近
幾週日圓穩步且令人不安地上漲﹐一個普遍的解釋是：這是中國搗的鬼。中國一直在穩定地購買日本國債﹐提升了日圓計價資產的相對價值。有看法認為﹐中國這一日益強大的亞洲巨人正在戲弄日本這一長期以來的敵人﹐想要搞砸日本經濟﹐在中國聲明對有糾紛領土具有主權之際﹐上述解釋使這一看法更加吸引眼球。或許情況並不是這樣
日本財務省週五公佈的一份報告顯示﹐8月份中國實際拋售了2萬億日圓(合240億美元)﹐基本上拋售了今年前七個月買入的2.3萬億日圓中的多數。
匯市走勢很快轉向﹐匯市交易員對夏末拋售的滯後消息作出了反應﹐早盤時美元上漲﹐日圓下跌﹐1美元從兌82.25日圓微幅升至82.50日圓﹐不過稍後美元反轉下挫﹐因更廣泛的趨勢是維持日圓升勢﹐因市場言論說美國將執行定量寬鬆政策（增加貨幣供應量）﹐而且日本經常項目持續出現盈餘。
今年初中國買入日圓的速度是此前任何一年的五倍。當這一趨勢明顯的時候﹐經濟學家臆測﹐中國在開始將其2.5萬億美元外匯儲備多元化﹐減少美國國債持有量﹐轉而買入日圓等其他貨幣。
中國買入日圓﹐也引起本已在努力打壓強勢日圓的日本政界人士的憂慮。中國買入日圓被視為推動日圓匯率上漲的一個因素﹐部分是因為這激勵了其他投資者跟風買入日圓。
此時正值中日兩國就撞船事件、大熊貓死亡和其他外交糾紛鬧得不可開交之際﹐中國買入日圓讓事態更是雪上加霜。
但剎那之間﹐似乎中國在賣出日圓。
但週五的報告較提供的答案引起了人們更多質疑：一個問題是：過去幾週中國一直在做什麼？買入還是在賣出日圓？
第二個問題：如果中國沒有幫助推升日圓匯率﹐是否還有其他一些未被注意的因素？如果沒有中國的因素﹐那麼日圓匯率在8月份是否會更強勁？
Alex Frangos
（本文版權歸道瓊斯公司所有﹐未經許可不得翻譯或轉載。）
As the Japanese yen was climbing steadily and uncomfortably in recent weeks, one common explanation emerged: It was China's fault.
Beijing was steadily buying up Japanese bonds, raising the relative value of the yen-denominated assets. It added a delicious twist to the notion that the ascendant Asian giant was toying with its longtime rival, screwing up the economy while challenging territorial claims.
Or maybe not.
A Japanese Finance Ministry report released Friday showed that China actually sold 2 trillion yen ($24 billion) in August, essentially dumping most of the 2.3 trillion in yen it had purchases in the previous seven months of the year.
It was a quick reversal, and currency traders responded to the time-lagged news of the late-summer sale by giving the dollar a morning bump against the yen. The dollar rose a touch to 82.50 from 82.25 -- though it later reverted lower as the larger trends boosting the yen took hold, namely talk of quantitative easing (i.e., money printing) in the U.S., and Japan's persistent current account surplus.
China accumulated yen earlier in the year at a pace five times what it had in any previous year. When that trend became apparent, economists speculated that this was the beginning of China's move to diversify its $2.5 trillion currency reserves away from dollar Treasurys and into other currencies such as the yen.
China's purchases also raised concerns among Japanese politicians already struggling to fight a persistently strong yen. China's buying of yen was seen as a contributing factor to the yen's rise, partly because it encouraged other investors to follow suit.
Coming as it did with the fanfare surrounding the fishing boat captain controversy, a dead pandaand other diplomatic tussles, the yen purchases were just one more thing to worry about
But in one fell swoop, it seems China pulled out.
Friday's report, however, raises more questions than it answers. One: What has China been doing over the past five weeks? Buying or selling yen?
Two: If China wasn't helping the yen's rise, was there some other unnoticed factor? Would the yen have been even stronger in August if it weren't for China?
Alex Frangos
Beijing was steadily buying up Japanese bonds, raising the relative value of the yen-denominated assets. It added a delicious twist to the notion that the ascendant Asian giant was toying with its longtime rival, screwing up the economy while challenging territorial claims.
Or maybe not.
A Japanese Finance Ministry report released Friday showed that China actually sold 2 trillion yen ($24 billion) in August, essentially dumping most of the 2.3 trillion in yen it had purchases in the previous seven months of the year.
It was a quick reversal, and currency traders responded to the time-lagged news of the late-summer sale by giving the dollar a morning bump against the yen. The dollar rose a touch to 82.50 from 82.25 -- though it later reverted lower as the larger trends boosting the yen took hold, namely talk of quantitative easing (i.e., money printing) in the U.S., and Japan's persistent current account surplus.
China accumulated yen earlier in the year at a pace five times what it had in any previous year. When that trend became apparent, economists speculated that this was the beginning of China's move to diversify its $2.5 trillion currency reserves away from dollar Treasurys and into other currencies such as the yen.
China's purchases also raised concerns among Japanese politicians already struggling to fight a persistently strong yen. China's buying of yen was seen as a contributing factor to the yen's rise, partly because it encouraged other investors to follow suit.
Coming as it did with the fanfare surrounding the fishing boat captain controversy, a dead pandaand other diplomatic tussles, the yen purchases were just one more thing to worry about
But in one fell swoop, it seems China pulled out.
Friday's report, however, raises more questions than it answers. One: What has China been doing over the past five weeks? Buying or selling yen?
Two: If China wasn't helping the yen's rise, was there some other unnoticed factor? Would the yen have been even stronger in August if it weren't for China?
Alex Frangos
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