一
项新报告显示，中国即将超过日本，成为继美国之后在研发方面支出排全球第二的国家，使世界主要经济大国间的较量出现重大转变。据巴特尔纪念研究所（Battelle Memorial Institute）数据，2011年中国将在研发方面支出1,537亿美元，高于今年的1,414亿美元。相较之下，日本明年料支出1,441亿美元，高于2010年的1,420亿美元。巴特尔纪念研究所是一家为政府和行业进行科学研究的非盈利组织。
尽管中国研发支出增长，但美国到目前为止仍是研发支出最多的国家，占全球研发总支出的三分之一。
巴特尔纪念研究所资深研究员兼该报告的作者之一格鲁伯（Martin Grueber）说，数年来中国一直在（研发支出方面）保持这种增长，无论全球经济周期出现什么情况，他们都坚持这样做。该报告发表在《研发杂志》（R&D Magazine）上。
例如，中国在2009年持续推进研发行动，当年美国和其他许多发达国家为应对经济放缓，纷纷削减了研发支出。
2010年，全球经济增长回升，而且可能将持续下去。据巴特尔报告说，明年全球总体研发支出预计增长3.6%，至近1.2万亿美元。
美国情况比较复杂。2010年美国研发支出增长3.2%至3,958亿美元，预计明年温和增长2.4%，部分反映联邦研发基金可能减少。
研发基金减少的影响被此前政府奖励的刺激基金支持的2011年研发支出所部分抵消。如果没有刺激效应，另外再考虑通胀因素，那么明年美国研发支出实际上料将下降。
目前美国企业在研发方面的支出更多了，因为经济衰退的最坏影响似乎已过去，但仍低于长期研发支出比率。
格鲁伯说，以最好的情况来说，整体研发支出比率应高于5%，甚至高于7%。他估计2011年美国企业实际研发支出增长率将接近3.3%。
就单个企业来说，情况各不相同。英特尔（Intel Corp.）和思科（Cisco Systems Inc.）在2009年前九个月较2008年同期大幅减少研发支出，但2010年前九个月较上年同期又大幅增加研发支出。
微软（Microsoft Corp.）、IBM和强生（Johnson & Johnson）在2009年前九个月纷纷较2008年同期减少了研发支出，但在2010年前九个月又微幅提高了支出。
尽管中国整体研发支出仍远低于美国，但中国在某些前沿领域的投入，比如替代能源、生命科学和高级材料方面，则齐头并进。而美国和日本的大量研发与汽车等老产业相关。
Gautam Naik
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
China is on the verge of overtaking Japan as the second-biggest spender on research and development after the U.S., marking another key shift in the rivalry between the world's economic powerhouses, a new report shows.
China is expected to spend $153.7 billion on R&D in 2011, up from the $141.4 billion it will spend this year, according to Battelle Memorial Institute, a nonprofit that does scientific research for the government and industry. By comparison, Japan is expected to spend $144.1 billion next year, up from $142 billion in 2010.
Despite China's surge, the U.S. remains by far the biggest R&D spender, making up one-third of the global total.
'China has sustained this kind of growth [in R&D spending] for a number of years and they're sticking to it regardless of what's going on in the global economic cycle,' said Martin Grueber, senior researcher at Battelle and co-author of the report, which is published in R&D magazine.
For example, China continued to make a sustained R&D push in 2009, a year when the U.S. and many other advanced countries cut back in response to recessionary times.
In 2010, growth worldwide rebounded, and it is likely to be sustained. Total global spending on R&D in the coming year is forecast to rise 3.6% to nearly $1.2 trillion, according to the Battelle report.
The U.S. picture is mixed. In 2010, U.S. R&D spending rose 3.2% to $395.8 billion. It is expected to grow a modest 2.4% next year, partly reflecting a likely decline in federal R&D funding.
The impact of this decline is partly offset by R&D spending in 2011 resulting from previously awarded government stimulus funding. Without that stimulus effect, and after accounting for inflation, U.S. R&D spending is forecast to actually show a decline next year.
American corporations are spending more on R&D now that the worst of the recession's effects appear to have passed. But they're still below the longer-term historic R&D spending rate.
'In a perfect world, the industry rate would be greater than 5% or even 7%,' said Mr. Grueber. He estimates that the actual R&D growth rate figure for the U.S. corporate sector in 2011 will be closer to 3.3%.
Among individual companies, the picture varies. Intel Corp. (INTC) and Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) cut R&D spending significantly in the first nine months of 2009 versus the same period in 2008. But they increased their spending significantly in the first nine months of 2010 compared with the equivalent period in 2009.
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) each cut R&D spending in the first nine months of 2009 when compared with the same period in 2008, but raised their spending slightly in the first nine months of 2010.
While China's overall R&D spending is still far behind that of the U.S., China is making a concerted push in certain cutting-edge areas--such as alternative energy, life sciences and advance materials--while the U.S. and Japan have a good chunk of their R&D tied up in older fields, such as the automotive industry.
Gautam Naik
China is expected to spend $153.7 billion on R&D in 2011, up from the $141.4 billion it will spend this year, according to Battelle Memorial Institute, a nonprofit that does scientific research for the government and industry. By comparison, Japan is expected to spend $144.1 billion next year, up from $142 billion in 2010.
Despite China's surge, the U.S. remains by far the biggest R&D spender, making up one-third of the global total.
'China has sustained this kind of growth [in R&D spending] for a number of years and they're sticking to it regardless of what's going on in the global economic cycle,' said Martin Grueber, senior researcher at Battelle and co-author of the report, which is published in R&D magazine.
For example, China continued to make a sustained R&D push in 2009, a year when the U.S. and many other advanced countries cut back in response to recessionary times.
In 2010, growth worldwide rebounded, and it is likely to be sustained. Total global spending on R&D in the coming year is forecast to rise 3.6% to nearly $1.2 trillion, according to the Battelle report.
The U.S. picture is mixed. In 2010, U.S. R&D spending rose 3.2% to $395.8 billion. It is expected to grow a modest 2.4% next year, partly reflecting a likely decline in federal R&D funding.
The impact of this decline is partly offset by R&D spending in 2011 resulting from previously awarded government stimulus funding. Without that stimulus effect, and after accounting for inflation, U.S. R&D spending is forecast to actually show a decline next year.
American corporations are spending more on R&D now that the worst of the recession's effects appear to have passed. But they're still below the longer-term historic R&D spending rate.
'In a perfect world, the industry rate would be greater than 5% or even 7%,' said Mr. Grueber. He estimates that the actual R&D growth rate figure for the U.S. corporate sector in 2011 will be closer to 3.3%.
Among individual companies, the picture varies. Intel Corp. (INTC) and Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) cut R&D spending significantly in the first nine months of 2009 versus the same period in 2008. But they increased their spending significantly in the first nine months of 2010 compared with the equivalent period in 2009.
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) each cut R&D spending in the first nine months of 2009 when compared with the same period in 2008, but raised their spending slightly in the first nine months of 2010.
While China's overall R&D spending is still far behind that of the U.S., China is making a concerted push in certain cutting-edge areas--such as alternative energy, life sciences and advance materials--while the U.S. and Japan have a good chunk of their R&D tied up in older fields, such as the automotive industry.
Gautam Naik
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