中
国计划今年投入近2,000亿美元进行保障房建设。中国政府开始加大力度，在保持住房建设产业持续强劲的同时，解决民众普遍抱怨的买不起房的问题。中国的建设产业推动了国内外的经济增长。
Associated Press
北京，在一次由政府组织的参观保障房项目的活动中，保安在小区门口站岗。
自2009年中期中国房地产市场的萧条期结束以来，中国房价大幅攀升，很多大城市的新房均价都出现了两位数的上涨。房价飙升让人担心房地产市场可能存在危险的泡沫，也让一些人对于很多中低收入人群买不起房的现象愈加气愤，买房正日益被视为中国城市居民的一项权利。
中国政府去年采取了一系列抑制房价飞涨的措施，提高购房首付比例，声称处罚投机者，并在两个大型城市试行房产税这一新税项。去年10月以来，中国为防止出现更大范围的通胀还三次加息。
但有关当局不愿对房价打压得过于厉害，担心这会让房地产业一蹶不振，而该行业在中国经济增长中占有很大比例，并且还推动全球对钢铁、水泥、铜及其它原材料的需求。
中国住房和城乡建设部副部长齐骥在周三的记者会上宣布了今年保障房的投资规模，这是北京方面发出的一个最新也是最有力的信号，即中国为解决住房问题正集中精力扩大保障房建设。这些投资要满足中国国务院总理温家宝上周六宣布的今年建设1,000万套保障房所需的资金要求。中国今年计划建设的保障房在数量上远远多于2010年动工建设的590万套保障房，也超过去年售出的900万套商品房。
全球经济学家和投资者一直在密切关注中国如何应对房地产市场出现的问题。据分析师估计，仅用于住宅房地产建设的投资就大约占到了中国国内生产总值10％，这个数字还不包括对钢铁等原材料增加的需求。
在最近的一份报告中，渣打银行（Standard Chartered）的经济学家将中国房地产建设可能出现的崩溃列为2011年中国重大"风险"之一。他们在报告中写道，由于未售出的房屋库存水平很高以及最近给房地产市场降温的措施成功地转变了购房人的情绪，房地产建设低迷可能影响巨大。房地产市场的硬着陆可能重创大宗商品市场。
市场参与者希望，如果商品房建设回落，那么保障房建设加速有助于支撑房地产市场的建设和经济增长。
但这种策略也有风险。近年来，尽管存在困难，有关部门仍一直在努力实现保障房建设的目标，因为地产开发商和控制土地的地方政府更喜欢高价房地产项目。去年，在中央政府几番规劝并誓言问责无法完成保障房建设目标的地方官员后，全国保障房建设的目标才得以实现。
中国领导人有时会使用强硬的语言来显示他们对扩建保障房的严肃态度。上个月，温家宝总理在和网友在线聊天时说，我没有调查你们每一个房地产商的利润，但是我认为房地产商作为社会的一个成员，你们应该对社会尽到应有的责任。你们的身上也应该流着道德的血液。
政府需要开发商是因为在保障房建设上预计要支出的1.3万亿元资金中，政府只能提供其中的一部分。齐骥说中央和地方政府将提供所需的5000亿元资金（其中约四分之一列入中央财政预算），剩下的资金将通过社会机构来开发运行以及保障性住房的实际居住人支付。
还有一个风险就是，如果保障房建设推广成功，随后可能造成更多问题。这是因为将土地用于建设经适房项目会减少商品房建设用地，导致商品房价格进一步上涨。
Aaron Back / Esther Fung
（更新完成）
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
China targeted total spending of nearly $200 billion this year for the construction of subsidized housing, as the government steps up a campaign to address widespread complaints over the lack of affordable housing while also maintaining construction activity that has driven economic growth in China and abroad.
The 1.3 trillion yuan ($198 billion) goal for spending on subsidized housing represents a two-thirds increase from the roughly 780 billion yuan for 2010. Only a portion of those sums comes from spending by central and local governments, with the rest coming from bank credit and corporate investment.
Property prices have risen sharply in China since a market slump ended in mid-2009, with double-digit increases in average prices for new housing in many major cities. The surge has raised fears of a potentially dangerous bubble in the market and fueled anger that prices have been pushed out of reach for many middle- and lower-income Chinese in a population where homeownership is increasingly seen as a right by urban residents.
The government in the past year took a series of measures to rein in runaway prices, raising minimum down-payment levels, threatening punishment for speculators, and experimenting with new real-estate taxes in two big cities. It has also raised interest rates three times since October to stem broader inflation.
But authorities have been reluctant to crack down too harshly, for fear of derailing an industry that accounts for a major share of China's growth and that propels global demand for steel, cement, copper and other raw materials.
Wednesday's announcement, at a press conference by Qi Ji, deputy minister of housing and urban-rural development, is the latest and strongest sign that Beijing is focusing on expanding state-backed housing to address the market's problem. The funds are to meet a target announced Saturday by Premier Wen Jiabao to build 10 million units of subsidized housing this year. That is up from the 5.9 million subsidized units that were started in 2010, and more than the nine million units of nonsubsidized commercial housing that were sold last year.
