shtml

农产品涨价并非投机所致 Don’t blame the speculators for rising soya and grain prices

 

玉米、大豆和小麦的价格在过去几个月里显著回升,冲击着社会的方方面面:消费者看到超市商品涨价了;企业的利润空间被压缩了;而新兴经济体的政策制定者不得不着手应对粮食价格大幅上涨的问题。像往常一样,有人把上述农产品价格的上涨归咎于投机者的参与。

但真实情况就隐藏在数字当中。在投机性多头头寸接近创纪录高点之际,库存严重吃紧,某些情况下甚至迫近历史低点。更大的挑战还在后面:若想实现可持续的供需平衡,农产品价格就必须进一步上涨,因为只有这样才能鼓励农民将迫切需要的更多土地投入上述作物的种植,而这副重担主要落在巴西等新兴市场国家肩上。我们早就提出,全球玉米和大豆供需紧张,特别是考虑到天气状况经常出人意料,而且如果价格不上涨,产量就将无法满足需求,从而使供需状况进一步收紧,达到岌岌可危的水平。

在美国,玉米歉收已促使农业部下调了对玉米收成的预估值,从每英亩164.7蒲式耳的创纪录水平下调至每英亩155.8蒲式耳,而且可能进一步向下修正。即使能够实现目前估计的收成,美国的玉米库存也将下滑至年需求量的6.7%这一难以维系的水平。全球近60%的玉米出口来自美国。

1995-96年度,玉米库存需求比曾降至5%。次年春季,面对由此造成的价格上涨,美国农民将玉米种植面积扩大了近800万英亩,使库存需求比回升至更适宜的水平。

但在今天,能用来应对紧张局面的空地要少得多,尤其是考虑到棉花和小麦还在争抢种植面积。美国国内对牲畜和乙醇的需求日趋增长,加上在新兴市场收入强劲增长的支撑下,玉米出口需求也在不断增加,美国农民明年至少要扩种250万英亩玉米,才能让供需状况稳定在今天已然吃紧的水平上。

在短期内,我们认为,玉米价格至少要(从当前的每蒲式耳5.60美元)上涨到每蒲式耳6美元、甚至可能是7美元,才能抑制需求并激励农民去种植玉米,而不是大豆、棉花和小麦。玉米处在当前的价格水平,畜牧业和乙醇行业总体上是盈利的,从而催生出更多需求——根据我们的数字,每年6.6亿加仑的自愿性乙醇需求便要消耗近2.4亿蒲式耳的玉米,这还没有考虑强制性乙醇需求。

如果玉米价格保持在当前水平,库存会进一步吃紧,明年春天就有必要进一步扩大玉米种植面积,而为了争抢到土地,玉米价格必须要涨得更高。鉴于短期内供应面能做出的反应微乎其微,那么需求就必须受到抑制。

我们预计,未来几年玉米价格将继续上涨。

我们的论点(2008年首次提出)很明确。我们认为,单靠美国的产量不足以满足日益增长的国内及出口需求。如果玉米价格如我们预想的那样上涨,玉米或许真的可以得到所需的种植面积。不过,这很可能会挤占大豆的种植面积,因为总种植面积已然逼近历史高点。这最终将推高大豆价格,因为随着产量下滑,大豆的供需也将吃紧。

我们认为,只有价格走高,从而鼓励农民扩大急需的种植面积,才能实现可持续的供需均衡——巴西在这方面显示出了潜力。美国目前的生产已接近产能上限。但巴西基础设施建设不足,预示着价格的继续上涨可能会促使该国农民扩大种植面积。我们估计,大豆价格必须持续高于当前的每蒲式耳大约12美元,才能激励巴西马托格拉索省的农民增加种植面积。

虽然指责投机者很容易,但现实情况却是:产量跟不上需求,从而造成供需吃紧。这是经济规律使然。

作者为摩根史坦利大宗商品研究部主管

译者/汪洋

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035254

 

 

Corn, soyabean and wheat prices, have rallied markedly over the last several months. The impact is being felt by consumers facing higher prices at the supermarket, companies whose margins have been squeezed and policymakers in emerging economies who are having to deal with sharply higher food inflation. As is often the case, some are blaming the participation of speculators for these moves higher.

But the truth lies in the numbers. While speculative long positions are at near-record highs, inventories have tightened meaningfully and to near-record lows in some cases. Even greater challenges lie ahead. Prices will need to move higher if a sustainable equilibrium is to be achieved as only higher prices will encourage farmers to devote much-needed extra land to these crops and this burden rests largely on emerging markets like Brazil. We have long argued that global corn and bean balances were tight, especially given the tendency of weather to surprise and that without higher prices production would fall short of demand, tightening balances to untenable levels.

