最近黄金价格的飙涨，不过是新一轮牛市的第一阶段——到2015年，此轮持续数年的牛市将把金价推升至每盎司2000美元以上。推动金价上涨的除了经济因素，还有各机构在购买黄金方式上的创新。但最重要的驱动因素还未出现。
首先，让我再概述一下将金价推升至当前水平的各项因素。经济因素集中体现在货币政策和通胀风险上。一些工业国正努力让本币贬值，并将动用货币政策来支持这一目标。日本为了让日元走软，投入240亿美元进行非冲销式干预。这一政策获得了成功，尽管效果十分短暂。2003-04年间，日本在干预汇市上的花费超过了3500亿美元，有可能轻松地采取同样的做法。这一政策会增加美元流动性，同时促进日本自身的货币增长。美联储(Fed)也越来越明显地暗示，将出台新一轮定量宽松政策。这种重大的政策举动将立即引发投资者抛售美元，并且可能为其它货币的竞争性贬值打下伏笔。
5年前交易所交易基金(ETF)的推出，也对金价起到了推动作用。通过这些基金，投资者能够像购买股票那样轻易地购买金块。2010年第二季度，投资者通过此类基金购买了逾274吨黄金。这些基金的黄金持有量已超过2000吨，成为全球第六大储备者，仅次于国际货币基金组织(IMF)以及美国、德国、法国和意大利等国央行的官方储备。按照目前的增速计算，到2012年底，这些基金将成为第三大储备者。在长期出售黄金之后，各国央行再次转为买家。中国去年透露，已购入450吨黄金。去年10月，印度购入200吨。俄罗斯今年购入71吨黄金，而毛里求斯、泰国、孟加拉和斯里兰卡也进行了少量购买。韩国上周宣布，可能会动用2900亿美元外汇储备中的一部分资金来购买黄金。过去20年间，各国央行总共售出4500吨黄金。
但有可能影响黄金市场的最重要的新因素是中国。中国拥有逾2.4万亿美元的外汇储备，但其中仅有1.7%用于投资黄金。IMF预计，未来5年，中国经常账户盈余将达到2.6万亿美元。如果真是这样，其外汇储备有望升至5万亿-6万亿美元。即使是保持当前的黄金储备比例不变，中国仍需再购入1000至1500吨。但中国很可能选择扩大黄金在外汇储备中的比重，以降低美元贬值造成的冲击，并巩固人民币作为全球货币的地位。
与100年前的美国一样，中国很可能将大量持有黄金，视为展示财力的一种方式。1913年，在美元成为全球货币之前，美国拥有2293吨黄金，而英国、德国、法国和俄国分别仅持有248吨、 439吨、1030吨和1233吨。随着一战使英国的财政状况陷入瘫痪，美国庞大的黄金储备，让美元自然而然地取代了英镑。美国目前的财政政策与英国战时的政策有着诸多相似之处。某种意义上讲，这种政策还可能削弱美元的全球角色。一些中国官员已公开呼吁中国央行购入1万吨黄金。中国央行拒绝就这些提议置评，但如果美国奉行美元贬值的策略，同时人民币的全球化程度逐渐提高，这些提议的吸引力将会越来越大。
还存在一种可能：中国外汇储备的大规模扩张，会导致货币增长加快，并推高其通胀率。如果是这样，中国对黄金的私人需求将骤然增加。自2008年中国解除对黄金市场的管制以来，对黄金的私人需求一直增长迅速。过去12个月，中国私人共购买了143吨黄金，而2009年和2008年仅分别为73吨和17吨。如果投资者察觉到中国的货币增长将导致通胀上升，那么这一数字很容易就会升到数百吨。美国政府一直对人民币盯住美元的政策表示不满，但如果中国开始推行非冲销式汇率干预政策，允许通胀加速，它将停止指责。那样，人民币实际汇率将上升，从而导致中国商品的竞争力下降。
人们无法预测中国何时会购买黄金，但毫无疑问，这将扩大对黄金的需求。未来25年内，来自中国的需求将使其它所有因素都相形见绌，并确保无论美联储采取何种政策，金价都会大幅上扬。
作者是戴维•黑尔全球经济咨询机构(David Hale Global Economics)主席
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035252
The recent gold price rally is the first stage of a multi-year bull market that will drive the gold price to at least $2,000 an ounce by 2015. A mixture of economic factors and innovations in how institutions can purchase the metal have moved prices. But the biggest driver of gold prices is yet to come.
