2010年10月8日

IMF年会在即 汇率之争矛头仍指向中国 IMF tensions focus on Chinese currency

 

周五,汇率问题引发的紧张局势仍在延续:各国财长齐聚华盛顿出席国际货币基金组织(IMF)年会,一位欧洲政策制定者对美元疲软发出抱怨,日本则否认自己在操纵日元汇率。各方围绕汇率的争论集中人民币问题上,北京方面仍在通过干预汇市来压低人民币汇率。不过,美联储(Fed)重启定量宽松的前景已导致美元兑其它货币走低。

美元兑日元触及15年低点——尽管日本央行(BoJ)本周表示将进一步放松货币政策后,日元曾出现短暂下跌。周五,欧元区各国财长组成的欧元集团(Eurogroup)主席让-克劳德•容克(Jean-Claude Juncker)表示,欧元兑美元汇率过于强劲。他说:“我不认为目前美元汇率与基本面相符。”

日本央行本周宣布,它将奉行更加宽松的货币政策。但与各方对美联储将再次向市场注入更多美元的猜测相比,日本央行声明的份量相对较小。

总体上说,组成七国集团(G7)的各富国不愿就汇率失调相互指责,而是把批评火力集中在中国身上。G7会议定于周五晚召开。

本周早些时候,美国财长蒂姆•盖特纳(Tim Geithner)拒绝批评日本上月干预汇市压低日元的行动。东京方面将那次干预描绘成对无序市场展开的一次稳定行动。

日本财务大臣野田佳彦(Yoshihiko Noda)昨日表示,那次干预“旨在抑制汇率过度波动,而不是为了引导[日元汇率]走向某个长期目标价位”。

看上去,汇率问题很可能会成为下月在韩国召开的20国集团(G20)峰会的主导议题。英国财政大臣乔治•奥斯本(George Osborne)周五表示:“我们确实需要走向更加市场化的、反映基本面的汇率机制,G20和IMF应该发挥作用、帮助实现这一目标。”

G20已要求IMF评估其成员国的经济政策、以及它们将如何促进全球经济恢复平衡。本周早些时候,IMF总裁尼克•斯特劳斯-卡恩(Dominique Strauss-Kahn)表示,该组织已阅览过的各份计划草案并不相互抵触,但不少国家都过于乐观,认为自己可能无需调整政策就可实现内需增长。

由于日元近几周来重启升势,日本政府已发出警告称,它将再次进行干预。对日元走强的一种解释是,中国购买日本国债和其它日元资产的行动正在帮助推高日元汇率。

然而,日本财务省周五披露的数据显示,今年大举买入创纪录数额日本国债的中国,在8月份净卖出了2.02万亿日元(合240亿美元)短期日本国债。

译者/汪洋

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034925

 

 

Tension over currencies continued on Friday as ministers assembled for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Washington, with a European policymaker complaining about the weak dollar and Japan denying it was manipulating its currency. The debate on currencies has focused on the Chinese exchange rate, which Beijing continues to hold down by intervening in the currency markets. But the prospect of renewed quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve has weakened the dollar against other currencies.

The dollar has hit a 15-year low against the yen despite a short-lived fall in the Japanese currency after the Bank of Japan signalled this week that it would further ease monetary policy. On Friday, Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the eurogroup of finance ministers, said the euro was too strong against the US currency. “I don’t think the dollar is in line with fundamentals,” he said.

The Bank of Japan’s announcement this week that it would pursue weaker monetary policy appears to have been outweighed by speculation that the Fed will return to pushing more dollars out into the markets.

In general, the rich countries that make up the Group of Seven economies, due to meet on Friday evening, have focused their criticism on China and declined to blame each other for misalignments in currencies.

Earlier this week Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, declined to criticise Japan for its intervention against the yen last month, which Tokyo has portrayed as a stabilisation of disorderly markets.

Yesterday Yoshihiko Noda, Japanese finance minister, said the intervention was “aimed at curbing excessive foreign exchange movements, not meant to guide [the yen] to a certain level over the long term”.

The currencies issue seems likely to dominate next month’s meeting of heads of government of the G20 countries, meeting in South Korea. George Osborne, UK chancellor of the exchequer, said on Friday: “We do need to move towards more market- oriented exchange rates that reflect fundamentals, and the G20 and IMF have a role in helping make that come about.”

The G20 has asked the IMF to assess its member countries’ economic policies and how they will contribute to global rebalancing. Earlier this week Dominique Strauss-Kahn, IMF managing director, said the draft plans the fund had seen were not inconsistent with each other, but that many countries were over-optimistic about the domestic demand growth they were likely to achieve without changes in policies.

As the yen has resumed its rise in recent weeks, Japan’s government has warned it would intervene again. One theory behind the yen’s strength is Chinese purchase of Japanese government bonds and other yen assets is contributing to its appreciation.

However, the finance ministry on Friday revealed that China, which has amassed a record amount of Japanese government bonds this year, was a net seller of Y2,020bn ($24bn) in short-term Japanese bills in August.

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034925/en

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