玉米、大豆和小麦的价格在过去几个月里显著回升，冲击着社会的方方面面：消费者看到超市商品涨价了；企业的利润空间被压缩了；而新兴经济体的政策制定者不得不着手应对粮食价格大幅上涨的问题。像往常一样，有人把上述农产品价格的上涨归咎于投机者的参与。
但真实情况就隐藏在数字当中。在投机性多头头寸接近创纪录高点之际，库存严重吃紧，某些情况下甚至迫近历史低点。更大的挑战还在后面：若想实现可持续的供需平衡，农产品价格就必须进一步上涨，因为只有这样才能鼓励农民将迫切需要的更多土地投入上述作物的种植，而这副重担主要落在巴西等新兴市场国家肩上。我们早就提出，全球玉米和大豆供需紧张，特别是考虑到天气状况经常出人意料，而且如果价格不上涨，产量就将无法满足需求，从而使供需状况进一步收紧，达到岌岌可危的水平。
在美国，玉米歉收已促使农业部下调了对玉米收成的预估值，从每英亩164.7蒲式耳的创纪录水平下调至每英亩155.8蒲式耳，而且可能进一步向下修正。即使能够实现目前估计的收成，美国的玉米库存也将下滑至年需求量的6.7%这一难以维系的水平。全球近60%的玉米出口来自美国。
1995-96年度，玉米库存需求比曾降至5%。次年春季，面对由此造成的价格上涨，美国农民将玉米种植面积扩大了近800万英亩，使库存需求比回升至更适宜的水平。
但在今天，能用来应对紧张局面的空地要少得多，尤其是考虑到棉花和小麦还在争抢种植面积。美国国内对牲畜和乙醇的需求日趋增长，加上在新兴市场收入强劲增长的支撑下，玉米出口需求也在不断增加，美国农民明年至少要扩种250万英亩玉米，才能让供需状况稳定在今天已然吃紧的水平上。
在短期内，我们认为，玉米价格至少要（从当前的每蒲式耳5.60美元）上涨到每蒲式耳6美元、甚至可能是7美元，才能抑制需求并激励农民去种植玉米，而不是大豆、棉花和小麦。玉米处在当前的价格水平，畜牧业和乙醇行业总体上是盈利的，从而催生出更多需求——根据我们的数字，每年6.6亿加仑的自愿性乙醇需求便要消耗近2.4亿蒲式耳的玉米，这还没有考虑强制性乙醇需求。
如果玉米价格保持在当前水平，库存会进一步吃紧，明年春天就有必要进一步扩大玉米种植面积，而为了争抢到土地，玉米价格必须要涨得更高。鉴于短期内供应面能做出的反应微乎其微，那么需求就必须受到抑制。
我们预计，未来几年玉米价格将继续上涨。
我们的论点（2008年首次提出）很明确。我们认为，单靠美国的产量不足以满足日益增长的国内及出口需求。如果玉米价格如我们预想的那样上涨，玉米或许真的可以得到所需的种植面积。不过，这很可能会挤占大豆的种植面积，因为总种植面积已然逼近历史高点。这最终将推高大豆价格，因为随着产量下滑，大豆的供需也将吃紧。
我们认为，只有价格走高，从而鼓励农民扩大急需的种植面积，才能实现可持续的供需均衡——巴西在这方面显示出了潜力。美国目前的生产已接近产能上限。但巴西基础设施建设不足，预示着价格的继续上涨可能会促使该国农民扩大种植面积。我们估计，大豆价格必须持续高于当前的每蒲式耳大约12美元，才能激励巴西马托格拉索省的农民增加种植面积。
虽然指责投机者很容易，但现实情况却是：产量跟不上需求，从而造成供需吃紧。这是经济规律使然。
作者为摩根史坦利大宗商品研究部主管
译者/汪洋
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035254
Corn, soyabean and wheat prices, have rallied markedly over the last several months. The impact is being felt by consumers facing higher prices at the supermarket, companies whose margins have been squeezed and policymakers in emerging economies who are having to deal with sharply higher food inflation. As is often the case, some are blaming the participation of speculators for these moves higher.
But the truth lies in the numbers. While speculative long positions are at near-record highs, inventories have tightened meaningfully and to near-record lows in some cases. Even greater challenges lie ahead. Prices will need to move higher if a sustainable equilibrium is to be achieved as only higher prices will encourage farmers to devote much-needed extra land to these crops and this burden rests largely on emerging markets like Brazil. We have long argued that global corn and bean balances were tight, especially given the tendency of weather to surprise and that without higher prices production would fall short of demand, tightening balances to untenable levels.
In the US, poor corn yields have prompted the US Department of Agriculture to cut its corn yield estimate from an expected record high of 164.7 bushels an acre to 155.8 bu/acre – and further downward revisions may still be likely. Even if the current yield estimate is realised, stocks in the US – which is responsible for nearly 60 per cent of the world’s corn exports – are poised to fall to an untenable 6.7 per cent of annual demand.
In 1995/96, stocks adjusted for demand fell to 5 per cent. The following spring, US farmers responded to the resulting increase in price by hiking corn acreage by nearly 8m acres, lifting stocks-to-use back to more comfortable levels.
However, there is much less spare capacity to respond today, particularly with cotton and wheat competing for acres. Growing domestic demand for livestock and ethanol, together with growing export demand, supported by robust income growth in emerging markets, will require US farmers to plant at least 2.5m more acres of corn next year, and this to simply keep balances steady at today’s tight levels.
In the near term, we see corn prices rising to at least $6 a bushel (from current levels of about $5.60) and possibly up to $7 a bushel as demand needs to be rationed and farmers need the incentive to plant corn, instead of soyabeans, cotton and wheat. At current prices, the livestock and ethanol industries are broadly profitable, encouraging additional demand – on our numbers, discretionary ethanol demand of 660m gallons per year is consuming nearly 240m bushels of corn in excess of what is mandated.
If prices stay at current levels, inventories will tighten even further, resulting in the need for even greater acreage next spring and by extension even higher prices to vie for acreage. Demand must be rationed as the supply response in the short-run is trivial.
We see prices remaining elevated for the next several years.
Our thesis, first outlined in 2008, is straightforward. We believe that US production alone does not have the breadth to satiate growing domestic and export demand. If corn prices rally as we envision, corn may indeed garner the acreage it needs. This acreage, however, will likely come from soyabeans as aggregate planted acreage is already near record highs, ultimately resulting in higher soyabean prices as that balance tightens as production is lost.
In our view, a sustainable equilibrium will only result if prices move higher to encourage a much-needed increase in expansion – and here Brazil shows potential. The US is already operating near capacity. However, a dearth of infrastructure in Brazil portends higher prices before farmers there will sow new areas. We estimate that soyabean prices will need to remain sustainably above current levels around $12 a bushel to incentivise farmers in Mato Grasso to add acreage.
While it is easy to blame the speculators, the reality is that production is not keeping pace with demand, and balances are tightening as a result. This is economics.
Hussein Allidina is head of commodities research at Morgan Stanley
没有评论:
发表评论