In the US, poor corn yields have prompted the US Department of Agriculture to cut its corn yield estimate from an expected record high of 164.7 bushels an acre to 155.8 bu/acre – and further downward revisions may still be likely. Even if the current yield estimate is realised, stocks in the US – which is responsible for nearly 60 per cent of the world’s corn exports – are poised to fall to an untenable 6.7 per cent of annual demand.

In 1995/96, stocks adjusted for demand fell to 5 per cent. The following spring, US farmers responded to the resulting increase in price by hiking corn acreage by nearly 8m acres, lifting stocks-to-use back to more comfortable levels.

However, there is much less spare capacity to respond today, particularly with cotton and wheat competing for acres. Growing domestic demand for livestock and ethanol, together with growing export demand, supported by robust income growth in emerging markets, will require US farmers to plant at least 2.5m more acres of corn next year, and this to simply keep balances steady at today’s tight levels.

In the near term, we see corn prices rising to at least $6 a bushel (from current levels of about $5.60) and possibly up to $7 a bushel as demand needs to be rationed and farmers need the incentive to plant corn, instead of soyabeans, cotton and wheat. At current prices, the livestock and ethanol industries are broadly profitable, encouraging additional demand – on our numbers, discretionary ethanol demand of 660m gallons per year is consuming nearly 240m bushels of corn in excess of what is mandated.

If prices stay at current levels, inventories will tighten even further, resulting in the need for even greater acreage next spring and by extension even higher prices to vie for acreage. Demand must be rationed as the supply response in the short-run is trivial.

We see prices remaining elevated for the next several years.

Our thesis, first outlined in 2008, is straightforward. We believe that US production alone does not have the breadth to satiate growing domestic and export demand. If corn prices rally as we envision, corn may indeed garner the acreage it needs. This acreage, however, will likely come from soyabeans as aggregate planted acreage is already near record highs, ultimately resulting in higher soyabean prices as that balance tightens as production is lost.

In our view, a sustainable equilibrium will only result if prices move higher to encourage a much-needed increase in expansion – and here Brazil shows potential. The US is already operating near capacity. However, a dearth of infrastructure in Brazil portends higher prices before farmers there will sow new areas. We estimate that soyabean prices will need to remain sustainably above current levels around $12 a bushel to incentivise farmers in Mato Grasso to add acreage.

While it is easy to blame the speculators, the reality is that production is not keeping pace with demand, and balances are tightening as a result. This is economics.

Hussein Allidina is head of commodities research at Morgan Stanley

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035254/en

读者来信:中国仍算不上“富国” China has a strong case for pleading poverty

 

先生,我大体赞同吉迪恩•拉赫曼(Gideon Rachman)在《中国不再是穷国》中阐述的观点:如果中国允许人民币对美元升值更多、更快地改善公民自由,世界各国都会受益。但我有如下保留意见。

首先,中国比拉赫曼先生所谈到的更为贫穷。世界银行(World Bank)数字显示,中国平均每天生活费低于2美元的人口约为5亿,而非拉赫曼所说的1.5亿。在与高度现代化的上海距离遥远的西部省份,即使按照南亚的标准衡量,贫困状况都十分严重。

其次,拉赫曼和其他分析人士一样,都过于重视汇率问题,仿佛只要中国允许人民币大幅升值,中国顺差和美国赤字问题就能得到明显改观。然而,要想抵消高生产率和低工资(西部源源不断的劳动力供给压低了工资水平)带来的竞争优势,升值幅度必须要高得令人难以置信。

第三,中国无视本国汇率政策的外部效应、“全力以赴”地追求经济增长的战略,部分原因在于中国领导人担心中国“未富先老”。在一代人的时间内,中国人口年龄就会超过美国。中国担忧的是,自己尚未跻身发达经济体的行列,就丧失了年轻劳动力的优势,从而在全球经济的“半外围”(semi-peripheral)角色上裹足不前。

第四,领导人无视本国经济政策对世界其它国家的深远影响的大型经济体,决非只有中国一家。美国及其货币政策就是一个明显例证——“美元是我们的货币,却是你们的问题”。而中国起码还有“贫穷”的借口。

罗伯特•H•韦德(Robert H. Wade)

英国,伦敦政治经济学院(LSE)

译者/何黎

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035253

 

 

From Prof Robert H. Wade.

