如果预期足够低，超越预期就不会很困难。20国集团(G20)财长们在韩国成功地做到了这一点。既然不可能改变各国政策，那么就某些漂亮话达成一致也是一种成就——远胜于发生公开冲突。此外，国际货币基金组织(IMF)的治理将不再那么缺乏代表性。虽然如此，经济全球化仍远远领先于政治全球化。不过话说回来，这种新旧全球秩序的转变本来就很棘手。
亚洲保险公司友邦保险(AIA)是这种转变的典范。美国国际集团(AIG)刚刚将友邦保险在香港上市，筹资180亿美元。从1919年成立至今，友邦保险一直在将从亚洲客户那里获得的利润送到主要为西方人的所有者手中。以AIG愚蠢的信贷押注为表现形式的西方金融没落，迫使AIG出售了友邦——主要面向中国和其它发展中世界的股东。具有讽刺意味的是：作为友邦保险“亚洲化”的一部分，AIG决定给友邦保险任命一位新老板，而这位新老板是一位英国人——马克•塔克(Mark Tucker)。
直到2000年，友邦保险过去的安排还具有地缘政治意义。当时，富国仍然可以随意摆布贫穷的亚洲人。富裕的七国集团(G7)仅占全球人口的12%，却生产了全球72%的GDP。在上次全球金融危机中陷入困境的正是贫穷国家。
G7目前正在没落。据IMF的资料显示，预计2011年，G7将占全球GDP的53%。此次危机及其财政和货币后果破坏了富裕国家作为各种金融智慧传播者的可信度。然而，正如友邦保险去西方寻找领导人一样，在寻找富裕客户和工程及会计标准等各项专业知识方面，发展中世界也仍在指望着日趋没落的大国。这听起来像是一个解决双方不满的好方法。
Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析
译者/君悦
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035177
If expectations are low enough, they can be surpassed without too much trouble. The G20 finance ministers managed that in Korea. Since national policy changes were out of the question, agreement on some fine words was an accomplishment – far preferable to an open fight. Besides, the International Monetary Fund’s governance is to be made less unrepresentative. For all that, economic globalisation is still running far ahead of its political counterpart. But then again, the transition from the waning to the emerging global order is a tricky business.
AIA, the Asian insurer just floated in Hong Kong for $18bn by American International Group, is an exemplar of the shift. From its founding in 1919 until now, it was a company that sent profits earned from Asian customers to mostly western owners. Western financial decadence, in the form of AIG’s foolish credit bets, forced a sale, largely to Chinese and other developing world shareholders. But there is an irony: one part of the “Asianising” of AIA was the decision to appoint a new boss. He turned out to be an Englishman, Mark Tucker.
As recently as 2000, the old AIA arrangement made geopolitical sense. Rich countries could still push poor Asians around. The rich G7 (which included Japan) made up only 12 per cent of the world’s population but produced 72 per cent of global gross domestic product. And then it was the poor countries that had messed up in the last global financial crisis.
The G7 is now in retreat, at an expected 53 per cent of world GDP in 2011, according to the IMF. The crisis and its fiscal and monetary aftermath destroyed the rich old world’s credibility as a purveyor of any sort of financial wisdom. And yet, just as AIA turned west for its leadership, the developing world still looks to the declining powers for affluent customers, and for expertise in everything from engineering to accounting standards. It sounds like a recipe for mutual resentment.
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035177/en
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