Global economists and investors have been watching closely how China deals with the problems in its property market. Investment in residential real-estate construction alone makes up roughly 10% of China's gross domestic product, analysts estimate -- a figure that doesn't including the added demand for raw materials like steel.
In a recent report, economists from Standard Chartered listed a possible collapse in real-estate construction in China as one of their key 'risk scenarios' for China in 2011. Given high levels of unsold housing inventories and 'the strong possibility that the recent cooling measures successfully turn buyer sentiment, this construction downturn could be dramatic,' they said in a report. 'Commodity markets would be hit badly' by a hard landing in the sector, it said.
Market participants hope the subsidized housing drive can help prop up construction, and thus economic growth, if private housing construction falters.
But there are risks to the strategy. Authorities have struggled in recent years to meet their targets for subsidized housing construction, because both developers and the local governments that control land in China prefer higher-price property projects. Last year, the government made its target only after repeated exhortations from the central government and promises to hold local officials responsible for any shortfall.
Officials have used sometimes tough language to show they are serious about expanding affordable housing. 'I have something to say to property companies,' Premier Wen Jiabao said in a chat with Internet users last month. 'I haven't investigated profit margins at every single one of you, but I believe developers have a social responsibility, they should have virtue in their blood.'
The government needs developers because it is providing only a fraction of the 1.3 trillion yuan in projected spending. Mr. Qi said central and local governments will provide 500 billion yuan of the total -- about a fourth of that is budgeted to come from Beijing -- with the remaining amount to come from 'companies and institutions in society,' as well as payments by the recipients of the affordable housing.
There is also a risk that if the subsidized housing push succeeds, it could create more problems later. That is because devoting land to the low-cost housing program will reduce the supply available in the commercial market, which could cause prices there to rise even further.
Aaron Back / Esther Fung
The 1.3 trillion yuan ($198 billion) goal for spending on subsidized housing represents a two-thirds increase from the roughly 780 billion yuan for 2010. Only a portion of those sums comes from spending by central and local governments, with the rest coming from bank credit and corporate investment.
Property prices have risen sharply in China since a market slump ended in mid-2009, with double-digit increases in average prices for new housing in many major cities. The surge has raised fears of a potentially dangerous bubble in the market and fueled anger that prices have been pushed out of reach for many middle- and lower-income Chinese in a population where homeownership is increasingly seen as a right by urban residents.
The government in the past year took a series of measures to rein in runaway prices, raising minimum down-payment levels, threatening punishment for speculators, and experimenting with new real-estate taxes in two big cities. It has also raised interest rates three times since October to stem broader inflation.
But authorities have been reluctant to crack down too harshly, for fear of derailing an industry that accounts for a major share of China's growth and that propels global demand for steel, cement, copper and other raw materials.
Wednesday's announcement, at a press conference by Qi Ji, deputy minister of housing and urban-rural development, is the latest and strongest sign that Beijing is focusing on expanding state-backed housing to address the market's problem. The funds are to meet a target announced Saturday by Premier Wen Jiabao to build 10 million units of subsidized housing this year. That is up from the 5.9 million subsidized units that were started in 2010, and more than the nine million units of nonsubsidized commercial housing that were sold last year.
Global economists and investors have been watching closely how China deals with the problems in its property market. Investment in residential real-estate construction alone makes up roughly 10% of China's gross domestic product, analysts estimate -- a figure that doesn't including the added demand for raw materials like steel.
In a recent report, economists from Standard Chartered listed a possible collapse in real-estate construction in China as one of their key 'risk scenarios' for China in 2011. Given high levels of unsold housing inventories and 'the strong possibility that the recent cooling measures successfully turn buyer sentiment, this construction downturn could be dramatic,' they said in a report. 'Commodity markets would be hit badly' by a hard landing in the sector, it said.
Market participants hope the subsidized housing drive can help prop up construction, and thus economic growth, if private housing construction falters.
But there are risks to the strategy. Authorities have struggled in recent years to meet their targets for subsidized housing construction, because both developers and the local governments that control land in China prefer higher-price property projects. Last year, the government made its target only after repeated exhortations from the central government and promises to hold local officials responsible for any shortfall.
Officials have used sometimes tough language to show they are serious about expanding affordable housing. 'I have something to say to property companies,' Premier Wen Jiabao said in a chat with Internet users last month. 'I haven't investigated profit margins at every single one of you, but I believe developers have a social responsibility, they should have virtue in their blood.'
The government needs developers because it is providing only a fraction of the 1.3 trillion yuan in projected spending. Mr. Qi said central and local governments will provide 500 billion yuan of the total -- about a fourth of that is budgeted to come from Beijing -- with the remaining amount to come from 'companies and institutions in society,' as well as payments by the recipients of the affordable housing.
There is also a risk that if the subsidized housing push succeeds, it could create more problems later. That is because devoting land to the low-cost housing program will reduce the supply available in the commercial market, which could cause prices there to rise even further.
Aaron Back / Esther Fung
没有评论:
发表评论