人们也许会认为，增长放缓将令中国政府担忧。事实上，北京方面将会欢迎中国经济在第三季度同比增长9.6%（低于第一季度的11.9%和第二季度的10.3%）的消息，将其视为一个迹象，说明中国经济正出现亟需的降温。
自针对全球金融危机的财政刺激去年实施以来，中国经济一直有过热的危险。今年首季的超高速增长是不可持续的。最新数据证实，第二季度的放缓并非一次性现象，而是全面减速趋势的一部分。
中国决策者将庆贺自己在过热和停滞之间高超地开辟了一条中间道路。旨在遏制房地产投机和减少放贷的先发制人措施（中国央行今年已四次提高准备金率）显然起到了帮助作用。刺激措施的逐渐撤回也有贡献。
但在庆祝的同时不应放弃忧患意识。数据表明，中国在推行结构改革方面几乎毫无进展，而此类改革对中国乃至全球经济的未来增长是不可或缺的。
结构改革的一个主要方面是提振国内需求。相关证据并不令人鼓舞。今年前九个月，家庭消费仅同比增长约7%。相比之下，固定资产投资增长了24%。中国必须实现消费与投资的更好平衡。
同样令人震惊的是，第三季度中国贸易顺差大幅增长，达到约650亿美元，高于前两个季度贸易顺差之和。如果全球第二大经济体继续“独吞”这么多需求，世界将面临艰难前景。人民币低估（使进口过于昂贵）对此没有帮助。
中国官方警惕通胀（9月份达到3.6%），并在周二将利率提高了0.25个百分点。但是，有一点通胀是件好事：它提高了人民币实际汇率，增加了国内购买力。
北京方面还可以采取其它措施提振消费。建设更强有力的社会保障网络和让工资上涨，将起到显著作用。
自出现危机过后的繁荣以来，中国迄今成功避免了“硬着陆”。但在应对实现中国经济再平衡的更大挑战方面，中国还有大量工作要做。它越早开始越好。
译者/和风
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035142
One might expect slowing growth to be a cause for concern for Chinese authorities. In reality, Beijing will welcome the news that China’s economy grew by 9.6 per cent in the third quarter from a year earlier – down from 11.9 per cent in the first quarter and 10.3 per cent in the second – as a sign of much needed cooling.
China has been in danger of overheating since its crisis-induced fiscal stimulus kicked in last year. The first-quarter sprint was unsustainable. The latest figures confirm that the second quarter was not a one-off but part of a broader trend of deceleration.
Authorities will congratulate themselves on skilfully carving a middle way between overheating and stalling. Pre-emptive measures to restrict property speculation and curb lending – the central bank has raised the reserve ratio four times this year – have clearly helped. The wearing-off of stimulus measures has also contributed.
But celebrations should be tempered. The data suggest China has made little progress in carrying out the structural reforms so essential to its – and the global economy’s – future growth.
Chief among these are measures to boost domestic demand. The evidence is not encouraging. Household consumption was only about 7 per cent higher in the first nine months of this year compared with the same period last year. In contrast, fixed asset investment increased 24 per cent. A better balance between consumption and investment must be struck.
Equally alarming is the explosion of China’s trade surplus in the third quarter. At about $65bn, it is greater than the surpluses for the first and second quarters combined. The world is in for a tough time if its second-largest economy continues to suck up so much demand. Undervaluation of the renminbi – which keeps imports too expensive – is not helping.
Authorities are wary of inflation, which hit 3.6 per cent in September, and they raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points on Tuesday. But a little inflation is welcome: it raises the renminbi’s real exchange rate and increases domestic purchasing power.
There are other measures Beijing could take to boost consumption. Building a stronger social safety net and allowing wages to rise would make a big difference.
China has so far succeeded in avoiding a hard landing after its post-crisis boom. But it has much more to do in order to meet the even greater challenge of rebalancing its economy. The sooner it starts the better.
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