沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)正试图让人替换自己。现年39岁的托德•康姆斯(Todd Combs)将负责运营伯克希尔哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)投资组合中的“可观比例”。与“股神”本人一样，康姆斯拥有哥伦比亚商学院的MBA，并且也是从管理对冲基金开始从事投资工作的。三个月前传言称有可能接班的李路也有同样的资历，显然他现在不想要这份工作。
但是，没有人（甚至包括巴菲特本人在内）能够指望复制沃伦•巴菲特的投资表现。按照人们的描述，这种表现是超乎寻常、而且无法用运气来解释的。人们不能指望任何人将来重复这种表现，尤其是从目前这么庞大的投资组合开始。在失败不可避免的情况下，为什么会有人想要这份工作？巴菲特隐退之后，为什么伯克希尔要保留其当前的形式？
这一切之所以问题很大，是因为巴菲特的出色投资成功，使他能够逃脱其它任何上市公司都逃不过的透明度要求。接班过程的透明度就像是泥泞。人们不清楚康姆斯究竟将做些什么，而且伯克希尔从未证实其为李路安排的角色。
这些关切尚未玷污巴菲特的光环，但它们一直影响着股价。伯克希尔目前股价为账面价值的大约1.5倍，是美国股市整体平均市净率的三分之二左右。尽管巴菲特拥有令人惊叹的持续能力，能够年复一年地增加账面价值，伯克希尔的估值仍类似于一家典型的金融公司。对价值投资者来说，这种实际上的“巴菲特折扣”是一个极好的理由，让他们多年来买入股票，并随着这位伟大的投资者继续取得轻松成功而获利。只要巴菲特仍健在（现年80岁的他看上去精力充沛），与他对赌将是不明智的。但是，伴随着伯克希尔在巴菲特之后的未来风险似乎表明，投资者应当要求更大的折扣。
Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析
译者/和风
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035219
Warren Buffett is trying to replace himself. Like the Sage himself, Todd Combs – the 39-year-old who is to be given a “significant proportion” of Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio to run – holds an MBA from Columbia Business School and got his start in the investment world by managing hedge funds. The same applies to Li Lu, tagged as an heir three months ago, who apparently does not now want the job.
But no one – not even Mr Buffett – can hope to replicate Warren Buffett. His performance, as illustrated, is extraordinary and cannot be explained by luck. Nobody can be expected to replicate this in the future, especially starting with the current gigantic portfolio. With failure inevitable, why would anyone want the job – and why should Berkshire remain in anything like its current form post-Buffett?
This is all the more problematic because Mr Buffett’s exceptional investment success allows him to get away with a level of transparency that would be intolerable at any other public company. The succession process is as clear as mud. It is unclear exactly what Mr Combs will be doing, and Berkshire never provided any confirmation of the role planned for Mr Li.
Such concerns have not tarnished the Buffett aura, but they have long affected the share price. Berkshire’s shares currently trade at about 1.5 times book value, about two-thirds the average price-to-book multiple for the US stock market as a whole. In spite of Buffett’s amazingly consistent ability to increase that book value each year, Berkshire’s valuation is still similar to a typical financial company. For value investors, this effective Buffett discount has been a great reason to buy the shares over the years – and profit as the great man continued his seemingly effortless success. While he is around, and at 80 he still seems to have plenty of energy, it would be unwise ever to bet against him. But the risks that attend Berkshire’s post-Buffett future suggest investors should demand a bigger discount.
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