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敲一下巴西总统罗塞夫（Dilma Rousseff）说的话，能看出富士康（Foxconn）董事长郭台铭肯定对巴西作为制造业基地青睐有加。不过若果真如此，郭台铭态度转变的可谓相当彻底。在北京对中国进行国事访问的罗塞夫周二说，富士康正在考虑向拉丁美洲最大经济体投资120亿美元。富士康是鸿海精密工业股份有限公司的商标名称，是郭台铭创建并经营的台湾电子产品巨头。
Thomas Lee/Bloomberg
员工在位于深圳市龙华科技园区的鸿海精密工业股份有限公司生产线上工作.这个园区又被称作"富士康城".
这番话显然让鸿海措手不及。公司在周三花了大半天时间拿出一份简短声明，在其中称赞了巴西的潜力及其战略位置，模糊地谈到会在那里进一步开发投资机会。这并不奇怪：巴西是个大市场，鸿海在那里已经有一座工厂，与在匈牙利、波兰、捷克、斯洛伐克、俄罗斯、土耳其、印度、越南、马来西亚、美国和墨西哥一样，当然还有中国，鸿海及其子公司在中国雇佣了近100万名工人。
但可以说，至少在去年底之前，郭台铭对巴西作为主要制造中心的条件并不是那么倾心。60岁的郭台铭素来直言不讳。他去年9月在鸿海位于深圳的大型园区接受了《华尔街日报》的采访，在近三个小时的采访中，对于巴西在制造业能在任一方面与中国的实力相比这种观点，郭台铭表示这是无稽之谈：
然后还有巴西。巴西工人的工资很高。但巴西人只要听到"足球"就会停止工作。然后都开始跳舞。这很疯狂……所以对于本地市场，巴西（作为制造基地）是可以的。巴西有很多矿产。有伟大的亚马逊河，因此有很好的水力发电。但如果要往美国运东西，从巴西（比从中国）运花的时间和财力更多。
公平来说，劳动力未能吸引郭台铭的并非巴西一个国家。这段采访讨论的是，随着中国这座世界工厂逐渐受到其他发展中国家的冲击，成本增长可能正导致中国失去优势。郭台铭对此不赞同，他说他对中国内陆地区下注数十亿美元，用于替代深圳这样传统的沿海地区制造业地点。他可能是在华制造业方面世界最顶级的专家。
郭台铭对印度的看法是：
印度是个建工厂的好地方吗？……印度有自己的问题……贫富差距比中国大。基尼系数比中国高。印度算是个国家吗？每个区都有自己的税法。印度就像是美利坚合众国建立之前的美国……因此如果印度想成为世界工厂，软件是可以的，但硬件建设还需假以时日。我认为至少需要20年……印度的工资也在迅速增长。现在每个人都能上网。无论中国工人赚多少，印度工人也想赚同样多。所以，中国有什么可担心的？
郭台铭对俄罗斯的看法：
我7月在成都签了份合同。他们会在10月完成第一部分，有八座大楼……三个月而已！我们正在圣彼得堡建一座工厂。你知道要花多长时间吗？两年。现在还没完工。谁能在俄罗斯经营一座成功的工厂？你告诉我，我还想知道呢。
郭台铭的总结是：在印度、巴西和俄罗斯，工厂对内需是完全没问题的，但我认为在今后20年，不会有谁能成为中国作为世界主要制造中心的竞争对手。
Jason Dean
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
To hear Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff talk, Terry Gou must be a big fan of Brazil as a manufacturing base. If that's the case, though, the Foxconn chief has had a pretty radical change of heart.
Ms. Rousseff, in Beijing for a state visit to China, said Tuesday that Foxconnâ 'trade name for Hon Hai Precision Industry, the Taiwanese electronics giant that Mr. Gou founded and runsâ 'is considering investing $12 billion in Latin America's biggest economy.
Hon Hai is, of course, the contract manufacturer of ubiquitous gadgets like Apple's iPads and iPhones, so it's no wonder the comment drew notice. Even for Mr. Gou's company, which analysts estimate booked more than $100 billion in revenue last year, $12 billion in Brazil is a lot.
Hon Hai was clearly caught off guard. It took the company most of Wednesday to come up with a 160-word statement (see below) that praised Brazil's potential and its strategic location and spoke vaguely about exploring further investment opportunities there. That's not surprising: Brazil is a big market and Hon Hai already has a factory thereâ 'as it does in Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Russia, Turkey, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, the U.S., Mexico, and, of course, China, where Hon Hai and its affiliates employee nearly a million workers.
But it's fair to say that, at least as of late last year, Mr. Gouâ 'a blunt-spoken 60-year-oldâ 'was less than enamored of Brazil's qualifications as a major manufacturing hub. In September, during a nearly three-hour interview with The Wall Street Journal at Hon Hai's enormous factory complex in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen, Mr. Gou ridiculed the notion that Brazil could in any way rival China's strength in manufacturing:
Then there's Brazil. Brazilian workers' wages are very high. But Brazilians, as soon as they hear 'soccer,' they stop working. And there's all the dancing. It's crazy… So Brazil is okay [as a place to manufacture] for the local market. Brazil has great minerals. And it's got the great Amazon river, so it has good hydropower. But if you want to ship things to the U.S., it takes more time and more money to ship from Brazil (than from China).
