韩国总统李明博(Lee Myung-bak)呼吁朝鲜借鉴中国经济模式，理由是只有“共同繁荣”与和平才能带来最终的统一。
李明博在接受英国《金融时报》采访时发表的言论，也许会令近期觉察到首尔方面失望情绪的观察人士感到意外，这种情绪针对的是中国政府拒绝谴责平壤在3月份击沉一艘韩国军舰。但李明博表示，他明白中方在私下所持的观点与公开场合的声明有所不同，目的是为了维护朝鲜半岛的稳定。
“我真的希望（朝鲜的）金（正日）委员长到中国——当今的中国——好好看看，亲眼见证一下，当你向世界开放后，一个国家的繁荣景象会发生怎样的变化，”李明博表示。
中国官员曾在5月份接待到访的金正日，带他参观了一系列港口和工厂，希望启发他推动深陷困境的朝鲜的发展。但是，传统上对中国怀有疑心的朝鲜迄今抵制根本性改革，这种改革带有政治和社会变革的风险。
咨询机构“控制风险”(Control Risks)朝鲜问题高级分析师安德鲁•吉洛姆(Andrew Gilholm)表示，李明博的话偏于乐观。“朝鲜并不能承受那种全面改革。中国能够成功地分隔经济和政治领域，但朝鲜则要脆弱得多，”他表示。他还补充称，只有金家王朝终结，才能使统一有望成真。
多数韩国人希望国家统一，但许多人担心重建贫穷、挨饿的朝鲜所需的潜在成本。据韩国政府估计，重建朝鲜大约需要1万亿美元。李明博表示，朝鲜应当付出努力，缩小与韩国之间越来越大的差距。目前韩国经济总量达到朝鲜的38倍。
不过，和平仍十分渺茫。李明博表示，3月份朝鲜一艘潜艇发射鱼雷、击沉一艘韩国军舰后，朝鲜仍是一股“好战的”势力。他还强调称，朝鲜确定金正日的三儿子金正恩(Kim Jong-eun)为接班人后，平壤方面没有任何缓和迹象。
今年早些时候，李明博曾提议开征一项统一税，以筹备国家统一后的建设成本。他否认自己提议这一税种是因为担心朝鲜突然崩溃，他表示，这是为了提醒韩国人记住未来的挑战。
尽管呼吁金正日从中国得到发展经济的启迪，但李明博强调称，平壤更深地陷入北京的政治影响对首尔是“难以接受的”。但他表示，如果朝鲜的内部分歧导致政权突然垮台，韩国也同样难以接受。
他能够期盼的最佳出路是渐进式改革。“朝鲜将会改变，尽管速度很慢，”他表示。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035261
Lee Myung-bak, South Korea’s president, has called on North Korea to emulate China’s economic model, as only “common prosperity” and peace could lead to an eventual reunification.
Mr Lee’s remarks in an interview with the Financial Times may surprise observers who have detected frustration from Seoul about Beijing’s refusal to condemn Pyongyang over the sinking of a South Korean warship in March. But Mr Lee said he knew China’s private views differed from what it said in public to preserve stability on the peninsula.
“I would really like [North Korea’s] chairman Kim [Jong-il] to see a lot more of China, the China of today, witnessing with his own eyes the result of what can happen to a country’s prosperity when you open up to the world,” Mr Lee said.
Chinese officials in May treated Mr Kim to a series of visits to ports and factories that they hoped could inspire him to develop his destitute country. But North Korea, which is historically suspicious of China, has resisted fundamental reforms, which carry the risks of political and social change.
Andrew Gilholm, senior North Asia analyst at the Control Risks consultancy, said Mr Lee was being highly optimistic. “North Korea could not really survive sweeping reforms of that kind. China could successfully keep the economic and political spheres separate but North Korea is much more fragile,” he said, adding that only the demise of the Kim dynasty would make unification likely.
Most South Koreans want reunification but many fear the potential costs of rebuilding the poor, starving country, estimated by the south’s government at about $1,000bn. Mr Lee said North Korea should work to narrow the yawning divide with the south, where the economy is 38 times bigger.
However, peace remains elusive. Mr Lee said Pyongyang remained a “belligerent” force after one of its submarines torpedoed a South Korean ship in March. He also stressed there was no sign of a detente from Pyongyang while Kim Jong-eun, the third son of Kim Jong-il, was being styled for power.
Earlier this year, Mr Lee proposed a unification tax to help prepare for the costs of a united Korea. He denied he had proposed this levy due to fears the North could suddenly collapse, but to remind South Koreans of future challenges.
Despite his call for Mr Kim to take economic inspiration from China, Mr Lee stressed it was “unpalatable” for Seoul that Pyongyang fall even more deeply under Beijing’s political influence. But it was equally unpalatable for the south that internal divisions in the north could provoke a sudden collapse, he said.
The best he could hope for was gradual reform. “North Korea will change, albeit in a very slow fashion,” he said.
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