First, a recap of the factors that have taken gold prices to present levels. The economic causes centre on monetary policy and the risk of inflation. Some industrial countries are striving to devalue their currencies and will use monetary policy to support the goal. Japan has spent $24bn on unsterilised intervention trying to weaken the yen. The policy succeeded, albeit briefly. In 2003-04, Japan spent more than $350bn on intervention and could easily do so again. This policy would increase dollar liquidity while nurturing more monetary growth in Japan itself. The Federal Reserve has also been dropping ever bigger hints that it will embark on a policy of further quantitative easing. A significant policy move will trigger immediate selling of the dollar, and could set the stage for competitive devaluations elsewhere.
The gold price has also benefited from the introduction of exchange-traded funds five years ago. These funds allow investors to purchase gold bullion as effortlessly as a share of stock. In the second quarter of 2010, investors purchased more than 274 tonnes of gold through ETFs. Their holdings exceed 2,000 tonnes, and are the sixth-largest in the world after the official stocks at the International Monetary Fund as well as the central banks of the US, Germany, France, and Italy. At current growth rates, these ETFs could rank in third place by the end of 2012. After a long period of selling gold, central banks are also re-emerging as buyers. China revealed last year that it had purchased 450 tonnes of gold. India bought 200 tonnes last October. Russia has bought 71 tonnes of gold this year, while there have been small purchases by Mauritius, Thailand, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. South Korea announced last week that it might use some of its $290bn of foreign exchange reserves to buy gold. During the previous two decades, central banks sold nearly 4,500 tonnes.
But potentially the most important new factor in the gold market is China. China has more than $2,400bn of foreign exchange reserves, but only 1.7 per cent of them are invested in gold. The IMF is projecting that China will run a current account surplus of $2,600bn over the next five years. If it does, its forex reserves could rise to the $5,000bn-$6,000bn range. Even if it keeps the gold share of its reserves constant, it will have to buy another 1,000-1,500 tonnes. Yet the odds are high that China will want to expand the gold share of its reserves to lessen its vulnerability to dollar devaluations and strengthen the renminbi's status as a global currency.
As with the US 100 years ago, China will probably regard large gold holdings as a way to project financial power. In 1913, before the dollar had emerged as a global currency, the US had 2,293 tonnes of gold compared with 248 tonnes for Britain, 439 tonnes for Germany, 1,030 tonnes for France, and 1,233 tonnes for Russia. America's large gold reserves made the dollar a natural replacement for sterling when the first world war crippled Britain's financial position. The US is running a fiscal policy that has parallels with Britain during war time. It could also undermine the dollar's global role at some point. Some Chinese officials have publicly called for the central bank to purchase 10,000 tonnes of gold. The central bank has declined to comment on these proposals, but they will become increasingly attractive if the US pursues a policy of dollar devaluation while the renminbi emerges as a more global currency.
It is also possible that the huge expansion of China's foreign exchange reserves could spawn faster monetary growth and lift its inflation rate. If it does, there could be a sharp rise in Chinese private demand for gold. China has deregulated its gold market since 2008 and private demand is rising rapidly. It totalled 143 tonnes in the past 12 months compared with 73 tonnes in 2009 and 17 tonnes in 2008. It could easily rise to several hundred tonnes if investors perceive that China's monetary growth is going to produce higher inflation. The US government has been critical of China's policy of pegging the renminbi to the dollar, but it would abandon this criticism if China pursued a policy of unsterilised currency intervention and allowed inflation to accelerate. The renminbi would then appreciate in real terms, and make Chinese goods less competitive.
There is no way to predict the timing of China's future gold purchases, but there can be little doubt that they will create a demand for gold that will dwarf all other factors during the next quarter century and guarantee large price gains irrespective of what happens to Federal Reserve policy.
The writer is chairman of David Hale Global Economics
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