To be fair to Brazil, it wasn't the only country whose workforce failed to impress Mr. Gou. The discussion during that part of the interview was about speculation that rising costs were causing China to lose its edge as the world's factory floor to other developing countries. Mr. Gou, who is possibly the world's No. 1 expert on manufacturing in China, dismissed that notion, saying he was betting billions of dollars on inland China as an alternative to the traditional coastal manufacturing locales like Shenzhen.
Mr. Gou on India:
India 口 is that a good place to put a factory?… India has its problems… Its wealth gap is bigger than China's. It has a higher Gini index than China. Can you say India is a country? Every region has its own tax laws. It's like the U.S. before the republic was established… So if India wanted to become a factory for the world, the software is okay, [but] the hardware will take time. I think at least 20 years… And India's wages are also rising fast. Now everyone has the Internet. Whatever money Chinese workers make, Indian workers want to make the same amount. So what does China have to fear?
â ¦And on Russia:
In Chengdu, I signed a deal in July. They'll finish in October building the first section, which comprises eight buildings… Three months! In St. Petersburg we're building a factory. You know how long that takes? Two years. And they're not finished yet. Who can run a successful factory in Russia? You let me know. I want to learn from him.'
Mr. Gou's conclusion: 'India, Brazil, Russia, factories there are all good for domestic consumption,' but 'I think in China in the next 20 years won't have a competitor' as the world's main manufacturing center.
Jason Dean
Ms. Rousseff, in Beijing for a state visit to China, said Tuesday that Foxconnâ 'trade name for Hon Hai Precision Industry, the Taiwanese electronics giant that Mr. Gou founded and runsâ 'is considering investing $12 billion in Latin America's biggest economy.
Hon Hai is, of course, the contract manufacturer of ubiquitous gadgets like Apple's iPads and iPhones, so it's no wonder the comment drew notice. Even for Mr. Gou's company, which analysts estimate booked more than $100 billion in revenue last year, $12 billion in Brazil is a lot.
Hon Hai was clearly caught off guard. It took the company most of Wednesday to come up with a 160-word statement (see below) that praised Brazil's potential and its strategic location and spoke vaguely about exploring further investment opportunities there. That's not surprising: Brazil is a big market and Hon Hai already has a factory thereâ 'as it does in Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Russia, Turkey, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, the U.S., Mexico, and, of course, China, where Hon Hai and its affiliates employee nearly a million workers.
But it's fair to say that, at least as of late last year, Mr. Gouâ 'a blunt-spoken 60-year-oldâ 'was less than enamored of Brazil's qualifications as a major manufacturing hub. In September, during a nearly three-hour interview with The Wall Street Journal at Hon Hai's enormous factory complex in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen, Mr. Gou ridiculed the notion that Brazil could in any way rival China's strength in manufacturing:
Then there's Brazil. Brazilian workers' wages are very high. But Brazilians, as soon as they hear 'soccer,' they stop working. And there's all the dancing. It's crazy… So Brazil is okay [as a place to manufacture] for the local market. Brazil has great minerals. And it's got the great Amazon river, so it has good hydropower. But if you want to ship things to the U.S., it takes more time and more money to ship from Brazil (than from China).
To be fair to Brazil, it wasn't the only country whose workforce failed to impress Mr. Gou. The discussion during that part of the interview was about speculation that rising costs were causing China to lose its edge as the world's factory floor to other developing countries. Mr. Gou, who is possibly the world's No. 1 expert on manufacturing in China, dismissed that notion, saying he was betting billions of dollars on inland China as an alternative to the traditional coastal manufacturing locales like Shenzhen.
Mr. Gou on India:
India 口 is that a good place to put a factory?… India has its problems… Its wealth gap is bigger than China's. It has a higher Gini index than China. Can you say India is a country? Every region has its own tax laws. It's like the U.S. before the republic was established… So if India wanted to become a factory for the world, the software is okay, [but] the hardware will take time. I think at least 20 years… And India's wages are also rising fast. Now everyone has the Internet. Whatever money Chinese workers make, Indian workers want to make the same amount. So what does China have to fear?
â ¦And on Russia:
In Chengdu, I signed a deal in July. They'll finish in October building the first section, which comprises eight buildings… Three months! In St. Petersburg we're building a factory. You know how long that takes? Two years. And they're not finished yet. Who can run a successful factory in Russia? You let me know. I want to learn from him.'
Mr. Gou's conclusion: 'India, Brazil, Russia, factories there are all good for domestic consumption,' but 'I think in China in the next 20 years won't have a competitor' as the world's main manufacturing center.
Jason Dean
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