Sir, I broadly agree with Gideon Rachman (“China can no longer plead poverty”, October 26) that the world at large would be better off if China allowed its exchange rate to appreciate more against the US dollar and improved civil liberties at a faster pace. Then come the qualifications. First, China can plead more poverty than Mr Rachman suggests. World Bank figures indicate that the number of people who live on less than about $2 a day is more like 500m than Mr Rachman’s 150m. Out in the western provinces, far from ultra-modern Shanghai, poverty levels are bad even by south Asian standards. Second, he and most other analysts give the exchange rate too much significance, as though the problem of China’s surpluses and US deficits could be substantially eliminated if only China would allow a sizable appreciation. The appreciation would have to be implausibly large, however, to offset the competitive advantage of high productivity and low wages (held down by the almost unlimited labour supply out west). Third, China’s disregard of the external effects of its exchange rate policy and its “go for broke” growth strategy is driven partly by its leaders’ fears that it will become old before it becomes rich. Within a generation it will have an older population than the US. The fear is that it will become stuck in a “semi-peripheral” role in the world economy, unable to rise to the ranks of developed economies as it loses the advantages of a young labour force. Fourth, China is by no means the only large economy whose leaders have disregarded the far-reaching effects of their economic policies on the rest of the world. Exhibit A is the US and its monetary policy, as in “the dollar is our currency and your problem”. China does at least have the excuse of poverty. Robert H. Wade, London School of Economics, UK

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035253/en

中国不再是穷国 China can no longer plead poverty

 

经常与中国官员交谈的人,一定很熟悉“中国还是一个发展中国家”的口头禅。然而我上周访问的上海,却戳穿了这种谦逊的表述。上海有着8车道的宽阔道路、现代便捷的地铁,霓虹闪烁的摩天大楼鳞次栉比,还有巨大的新机场和时尚的酒店,这座中国商业之都怎么都称得上发达。

当然,这座城市里也有穷人。而且上海也不能等同于中国,中国仍有1.5亿人口(总人口逾13亿)每天的生活费不到2美元。但即便如此,中国坚称自己仍是一个贫穷的发展中国家,也开始有些站不住脚。毕竟,中国坐拥超过2.5万亿美元的外汇储备。

在一些重要的方面,中国已成为一个富国。但继续坚称自己是“发展中国家”,已成为中国在关键政治和经济变革议题上的挡箭牌,这些变革对于全球其他国家意义重大。

中国表示,由于自己还不够发达,无法考虑允许人民币汇率在外汇市场上自由浮动。中国通过资本管控和持续干预外汇市场来控制汇率水平。但人为压低人民币汇率,使中国积累了巨额贸易顺差,这不仅是中美关系紧张的一个重要原因,还造成了“全球汇率战”的议论声四起,以及国际经济体系的崩溃。

如果中国只是一个中等规模国家,世界各国大可对其货币政策不闻不问。然而,中国目前是全球最大的出口国、最大的制造国和第二大经济体。但它同时也是贸易大国中唯一采取资本管控、以阻止本币汇率升至市场水平的国家。这种奇怪现象是当前全球经济关系紧张的关键所在。

即使是美国人,也并未要求中国在一夜之间就实现货币完全可兑换。中国的银行体系仍不够成熟,不足以应对可能产生的“热钱”流动。但全球其他国家的有权利期望中国允许人民币更快升值,并制定实现汇率水平由市场确定的时间表。

然而上周,当我在上海向中国学术界人士提出上述建议时,他们的反应明显十分冷淡。他们表示,如果中国允许人民币汇率水平由市场决定,美国就会故意借助其金融机构,影响中国的稳定。再者,既然美国如此在意自身的竞争力,为什么不把工资降到中国的水平呢?

此番交流显示,本应是一个技术性经济问题的汇率管理,现在却成为高度情绪化和政治化的议题。以至于眼下在中国,呼吁民主甚至都比呼吁人民币升值容易一些。

这一悖论在中国总理温家宝身上体现得淋漓尽致。最近几个月,温家宝在多个场合谈到中国需要走向民主,这引起了轰动。不管温家宝本意如何,这个在中国官方媒体上一度几乎禁绝的词语,如今能够随意使用,这令人感到惊讶。然而在汇率问题上,温家宝却坚守正统立场。他最近警告称,强迫人民币升值有可能造成(中国的)社会动荡,而这会影响全球的稳定。

有关汇率和民主问题的辩论中,措辞惊人地相似。在这两个问题上,官方的口径都是中国尚未做好准备好——你知道,中国还是一个发展中国家。但无论在政治上还是经济上,随着中国越来越富有,这种措辞的说服力都不断减弱。目前,中国人均国内生产总值(GDP)了超过印度尼西亚,后者也是一个人口众多的亚洲国家,已经完成了从独裁到民主政治的转变。

 

说到民主,中国真正的不同之处并不是贫穷,而是跌宕悲情的历史、辽阔的疆域,以及政府对于更开放的政治体制会助长西藏和新疆分离主义活动的担忧。

指望中国立即采取浮动汇率并不现实,同样,要求中国明天就施行一人一票的选举制度也有些不切实际。但如果中国从显著改善出版自由等公民自由、以及促进司法独立起步,将既符合中国人民的利益,也符合外国人的利益。

