盯住美元让香港获得了不少好处。自27年前实施盯住美元汇率制度以来，香港已经经受住了至少六次外部冲击。对于受到保护不多的经济体而言，这些冲击本可以导致它们彻底偏离轨道。不过，随着美元下跌至距1973年后贸易加权汇率最低点仅3个百分点之遥，加之北京开始向这个特别行政区注入大量的人民币流动性，香港应该开始考虑其它选择了。
香港金融管理局(HKMA)心里很清楚：它选择“锚货币(anchor currency)”，应该考虑两个标准。第一，是其对外贸易与金融交易最主要的计价货币是什么。这一点显然美元仍占上风：今年上半年，香港与中国大陆以人民币计价的贸易为530亿美元，仅占到其总体贸易极其微小的一部分。第二，管理锚货币的货币体制是否稳定。这一点如今有点麻烦。蒂姆•盖特纳(Tim Geithner)此前出人意料地否认称，美国并没有在故意压低自己的货币。这对香港金管局是一个提醒：它不应该再轻率地相信，美国货币政策具有“无与伦比的可信性”。
对自身与美国经济间日益严重的错配，香港也不应再视若无睹。正如咨询公司China Analytics所指出的，这已越来越成为一个社会问题：香港的雇主们从大陆生产率的迅速增长与较低的工资水平中获益，但他们提高工资的幅度，却更多是与美国的产出与通胀率挂钩。重新选择锚货币——或者人民币、或者一篮子货币——的提议，不应被不假思索地拒绝。至少，公众应该参与讨论，而不是只听金管局的例行回应。如果一场汇率战争的序幕真的已经拉开，那么，香港是时候站队了。
Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035131
Sticking with the US dollar has served Hong Kong well. Since it introduced a linked exchange-rate system 27 years ago, the city has endured at least half a dozen external shocks that would have knocked less-protected economies well and truly off course. Yet as the greenback edges to within 3 per cent of its post-73 trade-weighted low, while Beijing starts to swamp its special administrative region with renminbi liquidity, it is worth examining the alternatives.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is clear enough: its choice of “anchor currency” should take two tests into account. The first – the predominant denomination of external trade and financial transactions – still clearly favours the US dollar: renminbi-denominated trade between Hong Kong and the mainland was Rmb53bn in the first half, a tiny fraction of the whole. The second – the stability of the monetary regime governing that currency – is where it gets problematic. Tim Geithner’s extraordinary denial that the US is deliberately weakening its currency is a reminder that the HKMA should no longer talk blithely of the “unparalleled credibility” of US monetary policy.
The growing misalignment of the Hong Kong and US economies can no longer be ignored. As advisory firm China Analytics points out, this is increasingly a social issue: local employers have benefited from rapid productivity growth and low wages on the mainland while granting wage hikes more in line with output and inflation in the US. A re-pegging – either to the renminbi or to a basket of currencies – should not be dismissed out of hand. At the very least, the debate deserves a public airing, rather than the stock response from the HKMA. If the world really is witnessing the opening salvoes of a currency war, it’s time for Hong Kong to take sides.
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