2010年10月24日

分析:印度与日本联手遏制中国? Japan and India meet as fears about China grow

 

周一,印度总理曼莫汉•辛格(Manmohan Singh)将与日本首相菅直人(Naoto Kan)在东京会晤,讨论地区安全事宜,其背景是(一些邻国)对于中国在领土边界问题上变得更加自信感到焦虑。

中日两国因存在争议的尖阁诸岛(中国称钓鱼岛)问题发生多年来最严重的外交纠纷之后,日本政府正努力修复与中国政府之间的关系。上月,在一艘中国拖网渔船在钓鱼岛附近与日本巡逻艇相撞之后,日本扣押了渔船船长,中日关系因此急剧恶化。

随后几周,两国均爆发了要求维护本国领海主权的抗议活动。最新情况是,中国警方周日驱散了兰州的反日抗议活动。

亚洲两个最大经济体之间的冲突提醒日本,与中国之间的经济融合存在风险。中国临时中断与日本的高层联系,并在事实上暂停对日稀土出口。稀土在许多电子产品的生产中非常重要。

印度领导层相信,未来一些年,该国将与日本一样,不得不应对与中国之间的合作与竞争关系。印度对于中国在其邻国巴基斯坦、缅甸和斯里兰卡的影响力日益上升的担忧有所加剧,同时印度与中国的双边贸易额目前估计达到了600亿美元左右。

印度政治领导层和军方还担忧中印在其东北部阿鲁纳恰尔邦(Arunachal Pradesh)和克什米尔(Kashmir)的领土纠纷,以及中国海军实力的日益增强。

分析师表示,日本在与中国的海界纠纷中采取的方式,对印度颇有启发——印度对于中国舰船在其向来视为自己势力范围的印度洋海域的存在感到不安。印度领导人担心,一场类似于渔船相撞事件的“意外事故”,会引发中印两国的外交和经济纠纷。

中国在经济上的崛起,也推动其邻国走到了一起,因为它们都对于自己与本地区占主导地位的经济体之间的关系、人民币汇率和中国的贸易顺差感到担忧。

近几个月来,印度已超过中国,成为日本直接外国投资的最大接受国。去年,日本在印度投资约66亿美元,双边贸易额约为200亿美元。

在出访日本之前,辛格表示:“加强印日两国的战略和全球合作伙伴关系,得到了两国政界的全力支持,而且是促进亚洲乃至全球和平、繁荣和稳定的一个因素。”辛格还将访问马来西亚和越南。

译者/何黎

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035172

 

 

Manmohan Singh, India’s prime minister, will meet with his Japanese counterpart Naoto Kan on Monday in Tokyo for discussions about regional security, against a backdrop of anxiety about China’s greater assertiveness over its territorial boundaries.

Tokyo is struggling to repair ties with Beijing after the worst diplomatic row for years, over a disputed chain of islands in the east China Sea. Sino-Japanese relations deteriorated sharply last month after Japan detained a Chinese trawler captain whose boat collided with Japanese patrol ships near the Senkaku islands, known as the Diaoyu islands in Chinese.

Protests over maritime sovereignty have erupted in both countries in subsequent weeks. In the latest flare-up, Chinese police on Sunday broke up anti-Japan protests in the northwestern city of Lanzhou.

The spat between Asia’s two largest economies has been a reminder to Japan about the dangers of its economic integration with China. Beijing temporarily suspended high-level contact with Japan and imposed a de facto halt in exports to Japan of rare earths, which are crucial to production of many electronics products.

India’s leadership believes that in the years to come it, like Japan, will have to manage a relationship of co-operation and rivalry with China. Fear of China’s rising influence in neighbouring Pakistan, Burma and Sri Lanka has grown in India alongside bilateral trade with China now estimated at about $60bn.

The country’s political leadership and armed forces also worry about border disputes in the northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh and Kashmir, and about China’s growing naval power.

Analysts say the manner in which Japan handles its maritime border difficulties with China is instructive to India, which fears the presence of Chinese ships in Indian Ocean waters it has traditionally considered its own. India’s leaders are wary of an “accident”, similar to the trawler incident, sparking a diplomatic and economic stand-off across the Himalayas.

China’s economic rise is also driving neighbouring countries together as they share concerns about their linkages to the dominant economy in the region, the value of its currency and trade surpluses.

India has in recent months overtaken China as the largest recipient of Japanese foreign direct investment. Last year, Japan invested about $6.6bn in India, while bilateral trade was worth about $20bn.

Ahead of a visit that will also take him to Malaysia and Vietnam, Mr Singh said: “The strengthening of the India-Japan strategic and global partnership enjoys fullest support across the political spectrum in both our countries and is a factor of peace, prosperity and stability in Asia and the world.”

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035172/en

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