中国政府一直坚称,中国国内的政治进展,无关外国人的合法利益。但是,又是由于中国太大,这种主张难以自圆其说。未来15年,中国的经济规模有望超过美国。届时,全球最强大的经济体将不是一个民主国家,这将是一个多世纪以来首次出现这种情况。世界其他国家有理由对此保持警觉。

中国政府喜欢喊口号。鉴于习近平2012年出任下一任国家主席的安排已然明朗,为这位新领袖提几句新口号倒也合适。我的建议是“强势国家,强势货币”,或者“自由国家,浮动汇率”。

译者/何黎

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035229

 

 

Anybody who talks regularly to Chinese officials will be familiar with the mantra that “China is a developing country”. But Shanghai, which I visited last week, mocks this modest description. With its eight-lane highways, its modern and efficient subway, its forest of neon-lit skyscrapers, giant new airport and chic hotels, China’s commercial capital is defiantly developed.

Of course, the city has pockets of poverty. And Shanghai is not China, where 150m people (out of a total Chinese population of more than 1.3bn) still live on less than $2 a day. Even so, China’s insistence that it is a poor, developing nation is beginning to wear a little thin. This, after all, is a country that is sitting on more than $2,500bn worth of foreign reserves.

In important ways, China is now a rich nation. But its insistence that it is still a “developing country” has become a shield to protect itself against vital political and economic changes that matter profoundly to the rest of the world.

China says that it is too underdeveloped to contemplate letting its currency float freely on the foreign exchange markets. Instead it is managing the level of its currency, through capital controls and constant intervention on the foreign-exchange markets. But by holding the value of the renminbi down artificially, China has built up a vast trade surplus and created a major source of tension with the US, causing talk of “global currency wars” and a breakdown of the international economic system.

If China was simply a medium-sized country, the world could shrug off its currency policies. But it is now the world’s largest exporter, the world’s largest manufacturer and its second-largest economy. And yet it is the only major trading nation to use capital controls to prevent its currency rising to market levels. It is that anomaly that is at the heart of current global economic tensions.

Even the Americans are not asking China to move to a fully-convertible currency overnight. The country’s banking system is probably still too unsophisticated to cope with the flows of “hot money” that would generate. But the rest of the world does have a right to expect China to allow its currency to rise faster – and to set a time-frame to move to market-determined exchange rates.

Yet when I made that suggestion to a group of Chinese academics in Shanghai last week I got a distinctly frosty response. If China let the level of the renminbi be determined by the markets, I was told, the US would deliberately use its financial institutions to destabilise China. And another thing: if the Americans care so much about their competitiveness, why didn’t they just pay themselves wages at Chinese levels?

That exchange showed that what should be a technical economic issue – currency management – has now become highly emotional and politicised. So much so, that it now seems easier to call for democracy in China than to call for a stronger currency.

This paradox is personified by Wen Jiabao, the prime minister. In recent months Mr Wen has created a stir by talking on several occasions of the need for China to move towards democracy. Whatever Mr Wen actually means, it is striking that a word that used to be all but banned by the official Chinese media is now being bandied about. Yet on the currency issue, Mr Wen is orthodoxy itself. He recently warned that forcing China to have a stronger currency risked causing social chaos that would then destabilise the whole world.

The terms of the currency and democracy arguments are oddly similar. In both cases the official line has been that China is not yet ready – it is still a developing nation, you see. But with politics, as with economics, that line of argument gets less persuasive as the country gets richer. China now has a higher per-capita gross domestic product than Indonesia, another very populous Asian nation that has already made the transition from dictatorship to democracy.

 

The real Chinese exception when it comes to democracy is not the country’s relative poverty – but its turbulent and tragic history, its huge size and the government’s fear that a more open political system would encourage separatism in the provinces of Tibet and Xinjiang.

Just as it is unrealistic to expect China to move instantly to a floating exchange rate, so it is unreasonable to demand that China should move to one-man, one-vote tomorrow. But both Chinese people and foreigners have an interest in seeing China make a start by considerably improving civil liberties, such as freedom of the press and independence of the courts.

The Chinese government insists that foreigners have no legitimate interest in the country’s internal political development. But once again China’s sheer size makes that argument hard to maintain. In the next 15 years the Chinese economy is likely to become bigger than that of the US. At that stage, for the first time for a century and more, the world’s most powerful economy would not be a democracy. The rest of the world would be legitimately alarmed by that.

The Chinese government likes slogans. In the week in which it became clear that the country’s next president in 2012 will be Xi Jinping, it seems appropriate to propose a couple of slogans for the new man. My suggestions would be “Strong country, strong currency”. Or “Free country, floating exchange rate”.

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035229/en